Election Update Issue 7 (57 days until the election)

Transcription

1 FROM: HP+P DATE: September 8, 2014 RE: Election Update Issue 7 (57 days until the election) Although Congress is back in Washington after a long August recess, campaign season is kicking into high gear as challengers and incumbents get ready for the final sprint to Election Day. Massachusetts and New Hampshire hold the final primaries of the season tomorrow, while New York holds its primaries for state-level races. With less than two months to go until the election, 70 percent of likely voters believe the United States is on the wrong track according to a survey released on September 3 from George Washington University. The environment is worse for Democrats than Republicans. According to the latest polls, Republicans now hold an advantage on a generic congressional ballot with a 46 to 42 lead and a 52 to 36 lead in Senate battleground states. While President Obama remains unpopular in many of these battleground states, his national approval rating of 44 percent is far higher than the Congressional approval rate of 16 percent. With a favorable political climate, the main goal of House Republicans for the short 12- day September session is to do no harm. But Congress does need to take action on a number of high priority issues, including a continuing resolution to fund the government beyond the end of September. House Republicans will also seek to pass a number of bills focused on jobs and energy to put pressure on Senate Democrats, and highlight the differences between the parties. Senate Democrats will take a similar strategy and try to appeal to their base with votes on measures to increase the minimum wage. Key Dates Tuesday, September 9 Primaries in New Hampshire and Massachusetts Tuesday, November 4 Election Day Saturday, December 6 Louisiana Runoff (if needed) Tuesday, January 6, 2015 Georgia Runoff (if needed) Race Predictions This report provides a diversity of predictions and draws on data from four different polling sites: RealClearPolitics, the Cook Political Report, the New York Times Upshot model or Leo, and Nate Silver s FiveThirtyEight. Each source is well respected and often cited by members of both parties, and all of the sites use different methodologies when calculating their predictions. RealClearPolitics takes a weighted average of recent 1

2 polling data, Cook Political Report relies on a wide variety of data including recent Presidential elections, and Leo and FiveThirtyEight build their own algorithms to predict outcomes. SENATE For the majority of the summer, Senate Snapshot projections about upcoming Senate races have remained relatively stable, meaning that control of the Senate is still very much up for grabs. Despite over $400 million being poured into the fight for Current makeup: Number of seats up: Net gain for GOP to take control: 55D*, 45R 36 (21D, 15R) 6 the Senate, neither party has a *Includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats clear advantage. Further, most major swings in favor of one party have been offset by swings in the other direction. The recent withdrawal of Kansas Senate Democrat Chad Taylor put Kansas, where Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) was heavily favored to win, into play, just weeks after the withdrawal of Senator John Walsh (D-MT) all but secured Montana for Republicans. A Republican wave in the Senate remains possible, but current polls and projections do not rule out the chance that Democrats retain control. To win control of the Senate, Republicans must net six seats. Republican candidates are highly favored to take Democratic seats in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota, but the remaining three seats will not come easily. With Senator Mark Udall (D-CO) and Democratic candidate Gary Peters favored to win in Colorado and Michigan, respectively, Republicans will need to defeat Democratic incumbents in at least three competitive states (among Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina), to win a majority. Republicans cannot lose any of their existing seats, which are somewhat at risk in Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. Iowa also remains seemingly open to either party, but Democratic Representative Bruce Braley currently holds a slight lead in recent polls. These races are especially hard to predict at this juncture because of the prevalence of third-party candidates who are polling in the high single digits in a significant number of states. In races such as Georgia and North Carolina, where candidates are nearly tied in the polls, third-party candidates are pulling sizeable support from the main party candidates. In Louisiana, which has no primaries but a free-for-all election, outside candidates will likely prevent either front-runner, Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) or Representative Bill Cassidy (R-LA), from reaching a 50 percent vote threshold, necessitating a runoff in December. News from the Front Lines Alaska: Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) and Republican nominee Dan Sullivan both pulled ads last week that centered on the 2013 murder of an elderly couple 2

3 after the victims family called for the ads to be taken off the air. Begich s ad called Sullivan, who is a former Attorney General for Alaska, soft on crime and pointed to a 2010 plea deal that Sullivan signed for the current suspect in the murder case. Sullivan s ad accused Begich of using the case, which is set to go to trial later this month, for political gain. In a letter to the Begich campaign, the attorney for the victims family said that the ad was so shocking to [the family] they now want to permanently leave the state as quickly as possible. A September 7 New York Times/CBS News/YouGov (YouGov) poll gave Sullivan a six-point lead over Begich. The race remains within the margin of error and is very competitive. Arkansas: According to a September 5 CNN/ORC International poll, Republican nominee Representative Tom Cotton (R-AR) holds a two-point lead over Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR). Further, NBC News/Marist and YouGov polls also give Cotton a slight lead over Pryor among likely voters. The YouGov poll gives Cotton a four-point lead, while the NBC News/Marist poll has Pryor trailing by five points. In polls of registered voters, Pryor either ties or maintains a slight lead over Cotton. This means that voter turnout remains crucial to this highly competitive race. Colorado: Several recent polls give Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D-CO) a steady lead over Republican challenger, Representative Cory Gardner (R-CO). The NBC News/Marist poll gives Udall a six-point lead, while recent YouGov and Rasmussen polls give Udall three-point and two-point leads, respectively. Iowa: The Senate race in Iowa remains one of the most competitive races, with Democratic Representative Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst locked in a statistical tie. Though the recent YouGov poll gave Braley a two-point lead, his lead remains within the margin of error. Kansas: Democratic nominee Chad Taylor withdrew his candidacy on September 3 in a letter to Republican Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Taylor s campaign has not specifically stated his reasons for dropping out of the race, but his withdrawal will likely boost support for Independent candidate Greg Orman, who previously ran for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2008 and stated that he is willing to caucus with either party. However, Kobach announced on September 4 that Taylor will remain on the ballot because he did not claim in his letter that he is incapable of serving if elected, as required by Kansas law. Taylor claims that he asked Kobach s office for approval of the letter s language prior to filing his withdrawal and stated that he will challenge Kobach s decision to keep him on the ballot. Following Taylor s withdrawal from the race, Republican incumbent Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) campaign manager Leroy Towns resigned, and two national Republican operatives, Corry Bliss and Chris LaCivita, joined the Roberts campaign just before Roberts first debate against Orman. During the debate, Roberts portrayed Orman as a Democrat in disguise 3

4 and repeatedly attacked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Orman attempted to distinguish himself from both parties and attacked Roberts as out of touch with Kansas values. Kentucky: A number of recent nonpartisan polls, such as a CNN/ORC International poll from September 3, place Democratic nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes within four points of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). McConnell s lead falls within the margin of error for the majority of polls, but poll numbers for the race have remained stagnant over the summer. Grimes holds a steady lead in most metropolitan areas, while McConnell polls significantly higher in rural counties. McConnell s campaign recently suffered a setback when campaign manager Jesse Benton resigned amidst allegations concerning his role in a payment-for-endorsement scheme when he ran former Representative Ron Paul s presidential campaign in Iowa. Louisiana: State Representative Paul Hollis filed a lawsuit in a Louisiana state court claiming that Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is not a resident of the state and is unable to represent the state in Congress. Landrieu is registered to vote under the address of a home in New Orleans that she co-owns with her parents. Baton Rouge Judge Wilson Fields dismissed the claim as premature on September 5, stating that a Senator s residence, under the U.S. Constitution, matters only at the time of the election. He said that the Court will welcome a challenge if Landrieu is reelected. The race between Landrieu and Republican challenger Representative Bill Cassidy (R-LA) remains highly competitive and is largely expected to carry over into a December runoff since neither candidate is expected to hit the 50 percent threshold in November. Michigan: Two Michigan TV stations, as well as Michigan State University, have offered to host a debate between Republican nominee Terri Lynn Land and Democrat Gary Peters. The Peters campaign accepted those debate invitations, but Land has so far refused. When asked about the potential for a televised debate, Land said that she has shared the stage with Peters numerous times and looks forward to continuing to speak with Michigan voters. The September 7 YouGov poll gave Land a slight lead over Peters, but the majority of other polls still place Peters ahead in what remains a highly competitive race. Peters remains favored to win because undecided voters in Michigan tend to sway Democratic. New Hampshire: Heading into the New Hampshire primary on September 9, Democratic incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) holds a steady lead in the polls over likely Republican challenger Scott Brown. The recent YouGov poll places Shaheen six points ahead of Brown. North Carolina: Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) and Republican challenger Thom Tillis had their first debate on September 3. The debate covered a wide-range of topics such as the recent beheadings of American journalists by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), immigration, the 4

5 Affordable Care Act, minimum wage, and women s health. During the debate, Hagan somewhat distanced herself from Obama Administration policies and touted her National Journal ranking as the most moderate senator. Tillis claimed that Hagan has not fulfilled any promises she made during her 2008 campaign. The race remains highly competitive, with the candidates in a statistical tie. Polling Projections RealClearPolitics Projections: 34 Not Up D 9 Toss-up 30 Not Up R 4 Safely D 11 Safely R 5 Likely D 4 Likely R 2 Lean D 1 Lean R Total 45 D 9 Toss-up 46 R Since the last update, RealClearPolitics moved WV (open-d) from Leans R to Likely R, IL (Durbin-D) from Safely D to Likely D, and MN (Franken-D) from Likely D to Leans D. Toss-up races (incumbent candidate in parentheses): AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO (Mark Udall-D), GA (open-r), IA (open-d), KY (McConnell-R), LA (Landrieu-D), MI (open-d), and NC (Hagan-D). Cook Political Report Projections: 34 Not Up D 9 Toss-up 30 Not Up R 7 Safely D 11 Safely R 3 Likely D 3 Likely R 1 Lean D 2 Lean R Total 45 D 9 Toss-up 46 R Since the last election update, the Cook Political Report moved KS (Roberts-R) from Likely R to Leans R. Toss-up races: AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO (Mark Udall-D), GA (open-r), IA (open-d), KY (McConnell-R), LA (Landrieu-D), MI (open-d), and NC (Hagan-D). New York Times Projections: 45 Likely D 9 Competitive 46 Likely R Total 45 D 9 Competitive 46 R Since the last election update, the New York Times moved KS (Roberts-R) from Likely R to competitive. The New York Times currently gives Republicans a 61 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. Toss-up races: AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO 5

6 (Mark Udall-D), GA (open-r), IA (open-d), LA (Landrieu-D), KS (Roberts-R), MI (open-d), and NC (Hagan-D). FiveThirtyEight Projections: 34 Not Up D 4 Toss-up 30 Not Up R 9 Safely D 15 Safely R 1 Likely D 0 Likely R 2 Lean D 5 Lean R Total 46 D 4 Toss-up 50 R Since the last update, FiveThirtyEight moved AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), and LA (Landrieu-D) from Toss-up to Leans R, though it maintains that these races remain highly competitive. FiveThirtyEight also moved KS (Roberts-R) from Likely R to Toss-Up following Taylor s withdrawal from the race. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Republicans a 65.1 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. Toss-up Races: CO (Mark Udall-D), IA (open-d), NC (Hagan-D), and KS (Roberts-R). HOUSE Democratic hopes for increasing their numbers in the House are slim, and the focus now is on how they can limit their losses. Republicans may not be able to realize the 12-seat pickup that early projections suggested was possible. Instead, there will likely be only a small change in the makeup of the House for the next Congress. House Snapshot Current makeup: 199D, 233R, 3 vacancies Number of seats up: 435 Net gain for Dems to take control: 19 A positive sign for House Democrats was the recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement of several vulnerable House Democrats including Representative Scott Peters (D-CA), Representative John Barrow (D-GA), and Representative Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), all top Republican targets. News from the Front Lines AZ-01: Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin defeated Gary Kiehne and will face Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) in the November election. Kirkpatrick is one of the top targets for House Republicans, and the race is expected to be highly competitive. 6

7 CA-17: Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA) endorsed incumbent Representative Mike Honda (D-CA) over his Democratic challenger Ro Khanna. Honda outpolled Khanna in the jungle primary, but the two Democrats were the top two finishers, setting up a repeat race in the fall. The race is expected to be expensive and competitive, but will remain in Democratic hands. CA-52: Representative Scott Peters (D-CA) received a major boost when the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed his re-election bid over Republican challenger Scott DeMaio. The Chamber had backed Peters opponent in 2012, but Chamber President Thomas Donohue wrote that Peters re-election would help to produce sustained economic growth, help create jobs, and get our country back on track. Peters remains a top Republican target. GA-12: Representative John Barrow (D-GA) received backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in his reelection bid against GOP challenger Rick Allen. The Chamber endorsed Barrow in 2012 as well. While Barrow continues to be a top target for Republicans, he remains the favorite to win in the fall. MA-06: The Boston Globe and The Boston Herald both endorsed Representative John Tierney s (D-MA) primary challenger, Seth Moulton, for the Democratic primary. Rep. Tierney won re-election in 2012 despite serious legal problems involving the Congressman s wife and brother-in-law. Republican Richard Tisei is running for the seat again and is one of the GOP s top recruits. NY-11: Representative Michael Grimm s (R-NY) trial on federal charges of tax evasion will not start until December. While the announcement means that Democratic nominee Domenic Recchia will not benefit from negative press for Grimm, the indictment has hurt Grimm s donations while the DCCC has invested heavily on Recchia s behalf. Polling Projections RealClearPolitics Projections: 162 Safely D 17 Toss-up 198 Safely R 14 Likely D 17 Likely R 12 Lean D 15 Lean R Total 188 D 17 Toss-up 230 R RealClearPolitics has not adjusted its rankings since the last update. Toss-up races: AZ01 (Kirkpatrick-D), AZ02 (Barber-D), CA07 (Bera-D), CA36 (Ruiz-D), CA52 (Peters-D), CO06 (Coffman-R), FL18 (Murphy-D), FL26 (Garcia-D), IA03 (open-r), IL10 (Schneider-D), IL13 (Davis-R), ME02 (open-d), NE02 (Terry-R), NH01 (Shea- Porter-D), NY01 (Bishop-D), NY21 (open-d), and WV03 (Rahall-D). 7

8 Cook Political Report Projections: 160 Safely D 15 Toss-up 205 Safely R 15 Likely D 17 Likely R 13 Lean D 10 Lean R Total 188 D 15 Toss-up 232 R The Cook Political Report has not adjusted its rankings since the last update. Toss-up races: AZ01 (Kirkpatrick-D), AZ02 (Barber-D), CA07 (Bera-D), CA26 (Brownley-D), CA52 (Peters-D), CO06 (Coffman-R), FL18 (Murphy-D), FL26 (Garcia-D), IA03 (open- R), IL10 (Schneider-D), MA06 (Tierney-D), MN08 (Nolan-D), NH01 (Shea-Porter-D), NY21 (open-d), and WV03 (Rahall-D). New York Times Projections: The New York Times has not yet released projections for the 2014 elections for the House of Representatives. FiveThirtyEight Projections: FiveThirtyEight has not yet released projections for the 2014 elections for the House of Representatives. GOVERNORS There are currently 21 Democratic Governors and 29 Republican Governors. In 2014, 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Traditional swing states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, have seen candidates seize and hold large leads in the polls with Governor John Kasich (R-OH) and Democratic nominee Tom Wolf (D-PA) now expected to win easily. However, traditionally red states, such as Kansas and Arizona, and traditionally blue states, such as Hawaii and Connecticut, are seeing unexpectedly competitive races as incumbents such as Governors Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Dan Malloy (D-CT) work to defend their seats. Former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail on behalf of Democrats with stops in Connecticut, Florida, and Maine. His appearances underscore his popularity since leaving office, and contrasts with the lack of appearances by President Barack Obama. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is also holding fundraisers for the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) as it works to chip away at the Republican Governors Association s (RGA) cash advantage. 8

9 News from the Front Lines Alaska: The Alaska Democratic Party announced its support for Independent Bill Walker after Walker and Democratic nominee Byron Mallot agreed to combine efforts to oust incumbent Governor Sean Parnell (R-AK). Walker will be at the top of the ticket while Mallot will run for lieutenant governor. The combined ticket may have a chance to unseat Parnell, who faces low popularity numbers. Arizona: State Treasurer Doug Ducey won the Republican primary and will face Democrat Fred DuVal in November. However, both of Ducey s GOP primary opponents, Scott Smith and Christine Jones, have declined to endorse Ducey and polls have Ducey and DuVal tied. Hawaii: The Republican National Committee is sending staffers to Hawaii to assist former Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona s campaign against Democrat David Ige. Ige defeated incumbent Governor Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) in a primary, but also faces former Democrat Mufi Hannemann, who is running as an Independent. Republicans hope that Ige and Hannemann will split the liberal vote and give Aiona a shot at capturing the governor s mansion. Kansas: Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Democratic challenger Paul Davis met in their first debate where both attacked the other with Brownback calling Davis the Nancy Pelosi of Kansas and Davis tying Brownback to Governor Rick Perry (R-TX). Despite Kansas deep-red status, Davis continues to benefit from Brownback s low voter approval. Ohio: Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald s campaign announced that it is shifting its focus to help Democrats down the ticket, essentially conceding the race to incumbent Governor John Kasich (R-OH). FitzGerald s campaign disintegrated over the past few weeks with continued missteps and the departure of a number of his senior advisors. Massachusetts: Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Charlie Baker are both expected to win their party s gubernatorial nominations. Polls have had Coakley and Baker trading leads, making the race much more competitive than anticipated. Both nominees are hoping to avoid mistakes from their previous races in 2010 where Coakley lost to Scott Brown and Baker lost to Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA). New York: Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is expected to easily win re-nomination over challenger Zephyr Teachout, who is running to Cuomo s left. However his pick for lieutenant governor, former Representative Kathy Hochul, could be in danger of losing her race to law school professor Tim Wu, who has been endorsed by the New York Times. Cuomo is holding a wide lead over Republican Rob Astorino in the general election. 9

10 Wisconsin: Democratic nominee Mary Burke has taken the lead over incumbent Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) in a race that is expected to be one of the most competitive this fall. While Walker successfully defeated a recall effort in 2012, he faces stiff opposition from Burke who is capitalizing on Walker s continued negative press. Polling Projections RealClearPolitics Projections: 7 Not Up D 11 Toss-up 7 Not Up R 5 Safely D 8 Safely R 4 Likely D 4 Likely R 1 Lean D 4 Lean R Total 17 D 11 Toss-up 22 R Since the last update, RealClearPolitics moved AK (Parnell-R) from Safely R to Leans R; AZ (open-r) and AR (open-d) from Leans R to Toss-up; MA (open-d) from Likely D to Leans D. Toss-up races: AR (open-d), AZ (open-r), CO (Hickenlooper-D), CT (Malloy-D), FL (Scott-R), GA (Deal-R), HI (Abercrombie-D), KS (Brownback-R), ME (LePage-R), MI (Snyder-R), and WI (Walker-R). Cook Political Report Projections: 7 Not Up D 10 Toss-up 7 Not Up R 4 Safely D 9 Safely R 4 Likely D 7 Likely R 2 Lean D 0 Lean R Total 17 D 10 Toss-up 23 R Since the last update, Cook Political Report moved AK (Parnell-R) from Safely R to Likely R; and OH (Kasich-R) from Lean R to Safely R. Toss-up races: AR (open-d), CT (Malloy-D), FL (Scott-R), HI (open-d), IL (Quinn-D), KS (Brownback-R), ME (LePage- R), MI (Snyder-R), PA (Corbett-R), and WI (Walker-R). New York Times Projections: The New York Times has not yet released projections for the 2014 governors races. FiveThirtyEight Projections: 16 Likely D 5 Competitive 20 Likely R Total 16 D 5 Competitive 20 R 10

11 FiveThirtyEight has not adjusted its projections since the last update. FiveThirtyEight has not published predictions for Alaska, Hawaii, Maine, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Vermont. Hawaii, Maine, and South Dakota all have third-party candidates that are currently polling above 10 percent, increasing the margin of error for polls in the field while the other races lack enough general polling data to draw significant projections. Competitive races: AZ (open-r), AR (open-d), CT (Malloy-D), FL (Scott-R), and KS (Brownback-R). KEY RACES Specific polling information on some of the most contested seats is set out below. For races that have not held primaries, polling data for the front runners for the nominations are indicated by italics. Incumbents are listed in bold. Senate Alaska Sullivan (R) 44, Begich (D) 38, Undecided 12 Sullivan (R) 47, Begich (D) 45, Undecided 4 Arkansas Pryor (D) 41, Cotton (R) 41, Undecided 11 Cotton (R) 43, Pryor (D) 39, Undecided 16 Pryor (D) 45, Cotton (R) 43, Undecided 12 Cotton (R) 49, Pryor (D) 47 Pryor (D) 44, Cotton (R) 43, Undecided 6 Pryor (D) 46, Cotton (R) 41 Colorado Udall (D) 46, Gardner (R) 43, Undecided 9 ±6.0] NBC News/Marist [MOE ±3.3] ±3.0] Hickman (D) [MOE ±3.7] CNN/ORC [MOE ±4.5] Opinion Research Associations (D) [MOE ±4.9] 8/25 9/5 9/5 8/27 8/21 11

12 Udall (D) 48, Gardner (R) 42, Undecided 9 Udall (D) 44, Gardner (R) 42 Georgia Perdue (R) 47, Nunn (D) 41, Undecided 9 Nunn (D) 45, Perdue (R) 43, Undecided 5 Nunn (D) 47, Perdue (R) 40, Undecided 10 NBC News/Marist [MOE ±3.5] ±3.0] WRBL [MOE ±2.47] Landmark (R) [MOE 9/5 9/2 8/21 Illinois Durbin (D) 50, Oberweis (R) 38, Undecided 10 ±3.0] Durbin (D) 44, Oberweis (R) 38, Undecided 8 Harper Polling (R) [MOE ±2.68] 9/2 Durbin (D) 48, Oberweis (R) 40, Undecided 8 We Ask America (R) [MOE ±3.02] 9/1 Iowa Braley (D) 45, Ernst (R) 40, Undecided 14 Braley (D) 44, Ernst (R) 42, Undecided 2 Braley (D) 40, Ernst (R) 40, Undecided 15 Braley (D) 42, Ernst (R) 42, Undecided 16 Kansas Orman (I) 43, Roberts (R) 33, Undecided 24 Loras College [MOE ±2.82] ±3.0] Suffolk University/USA Today [MOE ±4.4] Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE ±3.2] Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE ±3.3] 9/8 8/27 8/26 8/19 Kentucky McConnell (R) 47, Grimes (D) 42, Undecided 9 ±3.0] McConnell (R) 47, Grimes (D) NBC News/Marist [MOE 12

13 39, Undecided 6 ±3.7] McConnell (R) 50, Grimes (D) 46, Undecided 4 CNN/ORC [MOE 9/3 McConnell (R) 46, Grimes (D) 41, Undecided 6 9/3 McConnell (R) 46, Grimes 42, Undecided 8 SurveyUSA/Courier- Journal [MOE ±4.2] 9/1 Louisiana Cassidy (R) 38, Landrieu (R) 36, Undecided 11 ±5.0] Cassidy (R) 44, Landrieu (D) 41, Undecided 6 9/4 Michigan Land (R) 43, Peters (D) 42, Undecided 13 Peters (D) 46, Land (R) 44, Undecided 10 Peters (D) 45, Land (R) 39, Undecided 16 ±3.0] Mitchell Research [MOE ±3.09] EPIC-MRA [MOE 8/28 8/28 Minnesota Franken (D) 49, McFadden (R) 41, Undecided 9 ±2.0] Franken (D) 51, McFadden (R) 42, Undecided 3 SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [MOE ±4.1] 8/26 Mississippi Cochran (R) 46, Childers (D) 31, Undecided 15 Montana Daines (R) 53, Curtis (D) 35, Undecided 11 ±5.0] New Hampshire Shaheen (D) 47, Brown (R) 41, Undecided 9 13

14 Shaheen (D) 50, Brown (R) 42 Shaheen (D) 50, Brown (R) 44, Undecided 6 New Mexico Udall (D) 54, Weh (R) 36, Undecided 8 Udall (D) 53, Weh (R) 35, Undecided 11 North Carolina Tillis (R) 43, Hagan (D) 42, Undecided 10 Hagan (D) 45, Tillis (R) 43, Undecided 5 Hagan (D) 42, Tillis (R) 38, Undecided 13 Kiley & Company (D) [MOE Public Policy Polling [MOE Albuquerque Journal [MOE ±3.0] Suffolk/USA Today [MOE ±4.4] Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE ±3.4] 9/5 9/3 8/18 8/20 8/19 Oregon Merkley (D) 51, Wehby (R) 39, Undecided 9 Merkley (D) 48, Wehby (R) 35 9/5 South Dakota Rounds (R) 43, Weiland (D) 29, Undecided 21 ±6.0] Rounds (R) 39, Weiland (R) 33, Pressler (I) 17 Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE ±3.7] 8/28 Tennessee Alexander (R) 47, Ball (D) 32 Virginia Warner (D) 51, Gillespie (R) 39, Undecided 9 ±3.0] 8/14 West Virginia Capito (R) 55, Tennant (D) 32, Undecided 12 14

15 Capito (R) 54, Tennant (D) 37, Undecided 9 Capito (R) 50, Tennant (D) 33 Charleston Daily Mail [MOE ±4.9] 8/29 8/21 House AR-04 Westerman (R) 47, Lee Witt (D) 29, Undecided 18 On Message (R) [MOE ±4.9] 8/21 FL-02 Graham (D) 45, Southerland (R) 43, Undecided 11 Pathfinder Opinion Research (D) [MOE ±4.4] 8/14 FL-18 Murphy (D) 54, Domino (R) 33, Undecided 13 Frederick (D) [MOE ±4.9] 8/31 IA-01 Murphy (D) 51, Blum (R) 40 Myers Research (D) [MOE ±4.9] ME-02 Cain (D) 37, Poliquin (R) 33 Public Opinion Strategies (R) [MOE ±4.9] 8/20 9/2 NE-02 Ashford (D) 46, Terry (R) 45 DCCC (D) [MOE ±4.7] 8/21 WV-02 Mooney (R) 40, Casey (D) 28, Undecided 19 Governor Public Opinion Strategies (R) [MOE ±4.9] 8/19 Alaska Walker (I) 43.4, Parnell (R) 39.7, Undecided 15 Hays Research Group (D) [MOE ±4.5] 8/26 Arkansas Hutchinson (R) 48, Ross (D) 39, Undecided 7 NBC/Marist [MOE ±3.3] Ross (D) 46, Hutchinson (R) 44, Undecided 7 8/28 Arizona DuVal (D) 40, Ducey (R) 40 DuVal (D) 35, Ducey (R) 35, Undecided 24 ±3.0] Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE 8/31 8/26 15

16 California Brown (D) 50, Kashkari (R) 34, Undecided 16 Field Poll [MOE ±4.8] 9/4 Colorado Hickenlooper (D) 43, Beauprez (R) 39, Undecided 5 NBC/Marist [MOE ±3.5] Connecticut Foley (R) 45, Malloy (D) 38 8/21 Florida Scott (R) 37, Crist (D) 37, Undecided 26 Scott (R) 41, Crist (D) 36, Undecided 9 Georgia Deal (R) 44, Carter (D) 42, Undecided 8 Carter (D) 44, Deal (R) 40, Undecided 12 Illinois Rauner (R) 46, Quinn (D) 37, Undecided 10 Iowa Branstad (R) 47, Hatch (D) 35, Undecided 15 Branstad (R) 50, Hatch (D) 37, Undecided 13 Gravis Marketing (R) [MOE Tampa Bay Times [MOE ±3.4] WRBL [MOE ±2.47] Landmark (R) [MOE We Ask America (R) [MOE ±3.0]] Suffolk University/USA Today [MOE ±4.4] Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE ±3.2] 9/2 9/2 9/2 8/21 9/3 8/27 8/26 Kansas Brownback (R) 43, Davis (D) 42 Cole Hargrave (R) [MOE ±4.3] 8/27 Davis (D) 48, Brownback (R) 40, Undecided 6 SurveyUSA/KSN [MOE ±4.2] 8/27 Davis (D) 39, Brownback (R) 37, Undecided 15 Public Policy Polling (D) [MOE ±3.3 8/19 Massachusetts Coakley (D) 41, Baker (R) 32, Undecided 17 Baker (R) 38, Coakley (D) 47 UMass-Lowell/WHDH [MOE ±2.9] Boston Globe [MOE 9/3 8/29 16

17 Michigan Snyder (R) 47, Schauer (D) 46, Undecided 7 Schauer (D) 45, Snyder (R) 43, Undecided 12 Minnesota Dayton (D) 49, Johnson (R) 40, Undecided 5 New Mexico Martinez (R) 50, King (D) 41, Undecided 9 Mitchell Research [MOE ±3.09] EPIC/MRA [MOE SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [MOE ±4.1] Albuquerque Journal [MOE 8/28 8/27 8/25 8/17 New York Cuomo (D) 56, Astorino (R) 28, Undecided 13 Quinnipiac [MOE ±3.1] 8/20 Pennsylvania Wolf (D) 52, Corbett (R) 41, Undecided 7 Wolf (D) 49, Corbett (R) 24, Undecided 25 South Carolina Haley (R) 51, Sheheen (D) 36, Undecided 7 Harper (R) [MOE ±3.18] Franklin and Marshall [MOE ±4.3] 9/4 8/28 8/28 Vermont Shumlin (D) 48, Milne (R) 36 8/29 Wisconsin Burke (D) 48, Walker (R) 44, Undecided 6 National Burke (D) 49, Walker (R) 47 We Ask American (R) [MOE ±3.0] Marquette Law School [MOE ±4.1] 9/4 8/27 The polls below were taken at a national level and reflect the overall electorate s views on a number of issues. These numbers will be updated as new polls become available. Direction of the Country Wrong Track 70, Right Direction 21, Undecided 9 GWU/Tarrance Group/Lake Research [MOE ±3.1] 9/3 Wrong Track 60, Right Direction 28, Undecided 12 The Economist/YouGov [MOE ±5.0] 8/20 17

18 Generic Congressional Ballot Republican 39, Democrat 37, Undecided 16 Republican 46, Democrat 42, Undecided 12 GWU/Tarrance Group/Lake Research [MOE ±3.1] 9/3 Democrat 47, Republican 42, Undecided 11 Pew Research [MOE ±3.3] 8/28 Presidential Approval Disapprove 53, Approve 40 Disapprove 51, Approve 44, Undecided 5 Gallup [MOE ±3.0] GWU/Tarrance Group/Lake Research [MOE ±3.1] 9/3 Disapprove 52, Approve 44, Undecided 3 The Economist/YouGov [MOE ±5.0] 8/20 Congressional Approval Disapprove 80, Approve 16, Undecided 5 GWU/Tarrance Group/Lake Research [MOE ±3.1] 9/3 Disapprove 72, Approve 10, Undecided 18 The Economist/YouGov [MOE ±5.0] 8/20 Ad of the Week This week s spot features Independent candidate Greg Orman s brief 30-second biography. Democrat Chad Taylor s decision to withdraw from the Kansas Senate race means Orman s bid to unseat unpopular incumbent Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) has the potential to decide control of the Senate in November. Democrats are hopeful that Orman, if successful, would follow the lead of Senator Angus King (I-ME), an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats. Watch the spot here to learn more about Orman s background. 18