Impact of Internal migration on regional aging in China: With comparison to Japan

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1 Impact of Internal migration on regional aging in China: With comparison to Japan YANG Ge Institute of Population and Labor Economics, CASS Abstract: since the reform and opening in China, a large number of young labors migrate from western and central rural areas to the southeast coastal city, not only prompted regional economy of the southeast coastal areas, but also changed the pattern of regional aging. This paper describes Chinese population migration and regional aging pattern. Migration speeded up the aging process of central and western regions, especially the rural areas. At the same time, this paper calculates the impact of migration on regional aging, thus found: the aging process of southeast coastal area eased because of labor inflows; and the aging situation of central and western regions became more serious due to emigration, i.e. Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan province. In these provinces rural areas, the traditional elderly family-care mode cannot continue due to young people away from hometown. China should make more preparations as early as possible to face aging problem of the rural areas with under-developed and disadvantaged elderly welfare. Then, this paper compare China with Japan, describes regional aging differences, the relationship with the internal migration and regional aging, and universal social security system in Japan in term of solving the aging problem. China should get favor from the development experience of Japan. 1 Introduction After the economic reform and rapid development in coastal areas of China, an increasing flow of labor from rural to urban, and from economically less developed to more developed areas have lasted nearly three decades. China has experienced the largest migration flow in history, mainly driven by regional economic and demographic disparities. While fast industrialization in coastal areas produced enormous and long-lasting demand for labor, especially among the labor intensive industries, policy relaxation and reform removed rural-urban barricades for temporary migration and lowered migration cost and risk. Agriculture modernization and mechanized farm work have released more rural labor. Parallel with the economic development and modernization,

2 coastal area and large cities led the demographic transition and stayed at low fertility since the 1990s. With rapid economic development and ever shrinking youth population, the demand for migrant labor has been very strong. Migration has made a great contribution to economic growth in China, meanwhile changing the population distribution and the population structure of both origin and destination. Migration has also significantly changed urban-rural composition in China, since the major migration flow is from rural to urban. The urbanization process in China has been closely related to the changes in migration and related policies. China experienced slow increase in the urban population proportion during the first three decades of people s republic, from 13.3% in 1953 to 20.9% in 1982 (NBS, 2011). But the situation changed dramatically in the following three decades, as shown in Table 1. Table 1 Percentage of population residing in urban areas, China, Year Percentage Year Percentage Year Percentage Note: The percentage was 52.6% in 2012 by NBS of China. Data after 2015 is projected by UN. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. Although different factors contributed to the increase of urban residence, including natural increase, definition change in statistics and enumeration 1, in-migration and the settlement of temporary migrants was undoubtedly the most significant factor. As estimated by Chan et al. (2008), in-migration made up a major component of urban growth in China after 1978, especially during , with 88% of urban growth attributed to net in-migration. A most recent study by Wang and Huang (2014) estimated that migration has increasingly made more contribution to urban population growth over the last two decades. The shares of urban population growth by natural growth, administrative boundary change, and migration were 33.5%, 41.88%, and 24.77% in 1991, and were 9.22%, 17.55%, and 73.23% in The share of migration surpassed share of natural growth in 1993 and share of administrative change in 1996, and became a dominate power in urbanization. By the year of 2010, the urban population reached 63.5% along the coastal 1 The definition of urban in China has changed over time. China adopted an approach much clearer and more consistent with internationally accepted practice since the 2000 population census. The inclusion of de facto residence, rather than by household registration only, also included more urban residents than before. The current definition of urban has been enacted since August 1, 2008 ( Urban Rural Definition for Statistics, refer to the website of National Bureau of Statistics,

3 provinces and municipalities, which attracted 77.7% of national total cross-provincial migrants (estimated from tabulations provided by NBS, 2012). From the late 1950s to the early 1980s, the migration was small in size due to the strict management of the planned economy, coupled with rigid administration of the permanent household residence system. There was only a few millions of the migrants in China in the early 1980s. There were only 6.57 million migrants according to estimation based on the data of the 3rd Census in 1982 which accounted for only 0.66% of China s national population. Since the mid-1980s, China s migration has experienced a period of rapid growth because the State Council released in 1984 a document entitled Notice on the Issue of Farmers Entry and Settlement in Towns, which loosened, to some extent, the control of farmers to enter urban areas. As a result, the migration soared to 18.1 million in Since then, the momentum of growth of the migration has become irresistible, and the destinations of the migration were mostly in medium-sized and large cities. From 1982 to 2005, the size of China s migration has increased from 6.6 million to 150 million, up 21.4 times in two decades. So it is safe to say that currently all the problems related to migration can be traced directly to the large number and rapid growth of migration. At the same time, with the fertility declining, China is facing a problem of rapidly aging population. This is a serious challenge for socio-economic development. The sixth census in 2010 show that proportion of the population aged 65 and above accounted for 8.87%, increased by 1.91 percentage points than 2000 (see figure 1). According to the latest data, by the end of 2013, the population aged 60(65) and above accounted for 14.9% (9.7%) of the total population. It will increase to 31% (23%) in 2050.The most serious is that less developed regions will face the challenge earlier because of migration. Figure 1 Proportion of the aged 65 and above in total population, 1982~2012 Source: China statistical yearbooks, 2013

4 Population aging is caused by decline in fertility and increase in life expectancy. Fertility in urban areas is lower than in rural areas, and life expectancy in urban areas is longer than in rural areas. However, the level of aging in rural areas is higher than in urban areas. With urbanization, young people in rural areas move to urban areas, making the level of aging in urban areas drop, and increase the level of aging in rural areas. Beginning in 1982, the aging Index (accounted for a percentage of population aged 65 and above in total population) in rural areas was 5.0%, higher than in urban areas(4.5%). The rural- urban gap had been widening till now, as much as 2.3 percentage points in Meanwhile, a large number of young labor migrate from underdeveloped rural areas to developed urban areas, making the regional pattern of aging change, accelerating population aging process of underdeveloped rural areas. Affected by this, the age structures of urban areas in Shanghai, Zhejiang are becoming younger. Therefore, the less developed rural areas may suffer the problem of aging first. The labor migration intensified its aging process, so the situation of old before getting rich become more urgent, the traditional model of home-based care for the aged cannot continue due to young people leaving home. Moreover, the underdeveloped central and western rural areas are relatively weak in economic development and social security system. The social system and other issues backwards make more challenges to response to the aging population. This paper describes the most recent profile of internal migration in China by using census data, highlights the changes in the first decade of 21st century by comparing it with earlier census results, and analyzes the impact of migration on population age structure in major sending and receiving provinces. Based on the above background, this paper measures the impact of migration and urbanization on regional aging. Meanwhile, Japan also experienced rapid demographic changes, rapid urbanization, and the aging problem of less developed rural areas. Japan has a wealth of experience. China should learn from these experiences to prepare for the underdeveloped central and western rural areas. So this paper compares regional aging differences of Japan and China; find out the solution with pension, health care and other social security system and social management system of underdeveloped areas or rural areas. 2 Data definition and sources Taking into consideration the characteristics of the previous national population censuses and surveys, this paper uses the status of registered household residence (take hukou for short hereafter) as a symbol to define the migration. The definition of migration in China is not only related to time and space of people s move, but also related to the hukou status, that is, household registration status. The migration refers to those who have changed their regular places of residence, but kept their places of permanent household residence unchanged.

5 Initiated for registration of vital statistics but added function of control urban population, the household registration system was developed in 1958 and implemented after 1959 nationwide. A hukou status not only defines a person s rural or urban identity, as many authors have pointed out, but also identifies a person s residence locality. Many other roles had been added to the hukou status over time, including social benefits and employment opportunities. The identity is closely related to opportunities of education, employment, housing, as well as entitlement of social welfare and public service. As related policies, regulations and benefits vary by province and by city, a hukou identity has a strong influence on one s work and life. Some functions had been separated from hukou status after reform, especially after 1990s. Change of hukou status from rural to urban or from elsewhere to large cities have been strictly limited since the establishment of hukou system. Migration with hukou change is mainly for marriage, following family, and due to officially permitted work shift (of state employees). Migration with hukou change has been enumerated separately from migration without hukou change in the population census, and is also recorded by the hukou registration system (managed by Ministry of Public Security). The size of migration with hukou change has been relatively stable at less than 20 million annual flow for decades. Migration without hukou change was firmly controlled before the 1980s. The management gradually relaxed thereafter, especially after People who move across county or city boundaries without hukou change and leave their household registration origin for more than half a year have been regarded as temporary migrants ; they are also be referred to as floating population in some literatures. Although different data sources reported different enumeration results on temporary migrants (Chan, 2012), they can be identified clearly and consistently in the population census and intra-census 1 percent population survey. In this paper, we use migrant (instead of temporary migrants) for those whose current residence at the time of the census is not the same as their hukou registration place (meaning that they moved across administrative boundaries without hukou change), and has left the hukou registration place for six months or longer. This excludes those whose residence differs from registration address within a city since they are actually not migrants. The data source for this paper is mainly China s population census data published by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for year of 2010 (the 6 th census),2000 (the 5 th census), 1990 (the 4 th census) and 1982 (the 3 th census).as the items in previous population censuses and surveys are slightly different from each other, there are some differences in the connotations of the migration in each population census. The following are some instances: In the 3rd Census, the migration is defined, in terms of the status of household registration, as the people who have lived locally for over one year and kept their permanent household

6 residence elsewhere and those who have lived locally for less than one year but left their permanent household residence for over one year. In the 4th Census in 1990, the migration refers to those who have lived in this county or city for more than one year but with their permanent household residence located elsewhere and those who have lived in this county or city for less than one year, but left their permanent household residence for over one year. In the 5th Census in 2000, the migration refers to those who have lived in this town or sub-district for more than half a year with their permanent household residence kept at other towns or sub-districts and those who have lived in this town or sub-district for less than half a year, but left their permanent household residence for over half a year. The 6th Census in 2010 keeps the similar definition as the 5th Census. 3 The internal migration in China: a profile 3.1 The size and distribution of migration The number of migrants increased during the past 3 decades, with an accelerated speed in the late 1990s. Figure 1 shows the number and average annual rates of increase of migrants in China from 1982 to The number increased from 6.57 million in 1982 and reached a historical million during , about 17% of total population. The number of migrants is still increasing; there were 236 million migrants in 2012, an increase of 6.69 million compared to the end of 2011, according to 2012 National Economy and Social Development Statistics released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2013). In the large receiving cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing, about 40% of residents are migrants Migrant numbers (in million) Annual increase rate (average increase over the enumeration period) Year Figure 2 Number of migrants and average increase rate, 1982~2010 Source: data for , Duan, et al., 2008, estimated from population census and one percent population survey; data for 2010, Population Census Office/NBS, Most migrants are young workers moving from rural to urban areas for work there were

7 150 million migrants from rural areas in The proportion of rural migrants was 54% in intra-provincial migration, and nearly 82% in inter-provincial migration. Table 2 provides an estimation of migrants by their origin and destination using four categories: (1) migrate from rural to urban; (2) from rural to rural; (3) from urban to rural; and (4) from urban to urban. The major flows nationwide are from rural to urban (52.7%) and from urban to urban (34.4%). However, a large proportion of migrants move across provincial boundaries from rural to urban (67.0%), while 42.9% who move within the province from one city to another. Table 2 Types of migration by original and destination Urban-urban Rural-urban Rural-rural Urban-rural Sub-total Total migrants Intra-provincial Inter-provincial Note: estimated by long-form of 2010 Census. Origin is defined by 1 township and 3 village of town and urban origin is 2 residence committee of town and 4 street in household registration type (item R10 in census form). And destination is defined by current residence category. Source: Population Census Office/NBS, Migrants tend to concentrate in coastal provinces. The data from the 3rd Census in 1982 show that in the early phase of the emergence of the large migration, 8.60% of the migration moved to Heilongjiang Province, followed by Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces which attracted respectively 6.31%, 5.39%, 5.06% and 4.85% of the total migrants. In the same period, Liaoning and Jilin provinces have also absorbed 4.37% and 3.83% of the total migrants. The above provinces attracted 38.4% of the total migration. Additionally, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi with abundant natural resources attracted a large number in the 1980s. In 1987, the migration attracted by the three provinces accounted for 18.46% of the total migration, only next to the migration size in Guangdong Province. From 1982 to 2000, the percentage of the migrants moving to Northeast China in total migration dropped from 16.8% to 7.6%, and the percentage of the migrants moving to Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi fell from 12.0% to 5.03%. Meanwhile, more and more migrant workers flocked to the coastal areas, such as the Pearl River Delta (Guangdong Province) and the Changjiang Delta (Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces). During , the percentage of the migrants working in Guangdong Province rose quickly from 5.23% to 22.37%, and the total percentages of the migrants in Changjiang Delta increased from 11.27% to 20.58%.

8 Figure 3 Inter-provincial migration flow, 2005 Source: Population Census Office/NBS, The main migration destinations have always been eastern and coastal areas (figure 3). The Pearl River Delta attracted large numbers of labor migrants in the 1980s and early 1990s, and the number of in-migrants in Guangdong has been the largest. More than half of the residents in some cities of Guangdong such as Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Zhongshan are migrants. However, the migrants are highly sensitive to economic changes, and some new trends have been observed in recent years. The attraction of Changjiang Delta (including Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang) has grown stronger and the rate of increase of in-migrants to this area was higher than that of Pearl River Delta in the last decade, with Zhejiang experiencing the highest rate of increase. Some scholars concluded that the center of gravity for immigrant distribution has moved from the south to the north, and Changjiang Delta metropolitan area has replaced Pearl River Delta metropolitan area as the new main immigration destination in the 21st century (Wang, et al., 2012). The cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Suzhou have the fastest in-migration increase in the first decade of the 21st century (Yu, 2012). The major sending provinces are still Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, and Sichuan as always, and along with Guizhou, they made 63% of out-migration nationwide. While Anhui and Henan had the largest increase of out-migration flow and Guizhou had a very high rate of increase over a decade, the stock of out-migration of Sichuan has remained relatively stable at 4~5 million. Although Guangdong is a major receiving place, it had the highest rate of increase of out-migration during Economic factors are one of the main forces leading migration flow. Cities with high income and high GDP per capita are more likely to remain as destinations of large migration flow. The first tier of GDP per capita (about 10 thousand dollars and above) provinces in 2012 including Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Inner-Mongolia, and Zhejiang (Table 3), are all major inter-provincial migration destinations except Inner-Mongolia. They attracted 45% of

9 inter-provincial migrants nationwide in (the share of Guangdong alone is 25%). The in-migration rates of Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang are the three highest among all provinces. The growth of in-migration of Tianjin and Fujian was most significant during this period, obviously related to the development of a new coastal economic zone in Tianjin and the Fujian-Taiwan economic zone in Fujian. Table 3 Four groups of provinces by GDP per capita in 2012 GDP per capita ($) Province/municipal cities >10,000 Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Inner-Mongolia, Zhejiang 6000~9000 National average: 6091 Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong, Jilin, Chongqing, Hubei, Shanxi 4000~6000 Hebei, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Hunan, Qinghai, Hainan, Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Guangxi 3000~4000 Tibet, Yunnan, Gansu, Guizhou Source: Adopted from: Liu, Shucheng The gradient development and urbanization: two driving forces of future economic development in China. Chinese Social Sciences Today, April 10, A06. The economic factor is also a driving force of out-migration. The first three provinces with highest out-migration rate, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Guizhou, had relatively lower GDP per capita in third and last tier (below five thousand dollars), while other major sending provinces as Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, and Sichuan are all in the third tier. Demographic factors also influence migration. A provincial level multivariate migration study (Wang et al, 2012) found that population size of origin is the second most influential determinant of migration (it is actually the most significant determinant of out-migration, given that the most significant pull factor is urban expendable income per capita). Almost all the major sending provinces mentioned earlier have a large population size with higher population density and higher proportion of rural residence. Above all, they are the provinces with later demographic transition and higher fertility among the rural population, hence they have adequate young labor to send. By contrast, most of the receiving cities and eastern rural areas are in the post-demographic transition phase and some even experienced negative population growth in the 1990s. They are the first areas to enter the era of population aging as well. They have a strong demand for young labor to maintain the rapid and ongoing economic growth. Figure 4 shows the net inter-provincial migration and intra-provincial migration by province/municipal cities. Guangdong is a province with a large migration in-flow and also large intra-provincial migration, and it has been experiencing a fast increase of out-migration flow in recent years, reflecting the high sensitivity of migrants to economic change. Shandong and Sichuan have very large intra-province migration flows due to local economic growth and demographic change. Both Sichuan and Shandong had below-replacement fertility in 1990, and

10 the TFR further fell to below 1.5 in 2000 (NBS and EWC, 2007). Inter-provincial net migration (in million) Shanghai Beijing Fujian Zhejiang Hunan Hubei Anhui Henan Jiangsu Shandong Sichuan Guangdong Intra-provincial migration (in million) Figure 4 Intra- and inter-provincial migration flow (in million), Source: Population Census Office/NBS, To summarize, the volume of internal migration in China during was unprecedentedly large, was focused on three major destinations in eastern China, and showed some minor changes in geographical pattern. 3.2 Composition of migrants and changes The migrants are young, mostly aged 15~30, with a very high proportion aged 20~24 (see Figure 5). The structure is related to the age structure of the total population and the change of migration timing in recent years: the age group 20~24 in 2010 is significantly larger in size than the preceding and following age groups; with more youth completing 9-year compulsory education or spending even more years in formal education, migrants in the younger age group shrank significantly and there might be a cumulative effect due to a delayed age of out-migration. A large proportion of married migrants do not bring their children along, and therefore there are few children under age 15 in the migration stream, leaving a series of problems relating to the left-behinds in their rural home ~64 55~59 50~54 45~49 40~44 35~39 30~34 25~29 20~24 15~19 10~14 5~9 0~4 Men Women Figure 5 Age structure of migrants, 2010 (percentage of total migrants) Source: estimated from Population Census Office/NBS, The age distribution of migrants has changed over the last three decades along with the

11 increase in numbers. It is no longer composed mostly of working girls and working boys as the proportion of married couples has increased, and more couples live at the destination with their children. The median age of migrants increased from 23 in 1982 to 29 in % of migrants left their hukou place for 6 years or more; in Shanghai and Beijing this was even higher, about 32% and 30% respectively. Those who stay longer at the destination made an important contribution to the growth of migrants. The rate of increase of migrants aged 35 and above is much higher than for the younger age groups (see Figure 6). Rural people who migrated out in early years have become long-term settlers in cities, some of their children also joined in the urban labor market. The two generations are still identified as migrants or migrant workers, however some of the youth actually grew up in the city and never worked in farms. Percentage increase in number of migrants ~4 5~9 10~14 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~ Age group Figure 6 Percentage increase in number of migrants by age group, Source: Estimated from 2000 and 2010 population census. Nearly half of migrants are women. The migrant population in 2005~2010 is more gender balanced than in earlier years in the 15~30 age group (Figure 7). Such a change is due to the delay of migration timing among young women, who now tend to migrate out at the same age as young men, whereas before 2005, young women on average always migrated out at a younger age than young men. Figure 7 Sex ratio of migrants by age, 2000~2010 Source: 2000 and 2010 population census, % population sample survey.

12 The age pattern of inter-provincial migration is shown in Figure 8. Migration rate rises dramatically after age 18 for both men and women, and it reaches its peak of above 14% around age 23~26 for men, and above 12% around age 20~24 for women. The change in migration timing is obvious from the inter-provincial migration age pattern, where migrants mainly move from rural to urban areas for work. There are several possible causes for women to migrate out at an older age than before: narrowed gender gap in compulsory and post-compulsory education, more families willing to invest in education for girls (due to either fewer children in the family or more resources available), better employment opportunity for higher educated youth, and delayed age at first marriage. However some young men seem to migrate out younger than before, which might be related to the continuous wage growth for migrant workers in recent years (National Rural Fixed Site Survey Office, 2011). Observation in less developed areas revealed that rural boy students who are more likely to drop-out from middle school are those with lower academic scores or from poor families (Yi, et al, 2011). Migration rate (%) Men 2005 Women 2010 Men 2010 Women Figure 8 Migration rates by age and sex, inter-provincial migration, 2005~2010 Source: 2010 population census and % population sample survey. Figure 8 also shows a higher migration rate in older age groups in 2005~2010, implying the trend of settling in the destination whereas circular or seasonal migration pattern has become less popular. Meanwhile, women still return to their hometown earlier than men, mainly for family reasons such as getting married, having a baby, or taking care of school children. However, the proportion of women moving for work increased significantly during the first decade of the 21 st century, with a rise of 10 percentage points (the increase is even more significant among inter-provincial women migrants, from 60% to 79%). Most migrants have nine-years or more of formal education (Table 4);and the proportion of inter-provincial migrants having post-compulsory education increased significantly during 2000~2010,while the proportion of intra- and inter- provincial migrants with primary or lower education fell by 2.5 percentage points and 6.4 percentage points respectively. The improvement in education distribution among migrants is consistent with the education transition nationwide,

13 the effect being most significant for age group 20~24.More employment options and better development opportunities provided mainly by coastal cities are clearly attracting young people with higher levels of education. Table 4 Education distribution of migrants, 2010 (%) Intra-provincial Inter-provincial Age 20~24, national total* Education M F M F M F Primary or lower Middle school High school College or above *Population of age group 20-24, including migrants and non-migrants Source: Population Census Office/NBS, Corresponding to the change in education attainment among young migrants, change in occupation shows a slight increase in the proportion of professional and technical personnel among inter-provincial migrants, and a decrease in the proportion of workers engaged in farming, especially among intra-provincial migrants (Table 5). As a response to the structural change in the economy and also contributing to the change, more migrants in 2010 worked in tertiary industries. Table 5 Difference in percentage on occupational distribution of migrants, 2000~2010 (percentage point*) Occupation Intra-provincial Inter-provincial Head of government, parties, enterprises, Professional and technical personnel Office staff Workers engaged in commerce and service trade Workers engaged in farming, forestry, Workers engaged in industrial production, transport, *The listed values are percentage point differences, which is equal to the percentage of migrants who working in the occupation in 2010 minus the percentage of 2000 of the same occupational share. Source: Zheng, 2013, estimated from 2000 and 2010 population census. 4 The impact of migration on regional aging 4.1 Regional aging in China The large flow of young labor to eastern and coastal cities, with a large proportion staying long-term, would obviously change the population size and structure of both origin and destination. Some of the socio-economic and demographic impacts of the change are observable in a relatively short period, while others will take longer.

14 Rural to urban migration is a major driving force of urban population growth. Fertility has been very low in most cities, where TFR is nearly 1 or even lower. The momentum accumulated before 1980s has worn out, and natural population growth of cities is less important. The number of urban residents came to exceed rural residents since 2011 in China, and rural-urban migrants made a great contribution to this historical turning point. Such a phenomenon has also been observed in other developing countries such as in Thailand and Indonesia, where rural to urban migration contributed 80% and 68% to urban population growth respectively (Economic and Social Council, United Nations, 2013). Stark differences exist for the aging of different regions in China. It is commonly viewed among the international demography, that if the percentage of population over 65 years old in one country or economic entity out of its total population is bigger than 7%, it means that this country or economic entity has already stepped into the aged society. In light of this standard, in 1990, only Shanghai was already in the aging society, with the proportion of 65 years old and above of total population in 9.38%. Whereas, in later 2000, although Shanghai was still in the leading position in terms of aging level (11.46%), provinces whose aging level was over 7% included Zhejiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Chongqing, Liaoning, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangxi etc., meaning that over 1/3 provinces in China had stepped into the aged society, most of those provinces came from the eastern and middle parts of China, population age structure for the western part of China was relatively younger. In 2010, this aged phenomenon began to expand from the eastern coastal areas to the western inland areas of China. Most regions of China have entered into the aged society, among all 31 provinces in China, only in Guangdong, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Qinghai and Tibet, the aging level is lower than 7% (see Figure 9). Figure 9 Regional aging rate (65+), 1990~2010 Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 population census. Within the first decade of the 21st century, the middle-western areas of China became the first echelon with highest aging level; migration has exerted relatively huge influences on the population age structures among regions. With large quantity of young adults going out, aging

15 process in the middle-western regions of China has been extremely speeded up, which is especially typical in Chongqing, Sichuan and Anhui etc. On the contrary, due to large quantity of young labors flushing in, aging process in the coastal areas has been significantly alleviated. For instance, from 2000 to 2010, aging level in Shanghai was not increased but reduced by 1 percentage point; aging level from 2000 to 2010 for Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong and Zhejiang has only been increased by less than 1 percentage point (see Figure 10). During During Figure 10 The increase percentage of aging rate (65+) Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 population census. Due to influences of migration, aging process in the middle-western parts of China is speeding up, which is particularly evident in the rural areas. From 1990 to 2000, the fastest aging process occurred in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Liaoning etc. Whereas, in , the fastest aging process took place one after another in Gansu, Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Qinghai, Hubei, Shaanxi, Jilin, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The lowest aging process took place in Beijing and Tianjin, in Shanghai, aging process during this decade was reduced by 12.3%, which was obviously related to flushing in of large quantity of young labors from those areas (See Figure 11). If viewed from the perspective of urban area and rural area, influenced by migration within respective provinces, aging level during 2000 to 2010 in the urban areas of the eastern and middle parts of China was not so pronounced; whereas, aging level in the rural areas of the middle and western areas was rocketing; similarly, movement of large quantity of labors from the rural areas to the urban areas in those coastal provinces of the eastern and southern areas is also popular, due to this, aging process in the rural areas in the eastern and southern coastal provinces is also speeding up.

16 Urban areas Rural areas Figure 11 The increase percentage of aging rate (65+) during Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 population census. Concluded from the above, that regional structures divided by aging level in China present the following characteristics: First, for large city such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, starting point for their aging process is relatively high, increasing rate is higher; with influences of emigration of large quantity of labors, no matter in the urban areas or in the rural areas, their aging process has all been restrained significantly. For instance, in 1990 in Shanghai, its aging level was the highest in the entire China, even its aging rate in the rural areas reached 8.40%. From 1990 to 2000, aging rate in the urban areas of Shanghai had been increased by 1.45 percentage point, while aging rate in the rural areas had been reduced by 4.22%; from 2000 to 2010, aging rate for the urban areas and rural areas of Shanghai had been reduced by 1.42 and 0.48 percentage point respectively. Second, for such developed provinces as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong, their aging level was relatively higher. But inflow labors had alleviated their aging process; whereas, due to large scale of migration from rural areas to urban areas within those provinces, aging process in their rural areas was also rocketing. In 1990, aging rate in Zhejiang and Jiangsu was over 6% and was one of the highest in China. From 2000 to 2010, aging rate in the urban areas of Jiangsu Province had only been increased by 1.58 percentage point, while aging rate in the urban areas of Zhejiang had been reduced by 0.09 percentage point which was attributed to migration. Whereas, in 2010, aging rate in the rural areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was as high as 13.58% and 12.97% respectively, separately 3.77 and 2.38 percentages point higher than that in Third, the aging process in middle and western provinces had been fast, especially in the rural areas. From 1990 to 2000, aging rate for the rural areas in Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei and Anhui had been increased by 2.14, 2.24, 1.19 and 2.43 percentage point, faster than that of the

17 urban areas for the same period. In addition, during 2000 to 2010, aging process in such middle and western provinces as Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei and Anhui topped the list. The aging rate from 2000 to 2010 for the rural areas of those five provinces had been increased by 4.42, 6.36, 3.03, 3.56 and 3.59 percentage point, much faster than that of their urban areas. Fourth, the age structure of southwestern and northwestern provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia etc which are less developed in economy, was relatively young, and the proportion of elderly was relatively low. Demographic transition process in these areas is slower than the average national level, while their aging rate is lower than the average national level due to their higher fertility level than the eastern areas. But emigrations of these areas exert influences on their age structures. Since all the major sending places are highly populated provinces, the impact of out-migration on change in population size of origin is small relative to the impact of in-migrants to the major destinations, especially to the three in-migration centers. For example, Beijing has tried very hard to control urban population size for several decades but the target is always difficult to reach. The City Plan of Beijing 2004~2010 envisages control of the long-term resident population of Beijing to under 18 million by 2010, but the population census result of the same year shows that Beijing current residents are more than million. Shanghai also has been facing the dilemma of urban population capacity and economic development ~89 80~84 75~79 70~74 65~69 60~64 55~59 50~54 45~49 40~44 35~39 30~34 25~29 20~24 15~19 10~14 5~9 0~ Local M Migrant M Local F Migrant F Figure 12 Resident age structure of Shanghai by household registration status, 2010 (in 10 thousand) Source: 2010 population census of Shanghai, from website of Shanghai Statistical Bureau, However, such a large flow of in-migration is needed for sustaining economic development in these mega-cities. Figure 7 shows the age structure of local residents and in-migrants, and we

18 see that the size of 20~39 age group migrants is much larger than that of residents with a local hukou. The mega-city is lively and the economic growth is sustainable because of the young in-migrants. The figure also shows that the number of local residents under age 20 is shrinking, and they cannot replace older age groups exiting the labor force. Therefore Shanghai still needs more in-migrants to fill the gap to maintain its economic growth in the future. The Shanghai story is representative of other eastern cities. The out-migration from middle and western rural areas contributed greatly to the rise the aging rate, though, as young rural residents moved to cities, this slowed down the aging process of urban areas. In 1982, the proportion of elderly (age 65 and above) was 5.0% in rural areas, and was 4.5% in urban areas; in 2000 the rural-urban gap in the elderly proportion become wider, with 7.4% in rural areas and 6.3% in urban areas; in 2010 the gap widened further to 2.3 percentage points (see table 6). Table 6 The Difference in percentage of aging between urban and rural areas, 1982~2010 (%) Total Urban Rural Difference Source: 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 population census. With speeding up the aging process, China will face "getting old before getting rich". The impact on regional aging of increasingly active migration will make the situation more complexity. For receiving areas, Immigration can bring abundant labor force to promote local economic development. But for sending areas, the aging of underdeveloped areas will be accelerated, and economic development will be influenced because of the relocation of labor. So the poorer areas will face more serious aging population. Migration contributed to regional differences in the process of aging. Gansu had the fastest aging population during 2000~2010 (the proportion of elder persons in total population increase 64.6%), followed by Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Qinghai, Hubei, Shannxi, Jilin, Ningxia, and Inner-Mongolia, with increasing rate above 40%. Beijing and Tianjin had the lowest increasing rate of 4% and 2%, while Shanghai had increasing rate of -12% in the proportion of elderly (Lin, 2011), obviously due to the large in-flow of young population.

19 4.2 Calculation of the impact of migration on regional aging This paper uses two methods to calculate the impact of migration on regional aging. The first one is estimation of regional aging during two censuses. The steps are as follows: getting the age structure of each region from 2000 census, making a hypothesis of no migration between regions from , closed population of each region. Next, I use the age structure data of each region in 2000 to estimate the age structure in 2010 of each region by cohort, then obtain the anticipated aging rate (65+), which refer to the aging rate with no immigration and emigration. Last, I compare the anticipated aging rate with the actual aging rate in 2010 census, so as to get contribution rate as the degree of influence of migration on regional aging. Table 7 The actual aging rate and expected aging rate in 2010 (65+) Province Expected aging Actual aging Gap(% point) Contribution rate %1 rate %2 3=1-2 rate%4=100*3/2 Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan Chongqing Sichuan

20 Guizhou Yunnan Tibet Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang Source: the 6th population census in In 2010, discrepancies existed between actual aging rates and expected aging rates in lots of provinces (see Table 7). The expected aging rates refer to the aging rates with no emigration or immigration. For most provinces, the expected aging rates is lower than their actual aging rates, expect Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu and Zhejiang etc., where their expected aging rates is higher than their actual aging rates. According to influences of migration on the aging rates of different areas, the total 31 provinces/cities of mainland China can be divided into three categories: (1) Provinces/cities where the aging issue got alleviated due to migration mainly are in the southeastern coastal areas, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang etc which are destinations for immigration. For instance, if no migration took place during 2000 to 2010, the expected aging rate in 2010 for Beijing was 11.16%, which was 2.45 percentage points higher than the actual one. In other words, the aging rate was reduced by 28.15% due to immigration. While for Tianjin, under the case of no immigration, the expected aging rate was 10.41% which was 1.89 percentage points higher than the actual one, meaning that the immigration had made the aging rates in Tianjin lower by 22.18%. Immigration in the Changjiang Delta (Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang province) also alleviate the aging issue, corresponding aging rates have been reduced by 3.16, 0.21 and 0.40 percentage points. Whereas, immigration did not exert significant influences on the aging issue of Guangdong Province with a large number of immigration, there are two possible reasons: one is that the fertility level for indirect estimation may be over-estimated; the other is that a lot of immigrant children could possibly be sent back to their hometowns for education, which could affect the age structures. Better economic climate in Beijing and Shanghai has attracted large quantity of young and vigorous labors that could create and promote local economic development and reduce local aging process. Therefore, those regions that have been benefited from the bonus brought about by population migrated from the other areas shall make good plans for better and fair social welfare and resolve subsequent issues concerning education, healthcare and housing etc for those

21 immigrant population. (2) Provinces/cities where the aging process sped up due to population immigration mostly located in middle and western parts of China, including Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan etc. For instance, in 2010, the aging rate for Guizhou was increased by 1.11 percentage points due to labors outflow, corresponding contribution rate was 12.75%; the aging rate for Anhui was increased by 0.49 percentage points due to youths outflow, corresponding contribution rate was 9.19%; the aging rate for Chongqing was increased by 1.27 percentage points due to emigration, corresponding contribution rate was 10.82%. Similar situation took place in Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei etc. In addition to migrants, due to poor industrialization bases, under-developed economy, insufficient job opportunities, lower payment level, occupation mobility and graduates selection of their jobs in the coastal areas have all influenced local population structure. (3) For some other regions, such as Shaanxi, Ningxia and Jilin etc., migration does not exert striking influences on their aging process. The second method of calculation the impact of migration on regional aging is to let the migrants go back to their origination. First, I get the information of migrants' origination. Second, I put all the migrants back to their origin place, then get another reconstructed aging rate. Third, I compare the reconstructed aging rate with the actual aging rate. According to the contribution rate, migration has promoted the aging process in the middle and western areas. Limited by age selectivity in terms of migration, migrants tend to be consisted of young labors. For the destination areas, aging process can be alleviated because of youngers immigration; whereas, for those other areas, migration of young labors undoubtedly exacerbates their aging process. The entire country can be divided into the following categories of areas (see figure 8). The first category mainly includes those provinces/cities that have been alleviated in terms of aging process due to migration, such provinces are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas, the most striking areas include Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian etc where population flushes in. For instance, in 2000, aging rate for Beijing was reduced 17.35% (by 1.2 percentage points), it was reduced 43.62% (by 3.8 percentage points) in 2010; in 2000 in Shanghai, the aging rate was reduced to 21.77% and in 2010 it was reduced 57.46%; in 2000, aging rate for Zhejiang Province was reduced by 4.73 percentage points and in 2010 it was reduced 21.10% due to immigration of population. The second category refers to such provinces/cities that have much worse issue of aging process due to migration, mainly including Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan etc. in the middle and western areas of China. In 2010, the aging rate for Anhui was 10.23%, with exclusion of the influences of migration, re-constructed aging rate was 8.49%, and population

22 going-out caused 1.29 percentage points higher, representing contribution rate of 12.62%. Further, influences from emigration on the age structures have been more and more significant, the aging rate for Jiangxi Province in 2000 was increased by 0.48 percentage point due to emigration and in 2010 it was increased by 0.80 percentage point, representing contribution rate of 7.68% and 10.48%. The aging rate for Chongqing in 2000 was increased by 0.16 percentage point due to emigration and in 2010 it was increased by 0.93%, representing contribution rate of 2.00% and 7.95%. Similar phenomenon also took place in Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Sichuan and Guizhou etc. Table 8 The actual aging rate and reconstructed aging rate in 2000, 2010 (65+) Province Actual aging rate %1 Reconstructed aging rate %2 Gap(% point) 3=1-2 Contribution rate%4=100*3/ Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Tibet Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai

23 Ningxia Xinjiang Source: the 5 th and 6 th population census in 2000 and The third category refers to such provinces as Tibet, Qinghai and Ningxia etc. from the northwestern areas of China. Although comparing with immigration in the southeastern coastal areas, the scale of inter-province immigration was not so significant, immigration had still exerted certain influences on the age structures in these provinces. In 2010, because of immigration, the aging rate was reduced by 0.55 percentage point in Qinghai, by 0.07 percentage point in Ningxia and by 0.26 percentage point in Tibet. Figure 13 The contribution rate of migration on aging of each province The fourth category refers to such provinces as Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Yunnan etc. Migration has little influences on their aging process and migration primarily takes place internal provinces. In conclusion, according to contribution rate of migration on aging of each province, China can be divided into four types of area. The first region group include the provinces with decelerated aging mainly in the southeastern coastal of China; the second region group include the provinces with accelerated aging mainly in the central south of China; the third region group include the 3 northwest provinces slightly decelerated aging process; the fourth region group include the provinces with slightly accelerated aging mainly in the central north of China. 4.3 Challenges of population aging in the middle and western rural areas Challenge 1: Old before getting rich The most challenging issue for China in the process of aging is getting old before getting rich, meaning that under such relatively underdeveloped economic level in China, both economic

24 and social systems will be encountering huge impact due to acceleration of our aging process with such fast demographic transition. Although China has become more and more aged as developed country, the GDP per capita is only parallel with those middle-income countries. It is not difficult to discern, that aging rates in Japan and the US is parallel with that in China, while their GDP per capita is twice of that in China. From the aspect of region level, the aging rates in the urban areas of eastern China is at the bottom, while their DPI is at the top position (26406 Yuan) which is a lot higher than that in the middle region (18323 Yuan) and in the western region (18159 Yuan), and is even 1.4 times of that in the middle-western regions. The aging rates in rural areas are relatively higher. But the per capita net income for the eastern rural areas is only 9585 Yuan, much lower than the middle and western regions (6530 Yuan and 5247 Yuan). Obviously, our broad rural areas will encounter much worse aging dilemma, especially in the middle and western regions. Table 9 Indicators for Economic Development and Aging in Different Areas Indicators Eastern Middle Western Northeaste area area area rn area Aging rates in the urban areas (%) Aging rates in the rural areas (%) Regional GDP per capita (Yuan) Per capita annual disposable income of urban residents (Yuan) per capita net income of rural residents (Yuan) Source: the aging rates data is from the 6 th Population Census Data of 2010; data for the GDP per capita, urban DPI and the net income per capita in the rural areas is from China Statistical Yearbook of The getting old before getting rich from the perspective of economic development is actually reflected getting old before getting prepared from the field of social development. When the aging issue emerges earlier than social economic development, aging will bring huge pressure to development of social economy. So far, construction of social welfare system in our rural areas is significantly left behind the urban areas, there weren t comprehensive social welfare policies in the rural areas, particularly in aspects related to income distribution, education, healthcare, housing and social security etc. Construction of social security systems particularly in terms of pension and healthcare in the middle and western rural areas are much worse. With this fast aging population caused by this double compressing from demographic transition and labor outflow, no matter in terms of social management and social policy systems such as old-age pension, healthcare, or long-term care and public resource distribution, the entire middle and

25 western rural areas are in the state of getting old before getting prepared. Challenge 2: losing the family Support Family Support of rural elderly almost collapses. The existence of large-scale rural left-behind elderly is significant. Traditional patterns for old-age care have almost collapsed due to outflow of rural labors. In most rural areas, family-care is the most popular manner for old-age care. Whereas, with large quantity of young labors migrating from the middle and western rural areas to the eastern coastal regions, huge drain of rural labors has also been triggered, generating large scale of empty nest families in the middle and western rural areas. According to the statistics in 2000, among all households that carry 60 or over old people, 8.24% of them were living singly, 23.13% were couples, 4.49% were skipped-generations (Sun Juanjuan, 2006). According to the results released by the National Aging Office in 2010, 48.9% of all old people in the rural areas were living in empty nest families. Despite that better economic conditions have been created by working outside youths, a kind of bi-directional losses to daily care and emotional comforting of old people have been triggered. On one hand, due to spatial separation, difficulties have been brought about in terms of offering daily care from young generations to their old parents, thus old people that are living in empty nests families lacking care. On the other hand, young labors leaving home forces those empty nest elderlies to undertake heavy agricultural burdens, housework and babysitting etc. Both of these two aspects have made worse health and care of those empty nest elderlies. Labor migration from rural areas to urban areas has weakened the old-age care function in rural families, supporting resources for the old people have been less and less, emotional demands from old people are difficult to be met, undoubtedly worsening the fragile old-age care system in the rural areas. 5 Comparisons with Japan 5.1 Comparisons of demographic transition with Japan According to the demographic transition theory and with influences of related social economic aspects, the type of population reproduction has been transiting from high birth rate, low mortality and high natural growth rate to low birth rate, low mortality and low natural growth rate. Although this theory was generated based on the empirical analysis towards both birth rate and mortality among population in the west Europe, on the ground of multiple verification made by many demographers, that similar trend in such demographic transition has also been on in many other countries and regions, especially in recent years. As the perspective of fertility level (see Figure 14), In 1950, the total fertility rate (TFR)of females in Japan was already reduced to 3 which was much lower than that of China for the same

26 period (around 5-6); in 1975, TFR of females in Japan was even lower than the replacement level, the same situation took place in China around China have reached their period of low fertility, average TFR is lower than 1.8, with Japan standing at the bottom (1.3). Figure 14 TFR of Females in China, Japan, South Korea and India Data source: World Population Outlook (2010) released by the UNPFA. Figure15 is from the same data source as this diagram without particular explanations. Life expectancy is a comprehensive indicator adopted to reflect both average health and death rate of the population. Back in early 1950, the life expectancy in Japan was over 60 years old, which was much longer than that of China for the same period; in 1965, life expectancy for Japan was over 70 years old and over 80 years old in 1990; in 1970, it was over 60 years old, whereas, in 1990, life expectancy of China was over 70 years old. Figure 15 Life Expectancy at Birth for China, Japan, South Korea and India (years) Since Japan was the first among these four countries to encounter demographic transition,

27 dependency ratio in this country was also reducing with the fastest speed; back in 1965, the dependency ratio in Japan was reduced to less than 50 which had been maintained for over 30 years and had promoted Japan s economic boosting significantly; on the other hand, aging tendency of population was also brought about, which can be demonstrated by the data in 1985, aging rate for Japan was over 10% (see Figure 16); dependency ratio for South Korea began to reduce in an earlier period than China, in 1990, it was lower than 50 and was remained and is expected to be remained until 2025; this process in China is expected to be 10 years later than South Korea; aging rates in China and South Korea is similar, the aging rate for South Korea in 2005 was over 10%, and similar process for China is expected to be 30 years later than Japan. Japan had experienced the rapid urbanization and aging process as China. At present, the urbanization rate of China is roughly equivalent to Japan in And the aging rates of China is almost the same as Japan in 1980 (See figure 16). Similarly, the aging process of underdeveloped rural areas is faster than urban areas. Figure 16 The aging rate and urbanization rate in Japan and China Source: World bank data, Comparisons of internal migration with Japan Japan has also experienced rapid population movement period. The migration peaked at 1970s. Now migration has been stabilized. The internal migration in Japan can be divided into four categories: internal metropolitan areas, from metropolitan to non-metropolitan, from

28 non-metropolitan to metropolitan and internal non-metropolitan areas. Before 1975, the sizes of the two streams of internal metropolitan areas and from non-metropolitan to metropolitan were much larger than the two other streams. Since 1975, all of the migration streams decreased, especially from non-metropolitan to metropolitan. But the stream of internal metropolitan areas still was much larger than the other streams. Figure 17 the size of migration streams, Source: Residents basic account migration report, Ministry of internal affairs and communications Bureau of Statistics, from website of National Institute of Population and Social Security Research: figure share the same data source. The main migration stream in Japan is from non-metropolitan areas to the three metropolitans, which is Tokyo metropolis, Nagoya metropolis, Osaka metropolis. The three migration stream has three climaxes in around , , and The migration stream from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas got the highest peak in the 1960s. Tokyo metropolitan area has been the most important immigration center, still maintained until now. The process of population distribution is earlier about years than China.

29 Figure 18 Immigration sizes of 3 metropolises, Migration in Japan also has the similar characteristics of composition as migration in China. First, young people of years old are more easily to migrate than teen-age youths and elders; second, in the long distance migration, men are more common than women. The age structure information is from survey item residence place of 5 years ago (see Figure 19). It refers to migration during the five years prior to census. The age structure of migrants is young. The most proportion of age group is years old group. The age characteristic is more obvious among the long distance migrants. The inter-prefecture migration tends to be younger. And men have more opportunities than woman. These characteristics are similar with China. Figure 19 the age structure of inter-prefecture migration and total migration As China, migration also affects to regional population aging in Japan, the scatter diagram reveals the relationship between migration and aging, and the prefectural with more immigration have lower aging rates.

30 Figure 20 the relationship between migration and aging, Because of migration, regional differences exist in the population changes of Japan. According to classification of agricultural areas, figure 21 shows a comparison between the population shifts every five years, setting the base at 100 for the population by regional classification in Urban areas and flat farming areas are the areas where the population has risen consistently. However, the population of flat farming areas reaches their peak in 2005 and urban areas reach their peak in 2010; and then declining thereafter. On the other hand, the population of hilly farming areas and mountainous farming areas are already in a state of decline. Regional aging level is also different in Japan. Hilly and mountainous areas are also in a serious aging. The national average rate of aging in 2000 was 17.4%. Yet, in hilly farming areas and mountainous farming areas, this figure were 24.1% and 28.1%. Furthermore, if we look at the rate of increase in aging, the difference between the figures for 2000 and 1990 is greater in hilly and mountainous areas, compared to urban areas and flat farming areas. In the future, there is no change to the fact that mountainous farming areas will have the highest percentage of the aged

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