Special Report: The 2014 Election Results & Federal Transportation Investment/Policy

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1 Special Report: The 2014 Election Results & Federal Transportation Investment/Policy Overview As expected, Republicans had a big night November 4. As we write this, the GOP has gained 13 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives expanding their majority in that chamber to the largest the party has enjoyed since World War II. The big news, however, is Republicans wrestling control of the U.S. Senate by picking up at least seven seats previously held by Democrats. When the next congressional session begins in January, Republicans will have at least 52 seats in the Senate, while Democrats will control 45. Two races Alaska and Virginia have not yet been decided and the major candidates in Louisiana are heading for a December 6 runoff as neither received more than 50 percent of the vote. While there will be no shortage of spin from both sides about what the 2014 elections mean for each party and their prospects in the 2016 presidential election, ARTBA is focused on what the makeup of the next Congress means for efforts to advance transportation legislation over the next two years. House Republicans will continue to be able to pass virtually any legislation they want as they have done since 2010 due to the chamber s institutional rules that greatly advantage the majority party. The Senate, on the other hand, is a more complicated environment. Not only do the chamber s rules empower the minority to stop any legislation with 41 votes a threshold Democrats will exceed by at least four votes but Republicans face the same headwinds to control the chamber beyond 2016 as Democrats faced this year. Senate Democrats had to defend 21 seats in 2014 (seven of which were in states that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election) and Republicans had to defend 15. Republican Senate candidates won in at least five of the Romney states (North Carolina, Arkansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana) and two Romney states (Alaska and Louisiana) remain possible Republican pick-ups. By contrast, the 2016 elections will require Republicans to defend 24 seats (seven of which are in states won by President Obama in the 2012 presidential election) and only 10 seats currently held by Democrats will be on the ballot. The 2016 map does not guarantee Democrats regain control of the Senate in two years just like the 2014 map did not guarantee Republicans would win control of the chamber. So, what does this all mean? First, there is no doubt Republicans will control the agenda (what bills and amendments are considered, committee hearings, etc.) on Capitol Hill, but they still do not have enough votes to overcome objections by Senate Democrats or override any presidential vetoes. Second, with control of the Senate in play again and a presidential election in two years, it is unclear at this point how both sides are going to balance the competing needs of contrasting themselves with the other party and producing accomplishments to show they are worthy of the 1

2 responsibility to govern (Republicans are already under pressure from conservative activists not to work with Democrats). Last but not certainly not least divided government means enacting any new laws will require support from both parties. Of all the major issues before Congress, few can rival the broad bipartisan support that transportation investment and policy reforms have routinely enjoyed. Another key advantage for the federal transportation programs is that unlike many other areas, the looming Highway Trust Fund revenue shortfall and expiration of the federal highway, transit and aviation programs in 2015 will require congressional action of some form. So despite all the spin about the game changing 2014 elections, we are looking at another busy year on the transportation front. Senate As this goes to press, Republicans have delivered on expectations and will control at least 52 seats in the U.S. Senate during Republicans won seats in seven states previously held by Democrats (Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia), while successfully defending all 15 Senate seats held by Republicans. The Senate races in Alaska and Virginia are still too close to call, and incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and challenger Bill Cassidy are headed to a December 6 runoff. As such, Republicans have the potential of picking up three more Senate seats and further expanding their majority in the chamber. Due to Senate rules, the magic number is 60. Any senator has the right to filibuster legislation and stopping this parliamentary tactic requires 60 votes. Over the last several decades, this arcane procedure has evolved from a lone Senator talking a bill to death, to a tool that both parties wield to stop legislation with which they disagree. As a result, any major legislation now requires a supermajority. In 2015 just like 2014 the majority party will be unable to achieve 60 votes without support from at least a handful of minority party members. That means Republicans will have the ability to schedule votes, but only bills with bipartisan support will actually pass the chamber. House Republicans have expanded their majority in the House by at least 13 seats and will hold the party s largest majority since World War II. Republicans have controlled the House since 2011 and unlike the Senate House rules greatly empower the majority party regardless of the size of that majority. The chamber requires only a simple majority to approve legislation and bestows on the majority complete control of the legislative agenda. Republicans maintaining a majority of the House was widely expected. This is due, in large part, to the 2010 elections where not only did Republicans regain control of the House, but also captured many state legislatures and governorships. The election coincided with the 2010 decennial national census, the results of which were used in 2011 to determine how many House seats each state gets and the new congressional map drawn by, in most states, the governors and state legislators. Because of the big Republican victory in 2010, the GOP had much more sway in the redrawing of the congressional maps and in many states drew favorable districts to help secure its House majority. The next redrawing of House districts is not slated, in most states, until 2021, making a Republican controlled House very likely until that point. 2

3 State and Local With 36 gubernatorial races and 87 out of 99 state legislative chambers holding elections this year, control of governments at the state level was once again put to voters. Five of the 36 governor s mansions up for grabs flipped to another party yesterday, with three more races still too close to call. This brings the new total breakdown to 31 Republican governors, 16 Democratic governors, and three states where the outcome is still undecided. That compares to the current breakdown of 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats meaning a net gain of at least two governorships for the GOP. Down ballot from the gubernatorial elections, 46 states held some sort of state legislature elections, with only Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia not voting for state-level offices. Going into the November 4 elections, Democrats controlled 21 state House and 18 state Senate bodies, while Republicans held majorities in 28 state House and 31 state Senate chambers. Nebraska has only one, technically non-partisan, legislature, though the majority of its members are Republicans. After the newly-elected members are sworn in later this year and early next year, Democrats will now hold majorities in 14 state House and 15 state Senate chambers. Republicans, in turn, will control 33 House and 30 Senate chambers. One state Senate is now split equally between the parties and there are four state legislative bodies still undecided as of now. Prior to the election, Democrats held the governorship and state House and Senate in 14 states, compared to 23 states where all three were led by Republicans. This is now the case in seven states for Democrats and 23 states for Republicans, leaving 18 states with split party control of their government and states that remain undecided at this stage of the vote counting process. Balance of All 99 State Legislative Chambers Pre-Election Post-Election Chamber Democrat Republican Split Non-Partisan Democrat Republican Split Non-Partisan State Senates State House Total: ** Four chambers still undecided as of November 5 What s Next in Washington? While much of the recent national political focus has been on who will be serving in Congress beginning in 2015, members of Congress already on the job still have plenty of unfinished business to attend to between now and the end of this year. Issues that still need to be resolved include: The absolutely-must-pass-to-avoid-a-government-shutdown FY 2015 appropriations bills that are currently operating under a short-term continuing resolution (CR) set to expire December 11. These annual appropriations bills set funding for the discretionary part of the federal government including all programs administered by the U.S. Department of Transportation. Given past practices and the relatively short time before the current interim funding bill expires, another government-wide catch all measure is likely to be approved during the post-election session. It remains to be seen, however, if Congress will approve funds for the remainder of FY 2015, or approve another short-term measure that would require further action next year to keep federal programs operating. Regardless of 3

4 the path taken, the lack of a long-term surface transportation authorization bill and another Highway Trust Fund revenue crisis looming in May 2015 make it likely Congress will keep highway and transit funding locked in at FY 2014 levels. Various national defense and international issues have accelerated in recent months and some members of Congress have discussed legislative action relating to the use of force in Iraq and Syria in response to the actions of insurgent terrorist groups. Similarly, members of Congress have called for action to attempt to limit the spread of Ebola in the U.S. Both of these policy issues could become part of the must-pass legislation to keep the federal government operating into the next year. Other issues that could get addressed in the lame duck session are the annual Department of Defense Authorization bill, and a host of possible trade agreements. Another likely area for action between now and the end of the year is the extension of a series of tax breaks many of which were part of the 2009 American Recovery & Reinvestment Act that were originally meant to be temporary, but have been extended annually since their origin. These tax extenders are now set to expire December 31. These breaks include the ARTBA-supported bonus depreciation and Section 179 Expensing provisions that allow companies to write off equipment purchases and capital expenditures. While the Highway Trust Fund has sufficient revenues to continue operations through May of 2015, some members of the House and Senate are interested in advancing a long-term trust fund revenue solution before the end of ARTBA has met with congressional leadership and tax committees over the last two months to urge action to stabilize the fund well in advance of May to avoid unnecessary disruptions in the 2015 construction season. For example, the Tennessee Department of Transportation announced October 24 that nearly $400 million in transportation investments were being delayed due to uncertainty at the federal level. It remains to be seen, however, if there will be an opportunity to advance a Highway Trust Fund stabilization plan during the lame duck session. Regardless of what happens in the next two months, transportation issues will play a major role in the agenda for the incoming congressional session. Reauthorization of the federal highway and public transportation programs also faces a May deadline and action on such a measure will not be possible until the Highway Trust Fund is on solid fiscal footing. The next Congress will also need to reauthorize the federal aviation programs by September 30. ARTBA will be pushing for increased federal airport infrastructure investment as well as an increase for the cap on Passenger Facility Charges, ticket fees that airports collect to help make capital improvements during that debate. The simple fact remains that despite the outcome of the elections, federal transportation investment and policy reforms remain one of the few issue areas capable of garnering broad support from members of both political parties. A point made increasingly clear by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) when he recently cited a big highway bill as one of the areas in which House Republicans and President Obama can find common ground. The undeniable contribution of improved transportation infrastructure to economic strength and quality of life is not a partisan issue. ARTBA will continue to emphasize the merits of our arguments as we work with members of both parties to advance pro-transportation policies. The following pages provide a more detailed analysis of the 2014 elections. 4

5 Summary of 2014 Election Results Democrats Republicans Independents Vacancies Undecided Senate (2014) Senate (2015) House (2014) House (2015) Governor (2014) Governor (2015) Newly-Elected Members of Congress and Governors As of November 5, 65 new members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives were elected along with 10 new governors these ranks include some former members who are returning to Congress and also some House members who will now serve in the Senate and as governors. ARTBA and its leadership will begin meeting with these newly-elected officials and their staff in January to inform them of the importance of federal transportation investment to their state or district as soon as they begin their work here in Washington. While some of the congressional races are still officially unresolved, we can report these new members of Congress and governors: Representatives Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) James French Hill (R-Ark.) Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) Steve Knight (R-Calif.) Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) Norma Torres (D-Calif.) Mimi Walters (R-Calif.) Ken Buck (R-Colo.) Gwen Graham (D-Fla.) Carlos Curbello (R-Ill.) Earl Carter (R-Ga.) Jody Hice (R-Ga.) Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) Richard Allen (R-Ga.) Mark Takai (D-Hawaii) Rodney Blum (R-Iowa) David Young (R-Iowa) Robert Dold (R-Ill.) Michael Bost (R-Ill.) Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) Michael Bishop (R-Mich.) David Trott (R-Mich) Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich) Thomas Emmer (R-Minn.) Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) Bradley Walker (R-N.C.) David Rouzer (R-N.C.) Alma Adams (R-N.C.) Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) Thomas Macarthur (R-N.J.) Bonnie Coleman (D-N.J.) Cresent Hardy (R-Nev.) Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) John Katko (R-N.Y.) Steven Russell (R-Okla.) Ryan Costello (R-Pa.) Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) John Ratcliffe (R-Texas) Will Hurd (R-Texas) Brian Babin (R-Texas) Mia Love (R-Utah) David Brat (R-Va.) Don Beyer (D-Va.) Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) Glenn Grothman (R-Wisc.) Alexander Mooney (R-W.Va.) Even Jenkins (R-W.Va.) 5

6 Senators Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) David Perdue (R-Ga.) Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) Gary Peters (D-Mich.) Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) James Lankford (R-Okla.) Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) Governors Asa Hutchinson (R-Ark.) Doug Ducey (R-Ariz.) David Inge (D-Hawaii) Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.) Charlie Baker (R-Mass.) Larry Hogan (R-Md.) Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) Tom Wolf (D-Pa.) Gina Raimondo (D-R.I.) Gregg Abbott (R-Texas) It is never too early to begin educating new members of Congress and governors about the importance of transportation investment in their state Elections and the Relevant House and Senate Committees Although Republicans will gain control of both the House and Senate in January, the leadership in both chambers will likely remain the same. In the House, John Boehner is expected to retain the Speaker s gavel. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) will likely remain in their leadership positions. McCarthy ascended to his position in July after former Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) lost his primary election June 10. Scalise was then elected by his GOP colleagues to take McCarthy s place as the party s chief vote counter. On the Democratic side, all indications are that leadership ranks will remain the same, with current Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Democratic Caucus Assistant Leader James Clyburn (D-S.C.) maintaining the top three positions for their party in the House. While the Republican majority in the Senate will certainly affect the policy direction of the chamber, the leadership personnel for each party is likely to remain the same, just in opposite rolls. Current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is widely expected to ascend to the Majority Leader spot in 2015, and Minority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) will likely become the next Majority Whip after party leadership elections are held in November. On the Democratic side, current Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) should maintain his leadership role as the next Minority Leader, current Assistant Majority Leader Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) will likely become the next Minority Whip and Policy Committee Chair Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will stay on as the number three Democrat in the Senate. ARTBA will provide an update on House and Senate leadership decisions as they are made by each party in the coming weeks. Transportation & Infrastructure (T&I) Committee Current T&I Committee Chairman Bill Shuster (R-Pa.) will retain the gavel of the committee that oversees all transportation related policy issues and is charged with producing the next 6

7 surface transportation and aviation program reauthorization bills will be Shuster s third year as chairman, after helping lead the way for enactment of the Water Resources and Reform Development Act of 2014 (WRRDA). There will be a change at the helm of the Highways & Transit Subcommittee, as current chairman and long-time transportation advocate Tom Petri (R-Wis.) will retire at the end of this year. This opens the door for numerous members of the committee to seek the chairmanship of the subcommittee that will help write the successor to MAP-21. ARTBA will provide updates as this process unfolds over the next few months. On the Democrat side of the committee, Representative Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) lost a hotly contested bid for re-election. Rahall has championed strong federal transportation policy and increased investment throughout his 38 years in Congress. With his departure, committee Democrats will very likely be led by current Natural Resources Committee Ranking Members Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.). DeFazio has held various subcommittee leadership positions in both the majority and minority on the T&I Committee and is expected to continue as a strong leader on both policy and investment issues. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) is expected to continue to be the lead Democrat on the Highways &Transit Subcommittee in Including retirements, defeats and those who ran for other office, of the 60 current members of the committee nine will not be a part of the next House of Representatives. Those members are: Tom Petri (R-Wis.) Howard Coble (R-N.C.) Gary Miller (R-Calif.) Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) Steve Daines (R-Mont.) Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) Mike Michaud (D-Maine) House Appropriations Committee The House Appropriations Committee, which sets annual funding levels for all federal discretionary programs, will continue to be led by Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) on the GOP side and Ranking Member Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) on the Democratic side. Changes at the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development (THUD) subcommittee will be significant, as both current Chairman Tom Latham (R-Iowa) and current Ranking Member Ed Pastor (D-Ariz.) are both retiring at the end of We will provide more information about the successors to Latham and Pastor as the shuffling of the deck chairs on this panel gets underway. House Ways & Means Committee The House Ways & Means Committee has jurisdiction over all tax policy, including all transportation related taxes and trust funds. Current Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) is retiring at the end of the year. Current House Budget Committee Chairman and 2012 Republican nominee for Vice President Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is expected to take the helm of the committee beginning in Congressman Kevin Brady (R-Texas), who is more senior on the committee than Ryan, has 7

8 announced he will also seek the chairmanship, but he is facing an uphill climb. Ryan has a mixed record on federal transportation and infrastructure investment issues. As chairman of the Budget Committee, Ryan has continually put forth budgets that would align highway and transit spending with revenues coming into the Highway Trust Fund, which since 2008 would have resulted in devastating cuts to the programs. However, recent budgets have been accompanied by statements explaining these proposals reflect what the trust fund could support at current revenue levels, and included reserve clauses that would allow adjustment of the budget accordingly if additional trust fund revenues were generated. He also voted for MAP-21 and the most recent MAP-21 extension and short-term Highway Trust Fund fix. Current Ranking Democrat Sander Levin (D-Mich.) is expected to maintain his position as his party s leader on the committee. House Budget Committee With current Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan looking to take over the Ways & Means Committee at the beginning of 2015, that leaves a vacancy at the top of his current committee for Republicans. Committee Vice-Chairman Tom Price (R-Ga.), a former member of leadership in the GOP, seems like the front-runner but he could receive a challenge from numerous members for the gavel. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) is the current Ranking Member for the Democrats and will likely maintain that position in the 114 th Congress. Senate Environment & Public Works (EPW) Committee As a result of the new Republican Senate Majority, Senator Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) will become chairman of the Senate EPW Committee in 2015 the committee has jurisdiction over the federal highway program. Inhofe chaired the committee during the 2005 surface transportation bill and was the panel s lead Republican during the 2012 surface transportation program reauthorization process. Inhofe is widely considered one of the Senate s most conservative members, but routinely points to infrastructure and defense as two of the primary functions of the federal government. Current EPW Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) is expected to continue as the lead Democrat on the panel next year. As Inhofe will be displacing Senator David Vitter (R-La.) who is also running for Louisiana governor in 2015 as the top EPW Republican, it is unclear if Vitter will take over the chairmanship of one of the EPW subcommittees. Senator Tom Carper (D-Del.) is the current chairman of the EPW Transportation & Infrastructure Subcommittee and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is the subcommittee s ranking Republican. If Vitter does not displace Barrasso and Barrasso remains on the EPW panel, Barrasso would be expected to chair the subcommittee in 2015 and Carper would be it ranking Democrat. Senate Appropriations Committee The leaders of the Senate Appropriations Committee and the panel s THUD Subcommittee will all return in While current Committee Chairman Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) will become the Ranking Democrat, former Ranking Republican Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) is now in line to chair the full 8

9 committee. This means current Ranking Republican Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) will likely get demoted from the lead role on the panel. Shelby, however, is expected to chair another full committee (see Banking Committee below) and his choice of the subcommittees on appropriations. With some senior members of the committee leaving Congress at the end of this year and the typical postelection committee shake-up, there will be new faces at the leadership of the various appropriations subcommittees. As a result, it remains to be seen if current THUD Subcommittee Ranking Member Susan Collins (R-Maine) will become the panel s next chairman and if Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.) will continue to be the top Democrat on the subcommittee. Senate Finance Committee Senate Finance Committee Ranking Republican Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) will become chairman of the Senate tax-writing panel in Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will be the panel s ranking member when the new Congress convenes in January. Hatch and Wyden worked cooperatively to develop the latest Highway Trust Fund patch in July, and Hatch has routinely called for a long-term trust fund solution. Hatch has also, however, suggested that spending cuts should also be considered as part of any trust fund stabilization effort. Senate Banking Committee If current Appropriations Committee Ranking Republican Richard Shelby is bumped from his perch atop the powerful spending committee by Senator Cochran, he will likely take the chairmanship of the Banking Committee. The panel oversees transit policy and a host of financial issues in the Senate. On the Democratic side, current Chairman Tim Johnson (D-S.D.) is retiring, opening the door for a new Democrat to lead the committee. While Senator Schumer is next in line, his role in the Democratic leadership may lead him to step aside, allowing for a more junior member to lead the Democrats on the committee. Senate Commerce Committee Current Ranking Republican John Thune is slotted to take the gavel of the committee which will be charged with contributing safety provisions of the next surface transportation bill, along with reauthorizing federal aviation law in With current Chairman Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) retiring, Senator Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) is in line to be the panel s lead Democrat. Senate Budget Committee Current Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray and Ranking Republican Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) will likely swap roles on the committee starting in January. Polls Close, Hard Work Remains Federal investment constitutes on average more than half of all U.S. highway and bridge capital improvements. The individuals elected November 4 will be making decisions that directly impact the transportation construction industry marketplace for years to come. MAP-21 is already on its first extension and needs to be reauthorized by May 31, along with adequate revenues for the Highway Trust Fund to pay for any new legislation. A few months later, the federal aviation 9

10 program reauthorization comes due, with Congress left to deciding funding levels for capital investments at our nation s airports. We cannot wait to begin educating members of Congress, particularly those that are newly elected, about the need to find a long-term Highway Trust Fund revenue solution to preserve and grow federal surface transportation investment. With the elections completed, now is a perfect time to reach out to your current Representatives and Senators to engage them about the value of transportation improvements in your community and the need for action to stabilize the Highway Trust Fund NOW! Please contact ARTBA s Vice President of Congressional Relations Dean Franks at dfranks@artba.org or , for assistance in reaching out to your members of Congress. ### 10