China's 1-child policy: How did it matter, how did it not?

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1 China's 1-child policy: How did it matter, how did it not? Economic Demography Econ/Demog 175 Prof. Goldstein UC Berkeley Week 9, Lecture A Spring

2 Last time Theories of fertility decline Now we turn to actual changes in policy and in the economy A. The one-child policy in China (today) B. The Great Recession in the United States (Thurs) 2

3 But first... "in my twitter feed" Baby-boom and bust is like demog. trans. When is demog. dividend? 3

4 Speed of fertility decline China! Iran? Nigeria? 4

5 Our Agenda 1. The 1-child policy, beginnings and end 2. Did the 1-child policy reduce fertility? 3. Baby boys vs. baby girls (in-class exercise) 4. What can we see in the 2000 Chinese census? (in-class start to lab) 5

6 1. History of 1-child policy Thank you to Zhou Yi (former 175 GSI, now an assistant professor at Beijing U.) for slides 6

Pre-One-Child Policy (1971-1979): Later-Longer-Fewer ( 晚稀少 ) Campaign Later Marriage: encourage people to get married three years after legal marriage ages.

7 Pre-One-Child Policy ( ): Later-Longer-Fewer ( 晚稀少 ) Campaign Later Marriage: encourage people to get married three years after legal marriage ages. Men: at least 25 (rural) or (urban); Women: at least 23 (rural) or 25 (urban) days late marriage leave. Longer Spacing: the interval between two consecutive births should be longer than 4 years. Fewer Children: each couple were encouraged to have no more than two.

8 8 (undated) women work, only son, high quality daughter

9 From Wan-Xi-Shao to Just-One-Child The era of Deng Xiaoping: the new leadership had a strong commitment in developing the economy. Science, Modernity and Policy Making: a group of control theorists suggested that China would achieve the highest levels of well-being around 2050 if its population could be reduced to million.

10 The Beginning of One-Child Policy Local governments began to modify their family-planning regulations toward one-child policy since late One-Child Policy was first formally announced through An open letter to all party members and all youth league members on People s Daily in September State Council advocates that each couple should have only one child. After 30 years of implementation, we may switch...

12 Flexibility and Decentralization ( ) Due to the practical difficulties in the earlier years, CPCC allowed greater flexibility in local practices. Flexibility: plan to permit about 10% of population (e.g. exemption for minority groups and condition two-child policy in rural areas) to have two. Open a small hole to close up a big one make changes in practice gradually and not speak (flexibility) out openly. Decentralization: Regulations should be made in accordance with local conditions.

13 Family planning was listed among the three basic state policies in the 8 th Five-Year Plan in March Restrengthening of 1CP: Population and Promotion No achievements (in birth control), No Promotion To achieve subnational compliance, policy must be supplemented with more detailed management by objectivesn (ME ). At a meeting on birth policy in the premier s office, Li Peng (premier at that time) explained that such targets should be evaluative (Greenhalgh and Winckler, 2005)

15 The end of One-Child Policy : Local governments Two-child policy for couples that both are from singlechild families. 2014: Two-child policy for couples that either is from a single-child family. 2016: Universal two-child policy. The Fifth Plenum of the 17 th CPC central committee announced the abolition of one-child policy on Oct 29, 2015.

16 Motivations behind 1-CP The leadership of China in late 1970s argued that (Chen, 1979) rapid population growth: Retards achievement of the four modernizations (in industry, agriculture, science and technology, and defense) Hampers attainment of full employment. Cuts into increases in capital accumulation, living standards, and education.

17 Motivations behind 2-CP National Health and Family Planning Committee responded about why switch to two-child policy: Lower Population growth rate today The decline of labor-force size in recent years The challenges of an more aged society The lasting-imbalanced sex ratio The promise in the 1979 open letter

18 2. So what happened to fertility? 18

19 The mystery: where is 1CP hiding? Source: Gu & Cai (2009 presentation at UN) 19

20 The mystery: where is 1CP hiding? iclicker A B C D E 20

21 The mystery: where is 1CP hiding? 21

22 Comparison countries Figure 1 Total Fertility Rate for Rural and Urban China and Four Selected Countries ( ) Total fertility rate Rural China Urban China Mexico Thailand South Korea A. South Korea B. Rural China C. Urban China D. India E. Thailand India Source: The total fertility rate data for each country are from the World Bank (2016). China s urban and rural total fertility rate data are obtained from several sources: the data are adopted from Peng and Guo (2000); the data are from the 2001 National Fertility and Reproductive Health Survey; the data are adopted from Hao and Qiu (2011); and the 2000 and 2010 data are obtained from the national population censuses in the respective years. Source: Zheng 2017, JEP 22

23 Comparison countries Figure 1 Total Fertility Rate for Rural and Urban China and Four Selected Countries ( ) Rural China Mexico Total fertility rate Thailand India 2 Urban China 1 South Korea Source: The total fertility rate data for each country are from the World Bank (2016). China s urban and rural total fertility rate data are obtained from several sources: the data are adopted from Peng and Guo (2000); the data are from the 2001 National Fertility and Reproductive Health Survey; the data are adopted from Hao and Qiu (2011); and the 2000 and 2010 data are obtained from the national population censuses in the respective years. Source: Zheng 2017, JEP 23

24 What if no 1CP? China vs. Taiwan TFR China Taiwan year 24

25 "Ahead of the curve" Figure 2 Total Fertility Rate and GDP per capita for China and Four Selected Countries ( ) Total fertility rate China India Thailand South Korea Mexico 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 GDP per capita Source: Zheng 2017, JEP Sources: The total fertility rate and GDP data for each country are from the World Bank (2016), and the unit of GDP per capita is US dollars (2014 constant prices). Notes: The figure plots each country s total fertility rate against its real GDP per capita, showing decadal points from 1960 to Each point represents, from left to right, the total fertility rate and GDP per capita of each country in 1960 (for China 1962 was chosen instead of 1960 to avoid the unusual famine effect in China), 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and When GDP per capita of a country exceeded $10,000, that country actually stepped up to become a developed economy. Thus, I dropped two points with GDP per capita levels above $10,000 for South Korea to make the figure compact. 25

26 3. Fewer daughters: An unintended consequence of 1CP? An in-class exercise, with coins, on stopping rules Our lab with the 1990 Chinese census 26

27 Son Preference and Stopping Rules Take a coin (Tails = girl; Heads = boy) 1. Check to see if coins are fair (everyone flip twice) 2. Introduce stopping rule: "keep having children until you get a boy" 3. Two questions 1. Will stopping rule change sex ratio at birth 2. Will stopping rule number of sibs of boys vs. 27 girls?

28 1. Check if coins are fair Flip twice HH = BB % HT = BG % TH = GB % TT = GG % 28

29 2. Stopping rule: "Stop if BOY, otherwise try again" H TH TT (Max = 2) # households # children 1. Does this change the fraction girls? 2. Does average number of siblings for boys equal average number for girls? 29

30 Lessons Stopping rules and strategies alone can't change sex ratio They can amplify gender inequality If we see changes in sex ratio, it is behavior sex-selective abortion (ultrasound) differential reporting ("hiding girls") differential mortality anything else? 30

31 Our Lab 1990 Chinese census Known to have a lot of child underreporting But maybe we can still see effects of 1-CP? 31

10/24/2017. China. Labor Shortage in China?! Outline. Population Pattern. Population from Censuses

10/24/2017. China. Labor Shortage in China?! Outline. Population Pattern. Population from Censuses China Population and Family Planning (chapter 6) Labor Shortage in China?! 1.4 Billion vs. 325 million (U.S.) Made in China, China as the factory of the world V.S. Chinese Labor, Cheap No More In Coastal