Do job fairs matter?

Transcription

1 Do job fairs matter? Experimental evidence from the rural Philippines Emily A. Beam National University of Singapore ADB-3ie: Making Impact Evaluation Matter 04 September 2014 Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 1 / 31

2 Motivation Policymakers aim to improve job seekers information and employment outcomes through employment services: labor market information and job-search assistance (Betcherman, Olivas, and Dar 2004) Job fairs common in developing and developed countries In the Philippines, a key tool to help Filipinos find work domestically and overseas - more than 400 sponsored fairs per year Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 2 / 31

3 Research questions How does attending a job fair affect... Labor market expectations? Job-search decisions and employment outcomes? Direct impact: individuals go to fair, get jobs Indirect impact: attendance affects labor market outcomes through information, networking, priming Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 3 / 31

4 Motivation Despite their frequency, no evidence on impact of job fairs Limited empirical evidence on how labor market exposure affect expectations & behavior: Extensive theoretical literature (Rothschild 1974, Burdett and Vishwanath 1988, Gonzalez and Shi 2010; Huffman, Sunde, and Falk 2006a) Labor market expectations affect individuals search and employment behavior (Stephens 2004, Diagne 2010) Direct provision of labor-market information can influence expectations (Dammert, Galdo, Galdo 2013) Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 4 / 31

5 Research design Field experiment in Sorsogon Province, Philippines Coordinate with municipality to sponsor job fair for overseas work Generate exogenous variation in job-search experience using encouragement design Use IV to estimate causal impact of job-fair attendance on migration and labor market outcomes Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 5 / 31

6 Summary of results Job fairs directly affect labor market expectations: discourages men, encourages women No impact on migration in medium run, can t rule out longer-run impacts Labor-market exposure matters: regardless of change in beliefs, people invest more in domestic labor market Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 6 / 31

7 Context More than 2.2 million workers leave the Philippines each year to begin temporary work contracts (POEA 2013) Overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) more than $25 billion annually, nearly 10% of GDP (BSP 2014) 92 percent of new, pre-arranged contracts processed through formal recruitment agencies Typical contract lasts two years Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 7 / 31

8 Context: Job fairs Job fairs are an important policy tool in the Philippines (Esguerra et al. 2001) 400+ fairs/year sponsored by government and educational institutions Local public employment offices mandated to promote employment through job fairs and related recruitment activities For overseas work, primary way for recruitment agencies to reach rural applicants Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 8 / 31

9 Context Bulan, Sorsogon Province Bulan to Manila 575 km 12-hour bus ride Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 9 / 31

10 Context Sorsogon Province: relatively poor, rural province - 31% of families below poverty line of $US 360/year (NCSB 2009) Bulan: Large municipality (population 92,000) High internal migration: 39% of respondents worked in Manila before High interest in overseas migration, limited experience: <30% ever applied for work abroad, 14% have ever attended a job fair for overseas work Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 10 / 31

11 Research design: Baseline survey Baseline sample of 865 individuals from 94 neighborhoods; use 862 with no missing key covariates Randomly selected from barangay rosters provided by captains Target five men and five women per neighborhood - equal representation by gender Respondents must be ages 20-35, report a cell phone number, and have not worked abroad previously Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 11 / 31

12 Intervention: Job-fair attendance Randomly chosen respondents (from 1/3 of neighborhoods) offered voucher Exchange voucher for a P150 gift certificate to Jollibee at two-day job fair ($US3.42, or meal for family of four) All respondents invited to fair, receive two reminder text messages Respondents must sign in at attendance booth and voucher booth, typical of other fairs Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 12 / 31

13 Research design: Bulan Job Fair, 2011 All survey respondents invited to attend Measure attendance at local job fair for overseas work Job fair co-sponsored with municipal government, advertised broadly 767 attendees, 29% are survey respondents Participants at job fair Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 13 / 31

14 Data: Follow-up survey description Survey conducted January-March 2012 Follow-up sample of 663 (77%) Followed up with 835 respondents (97%), migration outcomes for 861 Proxy surveys conducted when respondent could not be interviewed (17%) No evidence of differential attrition Results robust to including proxy surveys Sample Size Attrition Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 14 / 31

15 Selected descriptive statistics Control Voucher All Men Women All Men Women Baseline Characteristics (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Age (mean) Married High school or greater College graduate * 0.17 Working at baseline Monthly income (,000 pesos) Strong interest, work abroad ** 0.19** 0.21 Plan to apply abroad * 0.28** 0.26 Currently has passport * Ever applied abroad Any family ever abroad Joint F-test statistic p-value Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 15 / 31

16 Impact on labor market perceptions Impact of voucher on job-fair attendance Attend job fair Search intensely (1) (2) (3) (4) Voucher 0.379*** 0.391*** 0.104*** 0.116*** [0.042] [0.040] [0.030] [0.029] Observations Dependent mean, control 11.9% 9.8% Individual covariates NO YES NO YES *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10 Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 16 / 31

17 Impact on labor market perceptions IV impact of job-fair attendance Attend ij = α + bv oucher j + +X iγ + S ijψ + ɛ ij (1) Y ij = a + βattend ij + X id + S ijp + v ij (2) where Attend ij is binary indicator of whether individual i in neighborhood j attends the job fair V oucher j is excluded instrument First-stage F-statistic = strong for men and women ˆβ is the local average treatment effect (LATE) of job-fair attendance on Y ij : impact of attending fair among those induced to attend. Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 17 / 31

18 Impact on labor market perceptions Job fair affects overseas expectations Likelihood Likelihood Likeliest Minimum Strong job offer, deploy, wage acceptable interest if apply if offer abroad wage abroad (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Panel A: All Attend job fair * 8.588** [4.221] [5.437] [3.700] [3.500] [0.043] Observations Dep. Mean, Control % Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 18 / 31

19 Impact on labor market perceptions Attending job fair affects beliefs about job-finding Fraction Fraction Control, men Voucher, men Likelihood offered job abroad if applied, endline Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 19 / 31

20 Impact on labor market perceptions Attending job fair affects beliefs about job-finding Fraction Fraction Control, women Voucher, women Likelihood offered job abroad if applied, endline Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 20 / 31

21 Impact on labor market perceptions Job fair affects overseas expectations Likelihood Likelihood Likeliest Minimum Strong job offer, deploy, wage acceptable interest if apply if offer abroad wage abroad (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Panel B: Men Attend job fair ** * [9.984] [10.827] [3.971] [4.621] [0.085] Observations Dep. Mean, Control % Panel C: Women Attend job fair ** * *** [5.976] [7.107] [4.636] [4.139] [0.048] Observations Dep. Mean, Control % Attend m = Attend w (p-val.) 0.002*** Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 21 / 31

22 Impact on labor market perceptions Women relatively more qualified for work abroad than men Density Share of overseas jobs respondent is eligible (2-digit ISOC) Men Women Predicted share of workabroad.ph jobs potentially eligible, by education, gender, work experience Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 22 / 31

23 Impact on labor market perceptions No medium-run effect on migration Only 0.58% (5/861) respondents have migrated 10 months later. Consistent with other work finding migration process is slow, with many reinforcing barriers (Beam, McKenzie, Yang 2014). No evidence that job-fair leads people to take steps to migrate. Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 23 / 31

24 Impact on labor market perceptions No medium-run effect on migration Looked for work Plan to look Have abroad, last for work abroad, current ten months next six months passport (1) (2) (3) Panel A: All Attend job fair [0.021] [0.069] [0.037] Observations Dep. Mean, Control 1.3% 19.2% 6.9% Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 24 / 31

25 Impact on labor market perceptions No medium-run effect on steps to migration Looked for work Plan to look Have abroad, last for work abroad, current ten months next six months passport (1) (2) (3) Panel B: Men Attend job fair *** [0.038] [0.138] [0.072] Observations Dependent Mean, Control 1.9% 23.6% 5.3% Panel C: Women Attend job fair [0.019] [0.075] [0.056] Observations Dep. Mean, Control 0.8% 15.4% 8.3% p-value, Attend m = Attend w ** Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 25 / 31

26 Impact on labor market perceptions Job-fair attendance shifts search to Manila Whether look for work in the two months following job fair: Anywhere Inside Outside province province (1) (2) (3) Panel A: All Attend job fair * 0.074** [0.038] [0.025] [0.034] Observations Dep. Mean, Control 4.0% 3.1% 0.9% Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 26 / 31

27 Impact on labor market perceptions Job-fair attendance shifts search to Manila Whether look for work in the two months following job fair: Anywhere Inside Outside province province (1) (2) (3) Panel B: Men Attend job fair * [0.070] [0.028] [0.063] Observations Dependent Mean, Control 3.4% 1.9% 1.0% Panel C: Women Attend job fair [0.043] [0.038] [0.034] Observations Dep. Mean, Control 4.6% 4.2% 0.8% p-value, Attend m = Attend w Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 27 / 31

28 Impact on labor market outcomes Job-fair attendance increases formal sector employment Whether working at endline: Any Formal Informal Self-employment (1) (2) (3) (4) Panel A: All Attend job fair ** ** [0.083] [0.052] [0.072] [0.078] Observations Dep. Mean, control 49.8% 7.8% 13.4% 28.6% Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 28 / 31

29 Impact on labor market outcomes Job-fair attendance increases formal sector employment Whether working at endline: Any Formal Informal Self-emp. (1) (2) (3) (4) Panel B: Men Attend job fair * * [0.135] [0.111] [0.177] [0.161] Observations Dep. Mean, Control 72.1% 8.2% 23.6% 40.4% Panel C: Women Attend job fair ** *** [0.102] [0.058] [0.072] [0.076] Observations Dep. Mean, control 30.4% 7.5% 4.6% 18.3% p-value, Attend m = Attend w Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 29 / 31

30 Conclusions Job-fair attendance affects individuals expectations - discourages men, encourages women 10 months not sufficient to detect impacts on migration Other barriers such as credit constraints and bureaucratic barriers may be more important (Bryan et al. 2012, Beam et al. 2014) Attending a job fair has persistent domestic labor market impacts Men and women look for work in Manila Shift from self-employment to formal sector No evidence of stepping stone to overseas work Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 30 / 31

31 Conclusions Policies that promote labor-market exposure can have two distinct effects: Revise individual expectations, which may have longer-run impacts (Stephens 2004, Campbell et al. 2007, Diagne 2010) Exposure affects employment and job search - through social networks, peers, general information, priming Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 31 / 31

32 Poverty incidence 2006 FIES: 43.5 percent of households in Sorsogon Province below poverty line Line calibrated annually, separately by province and rural/urban to reflect minimum income to meet basic needs Rural: P14,191/year ($US ) Urban: P20,083/year ($US ) Average: 15,328/year ($US ) Converted at average 2006 exchange rate of 1 USD PHP Back: Sorsogon Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 1 / 5

33 Sample size and response rates N Share Baseline Follow-up Full Survey Proxy Attrition Deceased Refused Outside municipal Moved w/in Bulan Unlocated Back: Sample Size Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 2 / 5

34 Differential attrition Attrition Proxy Mean SD F-test P-val Mean SD F-test P-val No Information Wage Info Qualification Info No Voucher Voucher Observations Back: Sample Size Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 3 / 5

35 Descriptive statistics: 1/2 No Info. Qual. Info. Wage Info. Female Age (mean) ** 26.4* Married ** 51.4 HS Only Some college or vocational College graduate Mean household income (thousands) Ever worked in Manila Interested in working abroad Any family abroad since N Back: Sample Size Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 4 / 5

36 Descriptive statistics: 2/2 No Voucher Voucher Female Age (mean) Married HS Only Some college or vocational College graduate Mean household income (thousands) Ever worked in Manila Interested in working abroad ** Any family abroad since N Back: Sample Size Emily Beam: National University of Singapore Do job fairs matter? 5 / 5