Peter Boden. GRO Scotland February 12 th 2009

Transcription

1 Peter Boden GRO Scotland February 12 th 2009 This work is part of ESRC Research Award RES (1/10/07 to 30/9/09) What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas

2 Research Context What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas ESRC Research Award RES , Information on the project:

3 Research Team Phil Rees Paul Norman Peter Boden Research Fellow in the, University of Leeds Director of Edge Analytics Ltd Pia Wohland Information on the project:

4 This presentation 1. Migration Context 2. The development of the Databank (NMD) 3. Patterns and trends in immigration evident from alternative sources 4. Alternative methods for sub-national estimation 5. Future research

5 UK - uncertainty

6 UK Lindsey Oil refinery

7 UK data quality

8 Data Reviews Alternative reviews of migration data sources: Rees, P. and Boden, P. (2006) Estimating London s new migrant population: Stage 1 review of methodology. A Report commissioned by the Greater London Authority for the Mayor of London. Green, A. E., Owen, D. and Adam, D. (2008) A resource guide on local migration statistics. Report prepared for the Local Government Association.

9 Migrant impact Substantial number of studies have supplemented existing statistics with primary data collection, specifically to examine the impact of new migrants upon: Economy The workplace Integration and cohesion Local service provision Some attempts at producing improved migration estimates but generally constrained by sampling difficulties

10 Migrant Impact - Scotland Scotland Summary Coverage Main Secondary Sources Used Primary Data Collection Migrant Employer Service Provider Geography Migrant LFS NINo WRS Migrant Method No. Method No. Method Aberdeen City Council (2007) Migrant worker statistics Aberdeen All Collins (2007) Housing, work and welfare experiences Scotland A8 78 Face-to-face / focus groups Communities Scotland (2006) Fife Research Coordination Gp (2008) Scale, and experiences of migrant workers Migrant worker experiences and needs Tayside All 112 Survey 47 Interview Fife A8 904 Face-to-face Hall Aitken (2007) Migrant profile and experiences Dumfries & Galloway A8 99 Survey / interview 103 Survey Jentsch et al (2007) Migrant workers in rural areas Rural Scotland A8 25 Face-to-face 53 Telephone / focus group de Lima et al (2007) Scale and profile of migrant workers Grampian A8 87 Face-to-face / focus groups 61 Telephone 46 Telephone / focus group Orchard et al (2007) Migrant profile and access to services Edinburgh A8 84 Face-to-face 37 Postal / interview Stevenson (2007) Scale and profile of migrant workers Glasgow A8 262 Various 46 Stirling Council (2007) New migrant statistics Stirling All

11 Purpose: Single view of alternative statistics Clarity of conceptual and measurement differences Framework for analysis of trends and patterns in migration Analysis of short-term and long-term migration measurement Derivation of ethnic-group migration estimates

12 Demonstration

13 WRS A8 migrant flows Source: Accession Monitoring Report, Home Office 2008

14 England new migrant trends England Scotland 700,000 NINO - All GP Regs Census NINO - non-accession TIM - MYE Immig 60,000 NINO - All GP Regs Census NINO - non-accession TIM - MYE Immig 600,000 50, , , ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 0 All data are Crown copyright. Sources: 100% data extract from the National Insurance Recording System (NIRS): ONS Mid-year estimates; GP registration statistics provided by ONS

15 280,000 London 60,000 Yorks & Humb 18,000 North East 60,000 North West 260, ,000 50,000 16,000 14,000 50, , , , ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 40,000 30,000 20, , ,000 10,000 4,000 2,000 10, , ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - West Midlands 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - South West 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - East 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - South East East Midlands Wales 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - All data are Crown copyright. Sources: 100% data extract from the National Insurance Recording System (NIRS): ONS Mid-year estimates; GP registration statistics provided by ONS Scotland 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

16 Scotland North West Glasgow 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 60,000 Scotland 2,000 50, ,000 12,000 Edinburgh 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 10, ,000 0 All data are Crown copyright. Sources: 100% data extract from the National Insurance Recording System (NIRS): ONS Mid-year estimates; GP registration statistics provided by ONS

17 Estimation Methods

18 National Statistics National Statistics Estimates of international migration International Passenger Survey Primary source + Home Office Asylum seekers and dependants + Irish CSO Migration between UK and Irish Republic + Adjustments Visitor switchers & Migrant switchers

19 England & Wales immigration and emigration National Statistics Sub-national immigration estimates International Passenger Survey England & Wales National Statistics Sub-national emigration estimates International Passenger Survey England & Wales IPS/Labour Force Survey GOR / Wales level 10 zones International Passenger Survey GOR / Wales level 10 zones IPS (smoothed) & LFS (London) Intermediate Geography (NMGi) 63 zones IPS (smoothed) Intermediate Geography (NMGo) 44 zones Census 2001 Local Authority District / Unitary Authority 376 zones Propensity to migrate model Local Authority District / Unitary Authority 376 zones

20 Scotland TIM estimated for Scotland used in 2007 mid-year estimates Immigration Immigration flows to NHS Boards (14) are allocated using overseas inflows recorded on the NHSCR Distribution of migrants to Council areas (32) is based on the Community Health Index (CHI) records, controlled to the NHSCR geographic & age / sex distributions Emigration Emigration flows to NHS Boards allocated using averaged proportions based on international inflows, outflows to the rest of the UK and the population size of each Health Board. Distribution of migrants from Council areas was achieved using a combination of inmigrants to Scotland from overseas and migrants leaving Scotland for the rest of the UK.

21 GP Registrations vs TIM estimates South West 16% South East London -13% -9% East of England 1% West Midlands -34% East Midlands 1% Yorkshire and The Humber 16% North West -12% North East 3% England -5% -45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% -ve = TIM<GP regs +ve = TIM>GP regs Three year comparison

22 NMD - Immigration estimation Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 National TIM TIM TIM HESA GOR TIM GP Regs NINo GP regs NMGi TIM GP Regs GP Regs LADUA TIM GP regs GP Regs

23 NMD - Immigration estimation 100% Not stated, 5.8% 100% Not stated, 5.8% 90% Other, 11.5% 90% Other, 11.5% 80% 80% 70% Formal study, 25.5% 70% Formal study, 25.5% 60% 60% 50% Accompany/join, 16.9% 50% Accompany/join, 16.9% 40% 30% Looking for work, 13.0% 40% 30% Looking for work, 13.0% 20% 10% Definite job, 27.2% 20% 10% Definite job, 27.2% 0% 0% HESA NINo GP regs

24 Model Estimation - Regions South West -8,083 South West -19% South East -3,513 South East -4% London 20,334 London 12% East of England -13,584 East of England -23% West Midlands 11,057 West Midlands 33% East Midlands -591 East Midlands -2% Yorkshire & Humber -10,292 Yorkshire & Humber -21% North West 3,644 North West 8% North East 1,027 North East 7% -25,000-15,000-5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 -ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM

25 Model Estimation intermediate geography e.g. Yorkshire & Humber and West Midlands Sheffield/Kirklees + -2,339 Sheffield/Kirklees + -15% Leeds/Bradf/Hgate + -7,644 Leeds/Bradf/Hgate + -30% Hull/York Hull/York + -4% Coventry + 1,787 Coventry + 30% Heref/Worcs/Warks Heref/Worcs/Warks + -6% Staffs/Shrops/Wolv + 4,617 Staffs/Shrops/Wolv + 89% Birmingham + 5,008 Birmingham + 32% -10,000-7,500-5,000-2, ,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 -ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM -100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% -ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM

26 Model estimation Local Authority areas e.g. Yorkshire & Humber North Lincolnshire 491 North Lincolnshire 105% Wakefield 513 Wakefield 48% Selby 86 Selby 38% North East Lincolnshire 121 North East Lincolnshire 25% Rotherham 93 Rotherham 10% Doncaster 111 Doncaster 9% Barnsley 55 Barnsley 8% Kingston upon Hull, City of -149 Kingston upon Hull, City of -5% Bradford -508 Bradford -8% Kirklees -624 Kirklees -21% Scarborough -134 Scarborough -21% York -529 York -21% East Riding of Yorkshire -329 East Riding of Yorkshire -27% Sheffield -2,487 Sheffield -29% Harrogate -706 Harrogate -35% Leeds-4,889 Leeds -36% Calderdale -514 Calderdale -37% Hambleton -200 Hambleton -47% Ryedale -204 Ryedale -48% Craven -205 Craven -50% Richmondshire -284 Richmondshire -58% -5,500-4,500-3,500-2,500-1, ,500 -ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM -80% -55% -30% -5% 20% 45% 70% 95% 120% -ve = Model < TIM +ve = Model > TIM

27 Estimation Summary For estimation purposes, trying to make maximum use of most appropriate dataset at each level Sample sources are subject to error at smaller spatial scales Census data is not appropriate for sub-national distribution given the demographic changes since 2001 There are inconsistencies in current methods of sub-national estimation that are evident when compared to alternative administrative datasets Administrative datasets provide a robust alternative for distribution of subnational immigration (the Scottish model)

28 Ongoing Research Working towards alternative estimates of migration at all levels Continued development of the NMD New data as it becomes available Scottish datasets? Development of the analysis of short-term migration and emigration

29 End Information on the project: