Talent Advantage Series. Cameron Macht DEED Labor Market Information Office Regional Analysis & Outreach April 11, 2018

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1 Talent Advantage Series Cameron Macht DEED Labor Market Information Office Regional Analysis & Outreach April 11, 2018

2 Labor Force Constraints From 1976 to 2001, Minnesota gained +993,000 workers Average of about +40,000 new workers per year From 2001 to 2017, Minnesota gained +218,402 new workers Average of about +13,650 workers per year Region 5 gained +23,317 workers from ,967 workers from ,350 workers from Region 5 now has 83,576 workers Peaked at 85,035 in 2010

3 Projected Labor Force Changes From 2020 to 2030, Minnesota is projected to gain +73,525 workers Average of about +7,350 workers per year This includes a big decline in year old workers Huge increase in Millennials and workers aged 65 & over! Region 5 s labor force is projected to decline slightly from Similar growth for Millennials Huge loss of year olds Less growth in year olds Similar growth 75 years & over Tight labor markets are now recognized as one of the most significant barriers to growth 0.9 jobseekers per vacancy in 2017

4 Employment Disparities Minnesota has significant employment disparities for minority groups; but it s getting better Closing these gaps is crucial! Participation rates are lower and unemployment rates are higher for: Younger workers Workers with disabilities People with lower educational attainment The challenges we face over the next decades are so great we ll need to tackle them with a multi-pronged approach to attract and retain workers of all demographic characteristics

5 Racial Diversity Region 5 is relatively non-diverse, but increased racial diversity will be a key component of growth White population is much older than minority population State Demographic Center projects that the minority population will grow +37.3%, compared to +4.1% for whites (primarily due to aging) Region 5 s population growth was mostly due to a natural increase 1,945 more births than deaths Only 1.5% of the county s population is foreignborn (state = 7.7%) Largest number is from Latin America

6 Commute and Labor Shed Region 5 is a net labor exporter (more people than jobs) 47,166 people both live & work in Region 5 14,950 people commute in Otter Tail, Beltrami, Hubbard, Stearns 24,809 people commute out Stearns, Hennepin, Benton, Otter Tail Workers are commuting to jobs in health care, manufacturing, educational svcs.

7 Economic Growth Region 5 s economy is growing steadily Added nearly +4,500 net new jobs (+7.4%) since 2000 (state = +9.5%) Added +3,362 net new jobs (+5.5%) from (state = +11.9%) +232 jobs (+0.4%) from (state = +1.1%) Health care & social assistance (11,065 jobs) is the largest industry +1,118 jobs Retail Trade & Acc. & Food Services Provide 28.4% of jobs! Low wages, growth Manufacturing and Transportation are less concentrated here than in the state Lost jobs since 2007

8 Workforce Demographics Different sectors rely on different age groups Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Retail Trade utilize younger workers Transportation; Other Services; Utilities; Real Estate; and Educational Services have the oldest workers The workforce is aging over time more workers aged 55 years & over

9 Wage Growth Median wages have been rising across the board, for all age groups Rising fastest for the youngest workers; though they have the lowest wages New opportunities have opened since 2011; more job mobility & wage competition Accommodation & Food Services Hours are also up!

10 Wage Growth Wages are lower in Region 5 North Central than the state Lowest median hourly wage of any region (Twin Cities = $21.55) $1.78 below Region 7W $2.08 below Region 7E $1.24 below Region 4 Wage gaps are relatively small for lower-paying occupations; but large for highpaying jobs

11 Job Vacancies Job vacancies in Region 5 support the picture of a strong labor market with extensive job opportunity Averaging about 2,700 job vacancies over the past 4 years Record level of 4,117 vacancies in Qtr (Qtr = 2,397) Postsecondary education requirements have not changed dramatically over time typically between 25% and 40% of vacancies But wage offers are climbing From $10.95 in Q to $12.16 in Q

12 Occupations in Demand Over 200 occupations in demand in Region 5 Ranging from short-term on-the-job training to advanced degrees Northwest Minnesota region is projected to gain nearly 9,250 net new jobs from ,000 replacement openings Largest growth in health care and support; sales & related; personal care & service; and construction & extraction Declines in production; office and admin. support; management; education, training & library; and farming

13 Cost of Living Tool What is the basic needs cost of living budget for a typical family? $47,040 (state = $55,200) Hourly Wage = $15.90 mn.gov/deed/col/ Find out how much it costs to make it from county to county Regions, EDRs, Counties One full-time worker Two full-time 2,080 hours 4,160 hours Cost of living for a Single person with no children = $28,692 Required Hourly Wage = $13.79 Median hourly wage offer was $ of the 14 industries had median wage offers lower than that in Qtr

14 Regional Profiles Demographics Labor Force Incomes, Wages Occupations Economy Manufacturing Profiles Local Look blog posts northwest/northwest-blog.jsp

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16 THANK YOU! Questions? Cameron Macht Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Labor Market Information Office

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