Phil Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman and Pete Boden

Transcription

1 School of Geography A Population Projection Model For Ethnic Groups Specification for a Multi-Country, Multi-Zone and Multi-Group Model for the United Kingdom Phil Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman and Pete Boden International Conference of Effects of Migrations on Population Structures in Europe, Vienna 1. December 28 ESRC Research Award RES , What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and s for UK local areas

2 Outline School of Geography background Aims To project the ethnic populations of local areas (authorities) in the UK over the next 5 years (project) To explain the model design being developed (presentation) To describe one of the important inputs to the model our ethnic mortality estimates Part One (Phil Rees) The model State space of model Accounting framework Model structure Internal migration model Part Two (Pia Wohland) Ethnic mortality estimation The relationship between illness and age All group illness and mortality Ethnic group illness The estimates of ethnic group mortality

3 Review of models School of Geography background Population models: Single region models (POPGROUP) Multi-region models (SPA, ABM, LIPRO, UKPOP) ONS sub-national model (SNPP) GLA London Boroughs model Nested multi-region models (MULTIPOLES) Ethnic population models Single region models (Rees & Parsons 26: UK regions, Coleman and Scherbov: UK, Coleman 26 on European models) Mixture models (Statistics New Zealand) Biregional models (Wilson: NT Australia)

4 Projection model ingredients School of Geography background PARAMETERS Base year/interval parameters Projection model parameters Projection output parameters INPUT DATA Base Populations Survivorship/non-survivorship probabilities Emigration probabilities Internal migration probabilities Immigration flows Fertility rates Ethnic conversion probabilities PROCESSES Start populations Survival/mortality Emigration Internal migration PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS Survival/mortality Emigration Internal migration Immigration Fertility PROJECTION RESULTS Population Survival/mortality Emigration Internal migration Immigration Fertility Derived components Immigration End populations Fertility Infant components Derived components

5 background State space School of Geography Zones (432) (O origins, D destinations) England 352LAs (City of London with Westminster; Isles of Scilly with Penwith) Wales 22 UAs Scotland 32 CAs Northern Ireland 26 DCs Ages (12 period-cohorts) (A) Bto, to1, 1to2,, 99to1, 1+to11+ (12) Sexes (2) (S) Males, Females Source: Dunnell (27) Ethnic Groups (16) (E) 16 Groups from the 21 Census Time intervals (flexible) (T) ,, 25-6, 26-7,, 25-51

6 Accounting framework for model School of Geography background DESTINATIONS England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Rest of world Deaths Totals City of London and Westminster Isle of Wight Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn Cardiff/Caerdy dd Aberdeen City : West Lothian Derry City : Belfast Start Populations ORIGINS Zone names Zones 1(1) N(1) 1(2) N(2) 1(3) N(3) 1(4) N(4) R D England Wales City of London and Westminster 1(1) SS 1(1)1(1) MS 1(1)N(1) MS 1(1)1(2) MS 1(1)N(2) MS 1(1)1(3) MS 1(1)N(3) MS 1(1)1(4) MS 1(1)N(4) ES 1(1) D 1(1) SP 1(1)*(*) : : : : : ; : ; : : : : Isle of Wight N(1) MS N(1)1(1) SS N(1)N(1) MS N(1)1(2) MS N(1)N(2) MS N(1)1(3) MS N(1)N(3) MS N(1)1(4) MS N(1)N(4) ES N(1) D N(1) SP N(1)*(*) Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn 1(2) MS 1(2)1(1) MS 1(2)N(1) SS 1(2)1(2) MS 1(2)N(2) MS 1(2)1(3) MS 1(2)N(3) MS 1(2)1(4) MS 1(2)N(4) ES 1(2) D 1(2) SP 1(2)*(*) : : : : : : : : : : : : : Cardiff/Caerdydd N(2) MS N(2)1(1) MS N(2)N(1) MS N(2)1(2) SS N(2)N(2) MS N(2)1(3) MS N(2)N(3) MS N(2)1(4) MS N(2)N(4) ES N(2) D N(2) SP N(2)*(*) Scotland Aberdeen City 1(3) MS 1(3)1(1) MS 1(3)N(1) MS 1(3)1(2) MS 1(3)N(2) SS 1(3)1(3) MS 1(3)N(3) MS 1(3)1(4) MS 1(3)N(4) ES 1(3) D 1(3) SP 1(3)*(*) : : : : : : : : : : : : : West Lothian N(3) MS N(3)1(1) MS N(3)N(1) MS N(3)1(2) MS N(3)N(2) MS N(3)1(3) SS N(3)N(3) MS N(3)1(4) MS N(3)N(4) ES N(3) D N(3) SP N(3)*(*) Northern Ireland Derry City 1(4) MS 1(4)1(1) MS 1(4)N(1) MS 1(4)1(2) MS 1(4)N(2) MS 1(4)1(3) MS 1(4)N(3) SS 1(4)1(4) MS 1(4)N(4) ES 1(4) D 1(4) SP 1(4)*(*) : : : : : : : : : : : : : Belfast N(4) MS N(4)1(1) MS N(4)N(1) MS N(4)1(2) MS N(4)N(2) MS N(4)1(3) MS N(4)N(3) MS N(4)1(4) SS N(4)N(4) ES N(4) D N(4) SP N(4)*(*) Rest of world Immigrants R IS 1(1) IS N(1) IS 1(2) IS N(2) IS 1(3) IS N(3) IS 1(4) IS N(4) IS *(*) Totals Populations * FP *(*)1(1) FP *(*)N (1) FP *(*)1(2) FP *(*)N(2) FP *(*)1(3) FP *(*)N(3) FP *(*)1(4) FP *(*)N(4) ES * D * T *(*)*(*)

7 Ethnic specific features School of Geography background Ethnic groups are treated as independent populations Except: There should be mixed births (parents of different ethnicity) [Barrack Obama, Sebastian Coe, Ryan Giggs] because it is the future There should be an opportunity for re-identification. This is more difficult to estimate but we need to introduce it when migrants cross from one home country to another

8 Internal migration model School of Geography background Because there are a huge number of variables involved in internal migration, we will need to simplify things. We cannot estimate the saturated model: O 432 D 432 E 16 S 2 A 12 We will start with an independence model to get the s underway: O D E 18 + S 2 +A 12 We will then adopt a compromise drawing on other work (van Imhoff et al. 1997, Raymer et al. 28, Hussain and Stillwell 28) such as: A 12 S 2 + O 432 D 432 E 7 + E 16 age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity

9 International immigration estimates School of Geography background

10 Background Pia Wohland Introduction-a Ethnic mortality

11 United Kingdom: Background used in estimation or models but no ethnic mortality differences recognised United States: Mortality statistics collected by race 23 life expectancies Introduction-a White men: 75.3 Black men: White women 8.4 Black women 75.9 (US Bureau of the Census) Mortality data by for the UK?

12 Background Self reported illness in Census 21

13 ALL PERSON LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS DATA 21 Census Tables S16,S65 ALL PERSON STANDARDISED ILLNESS RATIOS (SIR) ALL PERSON STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIOS (SMR) Countries & Local Authorities 21, UK Standard 21, UK Standard Countries & Local Authorities Countries & Local Authorities ALL PERSON RESIDENTS DATA 21 Mid year Estimates Countries & Local Authorities ALL PERSONDEATHS DATA 21 Census Tables S16,S65 21 Vital statistics Countries & Local Authorities Countries & Local Authorities RESIDENTS DATA BY ETHNICITY STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIOS BY ETHNICITY 21 Census Tables ST 11, 17, 27, , UK Standard Countries & Local Authorities POPULATION DATA STANDARDISED ILLNESS RATIOS BY ETHNICITY Countries & Local Authorities (SIR) 21, UK Standard LIFE TABLES & SURVIVORSHIP PROBABILITIES BY ETHNICITY 21 (Calendar Year) Countries & Local Authorities LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS BY ETHNICITY 21 Census Tables ST 11, 17, 27, 318 Countries & Local Authorities Countries & Local Authorities

14 All group SMR as a function of SIR Differences between home countries? Background Nation England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland r2 Intercept Females Gender Slope Gender Males r Intercept Slope

15 England all group SMR as a function of SIR: High ethnic minority versus low ethnic minority LAs Male SMR Female SMR Background Female SIR Male SIR Ethnic minorty > 8.2% Ethnic minorty <= 8.2% Fit line for Total. 175.

16 SIR SIR Black Caribbean 11 (m) 122 (f) 25 Chinese 6 (m) 67 (f) 25 Other Ethnic Group 87 (m) 8 (f) 99 (m) 122 (f) 5 Other Black 129 (m) 135 (f) 25 5 Other Asian 15 (m) 119 (f) Indian Bangladeshi 138 (m) 152 (f) White & Black Caribbean 135 (m) 133 (f) Other Mixed 115 (m) 11 (f) 25 5 Black African 83 (m) 98 (f) (m) 83 (f) 5 White & Asian 18 (m) 17 (f) Other White (m) 1 (f) (m) 159 (f) 5 1 White Irish 25 Number of LAs Number of LAs Pakistani 25 White & Black African 121 (m) 117 (f) Number of LAs White British 97 (m) 96 (f) Background Number of LAs Standardized Illness Ratios for in England SIR 25 SIR 25

17 Spatial distribution of female life expectancies at birth Chinese Black African 81.2 to < to < to <78.9 White and Black African Pakistani

18 Concluding Background School of Geography We have outlined the structure of a new model to project ethnic group populations within a multi-country, multi-zone and multigroup framework. This is a work in construction with many missing pieces which will be added as the model is converted into operational software. We have also reported on some progress made in estimating the inputs needed for the model, focussing on one of the needed inputs, ethnic-specific mortality. We have taken on a very challenging task. You may comment we are being over-ambitious. We argue this is an important challenge because we need to know important things about the future society that our children, grandchildren and yet to be born great grandchildren will live in.