THE NEW ORDER OF WASHINGTON. A Post Election Analysis and Outlook of the 115 TH Congress and 45 th Presidential Administration

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1 THE NEW ORDER OF WASHINGTON A Post Election Analysis and Outlook of the 115 TH Congress and 45 th Presidential Administration Presented by Jane Campbell 2016 National Development Council All rights reserved. Version: October 12,

2 The Big RED elephant in the Room 2

3 Washington in 2017 Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader Donald J. Trump 45 th President of United States Paul Ryan Speaker of the House 3

4 GOP Dominance at all levels of Government GOP Governors 34 DEM Governors 15 GOP Total Control 25 DEM Total Control 5 Mixed : 20 4

5 2016 Electoral Map Projected Popular Vote Margin: 61,300,000 and growing Hillary Clinton by 1.25% 5

6 Electoral Maps from Prior 3 cycles 6

7 45 th President of United States Excerpts from President-elect Trump s Victory Speech 11/9/16 "Now it's time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. It's time. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans, and this is so important to me. great movement made up of millions of hard-working men and women, who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their families "Working together, we will begin the urgent task of rebuilding our nation and renewing the American dream. Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential. The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. 7

8 45 th President of United States Excerpts from President-elect Trump s Victory Speech 11/9/16 "We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it. "For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country. 8

9 45 th President of United States Trump Transition Team: Lead by NJ Gov. Chris Christie the following will lead the efforts on the Agency Level Treasury David Malpass, ran in NY Senate GOP 2010, Dept. Asst. Sec. of Treasury Ronald Reagan & Dept. Asst. Sec State Bush 41. Commerce Ray Washburne, Dallas based investor and Vice Chair Trump Victory Committee Indep. Fin. Agencies Paul Atkins, SEC Commissioner Bush 43 HUD Pamela Patenaude, HUD Asst. Sec, Comm. Planning and Dev. Bush 43, HUD-WH Liason Reagan - Former Sen. Scott Brown rumored aswell SBA- Christine Toretti, CEO of S.W. Jack Drilling Co. & RNC Committeewoman Labor- Steve Hart, Chairman and CEO Williams & Jensen DOT- Shirley Ybarra- Former VA Sec of Transportation. Agriculture- Michael Torrey, Principal Michael Torrey & Associates, Food & Ag lobbyist 9

10 President Trump Day 1 Plan President-elect Trump has both a DAY1 plan and a 100 DAY PLAN. DAY 1 Plan January 20 th 2017, 3 Phases Clean up corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, D.C. Restore security and the constitutional rule of Law Protect domestic workers 10

11 President Trump 100 day Plan Legislative 100 day plan 1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act 2. End The Offshoring Act 3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act 4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act 5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act 6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act 7. End Illegal Immigration Act 8. Restoring Community Safety Act 9. Restoring National Security Act 10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act 11

Final Senate Projection: Democrats 48, Republicans 52 Retiring: Barbara Boxer (D-CA) Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) Harry Reid (D-NV) David Vitter (R-LA) Dan Coats

12 United States Senate of 115 th Congress Outstanding Races LA: John Kennedy (R) and Foster Campbell (D) advance to December run-off election. Kennedy is favored. Final Senate Projection: Democrats 48, Republicans 52 Retiring: Barbara Boxer (D-CA) Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) Harry Reid (D-NV) David Vitter (R-LA) Dan Coats (R-IN) Defeated: Mark Kirk (R-IL) Newly Elected: Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Catherine Cortez Mastro (D-NV) Todd Young (R-IN) Maggie Hassan (D - NH) Incumbents Surviving Pat Toomey (R-PA) Michael Bennett (D-CO) Roy Blunt (R-MO) Ron Johnson (R-WI) Richard Burr (R-NC) Marco Rubio (R-FL) 12

Senate Leadership Republicans Majority: McConnell (R- Kentucky)

announced his intentions to retire at the end of his term, New

the next Democratic leader in the new Congress.

13 Senate Leadership Republicans Majority: McConnell (R- Kentucky) is expected to be reelected by the majority of the GOP caucus as Majority leader. Prior to the elections when current Minority Leader Reid announced his intentions to retire at the end of his term, New York Senator Chuck Schumer was already primed to take the helm as the next Democratic leader in the new Congress. McConnell Schumer Majority Leader Minority Leader Current Mitch McConnell(Ky.) Harry Reid (Nv) Republican majority McConnell Chuck Schumer (NY) 13

Senate Appropriations Committee Republicans

) would remain chairman. Patty Murray (D-Wash.

Other notes: Murray s move to Appropriations from

could have a domino effect on several other

14 Senate Appropriations Committee Republicans Majority: Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) would remain chairman. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) expressed interest in succeeding Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) as the panel s top Democrat, though she could seek a leadership role. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) or another Democrat could also take the position. Other notes: Murray s move to Appropriations from the Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee could have a domino effect on several other committees Cochran Chairman Ranking member Current Thad Cochran (Miss.) Barbara Mikulski (Md.) Republican majority Cochran Patty Murray (Wash.) Murray Durbin 14

Senate Finance Committee Republican Majority

), who coasted through reelection easily

Hatch Wyden Chairman Ranking member Current

15 Senate Finance Committee Republican Majority : Orrin Hatch (R- Utah) is expected to remain as Chair. Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who coasted through reelection easily Tuesday would retain his position as well. Hatch Wyden Chairman Ranking member Current Orrin Hatch (Utah) Ron Wyden (Ore.) Republican majority Orrin Hatch (Utah) Ron Wyden (Ore.) 15

Senate Small Business Committee Republican Majority :

) would retain her position, barring changes

If Risch moves to a different committee, Marco Rubio

Risch Shaheen Other notes: Heidi Heitkamp (D-

to the Foreign Relations Committee following a Ben

16 Senate Small Business Committee Republican Majority : Jim Risch (R-Idaho) could succeed retiring chairman David Vitter (R-La.). Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) would retain her position, barring changes elsewhere. If Risch moves to a different committee, Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) could be next in line. Risch Shaheen Other notes: Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) could become the top Democrat if Shaheen moves to the Foreign Relations Committee following a Ben Cardin (D-Md.) shift to Environment & Public Works. Rubio Chairman Ranking member Current David Vitter (La.) Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) Republican majority Jim Risch (Idaho) Shaheen Heitkamp 16

Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee

next in line to become chairman, because Richard

Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) would probably continue

Crapo Brown Chairman Ranking member Current

17 Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee Republican Majority : Mike Crapo (R- Idaho) is next in line to become chairman, because Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) is termlimited. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) would probably continue serving as the panel's top Democrat. Crapo Brown Chairman Ranking member Current Richard Shelby (Ala.) Sherrod Brown (Ohio) Republican majority Mike Crapo (Idaho) Brown 17

18 U.S. House of Representatives 115 th Congress Republicans 241 (239 decided + 2 likely wins) Democrats: 194 (193 decided + 1 likely win in CA- 7) House Projections: Democrats Pickup 7 however Republicans hold on to majority. 18

House Leadership Republicans Majority: The only sure bet going

to reside with Paul Ryan who has had a contentious relationship

prevent him from garnering the votes needed for election.

19 House Leadership Republicans Majority: The only sure bet going into Tuesday was that the House of Representatives would remain in GOP control. Nancy Pelosi will undoubtedly be reelected as the leader of the Democratic caucus. However question exist whether the Speaker s gavel will continue to reside with Paul Ryan who has had a contentious relationship with now President-elect Trump and who s own members (HFC) might prevent him from garnering the votes needed for election. Leadership elections will take place Nov. 15 th. Speaker of the House Minority Leader Current Paul Ryan (Wis.) Nancy Pelosi (Ca.) Republican majority Ryan??? Nancy Pelosi (Ca.) Ryan Pelosi 19

House Appropriations Committee Republicans: Hal Rogers

) is term limited and will seek the top spot on the

He ll probably be succeeded by current Defense

) or Ag-FDA Subcommittee Chairman Robert Aderholt (R-

) will probably retain her position as ranking member.

20 House Appropriations Committee Republicans: Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) is term limited and will seek the top spot on the panel s Defense Subcommittee. He ll probably be succeeded by current Defense Subcommittee Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.) or Ag-FDA Subcommittee Chairman Robert Aderholt (R- Ala.). Democrats: Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) will probably retain her position as ranking member. Other notes: Rogers would face off against Kay Granger (R-Texas) for the Defense Subcommittee. Frelinghuysen Aderholt Lowey Republican chairman Ranking Democrat Current Hal Rogers (Ky.) Nita Lowey (N.Y.) 115th Congress Rodney Frelinghuysen (N.J.) or Robert Aderholt (Ala.) Lowey 20

21 House Committees with NO likely Changes Committee Republican chairman Ranking Democrat Agriculture Michael Conaway (Texas) Collin Peterson (Minn.) Armed Services Mac Thornberry (Texas) Adam Smith (Wash.) Ethics Charlie Dent (Pa.) Linda Sánchez (Calif.)* Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (Texas) Maxine Waters (Calif.) Foreign Affairs Ed Royce (Calif.) Eliot Engel (N.Y.) Homeland Security Michael McCaul (Texas) Bennie G. Thompson (Miss.) Intelligence Devin Nunes (Calif.) Adam Schiff (Calif.) Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (Va.) John Conyers (Mich.) Natural Resources Rob Bishop (Utah) Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) Oversight & Government Reform Jason Chaffetz (Utah) Elijah Cummings (Md.) Rules Pete Sessions (Texas) Louise Slaughter (N.Y.) Science, Space & Technology Lamar Smith (Texas) Eddie Bernice Johnson (Texas) Small Business Steve Chabot (Ohio) Nydia Velázquez (N.Y.) Ways & Means Kevin Brady (Texas) Sander Levin (Mich.) 21

22 Question & Answers 22

23 Contact NDC s Washington Office Jane Campbell Director jcampbell@ndconline.org Ken Baker Policy Associate kbaker@ndconline.org 1100 H Street NW, Suite 1200 Washington, D.C

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