IPSA International Conference Concordia University, Montreal (Quebec), Canada April 30 May 2, 2008

Transcription

1 IPSA International Conference Concordia University, Montreal (Quebec), Canada April 30 May 2, 2008 Yuri A. Polunin, Sc. D., Professor. Phone: +7 (495) : polunin@expert.ru polunin@crpi.ru Mikhail G. Mironyuk, Ph. D., Assistant Professor. Phone: +7 (495) : mironyuk@mgimo.ru Ivan N. Timofeev, Ph. D., Senior Lecturer. Phone: + 7 (495) timofeev@mgimo.ru 1

2 POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD: UNDERSTANDING THE NON- LINEAR DYNAMICS OF THE WORLD POLITIES 1 Abstract The question about the structure of the world system and its dynamics represents a serious challenge for the students of International Relations. Our idea was to reveal this structure and to classify the world polities. We composed a unique database of 60 variables, aggregated into 5 indices: index of state consistency, index of national threats, index of capacity for international influence, quality of life index, index of institutional basis of democracy. By means of the principle components analysis and cluster analysis we created a classification of 192 countries-un members. The results are well compatible with the ones of our colleagues (such as Bertelsmann Stiftung), providing additional sources of data interpretation and giving prospects for interproject cooperation. The next step implies the analysis of the world polities dynamics. We suppose that it may be understood by means of non-linear models in terms of attractors types, the limits and the intensity of the polities growth, the level of competition between them, etc. Thus, we will focus on the methods of the world polities classification as well as on the non-linear approaches to the study of countries dynamics within particular clusters. 1 Political Atlas of the World is a project of Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO- University), Expert Journal and the Institute of Social Construction. Professor Andrei Melville is the head of the project. 2

3 POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD: UNDERSTANDING THE NON- LINEAR DYNAMICS OF THE WORLD POLITIES The contemporary world is extremely heterogeneous. Its building blocks more than 190 sovereign states possess unique features and characteristics. They play specific roles in the world, have different levels and stages of development, articulate particular national agendas and have various political systems and regimes. Such a diversity represents a serious challenge for the students of comparative studies and international relations. This challenge is related to the question of the methods and criteria of comparative analysis of the world. On the one hand, these methods and criteria should make all the world polities comparable. On the other they should be more or less formalized i.e. include appropriate quantitative procedures applied to valid and reliable data. Taking to a very serious consideration the experience of our colleagues (Bertelsmann Stiftung, POLITY projects, Freedom House, etc.) we decided to face the challenge of a global comparison in a multi-dimensional logic. Our idea was to reveal the peculiarities of the world polities and to classify them by means of a number of criteria, which would reflect completely different aspects of their performance. Thus, we intended to design political atlas but not the political map of the world. The choice of the criteria was based on the assumption that the world polities may be classified according to the following factors: quality and efficiency of the state ( stateness ), ability to respond to external and internal threats and challenges, capacity to influence internal environment, ability to maintain the well-being of the population, institutional basis of democracy traditions and practices of competition, representation, participation and separation of powers. Following these assumptions we constructed five indices which represent the corresponding dimensions of countries performance. Index of state consistency Index of national threats Index of capacity for international influence Quality of life index Index of institutional basis of democracy Each index consists of a number of quantified variables. Thus, a unique database of approximately 60 variables for 192 countries UN members was designed. These variables are taken from the recognized international sources and are relevant for the period of All the indices were calculated in an innovative way by means of discriminant analysis. Such kind of analysis allowed us to reveal different weights of variables, which made the 3

4 corresponding contributions to the discriminant functions. The values of discriminant functions, normalized to 0-10 scale, serve as index values. Countries are ranked on the basis of these values. The acquired indices may serve as a research tool with wide range of options. For instance, indices may be considered as dependent or independent variables and correlated with each other. In doing so, it is possible to verify a number of hypotheses: for example the hypotheses on the relations between democracy and state consistency, national threats, international influence and quality of life. Another option is to reveal the interconnection of our indices with the ones of our colleagues such as Bertelsmann Transformations Index, Polity indices, etc. This option may provide additional sources of data interpretation and give prospects for inter-project cooperation. At the same time, indices and country ratings themselves are not the main goal of the project. Their implementation for the multidimensional analysis is limited by the significant correlations between them. To solve this problem the method of principle components was used. We revealed four non-correlated components, which explain 100% of variance. To interpret the components the factor loading of indices were taken into account. One of the most significant achievements of this step was the calculation of the measure of each country s explanation by the principal components. It allows to understand those features of a country which constitute its unique character. Besides that, it makes possible to understand the structures and interrelations of the countries in the space of components. These components are the following: National survival and its quality ( threats vs. quality of life ) State basis of democracy ( stateness vs. democracy ) Human price of stateness ( stateness vs. quality of life ) Maximization of influence ( capacity for international influence ) Having obtained the measures of countries explanations by the non-correlated components, we acquired a possibility for the purely multidimensional classification of the world polities. Such a classification was conducted by means of cluster analysis. Each cluster is composed of countries, which are most similar in terms of their explanation by the principle components i.e. by the countries with the same characteristic features. The following examples of clusters can be mentioned: leaders of influence, introvert democracies, under threat countries, democratic clones, autocracies with problematic stateness, autocracies with strong stateness, etc. 4

5 Our strategic goal implies the enlargement of the projects database and creation of time-series, which should cover the period of The non-linear models seem to be the most prospective tool for the analysis of countries dynamics. Verhulst process, Feigenbaum scenario, Hopf bifurcation are the examples of such models. They represent a perfect method for the analysis of countries development in terms of attractors types, the limits and the intensity of the polities growth, the level of competition between them, etc. We have already implemented these models taking the UN Human Development Index time-series to test the methodology. It was revealed that countries, which belong to the same clusters, tend to demonstrate similar dynamics. Thus, the dynamics of developed counties is characterized by point attractor i.e. it is quite stable, also the quality of life in these countries is closed to its limits or in other words - the limits of the niche. On the contrary, the underdeveloped countries are often characterized by the strange attractor. Their development tends to be chaotic, being interrupted by instability and internal conflicts. The utilization of non-linear models, taking five indices as changing parameters, represents one of the research challenges of the project, which is to be continued. 5