Latin America and China:

Transcription

1 Latin America and China: South-South relations in a new era Barbara Hogenboom, Centre for Latin American Research and Documentation (CEDLA), Amsterdam Seminar China s s strategies in Latin America,, Oslo, 16 March Chinaphobia - a Northern disorder? The insatiable giant Cometh the dragon China conquers the world After Africa s s economic colonization by China, it is South-America America s s turn 2

2 Chinese acquisitions China buys up the world And the world should stay open for business The Economist, Nov 11th The Big China Quiz 1) Who has the highest external FDI stock(2008)? a) China; b) Brazil; ; c) Netherlands 2) Compared to Japan s,, is China s external FDI: a) 10 x as small; ; b) the same; ; c) 10 x as big 3) What is the size of China s external FDI compared to Shell s foreign assets? a) The same; ; b) about 1/3; c) about 1/10 4

3 The Big China in LA Quiz 1) Which country is Brazil s s no. 1 export destination? a) Argentina; b) USA; c) China 2) And Venezuela s? a) Brazil; b) USA; c) China 3) Which country has a Free Trade Agreement with China? a) Chile; b) Peru; c) Costa Rica 5 Latin America Facing China: South-South Relations beyond the Washington Consensus Aim of the book: an assessment of the economic and political effects of China s s insertion in the global economy on Latin American countries, from a more Southern perspective. 6

4 A difficulty when studying the relations of LA with China is the high degree of ideologization of the debate about China s s rapid rise. US and European authors are usually very critical about the effects, while neglecting the role of our MNCs,, consumption patterns and model for globalized production in the globalization of China. The relations of China with developing countries are often presented as a new form of economic imperialism: a reprimarization of African and Latin American economies. 7 Changing power relations in the world economy Western economies will be outrun by the BRICS: Brazil, Russia,, India, China and South Africa. In 2040? 2030? 8

5 Possibilities and obstacles for Latin America s s development China s s spectacular growth contrasts with LA s low and volatile growth: What is the nature of the relations between LA and China? Are the interests of LA coinciding with those of the largest developing country? And how is China s s rise affecting the development debate in Latin America? 9 Trade: : Chinese demand for LA energy, minerals, agro-products versus Chinese competition in manufactures Source: The China Analyst, August 2010 (The Beijing Axis) 10

6 Source: The China Analyst, August 2010 (The Beijing Axis) 11 Investment issue in mid-2000s: Chinese competition for global investments Regional distribution of IFDI (US$ billions) Latin America and the Caribbean China /97*

7 Investment issue now: China as source of investment Source: The China Analyst, August 2010 (The Beijing Axis) 13 Variety of new China-LA relations, but economic interests prevail: Chile: complementary economies and FTA Brazil: strategic alliance and co-investments as well as concerns about commodities-for for- manufactures exchange ( enclave( enclave economy) Venezuela: (limited) oil for credit Central America: weak relations with PRC Mexico: competition and resistance 14

8 China effects on LA s development Competition in manufacturing and again more dependency on primary commodity exports Risk of widening gap between South America and the rest (economically, politically) 15 But also: Higher prices of metals and hydrocarbons More exports, growth and public sector revenues New source of FDI Less economic dependency on US and EU 16

9 Linked to wider rise of the South New South-South relations: pragmatic and effective Rules for the global economy can no longer be set without BRIC consent: WTO, IMF, G20 17 Latin America s s development debate Why has China s s economic liberalization process been successful, and Latin America s s has not? Competitiveness in global markets The role of the state The role of the private sector 18

10 Recent trends With the leftist governments in Latin America, the state is granted an important role in the economy again. This shift does not imply an end to capitalism and open market policies, but it is supportive for growth with equity and for regional integration. Processing of commodities in Latin America: Is China willing to become a partner? 19