Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities

Transcription

1 Economic and Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan Cities Presentation to the: Association of Professional Community Planners of Saskatchewan Doug Elliott Tel: Sask Trends Monitor Fax: th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan Internet: S4N 1H1 September 16,

2 Outline General Overview of Provincial Demographics Saskatchewan Cities and urban areas Age and Demographic Characteristics of Urban residents Socioeconomic Characteristics of Urban residents September 16,

3 Provincial Population Saskatchewan Population 1,050 thousands 1,025 1, actual projected as of July: Saskatchewan s population is effectively one million people, has been for about thirty years, and is expected to hover near that mark for the foreseeable future. There are lots of changes happening within this stable group of one million people. September 16,

4 Inter-Provincial Migration (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) thousands Inter-Provincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan July to June: out-migration in-migration net migration Declining fertility and longer life expectancy affect the overall population size but the main determinant is interprovincial migration. Inter-provincial migration contributed to population growth in only a few of the past 30 years. A disproportionate number of people leaving the province are young and well educated. Last year, 40% of outmigrants were 20 to 34 years of age; 55% were postsecondary graduates. September 16,

5 Changing Age Structures Saskatchewan Population in July ,000 16,000 14,000 The older end of the baby boom generation (in their mid fifties) is already contemplating retirement. 12,000 10,000 8,000 echo bust boom 56 years Because of out-migration, we have a smaller bust generation coming behind to replace retiring boomers. 6,000 4,000 2,000 primary labour market age The echo in Saskatchewan is relatively large because of the Aboriginal population individual years of age September 16,

6 Historical Pattern of Urbanization Urbanization in Saskatchewan thousands non-farm population This is the only longterm measure we have for urbanization in Saskatchewan; a farm/non-farm breakdown farm population In 1951, there were as many people living on the farm as off the farm. By 2001, the ratio of non-farm to farm population was 7: September 16,

7 Saskatchewan Urban Centres September 16,

8 Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations Saskatoon 196,811 Regina 178,225 Prince Albert 34,291 Moose Jaw 32, , , , , ,000 Population-wise, these are the four largest centres in Saskatchewan. The figures are from the census and are as of May September 16,

9 Saskatchewan Urban Area Populations Yorkton Swift Current North Battleford Estevan Weyburn Lloydminster (Sask) Melfort Humboldt Meadow Lake Kindersley Melville Martensville Nipawin Battleford Warman Tisdale La Ronge Assiniboia 5,559 5,161 4,582 4,548 4,453 4,365 4,275 3,820 3,481 3,063 2,727 2,483 7,840 10,242 9,534 15,107 14,821 13, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 These are the next eighteen largest centres in Saskatchewan according to their 2001 population. September 16,

10 Population Changes, 1996 to 2001 Martensville Warman Tisdale Lloydminster (Sask) Humboldt Saskatoon Population change from 1996 to % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Only 6 of the 22 largest communities grew from 1996 to September 16,

11 Population Changes, 1996 to 2001 Yorkton Swift Current Nipawin Regina Prince Albert Weyburn Moose Jaw North Battleford Kindersley Battleford Melfort Melville Estevan Meadow Lake Assiniboia La Ronge Population change from 1996 to % -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% September 16,

12 Changes in the Number of Households Change in the Number of Households Lloydminster (SK) Humboldt Saskatoon Swift Current Yorkton Regina Weyburn Many urban centres with a population decline still have an increase in the number of households. Kindersley Prince Albert North Battleford Moose Jaw Meadow Lake Melville Estevan Melfort Change from 1996 to 2001 This is because households are getting smaller in the sense of the average number of people living in them. -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% September 16,

13 City vs. Census Metropolitan Areas September 16,

14 Census Metropolitan Areas/Agglomeration Areas Statistics Canada uses commuting patterns as a method of determining census metropolitan areas (CMAs) for large cities and census agglomerations (CAs) for smaller cities. These are the communities considered part of the cities for smaller urban areas in Saskatchewan, i.e. CAs: Yorkton - Orkney RM#244, Ebenezer, Springside, Willowbrook Estevan - Estevan RM#5, Bienfait Moose Jaw - Moose Jaw RM#161 Swift Current - Swift Current RM#137 North Battleford - Town of Battleford Prince Albert - Prince Albert RM#461, Buckland RM#491, Wahpaton Reserve September 16,

15 Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Regina Beach Lumsden Pilot Butte Balgonie Pense September 16,

16 Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Langham Dalmeny Martensville Osler Asquith Clavet Colonsay Delisle Allan Dundurn September 16,

17 Population including CMA/CAs Population of Major Urban Centres, 2001 (including surrounding areas) Rest of Sask 413,713 Prince Albert 41,460 Moose Jaw 33,519 Regina 192,800 Other urban 146,495 Saskatoon 225,927 Yorkton 17,554 North Battleford 17,512 Swift Current 16,527 Estevan 12,083 Lloydminster (Sask part) 7,840 September 16,

18 Population Growth for CMAs Population Change, 1996 to 2001 Estevan Moose Jaw North Battleford Yorkton One of the reasons that population has not grown, even in some of the larger centres, is that people are often choosing to live outside the city boundaries. Prince Albert Regina Swift Current Saskatoon Including CMA City Proper This is particularly true in Saskatoon, Swift Current, Regina, and Prince Albert. The opposite is true in Yorkton and Moose Jaw. -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% September 16,

19 Age Characteristics unless otherwise indicated, all of the statistics in the rest of this presentation refer to the 8 largest CMAs or CAs in the province, i.e. Regina, Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Yorkton, Swift Current, North Battleford, and Estevan September 16,

20 Age Distributions in 2001 Age Distribution in % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% percent of population Rural The relative lack of young people in Saskatchewan is more pronounced in rural areas. In urban areas, 15% of the population is 20 to 34 compared with 21% in rural areas. 3% 2% 1% 0% Urban plus Seniors are more prevalent in rural Saskatchewan than they are in the cities. Children are more prevalent in rural areas. September 16,

21 Age of Urban Residents Age Distribution in 2001 Saskatoon Regina Prince Albert North Battleford Estevan 21% 20% 23% 22% 22% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 21% 17% Although the differences are small, Swift Current and Yorkton are the oldest cities; Saskatoon is the youngest. Moose Jaw 19% 14% 23% Yorkton Swift Current RURAL AVERAGE URBAN AVERAGE 19% 18% 22% 20% 13% 14% 14% 16% 25% 24% 22% 17% North Battleford and Yorkton have the lowest proportion in the 25 to 59 age group. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Under to to plus September 16,

22 Other Demographic Characteristics September 16,

23 Aboriginal Identity Aboriginal Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 Swift Current Estevan Moose Jaw Regina First Nation Métis & other Aboriginal There is a huge variation in the proportion of Aboriginal people (self-identified) in cities. Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Yorkton RURAL AVERAGE Prince Albert and North Battleford have the highest percentage; southern cities the lowest. North Battleford Prince Albert 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% The provincial average is 13.5%. September 16,

24 Age of Aboriginal Population Urban Age Distributions in % 16% 14% 12% 10% percent of population Unlike the non- Aboriginal population, the Aboriginal population in urban centres is very young. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0-4 years Urban non-aboriginal Urban Aboriginal plus 49% of urban Aboriginals are under 20 years of age compared with 26% of urban non- Aboriginals. September 16,

25 Immigration Immigrant Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Yorkton Prince Albert Estevan Recent (Since 1991) Before 1991 The urban areas have a disproportionate number of the recent immigrants in Saskatchewan (persons born outside Canada). North Battleford Moose Jaw Swift Current URBAN AVERAGE Regina Saskatoon 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% The proportion is still very low compared with other Canadian cities. Recent immigrants are 17% of the population in Toronto and Vancouver; 4% in Winnipeg; 7% in Calgary. September 16,

26 Members of a Visible Minority Group Visible Minority Population as Percentage of Total, 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Estevan Yorkton Prince Albert Membership in a visible minority group and recent immigration tend to go hand in hand. North Battleford Moose Jaw Swift Current URBAN AVERAGE Regina Saskatoon 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Saskatoon and Regina have the most members; Estevan the fewest. All of the proportions are small relative to other Canadian cities. September 16,

27 Economic Characteristics September 16,

28 Education Completed Education Levels in 2001 Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Regina Prince Albert This chart shows the highest level of completed education among the adult (15 & older) population. Swift Current North Battleford Moose Jaw Estevan Yorkton RURAL AVERAGE 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Education levels tend to reflect economic activity. Higher levels of education are required, for example, in public sector activities - education, health, government. Post-secondary Graduates At least grade 12 September 16,

29 Employment Rates Employment Rate (15 to 64 years) in May 2001 Prince Albert Moose Jaw RURAL AVERAGE North Battleford Saskatoon Yorkton URBAN AVERAGE Regina Swift Current Estevan This is the percentage of the adult (15 to 64) population employed in May Higher levels of employment tend to mean more prosperity but they can also indicate a shortage of workers. 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% September 16,

30 Employment Growth Growth in Employment, 1996 to 2001 Moose Jaw RURAL AVERAGE Swift Current Estevan Prince Albert North Battleford Yorkton Regina URBAN AVERAGE Saskatoon -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Employment grew in all but one of the urban centres. Moose Jaw suffered from the downsizing of the air forces base. Saskatoon had the largest increase. In the previous five years ( ), Saskatoon had the highest growth; employment in North Battleford, Yorkton, and Moose Jaw declined. September 16,

31 Industry Sectors Industry Mix in 2001 RURAL AVERAGE Estevan Swift Current Yorkton Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Regina Moose Jaw North Battleford Prince Albert 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Other goods producing is: utilities; manufacturing; the oil/gas and mining sectors; and construction Public sector services is health and social services, education, and government. Agriculture Private sector services Other goods-producing Public sector services September 16,

32 Income Average Income in 2000 Estevan Regina URBAN AVERAGE Saskatoon Estevan has the highest average income among the cities, Yorkton the lowest. Prince Albert Swift Current Moose Jaw North Battleford Yorkton Individual Household All of the urban centres have higher incomes than the rural average. RURAL AVERAGE $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 thousands September 16,

33 Market Value of Houses Average Market Value of Owner-Occupied Dwellings, 2001 Saskatoon URBAN AVERAGE Estevan Regina Prince Albert Swift Current Yorkton Moose Jaw North Battleford RURAL AVERAGE Housing costs are much higher in the cities, of course. The average market value of owned dwellings was $112,000 in 2001 compared with $63,000 for rural areas. $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 thousands September 16,

34 Summary Some key statistics affecting urban planners are summarized below. The population of urban centres is growing more quickly than the rural population but this still means many are declining in size. The number of households is increasing more quickly than the population. A relatively large number of Saskatchewan residents are choosing to live just outside the urban areas rather than within the cities. Relative to rural Saskatchewan, residents of urban centres tend to be: more likely to be 20 to 49 years of age, less likely to be 55 or older; more diverse - e.g. members of a visible minority group, recent immigrants, although the Aboriginal population varies significantly by city; with higher levels of employment, education, and income. September 16,