Election night race results timeline

Transcription

1 Election night race results timeline NUMBERS TO REMEMBER Democrats need to flip 2 seats in the Senate and 23 in the House to capture a majority. The GOP is defending 40 open seats in the House. Senate Democrats must defend 26 of the 35 seats up this cycle. 36 states have Governors races; 26 held by the GOP, 9 by Democrats and 1 Independent. 15 are open seats. 82% of all state legislative seats are up for election. HISTORY TO CONSIDER Midterms are historically bad for the party in power with average losses of 4 seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House. The president s party loses an average of 350 legislative seats in midterm elections. THE BATTLEGROUND The Senate Democrats must defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Republicans must defend one seat in a state won by Clinton in The House has a field of roughly 96 seats, 88 Rs and 8 Ds, considered competitive. Of those 88 GOP held seats, 19 are open and 25 were won by Hillary Clinton in Of the 26 Republican-held Governor s seats up for election, 16 are battlegrounds, including 10 of the 13 open seats. Of the nine Democratic-held seats up for election, eight all except Hawaii are battlegrounds. Alaska s independentheld seat is also a battleground. A FEW META QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER AS ONE WATCHES THE ELECTION RETURNS How early in the evening will the networks make a call in the race for control of the House? Given the number of competitive House races out west, an early call seems unlikely. A call for the Democrats before 11:00 PM EST in the race for House control would indicate that a Democratic wave has materialized and that House Dems are likely to pick up at least seats, providing them with a workable margin in the next Congress. How closely will the results in the competitive Senate races track with the President s popularity in those states? In other words, to what degree are the results in the competitive Senate races a referendum on President Trump or are these results driven primarily by the strength of the candidates and state-specific issues? Will the Democrats capture as many Governors races as the pundits are predicting? If a strong number of Democratic Governor pickups materializes, this will have significant implications for both the 2020 presidential election and for the redistricting that will follow in dentons.com

2 6-7 pm 7:30 pm 8 pm 8:30-9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12-1 am ELECTION TIMELINE 6:00 PM POLLS CLOSED IN MOST OF INDIANA, KENTUCKY Polls close in those portions of Indiana and Kentucky that are in the Eastern time zone while polls in the rest of each state close at 7:00 PM. Races to watch: IN-SEN, IN-02, KY-06 In Indiana, incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly faces Republican businessman Mike Braun. While an average of the most recent polling has Donnelly modestly ahead by less than 1% (.8%), well within the margin of error, most observers consider this race a toss-up. An early call for either Senate candidate would suggest that the party of the winning candidate is likely to have a good night. Marion County will take a while to release its first count (probably looking at 6:45pm-7pm) but should be strongly pro-donnelly. A weaker margin there means a good night for Braun. Before we see Indianapolis report, though, we should be seeing returns in Clark, Hamilton, St Joseph and Marshall. The last time that he ran, Senator Donnelly carried Clark and St Joseph and kept his margins of loss smaller in the other two. If he s repeating that performance, he s on his way to re-election, but if each county slides to the right a la Evan Bayh in 2016, the race could be over before CST-time zone counties like Vanderburgh and Laporte get to weigh in. While you re watching Indiana, pay attention to St Joseph and Marshall for Indiana 2, incumbent Republican Congresswoman Jackie Walorski s district, where Walorski is considered likely to defeat Democrat Mel Hall despite Hall s considerable spending in a district that President Trump won by 23% in If this race is running close in the first hour, it s a bad sign nationally for the GOP. A victory or a narrow loss by Hall would mean that House Republicans are in for a very challenging evening Jump across the Ohio river into Kentucky, and you find one major race: KY-06, one of the true bellwether House races of this cycle, a race where, beginning in early August, the incumbent has run a slew of negative ads against his opponent. Seeking a 4th term, conservative incumbent Republican Congressman Andy Barr, the Chairman of the Congressional Horse Caucus, faces political newcomer, Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel who was one of the first woman fighter pilots in the US military. Barr calls McGrath a pro-choice feminist and long-time supporter of President Obama who is simply too liberal for Kentucky. McGrath calls Barr Mitch McConnell s handpicked congressman, a career politician controlled by large donors who said he would vote enthusiastically to take healthcare away from over a quarter million Kentuckians. Citing her mother s successful battle against polio, McGrath says ensuring access to health care is important and highly personal to her. Building upon the enormous momentum that began when her campaign announcement video went viral, McGrath has made this a tossup race. The 538 forecast from Nate Silver has this race moving in the past week modestly in favor of McGrath. The initial votes to be reported in this race will likely come from Democratic leaning Fayette County. Expect McGrath, then, to have an early lead. If she doesn t, with Fayette reporting (and quickly), McGrath s odds of an upset win through rural pockets are extremely small. That said, if 2 dentons.com

3 McGrath has a ten-point lead or greater when Fayette has reported, she may be able to blunt Republican margins in the smaller areas. While it would not be a huge surprise if Barr hangs on, a win by McGrath, particularly if called early in the evening, would be a very good omen for House Democrats prospects nationally. 7:00 PM POLLS CLOSED IN ALL OF INDIANA, KENTUCKY, VIRGINIA, VERMONT, GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, MOST OF FLORIDA, MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE Races to watch before 7:30pm: VA2, VA7, VA10, VT GOV, SC01, NH01, NH GOV 7:00 PM Two nationally important Governor races in Florida and Georgia, a key Senate race in Florida, seven competitive House races in Florida and four competitive House races in Virginia highlight this poll closing hour. Florida provides the marquee Senate race during this poll closing where incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson faces term-limited Republican Governor Rick Scott in what is the most expensive Senate race in this cycle. The Real Clear Politics average of polling data in the last week indicates that Nelson has a 3.2% lead over Scott, a lead inside the margin of error. In the race to succeed Florida Governor Scott, Tallahassee Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum faces Trump favorite Republican former Congressman Ron DeSantis, a race where mud has flown early and often with DeSantis arguing that Gillum is a corrupt politician who is on the take and Gillum accusing DeSantis of consorting with, and seeking the support of, racists. The Georgia Governor s race, where Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp faces Democrat Stacey Abrams, has been equally heated with Democrats having just won a lawsuit challenging Secretary of State Kemp s practice of rejecting the voter registrations of potential voters whose applications vary in any respect from the name on the voter rolls. Kemp has indicated that he plans to supervise the election in his capacity as the Secretary of State even if this race ends up going to a runoff in December. This race is a true tossup. Abrams is expected to run up a huge lead in the greater Atlanta area. The open question is whether this lead will be large enough to offset Kemp s strength in the rest of the state, particularly the rural areas. Two New England gubernatorial races worth watching are both held by Republican incumbents with positive approval ratings and leads in limited polling- and they are perfect targets for Democrats. New Hampshire features a high concentration of independents, a group who, in polling, seem to currently favor Democrats. Vermont is a progressive state which barely gave a county to President Donald Trump, nevertheless its Republican incumbent Phil Scott won by a convincing margin in the same year. Scott faces off against transgender candidate Christine Hallquist in what most are calling a safe race, but a poll by the VT Democratic Party found the Governor holding onto an eight point lead last month. Considering the political lean of the state and the general environment, a weak performance by Scott would bode poorly, however unlikely this turn of events, for other Republican candidates who have distanced themselves from the President. Keep an eye on central Vermont and Rutland, the latter a comparative Republican stronghold. In neighboring New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Chris Sununu sports a polling lead and favorable approval ratings but again faces an unpleasant political environment. Watch returns from Rochester, Barrington, and Manchester counties in the first thirty minutes- most will have reported by then and a roughly even performance for Sununu keeps him in the game, an outright edge overall in these counties indicates he s winning re-election. Sticking around in New England, New Hampshire s 1st Congressional District is an important race for a number of reasons. First, because it has closely mirrored the national Congressional popular vote percentage margin in each of the last six House elections. Second, it s an open contest, with no incumbent running for re-election, giving us a possible glimpse of what may transpire in close open seat elections to come later in the evening. Watch returns from Laconia, Rochester, Barrington, and Manchester counties for clues before 7:30pm. Leaving New England for Dixie, we encounter a trio of Virginia races and an interesting one in South Carolina. In South Carolina s 1st district, the incumbent Congressman Mark Sanford was defeated in the Republican primary by the more Trump-friendly candidate Katie Arrington. Arrington suffered serious injuries in a car accident just after the primary, prompting her Democratic opponent, Joe Cunningham, to suspend his campaign out of respect. They ve been back at it since, and it remains the strongest opportunity in the state for a Democratic pickup. A win by the Democrat here, coupled with a close victory by Democrat Amy McGrath in Kentucky 6, could mean an early call of House control for the Democrats. Watch Charleston County s returns in particular to discern the way the race is turning. Finally while eyeballing all of these contests, take a gander at the Old Dominion where Democrats are demonstrating that Virginia has become a true purple state. Four House seats are considered competitive, and three will give early indicators of how much so. In Virginia s 2nd, watch the quick returns out of Virginia Beach- this region should vote strongly Republican, so if Elaine Luria (D) is ahead of incumbent Republican Congressman Scott Taylor, it s looking like a bad night for Virginia Republicans. Things probably won t be looking hot for Rep. Dave Brat in the 7th Congressional district if the 2nd is terrible for Republicans- monitor Chesterfield County for a very early indicator. 3 dentons.com

4 The 10th Congressional district in the DC Northern Virginia suburbs, where President Trump is quite unpopular, is the prototype of the type of Congressional district that Democrats must win to recapture the House and Democrats expect to win it. Recent polling supports the Democrats confidence. While incumbent Republican Congresswoman Barbara Comstock is a strong retail campaigner who has raised and is spending a lot of money in her efforts to defeat Democratic candidate Jennifer Wexton, given the demographics of this district, it seems safe to say that if Wexton does not win here, the Democrats are highly unlikely to recapture control of the House. If Comstock somehow holds on in Loudon County, which reports its vote the earliest, she has a chance to retain her seat, but if VA2 and VA7 are already looking bleak for Republicans, don t expect Loudon to be more cheerful. There is a fourth district also worth watching, VA05, but most of its vote won t be counted by 7:30pm. Important note for results watchers: Don t get sucked into watching Florida, Georgia, much of rural Virginia and South Carolina just yet, as they will barely be reporting until after 7:30 pm. 7:30PM POLLS CLOSING IN WEST VIRGINIA, OHIO, NORTH CAROLINA. Races to watch: FL GOV, FL SEN, FL-6, FL-15, FL-16, FL 26, FL-27, WV SEN, WV-3, OH GOV, OH-1, OH-7, OH-10, OH-12, NC-8, NC-9, NC-13 By this point, nearly all of Florida s early vote will be in, except Broward which always takes its sweet time. Watch both the Governor and U.S. Senate races. If Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson are leading by wide margins, they ll both overcome the more Republican-leaning election day vote. They almost certainly will be well ahead once Broward finally drops its early vote between 7:35 and 7:45pm. A close contest is going to drag a while through the election day vote count, which will begin roughly now and continue well past 11:30pm. Returns in Florida s 26th and 27th should be giving us a good idea of how both the Governor s race and the Senate race will finish. Early votes will pile in from Ohio over the next 45 minutes. Expect a Democratic lead in the Governor s race, in OH- 12, and even OH-1 at this stage. The election day vote will determine the Republicans fates, unless they re out of the early vote gate ahead, in which case it s game over for their Democratic challengers. West Virginia votes will roll in slowly where Senator Joe Manchin is considered likely to win re-election despite President Trump s efforts to defeat him, and don t expect a lot of vote reporting in WV-03 in the first thirty minutes. North Carolina features a pile of potentially close contests but two to watch most are NC-09 and NC-13. Republicans in both will likely trail in the initial vote- all of it early. In New Hampshire, returns in Portsmouth, Rochester, Manchester, Concord, Hanover and Dover will likely be in or mostly so by now, affecting the NH-Gov and NH-01 open seat contests. With this batch of precincts in, expect a narrow Democratic lead for Governor and a moderate Democratic lead in NH-01. Anything less than that means a soon-to-call victory for Governor Sununu, and the possibility that republican Eddie Edwards could pull off a surprise in the First District. 8:00PM POLLS CLOSE IN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, NEW JERSEY, CONNECTICUT, MASSACHUSETTS, ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, MAINE, TEXAS (MOST), OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN (MOST), AND PENNSYLVANIA Races to watch: NJ SEN, TX SEN, MO SEN, TN SEN, IL -6, IL-12, IL-13, IL-14, KS-2, KS-3, MI-1, MI-8, MI-11, MO-2, NE-2, PA-1, PA-6, PA-7, PA-*, PA-10, PA-14, PA-17, CT GOV, IL GOV, KS GOV, ME GOV, MI GOV, MO GOV, PA GOV A true blue wave will be strongly evident over the next thirty minutes: NJ2, NJ3, NJ7, NJ11, PA1, PA 5, PA6, IL6, IL12, IL13, IL14, MI8, M11, TX7, TX32, M02, NE2, KS2, KS3, ME2 will all start reporting within this time. Some, like TX7, TX32, you ll need to wait for election day returns if close, but the rest won t have an election day vs early vote split. The U.S. Senate races should be called by now for Pennsylvania and Ohio. Michigan Governor will look obvious if the polling holds, as will Maryland, Massachusetts, Alabama, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. For Tennessee and Texas Senate, watch the initial early vote, which will be in from every urban, suburban, and exurban county in the next minutes (except Shelby in Tennessee, which takes a while). If Democrats really are going to pull off an upset in either, it will be evident in these early returns. If they fail to carry the early vote in either state, you re close to writing it off. Watch, with particular interest, the Republican margins for Senator Ted Cruz in Fort Bend, Denton, and his deficit in Harris. If the former two are in the double digits, and the latter within ten or less, it will indeed be a fast victory for Cruz when El Paso closes one hour later. If Democratic challenger Congressman Beto O Rourke s margin in Harris County is 15% or more, this race is likely to go to the wire and could even be an upset for O Rourke. 8:30pm Election day votes will be in for TX32, FL26, FL27, OH1, OH12, so if none were blowouts 30 minutes to an hour before, this time period is now do-or-die for the trailing candidates. Arkansas closes, and AR-02 is the only race worth watching there, but if it s close for the Republican incumbent, odds are we are already over a dozen seats having flipped to Team Blue. Maine s Second District, which makes up the contested portion of the state for the Gubernatorial race, begins reporting. 4 dentons.com

5 The early votes from the exurbs of Atlanta have rolled in for Georgia Governor. In theory, as we move closer to Atlanta, the closer the final result will become. Ohio Governor should begin shifting towards Republican Mike DeWine If he is going to become the eventual winner, but if a likely early vote Cordray lead hasn t budged, DeWine s heartburn begins. Assuming things do narrow, watch carefully what remains for election day from Butler, Cuyahoga, Delaware, Franklin, Hamilton and Licking counties. Run up to 9:00pm ALL polls have now closed in Texas, Michigan, New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado begins counting its votes. NBC News had called control of the US House in 2010 for the Republican Party at 9:06pm. Texas and Michigan s respective Gubernatorial and Senatorial races should be called at this time, if polling holds. If polling doesn t, well, you ll have to wait until next week to see where you need to look next! 9:00PM ALL POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED IN TEXAS, MICHIGAN, NEW YORK, WISCONSIN, NEW MEXICO, MINNESOTA, AND COLORADO BEGIN COUNTING ITS VOTES. Races to watch: WI GOV, WI -1, WI-6,MN GOV,MN-1, MN-2, MN-3, MN-7, MN-8, CO-3, CO-6, CO GOV, MN GOV, NM GOV, NM-1, NM-2 NBC News had called control of the US House in 2010 for the Republican Party at 9:06pm. Texas and Michigan s respective Gubernatorial and Senatorial races should be called at this time, if polling holds. If the polling doesn t hold, well, you ll have to wait until next week to see where you need to look next! With House races at this point likely called in Florida, Virginia, Georgia, New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, the focus shifts further west toward states whose results are piling up by this point (Illinois 6th, Michigan 8th, Missouri 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Kansas 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Texas 7th, Texas 23rd, Texas 32nd). If these races have been drawn-out slogs since polls closed, they would be nearing the end at this point. Wisconsin s Gubernatorial contest will either resolve rapidly or drag on, and we ll know in the first twenty-five minutes. That s how long you ll need to wait for Dane, Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Brown, Outagamie and Rock counties to start reporting- and for Waukesha and Dane to clear 25-35% of their total vote. If Governor Scott Walker is winning the WOW counties by a margin larger than his Democratic challenger Tony Evers is winning Dane, Walker has a fighting chance for a third term. If not, his window closes rapidly as rural Wisconsin either saves or finishes him. 9:30pm New York returns begin piling in for NY1, NY11, NY-19, NY-22, while returns in downstate Illinois should be indicating either a sweeping R hold or, if the Democratic wave materializes with full force, this becomes yet another region with Democratic gains. Minnesota s returns in MN-1 and MN-8 should begin to roll in as well, providing Republicans with their two best chances of flipping seats, while MN-2 and MN-3 are likely to be rolling in the opposite direction. Meanwhile in Colorado, the outcome in CO-06 and the Governor s race should become obvious as Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe County have dumped in the majority of their votes. 10:00PM IOWA POLLS CLOSE, NEVADA S AND MONTANA S AND ARIZONA S TOO, AND THE FINAL ROUND OF PRECINCTS IN NORTH DAKOTA. Races to watch: AZ SEN, MT SEN, NV SEN, ND SEN, IA GOV, NV GOV, IA-1, IA-3, MT-AL, NV-3, NV-4, UT-4 Early voting from Clark and Washoe county will post first in the Silver State of Nevada, making or breaking incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller s re-election campaign. Early votes from Maricopa, Pima, Pinal and Yuma will report first in the State of Arizona. Arizona s polls actually closed an hour earlier, but due to a state law prohibiting the reporting of returns for a full hour after close, a huge vote drop will roll in just minutes after the hour. Tennessee, if a close Senate contest, reaches its conclusion by now, as Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson (Nashville) drop in the last of their votes by this time. 10:30pm Missouri has been considered one of the most contested Senate battlegrounds since Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill won re-election in With over 150 minutes of returns piling in, Kansas City and St Louis City will have finally reported the bulk of their votes by this point. Her Republican opponent, Attorney General Josh Hawley, may yet have rural areas remaining for votes, but McCaskill, if she is trailing at this point, will need those last drops of city returns to finish ahead. Iowa s rural counties begin to report their election-day returns as the early votes have fully reported by now. The Governor s and House contests will begin to see calls if polling holds, if not it, will be another hour or so before enough of the rural vote reports to determine if Republicans can hold on. Nevada s full early vote has reported by this time, and the rural counties begin to report their election day tallies. Clark is easily another hour away from posting its first dump of election day votes, but at this time if Senator Dean Heller is already down, he isn t likely to turn things around. In Georgia, the Governor s race started off the night with a considerable lead for Brian Kemp, because the rural southern third reports first. But by 1030pm, the early vote, and the election day vote, has begun to report in from the metro Atlanta area. Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, and Fulton will have most of their eventual vote reporting by this time. Watch the margins- if neither candidate can get above 50% of the vote as the ATL reports, we re headed for a runoff on December. 5 dentons.com

6 Montana s early vote is fully in by this point, and election day returns begin to report from Lewis and Clark County. In the Senate race, Jon Tester has won squeakers before, so don t take a small lead or a small deficit to mean much quite yet. The at-large House race may also be competitive: if Gianforte isn t running ahead of the Republican Senate candidate, he s in serious trouble and we re in for a long count. While incumbent North Dakota Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is considered to be a strong retail campaigner, recent polling continues to show her well behind her Republican opponent Congressman Kevin Cramer. At this point, it would be a major upset if Heitkamp were to win re-election. 11:00 PM CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON AND HAWAII POLLS CLOSE. (OREGON AND WASHINGTON ARE ENTIRELY BALLOTS BY MAIL) Races to watch: CA-4, CA-10, CA-21, CA-22, CA-25, CA- 39, CA-45, CA-48- CA-49, CA-50, WA-5, WA-8, CA GOV, HI GOV, OR GOV Unless a true Democratic wave materializes, control of the House could still be in play at 11:00 PM EST when the polls close in California and votes begin to be counted. Given the number of competitive California House races, the results in the California races, several of which are considered to be quite close, well within the margin of polling error, could determine which party will control the House. At a minimum, these results will determine the size of the margin that the controlling party will have in the House and will be crucial to whether any party obtains an effective working majority. Moreover, given the way that California counts votes and the many thousands of absentee, military and contested ballots that will have to be considered, it will be days, and in some cases, weeks, before the outcome is final. Thus, it remains possible, though not currently likely, that in a worst case scenario, it could be weeks before we even know which party will control the House in the next Congress. 12:00 am- ALASKA Races to watch: AK GOV, AK-ALL In the Governor s race, 10 days ago, Republican Mike Dunleavy had been considered a lock to win election with a double-digit lead over each of the other two candidates. However, the dynamics of this race then changed enormously when Governor Bill Walker, an independent, having concluded that he could not win re-election, dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate, former Alaska Senator Mark Begich. Since then, most of Walker s supporters have flocked to Begich and this now-one-on-one race has become extremely competitive. The most recent polling gives Dunleavy a 48-44% lead over Begich, within the poll s margin of error. While the Dean of the House, Don Young, first elected in 1973, remains favored for re-election in AK-ALL, the likelihood of a more competitive Governor s race could improve the prospects of the Democratic candidate Alyse Galvin Dentons. Dentons is a global legal practice providing client services worldwide through its member firms and affiliates. This publication is not designed to provide legal or other advice and you should not take, or refrain from taking, action based on its content. Please see dentons.com for Legal Notices. CSBrand Election Night Race Results Timeline-09 02/11/ dentons.com