Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West
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1 Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West William H. Frey The Brookings Institution
2 2008: Greater Minority Turnout and Share of the Voter Population Fast-Growing and Slow-Growing Purple States Where did Minorities Win the Election for Obama? Current Demographics and Polling in the Mountain West
3 Democratic Margins by Race Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
4 Number of Voters: 2004, 2008 millions Blacks Hispanics Asians Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
5 Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population: Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* 77% 21% 2% 30% 66% 4% 42% 13% 45% 53% 22% 25% Under Age 18 Age 18+, Non Citizen Eligible Voters * Non Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 Supplement
6 Turnout Rates, 2004 and Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
7 Turnout Rates, Year Olds Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Source: Lopez and Taylor, Pew Hispanic Center, 2009
8 Growth: Eligible Voters and Voters Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Eligible Voters Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
9 2004 vs 2008 Comparisons 100% Population Eligible Voters Voters 80% 60% 40% % 0% Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November supplements
10 Hispanic Shares 2008 Populations, Voters States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Florida Colorado New Jersey New York Illinois Voters Population Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2008 supplement
11 Blue Red and Purple States, 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis Solid Blue Solid Red Purple-Dem Purple-Rep
12 Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis Purple-Dem Purple-Rep All Other
13 Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis Purple-Dem Purple-Rep All Other
14 2008 Voter Profiles of State Groupings Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple 0.8 Solid Blue Solid Red Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* * Non Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 supplement
15 Fast-Growing vs Slow-Growing Purple State Growth, Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians, Other Fast Growing Slow Growing Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
16 Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nevada New Mexico Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
17 Nevada Democratic Margins Total Whites Blacks Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
18 New Mexico Democratic Margins Total Whites Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
19 Florida, Virginia Voters: 2004, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Florida Virginia Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
20 Florida Democratic Margins Total Whites Blacks Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
21 Virginia Democratic Margins Total Whites Blacks Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
22 Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters: 2004, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ohio Pennsylvania Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
23 Ohio Democratic Margins Total Whites Blacks Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
24 Pennsylvania Democratic Margins Total Whites Blacks Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
25 Where Minorities Won for Democrats Kerry Took 20 States 10 states-whites went Democratic (62 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for Dems (190 electoral college) Source: William H. Frey Obama Took 29 States 19 states-whites went Democratic (223 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for Dems (142 electoral college)
26 2004 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities Source: William H. Frey analysis
27 2008 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities Source: William H. Frey analysis
28 2010 Population and Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity: US and Mountain West 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Pop Eligible Voters Total Pop Eligible Voters USA Mountain West Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics
29 Total Population by Race-Ethnicity, 2010: Six Mountain West States 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% New Mexico Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics
30 Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity, 2010: Six Mountain West States 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% New Mexico Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics
31 Party Affiliation: US Registered Latino Voters 70 (Registered Latinos) y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010 Democrat Republican Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010
32 Party with More Concern for Hispanics 60 (Registered Latinos) y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010 Democrat Republican Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010
33 Right Direction/Wrong Track? Whites Hispanics Whites Hispanics Country (Adults.6 MT West States) Right Wrong Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey State
34 Country: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
35 State: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
36 Obama Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
37 Obama: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
38 Bush Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
39 Palin Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adsult: 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
40 Congressional Democrat Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
41 Congressional Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
42 Congressional Republican Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
43 Congressional Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
44 State Democrat Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
45 State Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
46 State Republican Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
47 State Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
48 Priority Issues for Whites (percent ranking issue as extremely important) 1 57% Jobs/Econ Growth 2 50% Schools 3 49% Federal Govt Spending 4 49% Illegal Immigrants 5 43% Crime and Drugs Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
49 Priority Issues for Hispanics (percent ranking issue as extremely important) 1 63% Jobs/Econ Growth 2 63% Schools 3 59% Crime and Drugs 4 48% Environment 5 47% Health Care Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
50 Obama Health Care Plan 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Hispanics Strong Oppose Oppose DK/Ref Support Strong Support Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
51 Financial Reform 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Hispanics Strong Oppose Oppose DK/Ref Support Strong Support Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
52 Income Taxes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Hispanics Too High About Right Don't Pay/DK Too Low Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
53 Arizona Immigration Law 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Hispanics Not Far Enough About Right Goes Too Far Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
54 AZ Immigration Law: Goes Too Far Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
55 Stop Illegal Immigration Flows Federal Involvement Level? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Hispanics More Same/DK Less Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
56 Illegal Flows: Need More Federal Involvement Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
57 Deal with Illegals Here: 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Federal Involvement Level? Whites Hispanics More Same/DK Less Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
58 Deal with Illegals Here: State Involvement Level? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Hispanics More Same/DK Less Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
59 Illegals Here : Need More State Involvement Whites and Hispanics - MT West States Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
60 Immigrants: Strength vs Burden Whites 28 Strength 23 Hispanics Burden Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
61 Illegals: Pathway vs No Amnesty Whites Pathway No Amnesty Hispanics Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
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