Changing Forces, Changing City. By Kim Walesh, City of San Jose

Transcription

1 Changing Forces, Changing City By Kim Walesh, City of San Jose

2 The world is becoming more urban 10% 50% 75%

3 We face critical decisions about the kind of city San Jose should become in the future

4 We know the next 30 years will be fundamentally different than the last

5 We need to plan for San Jose to succeed in an uncertain future

6 Consider how we can anticipate and harness forces of change Demographic Economic Environmental

7 Demographics: Dramatic Shifts

8 Growth shifts to seniors, young adults

9 What Will Aging Boomers Want? Dan May

10 Young professionals are key to prosperity

11 Live First/Work Second is their mantra

12 Young professionals prefer central city locations 1980: 10% more likely 2000: 33% more likely

13 USC Demographic Futures Project Immigrants are essential for workforce growth!! Immigrants and children of immigrants!! 100% of net additions to CA workforce

14 Increased workforce reliance on children of immigrants million million

15 A community of newcomers: ranked #1 nationally 36.4% Foreign-Born 10.2% Arrived Since 2000

16 Global brain circulation accelerates innovation

17 Cities that can t attract young professionals and immigrants will shrink!

18 Household structure will shift

19 Households without children become the strong majority Households with children Households without children --single person households 48% 33% 27% 52% 67% 73% 13% 26% 29%

20 Rapid growth in single households, especially women

21 Significant Change in Housing Demand Projected Nationally!! Nationally, households without children will account for close to 90% of new housing demand to 2030; singleperson households will account for 33%!! Demand for attached and small-lot housing will exceed current supply by 35 million units, while demand for large-lot housing will actually be less than current supply!! Growing preference for compact, walkable neighborhoods among single adults, empty nesters, and couples w/out children

22 Today, SJ Has Slightly Lower Share of Households Without Children Households with children Households without children --single person households San Jose 2007 Nation % 31% 63% 69% 22% 27% Households without children are still a strong majority in San Jose; one in five is a single household.

23 Changed SJ Housing Demand to 2030: 87% New Household Growth Is 55+

24 After 2030, Growth in Family-Age Households Resumes

25 Economics: Cities Compete on Global Stage

26 The world is competitive and connected

27 Economic power is shifting to Asia, growth is in emerging economies

28 City-regions compete; Many other innovation leaders Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, Richard Florida

29 Demand will rise for educated workers

30 Growing demand for collegeeducated workers

31 Shortages predicted; California is not prepared

32 Wide Gender Gap in College Graduation

33 Economic returns to education will increase, widening income gap Late 1970s Today 20% 85%

34 Creativity fuels innovation Insert triangle: creativity innovation

35 Right Brain is becoming as important as Left Brain Logical Mathematical Linear Sequential Verbal Rational Intuitive Artistic Nonlinear Simultaneous Visual Emotional

36 Business: New Ways to Work Emerge

37 More Entrepreneurs and Free Agents

38 The mobile, networked office is here

39 Office space is dramatically underutilized Insert photo of empty cubicles

40 Everyone doesn t need an office, everyday Fully Mobile Home/ Third Place Internally Mobile Anchor

41 Mobility cuts costs, lowers carbon footprint, benefits employees Decreases Decreases

42 Quality places are even more important in age of creativity, mobility

43 Innovation requires interaction, face-to-face

44 There is greater reliance on shared amenities and public space Support Services Restaurants Recreation/Fitness Cafes, Coffee

45 The shift from industrial parks to innovation districts is widespread

46 Environment: Cities Viewed as Solution

47 San Jose at Forefront: Grow in Environmentally Sustainable Way

48 High gas prices are altering the real estate landscape

49 Growth of suburban housing and outlying communities was predicated on cheap gas

50 Nationally, home price decline is correlated with auto dependence

51 Cities will be designed for less driving

52 On per capita basis, denser cities have less environmental impact

53 Green dividends will accrue to smart cities

54 Less driving saves money for families and sparks the economy Portland $2.3 billion Chicago $3.2 billion

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57 We can harness forces of change to be a model city Demographic Economic Environmental

58 What Do You Think? Kim Walesh Chief Strategist City of San Jose