Welcome! Dr. Lewis Gale Dean, Eberhardt School of Business University of the Pacific. Todd E. Heintz Senior Vice President, JP Morgan Chase Bank
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1 Follow on Twitter at: #stateofnsjv2015
2 Welcome! Dr. Lewis Gale Dean, Eberhardt School of Business University of the Pacific Todd E. Heintz Senior Vice President, JP Morgan Chase Bank #stateofnsjv2015
3 What is the North San Joaquin Valley Region? Why is it Important? Dr. Jeffrey Michael Director, CBPR Eberhardt Sch. Of Business University of the Pacific #stateofnsjv2015
4
5 In 2013, the Federal Government added San Joaquin County to the San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland Combined Statistical Area due to growing economic integration.
6 The North San Joaquin Valley is a core part of the Northern California Megaregion.
7 North San Joaquin Valley Regional Assessment Economic Integration with Northern California is very significant and growing But Socio-Economic differences are substantial. Economic integration with Central/South SJ Valley is low. But Socio-economically similar. The NSJV is a unique and distinct economic region. Opportunities for Greater Regional Action Regional Identity, Marketing to External Audiences Infrastructure Planning (e.g. rail, airports) Education and Workforce Development
8 The 2015 NSJV Index Economy People Place Dr. Jeffrey Michael Director, CBPR Eberhardt Sch. Of Business University of the Pacific #stateofnsjv2015
9 Job Growth Trends (March to March growth) - NSJV currently 10,000 jobs above pre-recession peak
10 Employment and Labor Force Trends Employment declined less and recovered faster than NSJV payroll jobs due to increasing self-employment and commuters.
11 Unemployment Rate
12 Employment Growth by Sector (2004 to 2014)
13 Employment Growth by Sector (2014 to 2015)
14 Occupations with High Relative Concentrations in the NSJV NSJV San Joaquin County Stanislaus County Merced County Occupation Type Jobs CA L.Q. Jobs CA L.Q. Jobs CA L.Q. Jobs CA L.Q. Farming 20, , , , Transportation and Material Moving 42, , , , Production 31, , , , Education, Training, and Library 34, , , , Healthcare Support 12, , , , Office and Sales occupations are most common in NSJV, but not uncommonly so. Food preparation/serving is 4 th most common, but slightly below average concentration.
15 Occupations with Low Relative Concentrations in the NSJV NSJV San Joaquin County Stanislaus County Merced County Occupation Type Jobs CA L.Q. Jobs CA L.Q. Jobs CA L.Q. Jobs CA L.Q. Computer and Mathematical 3, , , Architecture and Engineering 2, , Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 2, , , Legal 1, Business and Financial Operations 11, , , , Life, Physical, and Social Science 2, , Management 18, , , ,
16 Top Occupations by Rate of Growth In Past 5 Years
17 Real GDP Trends NSJV GDP peaked in 2006, Sluggish recovery since 2011 Income/Output recovery has been slower than the job recovery.
18 NSJV per-capita income has been falling behind since the 1980 s. The 3-county region had per-capita income 10% above the U.S. average in the 1970 s, similar to the Bay Area. Per-capita income is now 15% below the U.S. average.
19 Average Wages
20 Real per Capita Income Per Capita (e.g. average) income has been relatively steady, and even increased in Merced County in recent years, but
21 Real Median Household Income Median household income has declined significantly, and remains well below prerecession levels. Reflects increasing inequality.
22 Per Capita Income by Race & Ethnicity
23 Median Income by Educational Attainment Biggest Income Differences Between NSJV and California Average Is At the Highest Education Levels.
24 Patents per Employee
25 Nonemployer Firms Growing Rapidly in NSJV Likely Reflects the Rapid Growth of Transportation and Material Moving Industry
26 Demand for Industrial Buildings is Strong
27 NSJV Agricultural Income Trends
28 Farm Wages Trends Farm wages flat from 2008 to 2011 on hourly and total basis. Since 2011, Average hourly farm wage has increased from $11.00 to $13.50 Total farm wages increased from $1 billion to $1.3 billion.
29 NSJV Economy Summary Job growth is the strongest performing economic indicator in the North San Joaquin Valley. Median household incomes and average wages in the NSJV have declined after adjusting for inflation. The share of non-employer firms is increasing, and is now above the national average. Demand for industrial space in the NSJV is high. The value of agricultural production in the NSJV reached $10.5 billion in 2013, and early indicators suggest another record in 2014.
30 People of the NSJV Population Growth and Demographics (next panel) Education Arts and Culture Civic Engagement and Crime #stateofnsjv2015
31 Population Growth and Migration
32 Preschool Enrollment
33 Third Grade Reading Proficiency Trends
34 Algebra One Proficiency Trends
35 High School Graduation Trends
36 High School Graduation Rates by Race Latino and Black Graduation Rates Exceed the State Average in All 3 NSJV Counties But still lag behind White and Asian Graduation Rates
37 College Qualified School Graduate Trends
38 Educational Attainment NSJV: 25% Not High School Graduate, 17% College Graduate CA: 19% Not High School Graduate, 31% College Graduate
39 Select NSJV University Student Geography
40 Percent of All Establishments Dedicated to Arts & Culture Arts and culture establishments declined during recession, and have not recovered. Stanislaus County has the highest concentration of arts and culture establishments in the NSJV.
41 Registered Non-profits per Capita
42 Felony Offenses Rate
43 People of the NSJV Summary NSJV population grew 1.28% growth between 2013 and 2014 and is now more than 1.5 million. While educational attainment in the NSJV is improving, it has not closed the gap with the rest of the state with the exception of HS graduation rates. Arts and culture participation in the NSJV is rising, but the number of arts and culture establishments in the NSJV has decreased. Crime rates in the NSJV have been decreasing in recent years.
44 Place Housing Environment Health #stateofnsjv2015
45 Residential Building Permits Trends
46 Percent of Housing Units that are Owner Occupied
47 Trends in Median Home Sale Price
48 Households with Housing Costs Greater than 35%of Income
49 Young Adults Living with a Parent
50 Average Annual 8-hour Daily Ozone Concentration
51 NSJV Air Quality Is Much Better than Southern California and South Valley
52 Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita
53 Population With Health Insurance
54 Infant Mortality Rate Trends
55 NSJV as a Place Summary Foreclosures, underwater mortgages, and median home values have recovered rapidly. Housing affordability in the NSJV has improved, but housing costs are now rising faster than incomes. Construction of new housing in the NSJV remains at depressed levels. Air quality is improving in the region, but still a problem. Vehicle miles traveled down, but commute times are up. Large increase in health insurance coverage in the NSJV since the ACA.
56 Panel Discussion: Transportation and Economic Development #stateofnsjv2015
57 Transportation and Economic Development in the NSJV Moderator Andrew Chesley, San Joaquin Council of Governments/Executive Director Panelists Mark Hendrickson, Merced County Community, Aviation & Economic Development/ Director Harry Mavrogenes, Stockton Airport/Director Mark Tollini, Port of Stockton/Senior Deputy Port Director
58 Commuting and Goods Movement Andrew Chesley, Executive Director San Joaquin Council of Governments (Here) #stateofnsjv2015
59 Transportation and Economic Development in the NSJV Moderator Andrew Chesley, San Joaquin Council of Governments/Executive Director Panelists Mark Hendrickson, Merced County Community, Aviation & Economic Development/ Director Harry Mavrogenes, Stockton Airport/Director Mark Tollini, Port of Stockton/Senior Deputy Port Director
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