Institutions of South- South Cooperation? the BRICS bank and shifts in multilateral finance

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1 Institutions of South- South Cooperation? the BRICS bank and shifts in multilateral finance

2 little/no progress with global governance: top-down failures in economics, politics, environment Montreal Protocol on CFCs, 1987 but since then: Kyoto Protocol 1997 and aftermath Copenhagen Accord 2009: climate disaster World Bank, IMF Annual Meetings: trivial reforms - China rising, Africa falling Post-Washington Consensus: rhetoric since 1998 UN Millennium Development Goals, 2000 (SDGs 2015-) World Trade Organisation Doha Agenda 2001: failure Monterrery Financing for Development Conference in 2002 and G20 global financial reregulation G8 promises on aid, NEPAD/APRM, Gleneagles: broken renewed wars: S.Asia, Middle East, North Africa, 2001-? UN Security Council reform 2005: no chance

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4 finance delinks from world's real economy: market value of financial assets and aggregate global GDP at current prices (billion US$) Source : Leda Paulani, USP with McKinsey Global Report data fin.assets GDP 4

5 wealthy governments' debt reached (political) ceiling vast increase mainly reflects bailout of US and European banks in late 2008

6 'temporal fixes': derivatives, 'Quantitative Easing' Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2010

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8 uneven development and capitalist crisis: current stage of financial destruction

9 in context of global crises, enter BRICS a new global economic geography has been born President Lula da Silva, BRICS Brasilia Summit, 2010 SOUTH AFRICA

10 A view from Durban: BRICS, March 2013 International Convention Centre cooperation: sub-imperialist capital accumulation

11 Manmohan Singh Xi Jinping Jacob Zuma Dilma Rousseff Vladimir Putin

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14 Some lessons from this morning James Mittelman: US sees BRICS as opportunity to legitimise capitalism question exactly what is rising in poli-econ terms avoid failure of analytical nerve (typical of think tanks ) Achin Vanaik: Asian IMF voting power rose but no genuine change Asian Monetary Fund and Chiang Mai Initiative complement the IMF (still EU-run) World Bank presidency grabbed by US in 2012 (with China rep heading IFC and Indian as chief economist) Neera Chandhoke: redistributive justice insufficiently normative poverty debate => need to revive cross-border solidarity need to appreciate agency of poor people s movements

15 reminders of civilised and uncivilised society, circa 2005 Johannesburg-based GCAP, known primarily for advocating white headband fashion, offered first newsletter (14/6/05), a 3,600-word report-back on campaigning across the world ignored organic anti-poverty activism in the Global South: labour strikes, popular mobilizations for AIDS treatment and other health services, reconnections of water/electricity, land and housing occupations, anti-gmo and pro-food security campaigns, women s organizing, municipal budget campaigns, student and youth movements, community resistance to displacements caused by dam construction and the like, anti-debt and reparations movements, environmental justice struggles, immigrants rights campaigns, political movements to take state power, etcetera two decades of unrest went unnoticed: 1980s 90s IMF riots, highprofile indigenous people s protests after Zapatismo in 1994, global justice activism since Seattle in 1999, the Social Forum movement since 2001, anti-war demos since 2001, autonomist protests and the Latin American left s revival

16 in the same spirit: Brazil, SA and Russia supported different WB candidates BRICS funded 2012 $75 billion IMF recapitalisation China IMF voting share increases so Africa s decreases Bank of the South (already $12 bn in capital) ignored, though it is more profound development finance challenge China s financing of (world-destabilising) US trade deficit through T-bills seem likely to continue South Africa explicitly supports financial liberalisation DBSA self-confessed shoddy, dropping eco-social concerns BNDES exceptionally destructive as BRICS Bank precedent Chinese lending in Africa oriented to extractivism all BRICS worsening on eco-social crises and repression climate finance (and climate management) examples BRICS commissioned 2 WB Chief Economists: legitimation

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18 Stern/Stiglitz: A new institution is required to ensure a better allocation of hardearned savings of developing and emerging economies away from risky portfolios, much of which is in rich countries, and onto sound investments in the developing and emerging world. Low-carbon infrastructure and technologies, in particular, are crucial to lay different and more resilient foundations for growth in the next decades. Investments are urgently required to both mitigate the risks and adapt to climate change, generate economic growth, reduce poverty and promote stability and security. These are the great challenges of the 21 st century. Failure on one is likely to imply failure on the others. Developing and emerging countries are in the position to both lead on the efforts to rebalance savings and investments and to make significant progress in creating the infrastructure for a different type of economic growth

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20 against slavery, colonialism, neocolonialism, neoliberalism?

21 or within?

22 South Africa as BRICS most aggressive proponent of financial liberalisation South Africa aligns itself with different groups to ensure that decisions on key issues reflect our country s best interest. With regard to quota and voice reform in the IMF, for example, South Africa is mostly aligned with emerging-market economies. However, with regard to the financial transactions tax that was mooted by the Europeans, South Africa opposed this proposal and was supported by a few other advanced economies. South Africa is aligned with advanced economies on the issue of climate finance, while other developing countries generally feel that this issue is best addressed at the United Nations.

23 SA corporates extraction, retailbased deindustrialisation, NEPAD/APRM, land-grabbing, neocolonial infrastructure, Bilateral Investment Treaties

24 country risk Economist Intelligence Unit 2010

25 Development Bank of Southern Africa China Development Bank Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES) Russia s Vnesheconombank Export-Import Bank of India SADC deputy executive secretary João Samuel Caholo: There is resentment towards the DBSA in certain quarters because it is in South Africa, and South Africa is the only shareholder. SADC has no say in what the DBSA does and although the bank does work on a bilateral level with SADC countries, we need our own bank. (June 2012) DBSA CEO Patrick Dlamini reporting on R370 mn loss in 2012: We can no longer allow the DBSA to be associated with shoddy work (December 2012) country risk Economist Intelligence Unit 2010

26 South Africa s agenda for BRICS: Gateway to Africa or scrambled Africa: Durban 2013 = Berlin 1885?

27 Berlin, Scramble for Africa

28 Britain, France, Belgium, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Spain

29 We must find new lands from which we can easily obtain raw materials and at the same time exploit the cheap slave labour that is available from the natives of the colonies. The colonies would also provide a dumping ground for the surplus goods produced in our factories. - Cecil John Rhodes

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31 useful Africa Source: Le Monde Diplomatique, Feb 2011

32 Useful Africa Source: Le Monde Diplomatique, Feb 2011 known minerals in Africa, 2008

33 Africa s existing oil substantial reserves oil and wars: Sudan, Angola, Chad, Congo US imports more than 20% from Africa PS0301-Da.jpg (credit: Horace Campbell)

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35 land-grabbed Africa by voracious India, China, South Africa (and Brazil) Source: Tomaso Ferrando

36 Africa Rising? (# of citations)

37 no, Africa protests Rising Agence France Press:

38 Africa food protests (and prices) rising

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42 (denied by African National Congress) Didier Pereira, a special adviser to ousted Central African Republic President Francois Bozize, partnered with ANC hard man Joshua Nxumalo and the ANC s funding arm, Chancellor House, to secure a diamond export monopoly in the CAR. Pereira is currently partnered to the ANC security supremo and fundraiser, Paul Langa, and former spy chief Billy Masetlha.

43 but isn t it time to correct GDP bias? what s missing? resource depletion air, water, and noise pollution loss of farmland and wetlands unpaid women s/community work family breakdown, crime other social values world GDP,

44 new measurements: post GDP world GDP, Genuine Progress Indicator

45 Africa Rising reality check from WB

46 World Bank (minimalist) adjustments for genuine savings fixed capital (-) education (+) pollution (-) natural resource depletion (-)

47 some examples of NCA, from The Changing Wealth of Nations Zambia, 2007

48 South Africa s natural capital accounts a first cut in the World Bank s Changing Wealth of Nations (2011) substantial subsoil assets within natural capital ($/capita) depletion of subsoil (mineral) assets = 9% of income net decline in SA s per person wealth: $245

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52 multinational corporate profits as a percentage of firm equity extractive industries Source: UN Conference on Trade and Development (2007), World Investment Report 2007, Geneva.

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54 Africa s mining production by country, South Africa Botswana Zambia Ghana Namibia Angola Mali Guinea Mauritania 20 Tanzania 20 Zimbabwe 20 Platinum Group Metals

55 platinum under Marikana South Africa s Resource Curse Mgcineni Noki, platinum rock drill operator 16 August 2012

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57 Copenhagen Accord, COP 15, December 2009 Jacob Zuma (SA) Lula da Silva (Brazil) Barack Obama (USA) Wen Jiabao (China) Manmohan Singh (India)

58 Durban COP17: Africa s Climate Summit confirmed 21 st -c. climate-related deaths of 180 million Africans (Christian Aid)

59 carbon trading strategy: in 1997, US vice-president Al Gore (later a carbon trader) pushed for Kyoto to include emissions markets, in exchange for Washington s promised support promise soon broken The European Union has adopted this US innovation and is making it work effectively there. ( 252 p. (An Inconvenient Truth,

60 emissions market crashes, VAT fraud, 2010 resale fraud, 2011 theft-closure does EU carbon trading work effectively? impossible to finance renewable energy with such low carbon prices

61 impossible to finance renewable energy with such low carbon prices

62 transforming fossil-addicted systems and paying for adaptation and loss & damage: Green Climate Fund $100bn/year by 2020 promised by Hillary Clinton at Copenhagen but not available during current fiscal crisis $100 billion not enough (Hurricane Sandy cost NY $60bn) who benefits? existing power elite and aid industry not poor climate victims corporate 'False Solutions' to be funded carbon trade to provide 50% of GCF revenue? (according to designers Nick Stern and Trevor Manuel)

63 what is subimperialism? Ruy Mauro Marini (Brazil 1965): It is not a question of passively accepting North American power (although the actual correlation of forces often leads to that result), but rather of collaborating actively with imperialist expansion, assuming in this expansion the position of a key nation.

64 Paris Yeros and Sam Moyo on BRICS subimperialisms: Some are driven by private blocs of capital with strong state support (Brazil, India); others, like China, include the direct participation of state-owned enterprises; while in the case of South Africa, it is increasingly difficult to speak of an autonomous domestic bourgeoisie, given the extreme degree of denationalisation of its economy, post-apartheid. The degree of participation in the Western military project is also different from one case to the next although, one might say, there is a schizophrenia to all this, typical of subimperialism.

65 subimperialism seen from SA open advocacy and practice of neoliberalism in local economic policy terms ( There Is No Alternative ), albeit sometimes with a tokenistic welfarist component to diminish the socio-political insecurity that results from state-services shrinkage; service as a regional platform for accumulation drawn from hinterland neighbours; legitimation of the Washington Consensus ideology and its multilateral institutions (most recently with respect to recapitalization of the International Monetary Fund), playing the deputy sheriff function in regional geopolitical terms; and engaging in confusing (and often confused) talk left, walk right moves in foreign policy so that critique of the West accompanies practical conciliation with the overall reproduction of world power.

66 Durban s hosting of BRICS, March 2013 International Convention Centre brics-from-below alternative (@ Diakonia)

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68 25-26 March 2013, Durban BRICS bank workshop

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73 350.org meets Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance & SA anti-coal activists poli-econ seminar with Paez halt violence against women climate skype-in with Bill McKibben panel on Chinese contradictions

74 panel on land-grabs, agriculture and water watchdogging of BRICS Development Bank

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79 brics-from-below at Occupy site

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