THE 2012 ELECTIONS A LOOK AHEAD DOUG SOSNIK MAY 31, 2012
|
|
- Barrie Parker
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 THE 2012 ELECTIONS A LOOK AHEAD DOUG SOSNIK MAY 31, 2012 The current economic and political climate suggests that we are headed for a fourth change election in a row. (slide #2) It s not hard to see why. The electorate s continued dissatisfaction with the slow economic recovery, the disconnect between voters priorities and politicians own agendas, and a lack of faith in the ability of our government or public institutions to solve our biggest problems have fueled voters anxiety and frustration levels. With five months to go until Election Day, all incumbents regardless of party are at risk of losing their seats. President Obama is no exception. But buried in all the recent bad news about Obama s vulnerabilities are several underlying indicators that suggest the president remains poised for victory this November. THE 2012 ELECTORATE: DISSATISFIED, DISAPPOINTED AND DISAFFECTED The economic recovery s slow pace has left many voters uncertain about the future. Recent polls confirm the public s continued dissatisfaction with the status quo. Today, the vast majority of voters continue to believe that the country is on the wrong track. (slide #4) A poll conducted by the PEW Center for the People & the Press on April 26 th found that sixty-two percent of the public holds an unfavorable view of the federal government. Americans confidence in public institutions is also down, with Congress ranking dead last among other institutions on the list. (slides #5 and 6) The difficult political landscape at home is complicated by the instability abroad. Increasingly, the global economy has linked the United States fate with that of its world partners. Rising unemployment, staggering public debt, social discord and deep austerity measures have contributed to a growing trend of antiincumbency around the world. Since the start of the recession, eleven European leaders including those in France, Spain and Italy - have fallen victim to the economic crisis. And as the global turmoil continues to play out the president is powerless to control the impact of these world events back home. Other factors at home could play into an already volatile environment. It s possible that Obama s support of gay marriage and the Supreme Court s ruling on the health care law (either striking down all or parts of the law) could impact public opinion and even marginally help in a handful of swing states. But it s very unlikely that these issues or any others will eclipse the economy in voters minds and meaningfully impact the results of the presidential race. THE CASE FOR OBAMA Despite Struggling Economy, Voters Haven t Abandoned Obama: The current economic conditions are hardly ideal for any incumbent seeking re-election. The 8.1% national unemployment rate makes the president s re-election campaign even more difficult. No modern-day president has ever been re-elected to a second term with unemployment this high. And the Conference Board s release of the latest consumer confidence ratings of 64.9% - a five-month low - should be of great concern to the Obama re-election campaign. (slide #7) Nevertheless, elections are about the future and while Americans could hardly be characterized as buoyant, they continue to express more hope than anxiety. Last week s Washington Post-ABC News poll found that a majority of Americans (58% to 38%) are more hopeful than anxious about their personal finances over the next few years. Fifty-one percent said that Obama would do a better job of advancing the interests of the middle class; forty-two percent said that would do a better job.
2 State unemployment and housing data also indicate that the economic picture looks a lot better state, bystate than it does nationally. In April, the unemployment rate decreased in two-thirds of the states. In the twelve states that are considered either toss-ups or in play by the campaign, eight states have unemployment rates lower than the national average, and five have unemployment rates under seven percent. Sales of existing U.S. homes rose sharply in April and a falloff in foreclosures pushed prices higher. Several of the battleground states showed signs of improvement, particularly in hard-hit states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Voters Continue to Blame Bush More than Obama for Economic Problems: Americans understand that the country s economic problems have been long in the making. They haven t forgotten that the economy was already on a downward spiral when Obama inherited it in According to the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, 49% of the electorate continues to believe that Bush is more responsible for the country s economic problems than Obama. Thirty-four percent of the public holds Obama more accountable. This week s NBC-Marist polls conducted in Colorado, Iowa and Nevada show similar results: By margins of twenty points or more, voters blame inherited conditions rather than Obama policies for the current economic conditions of the country. Obama s Favorability Ratings Remain Relatively Strong: Despite voters ongoing angst they have continued to give Obama relatively high favorability marks. The May 27 th Washington Post poll showed Obama s favorability rating holding steady at 52% - a relatively strong rating in the current economic environment, especially when compared to other elected officials ratings right now. s Weakness Apparent in Thin Support Levels: In the same Washington Post poll, s current 45% unfavorable rating is higher than his 41% favorable rating. The long and divisive Republican primary underscored s lack of personal appeal to Republicans in general and his inability to connect with people specifically. Charlie Cook recently noted that by the time sealed the Republican nomination in April during the competitive phase of the primaries he had compiled the lowest share of the national Republican primary results since the beginning of the primary-dominated process in the 1970 s. The primary process also drove up s negatives among Independents. All of this happened at a time when the Republicans primary field will likely go down as one of the weakest in history. The Republican Party s Negative Brand Compounds s Problems: Voters remain sharply negative toward the Republican Party. The May 20 th NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll showed the party with net negative approval ratings. Thirty-three percent of those surveyed approved of the party, while 43% disapproved. These low ratings will be a drag for among Independents and soft Democrats. The Electoral College Map Favors Obama: Obama has an easier path than to gain the 270 electoral votes he needs to win this November. That s in part because the electoral map currently tilts toward Democrats as illustrated by the results of the last few elections. In 2008, Obama won with 365 electoral votes. Clinton was elected in 1992 with 370 electoral votes and again in 1996 with 379. Contrast that with the fact that no Republican candidate has won 300 electoral votes since 1988 despite winning the White House twice. Part of the Democratic advantage stems from the fact that 104 of those votes come from the safe Democratic states of California, New York and Illinois. In at least 38 states there seems to be general agreement about which candidate will win in November. The remaining twelve states are considered to be toss-ups by some political analysts, although many have cut this list down to nine toss-up states. Doug Sosnik 2
3 OBAMA S PATHS TO 270 Earlier this year the Obama campaign laid out several different paths to get to 270 using the 2004 Kerry map as their starting point 246 electoral votes (251 pre-reapportionment). (slide #19) The four most plausible routes are focused on: 1) the West, 2) Florida, 3) the South, and 4) the Midwest. 1. Western Route 2. Florida Route 3. Southern Route 4. Midwest Route Colorado (+9) Florida (+29) Virginia (+13) Ohio (+18) New Mexico (+5) N. Carolina (+ 15) Iowa (+6) Nevada (+6) Iowa (+6) 272 Electoral Votes 275 Electoral Votes 274 Electoral Votes 270 Electoral Votes Doug Sosnik 3
4 ROMNEY S PATHS TO 270 s potential paths to 270 electoral votes are much more limited. The easiest option has been characterized as the option, which starts out with the 2008 McCain map with 180 electoral votes (post-reapportionment), plus three Republican-leaning states (Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina), plus two swing states (Ohio and Florida), and either Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico to reach or exceed 270 electoral votes. s second path requires breaking the Democratic stronghold on the industrial Midwest by capturing either Pennsylvania, Michigan or (all three states have voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections) as a foundation to reach The Route 2. Industrial Midwest McCain 2008 Electoral Votes Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming Indiana (+11) Indiana (+11) North Carolina (+15) Ohio (+18) Virginia (+13) Florida (+29) Ohio (+18) North Carolina (+15) Florida (+29) Either New Hampshire (+4), Iowa (+6), Colorado (+9), Nevada (+6) or New Mexico (+5) MY VIEW OF WHERE THE RACE STANDS TODAY McCain 2008 Electoral Votes 180 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming 1 of 4 of the Following Options: Pennsylvania (+20) Michigan (+16) and Iowa (+6) Michigan (+16) and New Hampshire (+4) (+10), Iowa (+6), New Hampshire (+4) Electoral Votes Electoral Votes Based on the current environment I think that Obama starts out with 237 electoral votes. This map tracks closely with Kerry s 2004 results, but adds New Mexico and moves and New Hampshire to the undecided column. starts with 191 electoral votes, which tracks with McCain s 2008 states (180 electoral votes post-reapportionment), but adds Indiana s eleven electoral votes. The remaining 110 electoral votes in nine states (Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio,, New Hampshire and Iowa) are up for grabs. (slide #20) This week s ad buys by both campaigns and the outside groups supporting them line up closely with this map, with the exception of (facing a recall election next week) and New Mexico (where neither campaign has purchased media). The target states are being saturated by paid media, with the heaviest concentration in Virginia and North Carolina. Doug Sosnik 4
5 Demographic Trends Improve Obama s Chances: In 2008, strong support and turnout among African Americans, Hispanics, younger voters and women delivered the presidency to Obama. The demographic trends that aided Obama in 2008 are even more pronounced in As recently as 1992, white voters comprised 87% of the total vote with their share of the vote down to 74% in (See Slide #24) A recent analysis by William Frey of the Brookings Institute shows how the white vote is becoming a significantly lower percentage of the total eligible vote across the country. Since 2008, white voters have declined by 2.2% of the voter eligible population. This decline of white eligible voters has occurred in every toss-up state, with the exception of Ohio. In Nevada, there has been a 9.2% decline in the white percentage of total eligible voters in just the past three years. The latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau last week shows that the country s population has reached a significant turning point, with the births of Hispanic, Asian, African Americans, and those of mixed race constituting a majority of births for the first time. In the twelve-month period that ended last July, minorities made up 50.4% of the births in the United States. Historically, new and infrequent voters are the least likely to vote in a low-intensity election. The Obama campaign clearly recognizes that voters in general are less enthusiastic this year and that turnout could be a problem. In an effort to engage voters and boost turnout the campaign has invested tens of millions of dollars into the field effort in battleground states rather than plowing this money into paid media. This strategic decision is one of the most significant ones of the entire election cycle, but has been underreported by the media. The attached chart (Appendix A) provides a state-by-state look at the 2008 presidential election results and the conditions on the ground. TWO FACTORS THAT WON T DETERMINE THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTCOME Money: A lot has been written about the unprecedented infusion of money into Super PACs following the Supreme Court s Citizens United decision. There s no question that there will be lots of money spent by both sides. But it s doubtful that money alone will shape the outcome of the presidential. Both candidates and their surrogates will have plenty of money to make their case. The place where money could make a significant difference would be in the Senate and House races, particularly in red and purple states. s Vice Presidential Running Mate: In the weeks to follow there will be a lot of breathless speculation about s pick for vice president. But you would have to go back over half a century to the Kennedy/Nixon election when Kennedy selected Lyndon Johnson as his running mate to find a case where the selection of the vice presidential candidate impacted the outcome of the presidential contest. THE U.S. SENATE AND HOUSE ELECTIONS U.S. Senate: Republican candidates continue to squander their opportunity to pick up a net of four seats they need to take control of the Senate. In the 2010 elections, Republicans tidal wave in the House resulted in a gain of 63 seats, but Republicans failed to take full advantage of the environment in the Senate, limiting their gains to only six seats. Republicans paid a high cost for their poor candidate recruitment, weak fundraising and the Tea Party primaries, and have repeated the same mistakes this cycle. The opportunity costs for continued failure are even higher this year as Democrats fight to hold on to the 23 seats they currently hold this November. (slide #21) Doug Sosnik 5
6 The biggest overall shift in the Senate elections is the growing correlation between how people vote for president and the Senate, without splitting their vote. Gone are the days when Democrats could control the entire Senate delegations in states like North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska where voters overwhelmingly favored the Republican candidate for the presidency. Democrats are most imperiled in strong red presidential states such as North Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri and Montana. The states currently held by Republicans that are most at risk are Massachusetts and Maine that tend to vote Democratic for the president. Hawaii and the remaining purple states of Virginia, Nevada,, Ohio, Florida and New Mexico all face toss-up Senate races. U.S House of Representatives: The 2012 elections will be the first since the 2010 Census reapportioned electoral votes by state. Democrats need 25 seats to take back the House. Even though most analysts predict a net gain for Democrats, it will take a strong Obama performance at the top of the ticket and significant anti-incumbent headwinds for Democrats to pick up enough seats to regain control. (slide #22) THE END GAME THE FINAL FIVE MONTHS At this point it is unlikely that the basic contours of the campaign will change much in the next five months. The economy is likely to continue to experience ups and down, and the turbulence abroad shows no signs of dissipating. Between now and Election Day the presidential election will continue to be close. Despite all the challenges, Obama has improved his overall position in the last six months. And while Obama's job approval is not as high as the 53% that Reagan and Clinton enjoyed at this point in their first term, it is far better than George H.W. Bush's 41% approval rating or Jimmy Carter's 38%. In fact, Obama's current approval rating is identical to George W. Bush's in May of s weak standing can only help Obama. Up until now has failed to connect with voters or articulate a coherent vision for the future. There s no doubt that is a man of faith, family and professional accomplishment, but he has yet to reveal the personal, positive aspects of his life that drive him. He has also gone to great lengths to distance himself from his two most significant professional achievements serving as governor of Massachusetts and his time at Bain Capital. The primary season gave ample time to find his voice and make the case for his presidency. History hasn t been kind to candidates who have headed into the general without a clear narrative about who they are and where they want to lead the country. Last September I wrote a memo that looked at the history of the last five presidential campaigns with an incumbent on the ballot. (memo attached) Based on my look back, I concluded that the presidential campaign would come down to two distinct phases: 1) The referendum phase (the period between the last quarter of year three and the selection of the opposition party s nominee) and 2) The choice phase (the general election period). I made the case that the referendum phase could be determinative for Obama. Even though the referendum phase wouldn t necessarily secure his re-election, it could have effectively ended it. Obama successfully cleared that hurdle in the last six months. Obama s durability in the polls ensures that the election will ultimately come down to a choice between the two candidates, rather than a referendum on his first term. There s no one indicator that points to an Obama victory. Obama s relative popularity, the recognition by the public that he inherited the country s economic problems, s weaknesses as a candidate, and a favorable electoral map should be enough for Obama to secure four more years in the White House making him the fourth president out of the last five to win a second term. Doug Sosnik 6
7 APPENDIX A: TOSS-UP STATE PROFILES Toss-up States Obama 08 Vote (52.9% Nationally) Obama 08 White Vote (44% Nationally) 2012 State Polling Michigan 57.4% 51% 53% Obama/ 39% [PPP, 5/27] New Mexico 56.9% 42% 54% Obama/40% [PPP, 4/22] 56.2% 54% 51% Obama/43% [Marquette, 5/26] Nevada 55.15% 45% 48% Obama/46% [NBC/Marist, 5/24] Pennsylvania 54.49% 48% 47% Obama/41% [Rasmussen, 5/21] Iowa 53.9% 51% 44% Obama/44% [NBC/Marist, 5/24] New Hampshire 54.13% 54% 53% Obama/41% [PPP, 5/13] Colorado 53.6% 50% 46% Obama/45% [NBC/Marist, 5/24] Virginia 52.6% 39% 48% Obama/ 44% [NBC/Marist, 5/20] Ohio 51.5% 46% 48% Obama/42% [NBC/Marist, 5/20] Florida 50.9% 42% 48% Obama/ 44% [NBC/Marist 5/20] North Carolina 49.7% 35% 44% Obama/45% [Survey USA, 5/21] Unemployment Rate (April 12) 8.3% 6.9% 6.7% 11.7% 7.4% 5.1% 5% 7.9% 5.6% 7.4% 8.7% 9.4% Doug Sosnik 7
2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview
2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview ʺIn Clinton, the superdelegates have a candidate who fits their recent mold and the last two elections have been very close. This year is a bad year for Republicans.
More informationAmerican Dental Association
American Dental Association May 2, 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 Heading into the Election Year SLIDE 2 Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. Right Track Wrong Direction WT 80
More informationKey Factors That Shaped 2018 And A Brief Look Ahead
Key Factors That Shaped 2018 And A Brief Look Ahead November 2018 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 Yes, it was all about Trump. SLIDE 2 A midterm record said their vote was a message of support or opposition to
More informationCampaigns & Elections November 6, 2017 Dr. Michael Sullivan. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOVT 2305 MoWe 5:30 6:50 MoWe 7 8:30
Campaigns & Elections November 6, 2017 Dr. Michael Sullivan FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOVT 2305 MoWe 5:30 6:50 MoWe 7 8:30 Current Events, Recent Polls, & Review Background influences on campaigns Presidential
More informationMore State s Apportionment Allocations Impacted by New Census Estimates; New Twist in Supreme Court Case
[Type here] 6171 Emerywood Court Manassas, Virginia 20112 202 789.2004 tel. or 703 580.7267 703 580.6258 fax Info@electiondataservices.com FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Date: December 22, 2015 Contact: Kimball
More informationShould Politicians Choose Their Voters? League of Women Voters of MI Education Fund
Should Politicians Choose Their Voters? 1 Politicians are drawing their own voting maps to manipulate elections and keep themselves and their party in power. 2 3 -The U.S. Constitution requires that the
More information2008 Voter Turnout Brief
2008 Voter Turnout Brief Prepared by George Pillsbury Nonprofit Voter Engagement Network, www.nonprofitvote.org Voter Turnout Nears Most Recent High in 1960 Primary Source: United States Election Project
More informationMatthew Miller, Bureau of Legislative Research
Matthew Miller, Bureau of Legislative Research Arkansas (reelection) Georgia (reelection) Idaho (reelection) Kentucky (reelection) Michigan (partisan nomination - reelection) Minnesota (reelection) Mississippi
More informationTHE 2012 ELECTIONS AND BEYOND SEPTEMBER 14, 2012
THE 2012 ELECTIONS AND BEYOND SEPTEMBER 14, 2012 With the political conventions behind us, we head into the final phase of the 2012 election cycle with Obama maintaining his year-long advantage over Mitt
More informationBackground Information on Redistricting
Redistricting in New York State Citizens Union/League of Women Voters of New York State Background Information on Redistricting What is redistricting? Redistricting determines the lines of state legislative
More informationThe sustained negative mood of the country drove voter attitudes.
3 The sustained negative mood of the country drove voter attitudes. Last Time Mood Was Positive: 154 Months Ago 01/2004: 47% RD 43% WT The Mood of the Country Rasmussen Reports 11/20 11/22: 30% - 58% The
More informationCIRCLE The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
FACT SHEET CIRCLE The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement Youth Voter Increases in 2006 By Mark Hugo Lopez, Karlo Barrios Marcelo, and Emily Hoban Kirby 1 June 2007 For the
More informationTHE CALIFORNIA LEGISLATURE: SOME FACTS AND FIGURES. by Andrew L. Roth
THE CALIFORNIA LEGISLATURE: SOME FACTS AND FIGURES by Andrew L. Roth INTRODUCTION The following pages provide a statistical profile of California's state legislature. The data are intended to suggest who
More informationNew Americans in. By Walter A. Ewing, Ph.D. and Guillermo Cantor, Ph.D.
New Americans in the VOTING Booth The Growing Electoral Power OF Immigrant Communities By Walter A. Ewing, Ph.D. and Guillermo Cantor, Ph.D. Special Report October 2014 New Americans in the VOTING Booth:
More informationThe Electoral College And
The Electoral College And National Popular Vote Plan State Population 2010 House Apportionment Senate Number of Electors California 37,341,989 53 2 55 Texas 25,268,418 36 2 38 New York 19,421,055 27 2
More informationDelegates: Understanding the numbers and the rules
Delegates: Understanding the numbers and the rules About 4,051 pledged About 712 unpledged 2472 delegates Images from: https://ballotpedia.org/presidential_election,_2016 On the news I hear about super
More informationThis report was prepared for the Immigration Policy Center of the American Immigration Law Foundation by Rob Paral and Associates, with writing by
This report was prepared for the Immigration Policy Center of the American Immigration Law Foundation by Rob Paral and Associates, with writing by Rob Paral and Madura Wijewardena, data processing by Michael
More informationThe US Electoral College: the antiquated key to presidential success
The US Electoral College: the antiquated key to presidential success by Rodney Tiffen/ October 2008 T he United States has the oldest surviving democratic constitution in the world. In the context of its
More informationINTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Gender Parity Index INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY - 2017 State of Women's Representation Page 1 INTRODUCTION As a result of the 2016 elections, progress towards gender parity stalled. Beyond Hillary Clinton
More informationEmployment debate in the context of NAFTA. September 2017
Employment debate in the context of NAFTA September 217 1 Take-away points The employment debate in the context of NAFTA Unemployment is mostly a macroeconomic phenomenon; unemployment in the Midwest is
More informationPERMISSIBILITY OF ELECTRONIC VOTING IN THE UNITED STATES. Member Electronic Vote/ . Alabama No No Yes No. Alaska No No No No
PERMISSIBILITY OF ELECTRONIC VOTING IN THE UNITED STATES State Member Conference Call Vote Member Electronic Vote/ Email Board of Directors Conference Call Vote Board of Directors Electronic Vote/ Email
More informationNew Census Estimates Show Slight Changes For Congressional Apportionment Now, But Point to Larger Changes by 2020
[Type here] Emerywood Court Manassas, Virginia 0 0.00 tel. or 0 0. 0 0. fax Info@electiondataservices.com FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Date: December, 0 Contact: Kimball W. Brace Tel.: (0) 00 or (0) 0- Email:
More informationOn Election Night 2008, Democrats
Signs point to huge GOP gains in legislative chambers. But the question remains: How far might the Democrats fall? By Tim Storey Tim Storey is NCSL s elections expert. On Election Night 2008, Democrats
More informationWho Runs the States?
Who Runs the States? An in-depth look at historical state partisan control and quality of life indices Part 1: Partisanship of the 50 states between 1992-2013 By Geoff Pallay May 2013 1 Table of Contents
More informationThe Changing Face of Labor,
The Changing Face of Labor, 1983-28 John Schmitt and Kris Warner November 29 Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 4 Washington, D.C. 29 22-293-538 www.cepr.net CEPR
More information2016 Voter Registration Deadlines by State
2016 Voter s by Alabama 10/24/2016 https://www.alabamavotes.gov/electioninfo.aspx?m=vote rs Alaska 10/9/2016 (Election Day registration permitted for purpose of voting for president and Vice President
More informationCIRCLE The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement. State Voter Registration and Election Day Laws
FACT SHEET CIRCLE The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement State Voter Registration and Election Day Laws By Emily Hoban Kirby and Mark Hugo Lopez 1 June 2004 Recent voting
More informationNORTH CAROLINA GENERAL ASSEMBLY Legislative Services Office
NORTH CAROLINA GENERAL ASSEMBLY Legislative Services Office Kory Goldsmith, Interim Legislative Services Officer Research Division 300 N. Salisbury Street, Suite 545 Raleigh, NC 27603-5925 Tel. 919-733-2578
More informationNominating Committee Policy
Nominating Committee Policy February 2014 Revision to include clarification on candidate qualifications. Mission Statement: The main purpose of the nominating committee is to present the Board of Directors
More informationRace to the White House Drive to the 2016 Republican Nomination. Ron Nehring California Chairman, Ted Cruz for President
Race to the White House Drive to the 2016 Republican Nomination Ron Nehring California Chairman, Ted Cruz for President July 18 21, 2016 2016 Republican National Convention Cleveland, Ohio J ul y 18 21,
More informationCampaign Finance E-Filing Systems by State WHAT IS REQUIRED? WHO MUST E-FILE? Candidates (Annually, Monthly, Weekly, Daily).
Exhibit E.1 Alabama Alabama Secretary of State Mandatory Candidates (Annually, Monthly, Weekly, Daily). PAC (annually), Debts. A filing threshold of $1,000 for all candidates for office, from statewide
More informationVoters and the Affordable Care Act in the 2014 Election
special report Voters and the Affordable Care Act in the 2014 Election Robert J. Blendon, Sc.D., and John M. Benson, M.A. As we approach the 2014 election, we are witnessing an unusual situation. Poll
More informationSMALL STATES FIRST; LARGE STATES LAST; WITH A SPORTS PLAYOFF SYSTEM
14. REFORMING THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: SMALL STATES FIRST; LARGE STATES LAST; WITH A SPORTS PLAYOFF SYSTEM The calendar of presidential primary elections currently in use in the United States is a most
More informationGrowth in the Foreign-Born Workforce and Employment of the Native Born
Report August 10, 2006 Growth in the Foreign-Born Workforce and Employment of the Native Born Rakesh Kochhar Associate Director for Research, Pew Hispanic Center Rapid increases in the foreign-born population
More informationRegional Variations in Public Opinion on the Affordable Care Act
Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law Advance Publication, published on September 26, 2011 Report from the States Regional Variations in Public Opinion on the Affordable Care Act Mollyann Brodie Claudia
More informationDecember 30, 2008 Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote
STATE OF VERMONT HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STATE HOUSE 115 STATE STREET MONTPELIER, VT 05633-5201 December 30, 2008 Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote To Members
More information2015 ANNUAL OUTCOME GOAL PLAN (WITH FY 2014 OUTCOMES) Prepared in compliance with Government Performance and Results Act
Administration for Children & Families 370 L Enfant Promenade, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20447 Office of Refugee Resettlement www.acf.hhs.gov 2015 ANNUAL OUTCOME GOAL PLAN (WITH FY 2014 OUTCOMES) Prepared
More informationSTATE LAWS SUMMARY: CHILD LABOR CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS BY STATE
STATE LAWS SUMMARY: CHILD LABOR CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS BY STATE THE PROBLEM: Federal child labor laws limit the kinds of work for which kids under age 18 can be employed. But as with OSHA, federal
More informationNational Population Growth Declines as Domestic Migration Flows Rise
National Population Growth Declines as Domestic Migration Flows Rise By William H. Frey U.S. population trends are showing something of a dual personality when viewed from the perspective of the nation
More informationIn the Margins Political Victory in the Context of Technology Error, Residual Votes, and Incident Reports in 2004
In the Margins Political Victory in the Context of Technology Error, Residual Votes, and Incident Reports in 2004 Dr. Philip N. Howard Assistant Professor, Department of Communication University of Washington
More informationImmigration Policy Brief August 2006
Immigration Policy Brief August 2006 Last updated August 16, 2006 The Growth and Reach of Immigration New Census Bureau Data Underscore Importance of Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Force Introduction: by
More informationSELA Antenna in the United States SELA Permanent Secretary No th Quarter 2007
SELA Antenna in the United States SELA Permanent Secretary No. 86 4 th Quarter 2007 SUMMARY: TRADE POLICY AND THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Impact of the Election on Issues in 2008 Impact of the Election
More informationTHE STATE OF VOTING IN 2014
at New York University School of Law THE STATE OF VOTING IN 2014 By Wendy Weiser and Erik Opsal Executive Summary As we approach the 2014 election, America is still in the midst of a high-pitched and often
More information2008 Legislative Elections
2008 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey Democrats have been on a roll in legislative elections and increased their numbers again in 2008. Buoyed by the strong campaign of President Barack Obama in many
More information12B,C: Voting Power and Apportionment
12B,C: Voting Power and Apportionment Group Activities 12C Apportionment 1. A college offers tutoring in Math, English, Chemistry, and Biology. The number of students enrolled in each subject is listed
More informationPresidential Election 2016 and its Economic Consequences.
Presidential Election 2016 and its Economic Consequences. Mark Partridge Presented at Economic Analysis of Key Presidential Election Issues October 3, 2016 Swank Chair in Rural-Urban Policy The Ohio State
More informationRepresentational Bias in the 2012 Electorate
Representational Bias in the 2012 Electorate by Vanessa Perez, Ph.D. January 2015 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 3 4 2 Methodology 5 3 Continuing Disparities in the and Voting Populations 6-10 4 National
More informationCRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web
CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Order Code RS20273 Updated January 17, 2001 The Electoral College: How it Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections Thomas H. Neale Analyst, American
More informationCRS Report for Congress
Order Code RS20273 Updated September 8, 2003 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web The Electoral College: How It Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections Thomas H. Neale Government and
More informationUnion Byte By Cherrie Bucknor and John Schmitt* January 2015
January 21 Union Byte 21 By Cherrie Bucknor and John Schmitt* Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 4 Washington, DC 29 tel: 22-293-38 fax: 22-88-136 www.cepr.net Cherrie
More informationThe Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016
The Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016 Democratic Strategic Analysis: By Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Corey Teter As we enter the home stretch of the 2016 cycle, the political
More informationEndnotes on Campaign 2000 SOME FINAL OBSERVATIONS ON VOTER OPINIONS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, December 21, 2000 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Andrew Kohut, Director Endnotes on Campaign 2000 SOME FINAL OBSERVATIONS ON VOTER OPINIONS Overlooked amid controversies over
More informationElection of Worksheet #1 - Candidates and Parties. Abraham Lincoln. Stephen A. Douglas. John C. Breckinridge. John Bell
III. Activities Election of 1860 Name Worksheet #1 Candidates and Parties The election of 1860 demonstrated the divisions within the United States. The political parties of the decades before 1860 no longer
More informationRed Shift. The Domestic Policy Program. October 2010
The Domestic Policy Program TO: Interested Parties FROM: Anne Kim, Domestic Policy Program Director Jon Cowan, President, Third Way RE: The Deciders: Moderates in 2010 October 2010 Amid growing concerns
More informationPurposes of Elections
Purposes of Elections o Regular free elections n guarantee mass political action n enable citizens to influence the actions of their government o Popular election confers on a government the legitimacy
More informationComponents of Population Change by State
IOWA POPULATION REPORTS Components of 2000-2009 Population Change by State April 2010 Liesl Eathington Department of Economics Iowa State University Iowa s Rate of Population Growth Ranks 43rd Among All
More informationMap of the Foreign Born Population of the United States, 1900
Introduction According to the 1900 census, the population of the United States was then 76.3 million. Nearly 14 percent of the population approximately 10.4 million people was born outside of the United
More informationGrowth Leads to Transformation
Growth Leads to Transformation Florida attracted newcomers for a variety of reasons. Some wanted to escape cold weather (retirees). Others, primarily from abroad, came in search of political freedom or
More informationELECTION OVERVIEW. + Context: Mood of the Electorate. + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward?
1 ELECTION OVERVIEW + Context: Mood of the Electorate + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward? + Appendix: Polling Post-Mortem 2 2 INITIAL HEADLINES + Things
More informationFederal Rate of Return. FY 2019 Update Texas Department of Transportation - Federal Affairs
Federal Rate of Return FY 2019 Update Texas Department of Transportation - Federal Affairs Texas has historically been, and continues to be, the biggest donor to other states when it comes to federal highway
More informationHispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West
Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West William H. Frey The Brookings Institution www.frey-demographer.org 2008: Greater Minority Turnout and Share of the Voter Population
More informationAmerican Government. Workbook
American Government Workbook WALCH PUBLISHING Table of Contents To the Student............................. vii Unit 1: What Is Government? Activity 1 Monarchs of Europe...................... 1 Activity
More informationParties and Elections. Selections from Chapters 11 & 12
Parties and Elections Selections from Chapters 11 & 12 Party Eras in American History Party Eras Historical periods in which a majority of voters cling to the party in power Critical Election An electoral
More informationRed, white, and blue. One for each state. Question 1 What are the colors of our flag? Question 2 What do the stars on the flag mean?
1 What are the colors of our flag? Red, white, and blue 2 What do the stars on the flag mean? One for each state 3 How many stars are there on our flag? There are 50 stars on our flag. 4 What color are
More informationMEMORANDUM JUDGES SERVING AS ARBITRATORS AND MEDIATORS
Knowledge Management Office MEMORANDUM Re: Ref. No.: By: Date: Regulation of Retired Judges Serving as Arbitrators and Mediators IS 98.0561 Jerry Nagle, Colleen Danos, and Anne Endress Skove October 22,
More informationCITIZENS RESEARCH COUNCIL OF MICHIGAN IS A 501(C) 3) TAX EXEMPT ORGANIZATION
Citizens Research Council of Michigan 625 SHELBY STREET, SUITE 1B, DETROIT, Ml 48226,3220 (313) 961-5377 FAX (313) 9614)648 1502 MICHIGAN NATIONAL TOWER, LANSING, Ml 48933-1738 (517) 485-9444 FAX (547)
More informationDemocratic Convention *Saturday 1 March 2008 *Monday 25 August - Thursday 28 August District of Columbia Non-binding Primary
Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and s Chronologically http://www.thegreenpapers.com/p08/events.phtml?s=c 1 of 9 5/29/2007 2:23 PM Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and s Chronologically Disclaimer: These
More informationCase 1:16-cv Document 3 Filed 02/05/16 Page 1 of 66 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )
Case 1:16-cv-00199 Document 3 Filed 02/05/16 Page 1 of 66 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, et al., v. Plaintiffs, HSBC NORTH AMERICA HOLDINGS INC.,
More informationRedistricting in Michigan
Dr. Martha Sloan of the Copper Country League of Women Voters Redistricting in Michigan Should Politicians Choose their Voters? Politicians are drawing their own voting maps to manipulate elections and
More informationBylaws of the. Student Membership
Bylaws of the American Meat Science Association Student Membership American Meat Science Association Articles I. Name and Purpose 1.1. Name 1.2. Purpose 1.3. Affiliation II. Membership 2.1. Eligibility
More informationMillions to the Polls
Millions to the Polls PRACTICAL POLICIES TO FULFILL THE FREEDOM TO VOTE FOR ALL AMERICANS VOTER LIST MAINTENANCE & WRONGFUL CHALLENGES TO VOTER ELIGIBILITY j. mijin cha & liz kennedy VOTER LIST MAINTENANCE
More informationDecision Analyst Economic Index United States Census Divisions April 2017
United States s Arlington, Texas The Economic Indices for the U.S. s have increased in the past 12 months. The Middle Atlantic Division had the highest score of all the s, with an score of 114 for. The
More information2016 us election results
1 of 6 11/12/2016 7:35 PM 2016 us election results All News Images Videos Shopping More Search tools About 243,000,000 results (0.86 seconds) 2 WA OR NV CA AK MT ID WY UT CO AZ NM ND MN SD WI NY MI NE
More informationOverview. Strategic Imperatives. Our Organization. Finance and Budget. Path to Victory
Overview Strategic Imperatives Our Organization Finance and Budget Path to Victory Strategic Imperatives Strategic Imperatives 1. Prove to voters that Hillary Clinton will be a President who fights for
More informationAffordable Care Act: A strategy for effective implementation
Affordable Care Act: A strategy for effective implementation U.S. PIRG October 12, 2012 2012 Budget: $26 Objective 1972 Universal coverage 2010 Affordable Care Act enacted Coverage for 95% of all Americans
More informationUnited States: Implications of the Midterm Elections for Economic Policy
KEY INSIGHTS November 15, 2018 United States: Implications of the Midterm Elections for Economic Policy By: Robert F. Wescott, Ph.D., and Colleen Handel Key Insights The 2018 midterm elections in the United
More informationMillions to the Polls
Millions to the Polls PRACTICAL POLICIES TO FULFILL THE FREEDOM TO VOTE FOR ALL AMERICANS THE RIGHT TO VOTE FOR FORMERLY INCARCERATED PERSONS j. mijin cha & liz kennedy THE RIGHT TO VOTE FOR FORMERLY INCARCERATED
More informationNew data from the Census Bureau show that the nation s immigrant population (legal and illegal), also
Backgrounder Center for Immigration Studies October 2011 A Record-Setting Decade of Immigration: 2000 to 2010 By Steven A. Camarota New data from the Census Bureau show that the nation s immigrant population
More information2010 CENSUS POPULATION REAPPORTIONMENT DATA
Southern Tier East Census Monograph Series Report 11-1 January 2011 2010 CENSUS POPULATION REAPPORTIONMENT DATA The United States Constitution, Article 1, Section 2, requires a decennial census for the
More informationComplying with Electric Cooperative State Statutes
Complying with Electric Cooperative State Statutes Tyrus H. Thompson (Ty) Vice President and Deputy General Counsel Director and Member Legal Services Office of General Counsel National Rural Electric
More information820 First Street NE, Suite 510 Washington, DC Tel: Fax: September 26, 2008
820 First Street NE, Suite 510 Washington, DC 20002 Tel: 202-408-1080 Fax: 202-408-1056 center@cbpp.org www.cbpp.org September 26, 2008 KEY COMPONENTS OF HOUSE AND SENATE ECONOMIC RECOVERY PACKAGES WOULD
More informationThe Social Policy & Politics Program. August 13, 2012
The Social Policy & Politics Program August 13, 2012 TO: Interested Parties FROM: Michelle Diggles, Senior Policy Advisor and Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, Director of the Social Policy & Politics Program RE:
More informationMathematics of the Electoral College. Robbie Robinson Professor of Mathematics The George Washington University
Mathematics of the Electoral College Robbie Robinson Professor of Mathematics The George Washington University Overview Is the US President elected directly? No. The president is elected by electors who
More informationSome Change in Apportionment Allocations With New 2017 Census Estimates; But Greater Change Likely by 2020
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Date: December 20, 2017 Contact: Kimball W. Brace 6171 Emerywood Court Manassas, Virginia 20112 202 789.2004 tel. or 703 580.7267 703 580.6258 fax Info@electiondataservices.com Tel.:
More informationSwarthmore College Alumni Association Constitution and Bylaws. The name of this Association shall be Swarthmore College Alumni Association.
Swarthmore College Alumni Association Constitution and Bylaws Constitution Article 1 Name The name of this Association shall be Swarthmore College Alumni Association. Article II Objects Objectives The
More information2010 Legislative Elections
2010 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey State Legislative Branch The 2010 state legislative elections brought major change to the state partisan landscape with Republicans emerging in the best position
More informationLimitations on Contributions to Political Committees
Limitations on Contributions to Committees Term for PAC Individual PAC Corporate/Union PAC Party PAC PAC PAC Transfers Alabama 10-2A-70.2 $500/election Alaska 15.13.070 Group $500/year Only 10% of a PAC's
More informationMost Have Heard Little or Nothing about Redistricting Debate LACK OF COMPETITION IN ELECTIONS FAILS TO STIR PUBLIC
NEWS Release 1615 L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399 FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2006, 10:00 AM EDT Most Have Heard Little or Nothing about Redistricting
More informationState Trial Courts with Incidental Appellate Jurisdiction, 2010
ALABAMA: G X X X de novo District, Probate, s ALASKA: ARIZONA: ARKANSAS: de novo or on the de novo (if no ) G O X X de novo CALIFORNIA: COLORADO: District Court, Justice of the Peace,, County, District,
More informationACCESS TO STATE GOVERNMENT 1. Web Pages for State Laws, State Rules and State Departments of Health
1 ACCESS TO STATE GOVERNMENT 1 Web Pages for State Laws, State Rules and State Departments of Health LAWS ALABAMA http://www.legislature.state.al.us/codeofalabama/1975/coatoc.htm RULES ALABAMA http://www.alabamaadministrativecode.state.al.us/alabama.html
More informationJudicial Selection in the States
Judicial S in the States Appellate and General Jurisdiction Courts Initial S, Retention, and Term Length INITIAL Alabama Supreme Court X 6 Re- (6 year term) Court of Civil App. X 6 Re- (6 year term) Court
More informationThe remaining legislative bodies have guides that help determine bill assignments. Table shows the criteria used to refer bills.
ills and ill Processing 3-17 Referral of ills The first major step in the legislative process is to introduce a bill; the second is to have it heard by a committee. ut how does legislation get from one
More informationCampaign Finance Options: Public Financing and Contribution Limits
Campaign Finance Options: Public Financing and Contribution Limits Wendy Underhill Program Manager Elections National Conference of State Legislatures prepared for Oregon s Joint Interim Task Force on
More informationVOTING WHILE TRANS: PREPARING FOR THE NEW VOTER ID LAWS August 2012
VOTING WHILE TRANS: PREPARING FOR THE NEW VOTER ID LAWS August 2012 Regardless of whether you have ever had trouble voting in the past, this year new laws in dozens of states will make it harder for many
More informationRhoads Online State Appointment Rules Handy Guide
Rhoads Online Appointment Rules Handy Guide ALABAMA Yes (15) DOI date approved 27-7-30 ALASKA Appointments not filed with DOI. Record producer appointment in SIC register within 30 days of effective date.
More informationRural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008
June 8, 07 Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 08 To: From: Interested Parties Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner William Greener, Greener and
More informationPRESS RELEASE. POLIDATA Political Data Analysis
POLIDATA Political Data Analysis DATABASE DEVELOPMENT, ANALYSIS AND PUBLICATION; POLITICAL AND CENSUS DATA; REDISTRICTING SUPPORT CLARK BENSEN POLIDATA 3112 Cave Court, Suite B Lake Ridge, VA 22192-1167
More informationTrump, Populism and the Economy
Libby Cantrill, CFA October 2016 Trump, Populism and the Economy This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been
More informationASSOCIATES OF VIETNAM VETERANS OF AMERICA, INC. BYLAWS (A Nonprofit Corporation)
Article I Name The name of the corporation is Associates of Vietnam Veterans of America, Inc., as prescribed by the Articles of Incorporation, hereinafter referred to as the Corporation. Article II Purposes
More informationIdaho Prisons. Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy Brief. October 2018
Persons per 100,000 Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy Brief Idaho Prisons October 2018 Idaho s prisons are an essential part of our state s public safety infrastructure and together with other criminal justice
More information