OECD SKILLS STRATEGY FLANDERS DIAGNOSTIC WORKSHOP

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1 OECD SKILLS STRATEGY FLANDERS DIAGNOSTIC WORKSHOP Dirk Van Damme Head of Division OECD Centre for Skills Education and Skills Directorate 15 May 218 Use Pigeonhole for your questions 1

2 WHY DO SKILLS MATTER? 3 Why do countries need skills strategies? Skills empower countries and people to.thrive in our increasingly interconnected and rapidly changing world 2

3 Trends shaping education and skills GLOBALISATION TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE,5,4,3,2,1 -,1 -,2 -,3 -,4 -,5 -,6 Skilled workers are less likely to have routine jobs Correlation between country-industries employment share in high routine jobs and average workers skills Literacy skills Numeracy skills Problem solving skills in Physical skills technology-rich Notes: environments - High routine jobs are based on official occupation or sector classifications - The employment share in high routine intensity tasks is an average over the period Average workers skills are in 212. Source: OECD Skills outlook 217, Figure

4 An increasing share of jobs requires higher levels of skills Employment opportunities by typical education requirements of occupations, historical and projected, OECD-EU countries, Shares of employment growth 1 % 8 Primary (ISCED97-1) Tertiary non-university (ISCED97-5B) 78.5 Secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary (ISCED ) Tertiary - university (ISCED97-5A+6) Note: the OECD-EU countries refers to the 22 countries that are members of both the European Union and the OECD. These 22 countries are Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom; Education level requirements have been estimated using the International Standard Classification of Education 1997 (ISCED97). Source: OECD calculations based on CEDEFOP (217), EU-CEDEFOP database: Employment trends Higher skill proficiency is associated with improved social and economic outcomes Likelihood of positive social and economic outcomes among highly literate adults Odds ratio 3, 2,9 2,8 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, High wages High levels of political efficacy Participation in volunteer activities High levels of trust Being employed Good to excellent health Note: Increased likelihood (odds ratio) of adults scoring at Level 4/5 in literacy reporting high earnings, high levels of trust and political efficacy, good health, participating in volunteer activities and being employed, compared with adults scoring at or below Level 1 in literacy (adjusted) Source: OECD Skills Outlook 213 4

5 WHAT IS THE SOCIO- ECONOMIC CONTEXT FOR FLANDERS? 9 Demographic change makes productivity growth increasingly important in Growth productivity and labour utilisation in, 27=1 13 Real growth index of labour productivity (GVA / employment) Growth index of labour utilisation (Employment / Population) Source: OECD (218), Dataset: Regional Economy. 5

6 The share of population which is inactive is relatively high Economic inactivity rate, selection of countries, year-olds, 216 % of population Switzerland Denmark Sweden Austria Source: Eurostat (218), Regional Employment, LFS Brussels European Union Luxembourg France Belgium Wallonia Well-being in Belgium is generally high compared to the OECD average OECD Better Life Index Belgium OECD Subjective well-being Personal security Income and wealth Jobs and earnings Housing Note: Each well-being dimension is measured using 1-3 Better Life Indicators with equal weight, and are normalised by re-scaling to be from (worst) to 1 (best). Source: OECD (217), OECD Economic Surveys: Belgium Environmental quality Work-Life balance Civic engagement and governance Health status Social connections Education and skills 6

7 WHAT IS THE SKILLS STRATEGY FRAMEWORK? 13 Applying the Skills Strategy Contributes to economic prosperity Contributes to social cohesion 7

8 The OECD Skills Strategy Dashboard Note: These summary indicators are calculated as a simple average of a range of underlying indicators. All underlying indicators have been normalised in a way which implies that a higher value and being among the top 2% reflects better performance. "x" indicates insufficient available data for underlying indicators 5 Priority areas for the project Discussion with Project Team Preliminary analysis Policy context Developing a learning culture Strengthening skills use in workplaces Improving skills matches Strengthening skills governance and structures Improving the financing of education and training 8

9 PRIORITY 1: DEVELOPING A LEARNING CULTURE 17 Japan Finland Netherlands New Zealand Australia Sweden Norway Estonia Czech Republic Slovak Republic Canada England (UK) Korea Denmark Germany United States Austria N. Ireland (UK) OECD average Poland Ireland France Slovenia Greece Spain Italy Turkey Chile Adults exhibit an above average performance in most comparative cognitive skills measures Mean proficiency scores in literacy and numeracy, and the % scoring at Level 2 or 3 in problem solving in technology-rich environments, year-olds A. Literacy, mean score Japan Finland Netherlands Sweden Norway Denmark Slovak Republic Czech Republic Austria Estonia Germany New Zealand Australia Canada Korea OECD average England (UK) Poland N. Ireland (UK) Slovenia Ireland France United States Greece Italy Spain Turkey Chile B. Numeracy, mean score New Zealand Sweden Finland Netherlands Norway Denmark Australia Canada Germany England (UK) Japan Czech Republic Austria United States OECD average Korea N. Ireland (UK) Estonia Slovak Republic Slovenia Ireland Poland Chile Greece Turkey C. Problem solving, % level 2 or Source: OECD (216), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, Figure

10 does face some challenges with respect to the socio-demographic distribution of skills Score-points 6 Socio-demographic adjusted differences in literacy OECD average Age ( ) Immigrant (native - foreign) Education (Tertiary - lower than upper sec). Source: OECD (216), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills, Figure Parents' Education (tertiary parents - less than upper sec. parents) But the effect of parents educational level appears to decrease in Disparities in literacy between individuals with and without tertiary educated parents in PISA 2 and PIAAC year-olds Standardised gap,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 PISA 15 year-olds PIAAC year-olds Note: The standardised gap refers to the difference in the mean scores of individuals with at least one parent educated at the tertiary level and individuals without tertiary educated level parents divided by the average standard deviation of countries participating in the study in a particular education. Countries are ranked in descending order of the gap in PISA 2. Bars and diamonds highlighted in dark represent groups for which the gap is statistically significant at the 5% level. * Next to the country name denotes PIAAC round 2 countries for which PISA 23 data were used to identify performance at age 15. Source: Borgonovi, F. et al. (217), Youth in Transition: How Do Some of The Cohorts Participating in PISA Fare in PIAAC?, OECD Education Working Papers, No. 155, OECD Publishing, Paris. 1

11 And large share of the workforce is vulnerable to automation Proportion of workforce using general cognitive skills at or below level of computer capabilities, historical and projected 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Computer capabilities in 216 Additional capabilities projected for 226 Source: Elliott, S. (217), Computers and the future of skill demand, OECD Publishing. Creating a culture of lifelong learning is becoming increasingly important A culture of lifelong learning could: Help adults to upskill and reskill to meet changes in skills demand Raise productivity, innovation, and economic growth Help to reduce socioeconomic differences Improve social cohesion, health, and civic participation 11

12 But participation in adult education could be expanded % Participation in adult education, year-olds, by type, 212/ Participation in non-formal education only Participation in formal education only Participation in both formal and non-formal education Source: OECD Survey of Adult Skills database (PIAAC) (212, 15). Low-skilled adults are much less likely to participate in formal and non-formal learning Participation gap in formal and non-formal learning for job-related reasons, Percentage of high-skilled and low-skilled adults Percentage points non-formal learning for job-related reasons formal education Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (217), OECD Survey of Adult Skills database (PIAAC) (212, 215), OECD, Paris, (accessed March 217). 12

13 Flemish adults are comparatively unwilling to participate and face severe obstacles Not willing to participate in formal and/or non-formal education, % of year-olds, 212/215 % Participated, but does not want to participate (more) Did not participate, and does not want to participate Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (217), OECD Survey of Adult Skills database (PIAAC) (212, 215), OECD, Paris, (accessed March 217). PRIORITY 2: IMPROVING SKILLS MATCHES 26 13

14 Flemish workers are comparatively well-matched in education and skills level, but not in field-of-study A. Qualification mismatch Over-qualified Under-qualified New Zealand France Ireland England (UK) Australia Canada Sweden Japan Estonia N. Ireland (UK) Italy Austria Norway OECD average Germany Greece Chile Netherlands United States Korea Spain Finland Czech Republic Denmark Poland Turkey Slovenia Slovak Republic Mismatch, by type of mismatch As a percentage of all employment Greece Chile Ireland Spain Austria Czech Republic Italy Slovak Republic Germany Turkey OECD average New Zealand Norway England (UK) Japan United States Korea Slovenia Australia Denmark Estonia Sweden France Canada Finland Poland Netherlands N. Ireland (UK) B. Literacy mismatch Over-skilled Under-skilled Korea Chile Italy N. Ireland (UK) Japan United States Spain Turkey Greece Poland OECD average Czech Republic Slovak Republic Canada Estonia Denmark Netherlands Sweden Norway Slovenia Austria Germany Finland C. Field of study mismatch Source: OECD calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 212. has labour shortages in technical occupations, and enrolment in STEM-studies is lagging behind % 5 A. Graduates in upper secondary engineering, manufacturing and construction programs % of graduates in upper secondary, B. Graduates STEM studies in tertiary education per 1 of population aged 2-29, Source: OECD (217), Education at a Glance, Table A2.1. Profile of upper secondary graduates from general and vocational programmes (215). Eurostat, Education administrative data; STEM Monitor

15 And despite labour shortages, many adults are still outside of the labour market Long-term unemployment, NEETs, and inactivity rate, 216 A. Long-term unemployment B. NEETs, year-olds Brussels Brussels Wallonia Wallonia France France Netherlands EU average Luxembourg Germany Denmark Luxembourg Austria Austria OECD average Germany Denmark Sweden Sweden Netherlands % of unemployed % C. Inactivity rate Wallonia France Luxembourg European Union Brussels Austria Sweden Denmark Switzerland 2 4 % of population Source: OECD (217), Long-term unemployment rate (indicator). doi: /76471ad5-en; Eurostat (218) Regional statistics PRIORITY 3: STRENGTHENING SKILLS USE IN WORKPLACES 3 15

16 Skills are not used to their full potential in the workplace Use of numeracy skills and numeracy proficiency Skills-use indicator 2,6 2,55 2,5 2,45 2,4 2,35 2,3 Use of numeracy skills at work (left) Numeracy proficiency (average score) (right) Proficiency score Note: Skills use indicators are between 1 "Never" and 5 "Every day". Source: OECD Survey of Adult Skills database (PIAAC) (212, 15). But Flemish firms are adopting HPWP at a higher rate than their counterparts in most other countries % Share of jobs and index High performance work practices (HPWP) Percentage of jobs with high HPWP (left) Mean HPWP index (right) Index 3, 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 OECD (216a), OECD Employment Outlook 216, OECD Publishing, Paris, 16

17 Some task-based skills could be used more often by workers Workers' task-based skills, 212/215 OECD (PIAAC) Self-organisation skills ICT skills Managing and communication skills STEM skills Marketing and accounting skills,45,5,55,6 OECD (216a), OECD Employment Outlook 216, OECD Publishing, Paris, PRIORITY 4: STRENGTHENING SKILL GOVERNANCE AND STRUCTURES 34 17

18 The relevance of governance and partnerships for skills systems Education training and research Financing institutions Skills system stakeholders Employers and Unions Public Authorities Civil society Belgium is comparatively strong in engaging stakeholders when developing regulations Stakeholder engagement in developing regulations, 214 Methodology score: primary laws Oversight score: primary laws Systematic adoption score: primary laws Transparency score: primary laws Total score: subordinate regulations 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 Source: OECD (217), Government at a Glance 217, Figure 1.7 and 8.1. Stakeholder engagement in developing regulations,

19 Governance in Belgium can be improved Executive capacity, SGI-score, 217 Belgium OECD average Interministerial Coordination Implementation Adaptability Strategic Capacity Societal Consultation Policy Communication Organizational Reform Evidence-based Instruments Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (218), Sustainable Governance Indicators (SGI), PRIORITY 5: IMPROVING THE FINANCING OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING 38 19

20 implemented several financial incentives to promote adult learning Types of financial incentives for individuals and firms to support participation in adult learning Individual Opleidingscheques ('Training Vouchers') Loopbaancheques ('Career Guidance Vouchers') Individuele Beroepsopleiding (IBO) ('Individual vocational training') Firms KMO-portefeuille ('SME Portfolio') Strategische Transformatiesteun ('Strategic Transformation Support') Actieplan Werkbaar Werk ('Workable Work') Exemptions or no entrance fees for adult education Employers cover a relatively large share of expenditures, but especially for the high skilled % of employees receiving employer financial support for education or training, by skills level, year-olds 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% low skilled high skilled Source: OECD Survey of Adult Skills database (PIAAC) (212, 15). 2

21 The cost of adult education is rarely a reason to not participate Reasons for not participating, 212/215 OECD average Too busy at work Childcare, family responsibilities Inconvenient time or place Other Lack of employer s support Too expensive Something unexpected came up Did not have the prerequisites % 4 Source: OECD (217), Education at a Glance, Table C6.3a. Questions? <<From Pigeon hole>> 21

22 For more information To discuss OECD s work with countries on National Skills Strategy projects contact: To learn more about the OECD s work on skills visit: 22

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