Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, Prepared By: Myron Borys Vice President, Edmonton Economic Development Corporation

Transcription

1 Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006 Prepared By: Myron Borys Vice President, Edmonton Economic Development Corporation

2 Outline The Fundamental Issues Oil Sands as Driver Immigration Migration Employment Trends Possible Solutions Footer Page 2

3 The Labour Issue a Snapshot

4 Current Labour Market Alberta s economy has been one of the strongest in Canada and continues to strengthen. By 2015, it is forecast that 400,000 new jobs will be created, but only 300,000 new workers are expected to enter the labour market leaving a shortfall of 100,000 workers. In 2005, Alberta had: the lowest unemployment rate: 3.9% the highest participation rate: 72.8% the highest employment rate: 69.9% People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE Footer Page 4

5 Future Alberta Labour Challenges Aging population Baby boomers retiring by 2010 By 2026, 20% of the population will be over 65 Declining population growth In the past decade, fertility rates are 1.7 well below the replacement rate of 2.1. New jobs require higher skills and education 60% of Alberta jobs will require a post-secondary education. Greater competition for labour - from other provinces and globally Decreasing participation rates If 2005 trend continues it will exacerbate job shortages Footer Page 5 People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE

6 Projected GDP Growth Edmonton 12% 10% Annual Growth Rate 8% 6% 4% 2.7% 8.1% 4.2% 7.0% 3.1% 3.6% 2.8% 4.3% 5.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2% 1.2% 0% f 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f Source: The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 Footer Page 6

7 Fundamental Issue #1: The Oil Sands

8 Oilsands Related Employment Growth Edmonton CMA Total Employment Footer Page 8 "Declaration of Opportunity" Signed for Oilsands D l t J Pre Post Pre-trend Post-trend 77,400

9 Oilsands Capital Expenditures Will Continue 12,000 10,000 In m illions 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Proposed & Committed Expenditures Footer Page 9 Source: Alberta Economic Development, September 2004 Probability Adjusted Expenditures

10 Fundamental Issue #2: Low Immigration to Edmonton

11 International Immigration According to Statistics Canada between July 1, 2003 and June 30, 2004: 239,116 immigrants entered Canada 17,071 immigrants entered Alberta 4813 immigrants came to Edmonton in 2003, only 30 % of immigrants to Alberta.(Citizenship & Immigration Canada) Recent immigrants to Edmonton had an employment rate of 76.1 % and their unemployment rate was 5.9 %. (City of Edmonton, March 2005) 60% of immigrants do not find employment in their area of expertise. (AHRE) There is is a real opportunity to to attract more immigrants, and get them productive sooner through recognition of professional designations. Footer Page 11 through recognition of professional designations.

12 Fundamental Issue #3: Migration from other Provinces

13 Unemployment Rate Edmonton and Canada 12% 10% 8% The The unemployment rate rate in in Canada has has declined substantially increasing the the challenge of of attracting migrants from other provinces. 6% 4% 2% 0% f 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f Edmonton Canada Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 Footer Page 13

14 Alberta Population Growth Alberta s s Population Growth Components ( ) Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Net International 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Period Note:These statistics do not include individuals from the Temporary Foreign Worker Program People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE Footer Page 14

15 Albertans migrate 5 Times more than Quebecers per capita Total Inter-Provincial Migration Per Capita Albera, B.C., Ontario and Quebec Movements Per Thousand Population X Quebec Ontario Alberta British Columbia Footer Page 15

16 Fundamental Issue #4: Employment and Participation Rates

17 Employment Growth 6% 5% 4% 3% Required?! 2% 1% 0% -1% f 2008f 2010f -2% StatCan CBOC Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table ; The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 Footer Page 17

18 Summary of 2005 Labour Force Changes Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.6% Participation Rate 72.7% 70.7% Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review, 2004; Statistics Canada, FooterMonthly Labour Force Page Data, (Thousands) Change in 2005 from 2004 Working age population Labour Force Employment Full-time Part-time Unemployed Not in workforce Indicates that the Edmonton market is at full employment Employment Jobs

19 Participation Rates 76.00% 74.00% 72.00% 70.00% 68.00% 66.00% 64.00% 62.00% 60.00% 2005 Mar Canada AB Edmonton Calgary Why are people in in Edmonton taking themselves out of of the workforce???? Footer Page 19

20 Possible Employment Scenario? 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50, A 30,000 decline in employment -60,000 as a result of a curtailment of oilsands construction would increase unemployment by about Footer Page Oilsands Related Other Actual % Construction Cyclical Industry! Need to Diversify!

21 Edmonton Employment Change Thousands Footer Page 21

22 Big Thinking Needed to Address these Issues

23 EWC Initiatives Immigrants Hold Foreign Worker Readiness Seminars Targeted Immigration Missions City of Edmonton Immigrant Council International Student Retention Campaign Aboriginal People Aboriginal Forum - March 16, 2006 Communication On-line Labour Market Information Feb 2006 Labour Attraction Website targetting migrants and immigrants May 2006 Labour Attraction Magazine Sept 2006 Monthly Electronic Labour Market News March 2006 Migrants Migrant study to explain high movement in and out of Edmonton Secondary immigrant recruitment campaign targeting Toronto and Vancouver Cooperative recruiting by groups of employers targeting similar employees Apprentices Train Journeymen to better mentor apprentices and increase apprentice retention Pre-employment Training for apprentices to make them work-ready Footer Page 23 Secondary School Students Parent Presentations (March May 2006 Students In-Site Program to showcase real workplaces to students Career Influencers Communication Process

24 High Labour Market Initiatives GAP?: $5M/Year Image Campaign Marketing Edmonton Focus City of Edmonton Brand/Marketing $480K GAP: New Focused Labour Attraction Marketing Initiatives < $1M Media Plan EEDC Skilled Labour Initiatives $250K Low Labour Issue Focus Footer Page 24 High

25 Strategic Opportunities 1. Productivity Improvements Reduce labour dependence AUTOMATE! Outsourcing a good option? 2. Increase international migration Attract more people Make them productive sooner 3. Increase intra-provincial in migration Attract more Canadians 4. Decrease intra-provincial out migration Stop the churn! Footer Page 25