2015 ANNUAL OUTCOME GOAL PLAN (WITH FY 2014 OUTCOMES) Prepared in compliance with Government Performance and Results Act
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1 Administration for Children & Families 370 L Enfant Promenade, S.W. Washington, D.C Office of Refugee Resettlement ANNUAL OUTCOME GOAL PLAN (WITH FY 2014 OUTCOMES) Prepared in compliance with Government Performance and Results Act Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 1
2 Summary This report contains national analysis of ORR-funded employability caseloads, employment outcomes, cash assistance terminations and reductions, health benefits offered for full-time employments, average wages; employment retentions at 90 days, cost per job placement and funding used to provide employment services. Report describes each section by providing a map or chart with data and most significant variances and increases or decreases in comparison to a previous fiscal year. Data analyzed in this report is submitted through Annual Outcome Goal Plans by 49 states, District of Columbia and the County of San Diego. Wyoming does not participate in the refugee resettlement program. The intention of this report is to provide national outcomes; to compare states outcomes, and to compare state administered, public-private partnership and Wilson/Fish program outcomes. To provide some context, below map represents most recent data (FY13) of all ORR eligible populations. Final FY14 population data was not yet available to be included in this report. Employability caseload consists of refugees actively participating and receiving specific employability services with a goal to secure a job: employment services, on the job training, English language instruction, and vocational training. Employability caseload does not include refugees who are enrolled in the Matching Grant program. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 2
3 REFUGEE EMPLOYABILITY CASELOAD In FY14, a number of states have experienced increased caseloads due to increases in refugee arrivals resulting in 10% increase of national employability caseload (97,530) over FY13 (89,025). Some of the larger programs with notable increases in caseloads were in Tennessee (59%), Florida (32%), Arizona (32%), Texas (29%), Washington (22%), Ohio (18%), Nevada (14%), Kentucky (13%), and Pennsylvania (12%). The largest caseload decreases of some of the larger programs were recorded in Michigan (-29%), Virginia (-22%), Indiana (-20%), and San Diego W/F (-14%). The following three maps provide a breakdown of the national employability caseload by each of the three categories defined by the type of a case served: TANF, RCA and No Federal Cash. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 3
4 TANF employability caseload in FY14 was 18,377 (19% of the total caseload), representing a decrease from FY13 (19,812) by 7% (1,435). RCA employability caseload in FY14 was 45,362 (46% of the total caseload), representing increase over FY13 (33,742) by a 34% (11,620). Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 4
5 No Federal Cash (NFC) employability in FY14 was 33,791 (35% of the total caseload), representing a decrease from FY13 (35,471) by 5% (1,680). EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES Many states report that employment outcomes were significantly impacted by increased caseloads and prolonged time needed to secure employment for refugees. In some states (Florida, Georgia, New Jersey and Texas) refugees experience significant delays (3-6 months) in obtaining Employment Authorization Documents (EAD) which can have significant impact on employment outcomes, especially in states with large Cuban/Haitian populations such as Florida and Texas. The national employment outcome for FY14 (47%) decreased from FY13 by 2%, mainly due to a significant increase in the caseload and low outcomes in some of the larger programs. It is important to note that 2,199 more refugees were employed in FY14 than in FY13. Refugees are still in competition for entry-level jobs with many unemployed Americans. Temporary jobs, part-time and seasonal jobs are common trends throughout the country for entry level jobs for refugees. Refugees in many states still have to wait longer to get jobs, often work fewer hours than full-time or travel long distances to acquire full-time employment. Even under those conditions more refugees gained full-time jobs in FY14 (37,641) than in FY13 (35,978) and 82% of all employment placements in FY14 were in full-time jobs. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 5
6 The chart below shows employability caseload, refugee arrivals only and entered employment outcome in the last five years. Most improvements in entered employment rates in some of the larger programs in FY14 over FY13 were recorded in New York (17%), North Carolina (16%), Michigan (12%) and Colorado (10%). The largest employment outcome rate decreases in FY14 in some of the larger programs in comparison to FY13 were in Texas and Tennessee (-17%), Washington (-13%), and Maryland (-10%). The next two charts show last five years employability caseload, entered employments, employment retentions, health benefits offered, cash terminations and reductions outcomes in numbers as well as in percentages. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 6
7 Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 7
8 Performance greatly varied among the states in FY14. When compared on the six measurable performance outcomes (entered employment, terminations, reductions, health benefits offered, average wages and job retentions), using average rankings for states with caseloads of 1,000 or more refugees, top five performing states are: 1. Colorado 2. Massachusetts 3. Illinois 4. North Carolina 5. Nebraska When additional elements are included (caseload size and cost per entered employment), same five states are still on the top with a somewhat different order: 1. Colorado 2. North Carolina 3. Massachusetts 4. Illinois 5. Nebraska Overall national outcomes were greatly affected by the performance of the three largest programs (which served 43% of total US employability caseload) and their low national rankings on the six measurable outcomes (44 th Texas, 45 th California, 47 th Florida). When additional elements are included (caseload size and cost per entered employment), California ranks better (23 rd ), rankings slightly increase for Texas (43 rd ), and Florida (40 th ). Note: Different program structures, assistance standards, incentives, thresholds for cash assistance, and additional supports greatly influence these comparison rankings and they should be viewed with these and other state and program specific considerations in mind. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 8
9 CASH ASSISTANCE TERMINATIONS Terminations usually occur as a direct result of full time employment and higher income levels. In PPP states, employed refugees continue to receive full or reduced cash assistance amount until they reach PPP threshold for TANF cash assistance termination or for RCA-type clients until full 8 months (MD, TX). Overall terminations increased by 1% in FY14 in comparison to FY13. Notable increases in termination rates for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Ohio and Tennessee (14%), Michigan (10%), Maryland (8%), and Massachusetts and Pennsylvania (4%). The most significant decreases in termination rates for some larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Washington (-23%), Arizona (-15%), Indiana (-12%), Virginia (- 11%), and Georgia and Nebraska (-10%). Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 9
10 CASH ASSISTANCE REDUCTIONS Reduction as a measure for program success depends on how quickly employment is secured from the point of assistance access and the participant s level of earnings. The increase in reductions usually reflects the decrease in termination rates. Even though earnings and the number of part-time employments also increased (8,473) in FY14 when compared to previous FY13 (7,937), reduction rate fell by 3% to 12% in FY14. In many states, even part-time employment resulted in termination rather than a reduction of grant. Significant increases of reduction rates for some larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Illinois (18%), San Diego WF (7%), and Colorado (6%). The largest reduction rate decreases for some of the larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by New York and Tennessee (-37%), Ohio (-11%), Michigan (-9%), and Pennsylvania and Washington (-8%). HEALTH BENEFITS OFFERED Health benefits offered to refugees who obtained full-time jobs increased from FY13 by 2% to 63% in FY14. In many states, the length of the assignment for full-time jobs is too short to qualify for health benefits. In shortage of full-time jobs, refugees are accepting two or more part-time jobs on temporary or long-term basis. Employers who still offer health benefits usually cover only part of the cost, leaving it up to employees to choose to cover the difference or opt-out of the plan. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 10
11 Notable increases in the health benefit rates for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Oregon (23%), Michigan (16%), San Diego WF (16%), Texas (15%), Illinois (14%), and Indiana and Washington (12%). The largest health benefits decreases for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Arizona (-9%), Nevada (-8%), California (-7%), and New York (-6%). Many states report that this outcome may be significantly impacted by the Affordable Care Act depending how states and employers implement the law. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 11
12 AVERAGE WAGES The increase in FY14 wages can be attributed to the strong efforts made by states to secure more full-time and higher paying jobs for refugees. Fifteen states report average wage over $10.00 per hour and additional 25 states have average wage over $9.00 per hour. Significant increases in average hourly wages for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by New York ($1.64), Illinois ($1.62), Ohio ($0.64), Minnesota ($0.54), Colorado ($0.48), Pennsylvania ($0.37), Nevada and Tennessee ($0.34), and Texas ($0.31). Largest average hourly wage decreases for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 was in Nebraska (-$0.69), while Florida was the only state where average wage remained the same ($8.64). Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 12
13 EMPLOYMENT RETENTIONS Retention rate in FY14 (77%) increased by 2% in comparison to FY13. Retention outcomes are the result of service providers efforts and outreach to maintain good relationship with employers by providing effective coordination, follow-up and intervention. Continuously high retention outcomes can be also contributed to refugees commitment and hard work to keep their jobs in light of the scarcity of jobs in the current market. The most remarkable increases in job retention rates for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Illinois (25%), Indiana (17%), California 15%, New York (11%), Pennsylvania and Massachusetts (9%), Washington (8%) and Kentucky (6%). The most significant retention rate decreases for larger caseloads in FY14 compared to FY13 were reported by Ohio (-40%), Tennessee (-14%) and Virginia (-6%). Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 13
14 COMPARISON BY THE TYPE OF THE PROGRAM As the chart below shows, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program has the best outcomes in terms of average wages, job retentions and full-time jobs health benefits, but at the same time this program has the lowest cash assistance termination and reduction rates. The Wilson/Fish (W/F) program has the highest entered employment rates and cash assistance reduction rates, accompanied with high termination rates, retention rates, and full-time jobs health benefits rates. State Administered program leads in cash terminations, but has the lowest entered employment, retention and health benefits rates. Given the size and flexibility of the PPP and W/F programs, they outperformed the State Administered program significantly in entered employments, while average wages are very similar across the three programs. Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 14
15 With largest employability caseload (69,609), State Administered program secured most employments in FY 2014 (30,359), had most cash assistance terminations (9,631) and had the best cash termination rate (63%), along with the high hourly average wage ($9.47) and high job retention rate (76%) when compared with the other two programs, W/F and PPP. It s entered employment rate was the lowest among the three programs (44%), and similarly it had the lowest full-time jobs health benefits offered rate (57%). PPP had the highest job retention rate (81%), and the highest average wage ($9.75), but also the lowest cash termination (20%) and cash reduction (4%) rates when compared to the State Administered and W/F programs. The W/F program served the smallest number of refugees (13,414), but due to program flexibilities, produced good outcomes in most performance measures (60% entered employments, 60% cash terminations, 16% cash reductions, $9.56 average hourly wage, high 78% retention rate and solid 73% full-time jobs health benefits offered rate. Overall, on the national level, the lower entered employment rate (decrease by 2% from FY13) was affected by under 50% outcomes in the two largest state programs, California (31%) and Florida (38%). Cash assistance termination rates increased by 1% and average wages increased by $0.14 in comparison to FY13, cash reductions decreased by 3%, while retentions increased by 2% over FY13. There was a slight increase in health benefits offered (2%) when compared to FY13. Twenty-five states exceeded their entered employment rate for FY Three states had the same entered employment rate as in FY Also, 25 states increased the termination rate of refugees terminating their cash assistance over the previous year. Twenty-five states improved their job retention rates over the previous year. Retention rates over 90 percent were reported in Louisiana, Iowa, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Alaska, North Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 15
16 Carolina, Nebraska, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Arkansas, Alabama, District of Columbia, and Rhode Island. Also, twenty-nine states improved the rate of refugees entering full time employment offering health benefits. In FY 2014, thirty-nine states improved their average wage from FY Twenty-four states reported higher wages than the average aggregate wage for all states ($9.59). ORR FUNDED EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES BY THE TYPE OF A CASE FY14 Performance also varied for different types of cases, best entered employment outcomes were produced in the No Federal Cash caseload (35% of the total caseload) category (58%). These are clients who are generally longer in the US, already learned some skills and have improved their English. Most cash terminations occurred for RCA clients, while cash assistance was reduced mostly for TANF clients. ORR also tracked the cost per job placement. This measure is the ratio of the total funds used by the state for employment services divided by the number of refugees entering employment during the fiscal year. The average unit cost for all states in FY 2014 was $1, per job placement. This represented a $1.22 increase from the FY 2013 average unit cost of $1, Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 16
17 ORR Funding Liquidated for Employment Services ONLY: Refugee Social Services, Targeted Assistance Formula, Targeted Assistance Discretionary, Cuban/Haitian Funding Employability Caseload State Total FY13 Total FY14 Change FY 2013 FY 2014 Change 1 Alabama $33,588 $37,033 10% % 4 Alaska $70,314 $51,955-26% % 5 Arizona $2,752,036 $2,692,854-2% 1,227 1,616 32% 6 Arkansas $75,000 $75,000 0% % 7 California $7,390,328 $6,731,001-9% 9,884 9,075-8% 8 Colorado $650,000 $810,000 25% 1,486 1,494 1% 9 Connecticut $376,600 $376,600 0% % 10 Delaware $71,216 $71,216 0% % 11 D.C. $199,832 $233,064 17% % 12 Florida $14,083,100 $17,017,129 21% 20,741 27,454 32% 13 Georgia $1,188,752 $1,010,826-15% 2,569 2,734 6% 14 Hawaii $63,601 $56,860-11% % 15 Idaho $680,774 $605,631-11% % 16 Illinois $1,707,192 $1,463,574-14% 2,008 2,047 2% 17 Indiana $2,184,257 $2,426,488 11% 2,074 1,665-20% 18 Iowa $808,992 $876,375 8% % 19 Kansas $384,777 $443,970 15% % 20 Kentucky $909,425 $788,457-13% 2,286 2,589 13% 21 Louisiana $99,474 $119,520 20% % 22 Maine $201,598 $273,944 36% % 23 Maryland $2,105,751 $1,463,475-31% 1,263 1,258 0% 24 Massachusetts $1,703,984 $1,751,049 3% 1,680 1,655-1% 25 Michigan $4,676,658 $4,690,760 0% 4,716 3,361-29% 26 Minnesota $1,808,763 $1,719,600-5% 1,858 1,694-9% 27 Mississippi $71,250 $23,725-67% % 28 Missouri $619,775 $765,228 23% % 29 Montana $0 $3, % 30 Nebraska $473,516 $332,200-30% 1,074 1,041-3% 31 Nevada $350,583 $1,144, % 1,524 1,736 14% 32 New Hampshire $325,000 $344,250 6% % 33 New Jersey $300,000 $234,776-22% % 34 New Mexico $105,600 $86,119-18% % 35 New York $3,984,090 $5,273,101 32% 2,287 2,132-7% 36 North Carolina $1,543,827 $1,653,011 7% 1,955 1,744-11% 37 North Dakota $368,205 $374,012 2% % 38 Ohio $1,763,507 $3,179,355 80% 2,523 2,982 18% 39 Oklahoma $122,783 $146,000 19% % 40 Oregon $630,010 $710,158 13% 1,435 1,474 3% 41 Pennsylvania $3,199,700 $2,485,515-22% 2,029 2,280 12% 42 Rhode Island $205,000 $274,168 34% % 43 San Diego WF $1,721,435 $1,011,295-41% 1,659 1,419-14% 44 South Carolina $68,275 $60,150-12% % 45 South Dakota $528,476 $520,504-2% % 46 Tennessee $1,075,004 $1,194,918 11% 1,127 1,790 59% 47 Texas $5,864,426 $5,482,730-7% 7,539 9,735 29% 48 Utah $649,140 $732,663 13% % 49 Vermont $169,457 $159,029-6% % 50 Virginia $1,764,451 $1,542,923-13% 1,718 1,343-22% 51 Washington $1,827,021 $2,002,941 10% 2,567 3,133 22% 50 West Virginia $24,696 $24,696 0% % 51 Wisconsin $408,205 $550,393 35% % TOTAL / CHANGE $72,389,444 $76,098,229 5% 89,025 97,530 10% Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 17
18 FY14 Outcomes state-by-state Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 18
19 Prepared by Goran Debelnogich, Sr. Principal Analyst, DRA, ORR, ACF, HHS March 31, 2015, Page 19
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