Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP. Election Night Guide A Pillsbury Political Law/Public Policy publication

Transcription

1 Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP Election Night Guide 2014 A Pillsbury Political Law/Public Policy publication

2 2014 ELECTION NIGHT GUIDE PILLSBURY WINTHROP SHAW PITTMAN LLP POLITICAL LAW GROUP PUBLIC POLICY GROUP Contact Frederick K. Lowell October 30, 2014 Four Embarcadero Center, 22 nd Floor San Francisco, California Tel: Fax: Copyright 2014 by Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP and Frederick K. Lowell. All rights reserved. A collection of election facts, statistics and analysis. Not an advocacy piece v1

3 PILLSBURY WINTHROP SHAW PITTMAN POLITICAL LAW GROUP FREDERICK K. LOWELL, CHAIR KATHRYN E. DONOVAN ANITA D. STEARNS MAYO EMILY B. ERLINGSSON BRIDGET C. SCHARN, SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST PUBLIC POLICY GROUP ELIZABETH V. MOELLER, CHAIR HON. GREG LAUGHLIN BRIAN E. FINCH CRAIG J. SAPERSTEIN GRAHAM G. WISNER AIMEE P. GHOSH ANITA K. EPSTEIN, SENIOR GOVERNMENT RELATIONS ADVISOR i

4 2014 ELECTION NIGHT GUIDE INDEX Page Presidential Election Fact Sheet Election Results Fact Sheet Current Party Strengths 4 Recent WAVE Elections for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate Election Analysis 6 Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and Governor Races 7 Northeast 9 Midwest 9 South 10 West Gubernatorial Races 12 Northeast 12 Midwest 13 South 14 West 15 California Races 16 ii

5 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FACT SHEET Needed to Elect: 270 Electoral Votes 11 largest states: (271) California (55) Illinois (21) Texas (34) Ohio (20) New York (31) Michigan (17) Florida (27) New Jersey (15) Pennsylvania (21) Georgia (15) North Carolina (15) 3 Most Democratic States in 2012: District of Columbia (3) Hawaii (4) Vermont (3) 3 Most Republican States in 2012: Utah (5) Oklahoma (7) Wyoming (3) Presidential Election Year Results 2012 Obama (D) Mondale (D) 13 Romney (R) 206 Reagan (R) Obama (D) Carter (D) 49 McCain (R) 173 Reagan (R) 489 Anderson (I) * Kerry (D) 252 Bush (R) Carter (D) 297 Ford (R) * Gore (D) 267 Bush (R) * McGovern (D) 17 Nixon (R) Clinton (D) 379 Dole (R) * Humphrey (D) 191 Perot (I) 0 Nixon (R) 302 Wallace (AI) Clinton (D) 370 Bush (R) Johnson (D) 486 Perot (I) 0 Goldwater (R) Dukakis (D) 112 Bush (R) 426 *In each of these elections, one elector defected so that the actual totals were: 1968: ; 1972: ; 2000: ; and in 2004:

6 2012 Election Map AK HI Mark Newman, University of Michigan Reprinted with permission

7 2012 Election Map 48 States Colored to reflect party percentages in each county Mark Newman, University of Michigan Reprinted with permission

8 2014 FACT SHEET CURRENT PARTY STRENGTHS D R Ind U.S. Senate * U.S. House Governors (*Vote with the Democrats) - 4 -

9 Recent WAVE Elections for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate Losses for Party Holding White House House Senate Year Party in White House Result Result Type 1974 Republicans STMT 1980 Democrats * PRES 1994 Democrats - 52* - 8* FTMT 2006 Republicans - 31* - 6* STMT 2010 Democrats - 63* - 6 FTMT PRES = Presidential Election Year FTMT = First Term, Mid-term Election STMT = Second Term, Mid-term Election *control shift - 5 -

10 2014 Election Analysis As of October 30, 2014, polls show a Republican mini-wave developing, with the GOP poised to modestly expand its majority in the US House of Representatives, take over the U.S. Senate and retain a majority of the state governorships. Reasons for the surge are rooted in Obama fatigue which seems to affect two term Presidents in their sixth year in office. Eight years ago, with Bush fatigue setting in, the Democrats took over the Congress in the 2006 wave. National Security and a fragile economy are also playing a roll this year. The turnout may be low; there appear to be pockets of apathy throughout the country, but there is also plenty of anger. The electorate is as polarized as ever. Incumbent governors of both political parties are embattled, and while the overall partisan numbers shouldn t change much, several incumbent governors may be facing defeat, including the governors of Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania. Independents are also emerging as challengers with an independent leading in the Kansas Senate race and in the Alaska governor s race. The day after the election, jockeying for the 2016 Presidential race will begin, with some of the candidates emerging from this year s election results

11 SENATE, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND GOVERNOR RACES Senate The current lineup in the U.S. Senate is 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans (including two independents who vote with the Democrats). Not up for election are 34 Democrats and 30 Republicans. There are 36 seats up for election, 21 held by Democrats and 15 held by Republicans. 11 Democratic seats and 12 Republican seats are considered safe. If that is true, then the analysis of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress begins with 45 Democratic seats and 42 Republican seats. There seems to be general agreement that the Republicans will take seats from the Democrats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. This brings the total to 45 Democrats and 45 Republicans. Moreover, the Republican candidate is leading in Alaska, Kentucky and Louisiana and an Independent in Kansas, which, if true, makes the count 45 Democrats and 48 Republicans, with one Independent. The remaining six races are too close to call: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire. Five of these seats are held by Democrats and one by a Republican. Best guess: The Republicans win the Senate with a gain of 6 to 8 seats. U.S. House of Representatives The current lineup is 234 Republicans and 201 Democrats. Most commentators seem to think that the Republicans will add five to ten seats. Governor This cycle offers 36 races for governor. The current lineup nationally is 21 Democrats and 29 Republicans. Seven Democratic chairs and seven Republican chairs are not up for election this year. Thirteen Republican chairs and four Democratic chairs are considered by various pundits and polls to be safe. If so, then the 50 state count, including chairs not up this year, begins at 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats. There is general agreement that the Democrats will gain a chair in Pennsylvania. Republicans appear to be ahead in Arizona and Arkansas and Democrats in Hawaii, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon. This brings the count to 22 Republicans and 16 Democrats. That leaves 12 close races: Alaska (where an independent is slightly - 7 -

12 ahead), Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. An unusually large number of incumbent governors, in both political parties, are in danger of being ousted. Best guess, the Democrats lose one chair for a split. Watch Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin

13 2014 U.S. SENATE RACES NORTHEAST State Incumbent (D) (R) (I) Party Delaware (D) Coons* Wade Maine (R) Bellows Collins* Massachusetts (D) Markey* Herr New Jersey (D) Booker* Bell New Hampshire (D) Shaheen* Brown Rhode Island (D) Reed* Zaccaria Total seats: 6 (D-5; R-1) MIDWEST State Incumbent (D) (R) (I) Party Illinois (D) Durbin* Oberweis Iowa (D) Braley Ernst Kansas (R) None Roberts* Orman Michigan (D) Peters Land Minnesota (D) Franken* McFadden Nebraska (R) Domina Sasse Oklahoma A (R) Silverstein Inhofe* Oklahoma B (R) Johnson Lankford** South Dakota (D) Weiland Rounds Pressler *Incumbent Total seats: 9 (D-5; R-4) **Special election to fill the seat vacated by the early retirement of Senator Tom Coburn

14 2014 U.S. SENATE RACES (continued) SOUTH State Incumbent Party (D) (R) Alabama (R) None Sessions* Arkansas (D) Pryor* Cotton Georgia (R) Nunn Perdue Kentucky (R) Lundergan-Grimes McConnell* Louisiana (D) Landrieu* Cassidy Mississippi (R) Childers Cochran* North Carolina (D) Hagan* Tillis South Carolina A (R) Hutto Graham* South Carolina B (R) Dickerson Scott** Tennessee (R) Ball Alexander* Texas (R) Alameel Cornyn* Virginia (D) Warner* Gillespie West Virginia (D) Tennant Moore-Capito Total seats: 13 (D-5; R-8) *Incumbent **This is a special election to fill Jim DeMint s seat vacated by his resignation. Scott was appointed

15 2014 U.S. SENATE RACES (continued) WEST State Incumbent Party (D) (R) Alaska (D) Begich* Sullivan Colorado (D) Udall* Gardner Hawaii** (D) Schatz* Cavasso Idaho (R) Mitchell Risch* Montana (D) Curtis Daines New Mexico (D) Udall* Weh Oregon (D) Merkley* Wehby Wyoming (R) Hardy Enzi* Total seats: 8 (D-6; R-2) *Incumbent **Special election to fill the seat vacated by the death of Senator Daniel Inouye in

16 2014 GUBERNATORIAL RACES NORTHEAST State Incumbent Party (D) (R) (I) Connecticut (D) Malloy* Foley Maine (R) Michaud LePage* Cutler Maryland (D) Brown Hogan Massachusetts (D) Coakely Baker New Hampshire (D) Hassan* Havenstein New York (D) Cuomo* Astorino Pennsylvania (R) Wolf Corbett* Rhode Island (D) Raimondo Fung Vermont (D) Shumlin* Milne *Incumbent Total seats: 9 (D-7; R-2)

17 2014 GUBERNATORIAL RACES MIDWEST State Incumbent Party (D) (R) Illinois (D) Quinn* Rauner Iowa (R) Hatch Brandstad* Kansas (R) Davis Brownback* Michigan (R) Schauer Snyder* Minnesota (D) Dayton* Johnson Nebraska (R) Hassebrook Ricketts Ohio (R) FitzGerald Kasich* Oklahoma (R) Dorman Fallin* South Dakota (R) Wismer Daugaard* Wisconsin (R) Burke Walker* *Incumbent Total seats: 10 (D-2; R-8)

18 2014 GUBERNATORIAL RACES SOUTH State Incumbent Party (D) (R) (I) Alabama (R) Griffith Bentley* Arkansas (D) Ross Hutchinson Florida (R) Crist Scott* Wyllie Georgia (R) Carter Deal* South Carolina (R) Sheheen Haley* Tennessee (R) Brown Haslam* Texas (R) Davis Abbott *Incumbent (Total seats: 7 (D-1; R-6)

19 2014 GUBERNATORIAL RACES WEST State Incumbent Party (D) (R) (I) Alaska (R) No Candidate Parnell* Walker Arizona (R) DuVal Ducey California (D) Brown* Kashkari Colorado (D) Hickenlooper* Beauprez Hawaii (D) Ige* Aiona Idaho (R) Balukoff Otter* Nevada (R) Goodman Sandoval* New Mexico (R) King Martinez* Oregon (D) Kitzhaber* Richardson Wyoming (R) Gosar Mead* *Incumbent Total seats: 10 (D-4; R-6)

20 CALIFORNIA 2014 CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICE RACES Office Incumbent Party (D) (R) Governor (D) Brown* Kashkari Lt. Governor (D) Newsom* Nehring Attorney General (D) Harris* Gold Treasurer (D) Chiang Conlon Controller (D) Yee Swearengin Secretary of State (D) Padilla Peterson Insurance Comsnr. (D) Jones* Gaines *Incumbent Total seats: 7 (D-7; R-0) The Republicans are poised to do much worse in California than in the rest of the country with the Democrats expected to win most of the statewide offices. Brown leads Kashkari. Few changes are expected in the Legislature and the State s Congressional delegation