Elections and Peace. Myanmar Conference Report. Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Diverse Societies PRIO

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1 Independent International Interdisciplinary PRIO Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) PO Box 9229 Grønland, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 7 Myanmar Conference Report Elections and Peace Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Diverse Societies A conference organized by Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Myanmar Peace Center September 2013, Yangon, Myanmar Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

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3 Myanmar Conference Report Elections and Peace Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Diverse Societies A conference organized by Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Myanmar Peace Center September 2013, Yangon, Myanmar Marte Nilsen (PRIO) Stein Tønnesson (PRIO)

4 2 Elections and Peace Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Hausmanns gate 7 PO Box 9229 Oslo NO-0134 Oslo, Norway Tel PRIO encourages its researchers and research affiliates to publish their work in peerreviewed journals and book series, as well as in PRIO s own Report, Paper and Policy Brief series. In editing these series, we undertake a basic quality control, but PRIO does not as such have any view on political issues. We encourage our researchers actively to take part in public debates and give them full freedom of opinion. The responsibility and honour for the hypotheses, theories, findings and views expressed in our publications thus rests with the authors themselves. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), 2013 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced. Stored in a retrieval system or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). Cover design: Cover Photos: Myanmar Peace Center Photos: Myanmar Peace Center

5 Elections and Peace 3 Contents 1. Conference Report Executive Summary Introduction The conference Day One: English language presentations Day Two: Burmese language discussions Conclusions Conference Program Titles and Abstracts Lessons from Myanmar s 2010 Elections and Implications for Kachin and Rakhine State Census Undertaking in Ethnic Diverse Settings Designing Electoral Systems - Majoritarian or Proportional? From Integration to Supremacy? Post-conflict Elections in Aceh, Indonesia, and Their Impact on the Peace Process Mainstreaming Social Movements into Political Parties in Post-Conflict Societies: The Experience of the MNLF and Lessons for MILF in Mindanao Votes and Violence How to Win Elections in Indonesia? Insights from the Campaigns for Governor of Jakarta Group Discussions(Burmese) 23

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7 Elections and Peace 5 1. Conference Report 1.1. Executive Summary A solid ethnic minority representation in the parliaments (hluttaw) in Myanmar after the 2015 general elections both on the Union level and the level of States and Regions is most likely a precondition for settling the country s long-lasting armed conflicts and achieving lasting peace. However, Myanmar is unlikely to change its first-past-the-post electoral system in time to ensure a more proportionate political representation. This means there is a risk that one or a few big parties will dominate the country s political institutions. A deliberative process among the many ethnic minority parties has begun, however, with a view to establish various forms of electoral cooperation. Stakes will be high in the 2015 elections since they in all likelihood will lead to significant political change. While preparing for the elections, the government will be wise to engage ethnic minority groups in a political dialogue about federalism and/or decentralisation of Myanmar s unitary state, as evidence from India, Indonesia and other places indicates that decentralisation in itself and sometimes the creation of new political units may help prevent violence and thus support democratisation. Ethnic armed groups, on their part, should put their arms aside and allow civil society organisations and political parties to play the lead roles in defending ethnic minority interests beyond an eventual peace deal. The census to be carried out by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in 2014, on behalf of the Myanmar government, may play a part in various groups political calculations since it will include questions about ethnicity. The plans for the census remain little known among the population, who often do not trust the authorities and fear manipulation of results. There is an urgent need for a large scale information campaign to explain how a census is done, and to train the staff who will collect the information, in rule-based confidential practices. These were the main conclusions from a conference organized in Yangon September 2013 by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and the Myanmar Peace Center Introduction As Myanmar is preparing for its general elections in 2015, the country also faces a range of other challenging tasks. A number of political and economic reforms are underway and the first national census in 30 years will be carried out in 2014, the same year as Myanmar is set out to hold the ASEAN chairmanship. All this needs to be carried out in parallel with a difficult and fragile peace process aiming to secure a durable peace among the country s many ethnic groups

8 6 Elections and Peace and between the armed forces of the government (the Tatmadaw) and more than a dozen nonstate armed groups. Experiences from democratic transitions in other ethnically divided societies and conflict-torn countries indicate that there is a high risk of renewed violence and conflict in connection with open, unpredictable elections. To navigate among all of Myanmar s challenges in the next few years will be extremely demanding both for the various branches of the government and for the country s many political parties and civil society organizations. This is the reason why the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) has engaged itself in following the peace process and democratic transition in Myanmar through a sustained research effort. Part of this will consist in monitoring the relations between party politics and violence in the years leading up to PRIO initiated its cooperation with the newly established Myanmar Peace Center in autumn Together the two institutions organised a first conference on the question Can Political Reforms bring Peace to Myanmar? in Yangon October This was the first time in many decades that a conference held inside Myanmar could openly discuss sensitive issues regarding history, peace-building and ethnic minority concerns from a humanities and social science perspective. Vivid discussions among participants from the Myanmar political scene, including ethnic minority parties, civil society organisations and various religious groups, together with Burmese and international scholars, ensured that the conference became a timely and important contribution to Myanmar s current political dynamics. A follow-up workshop was held in Oslo, December 2012, entitled Myanmar s Political Opening: Its Impact on Ethnic Conflicts The conference The conference Elections and Peace: Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Diverse Societies held in Yangon September 2013, was the second conference organized by PRIO and Myanmar Peace Center. The central topics were the 2014 national census, the likely impact of various electoral systems, lessons from Myanmar s elections in 2010, and the correlation between elections and violence in other parts of the world. Many of the speakers drew on examples from other South Asian and Southeast Asian countries. Between 70 and 80 people took part over two days. Among the participants were a range of political parties, many of them ethnic minority parties, as well as civil society organisations from across the country and representatives from various religious communities and inter-faith groups. Social activists and politicians from Kachin, Shan, Mon, Kayin, Chin and Rakhine States had been specifically invited to ensure that voices from the ethnic states were heard. Present were also a

9 Elections and Peace 7 number of governmental institutions, including the Ministry of Immigration and Population, the Myanmar Election Commission and some of the State Ministries of Security and Border Affairs. A number of international NGOs, UN agencies, representatives from the Norwegian MFA and international scholars attended, as did many Myanmar journalists Day One: English language presentations The first day of the conference was conducted in English, with presentations by a number of invited scholars. The second day was conducted in the Myanmar language, with group discussions about key topics. After introductory addresses by Marte Nilsen and Stein Tønnesson (PRIO) and Kyaw Yin Hlaing (Myanmar Peace Center), Richard Horsey held a talk about the lessons from Myanmar s 2010 elections with a special focus on the challenges ahead in Kachin and Rakhine States. Political inclusion was a key concept in Horsey s presentation where he pointed out the dilemma that continued political marginalisation of Kachin political parties may lead to sustained violence, while political inclusion could in itself be a source of violence in Rakhine State. Horsey highlighted as potentially important measures reforms in the electoral system, cooperation and coordination between ethnic minority parties, and awareness of the potential risks of violence. After Horsey s talk Frederick Okwayo from the United Nation Population Fund (UNFPA) who is the Chief Technical advisor for Myanmar s Population and Housing Census in 2014 informed about the process of census-taking and clarified how the census will be carried out in Myanmar. His presentation engaged the audience strongly and Okwaya was confronted with a range of critical questions and remarks concerning ethnicity, Internationally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees and migrants. Another engaging presentation was held by Bernt Aardal from the University of Oslo about the pros and cons of various electoral systems. Aardal particularly highlighted the differences between a first-past-the-post system, like the one in Myanmar, and a system of proportional representation. Aardal emphasised that there is no one system that fits all, and that each country needs to develop the system best suited to its specific situation. However, he did point out that systems of proportional representation generally tend to secure a broader representation of minorities and women. Fewer wasted votes and a higher voter turnout are other benefits gained by such a

10 8 Elections and Peace system. The advantage with the other system is that it leads to more clear-cut results and more often establishes a clear parliamentary majority to sustain a chosen government. A discussion of whether or not proportional systems may favour extremism by securing representation and opportunity for marginal groups was debated with the audience, and it was pointed out that the inclusion of more extreme or radical parties can be a way to make such parties accountable instead of further marginalized. Gunnar Stange from the Goethe University in Frankfurt gave an assessment of how the peace process in Aceh, Indonesia, has impacted local politics. He discussed how the transformation of Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM) from an ethno-nationalist independence movement to the local political party, Partai Aceh, has affected ethnic politics since the peace agreement in Stange argued that while the conflict between the GAM and the Indonesian government has been successfully transformed from a predominantly violent mode of conflict regulation to a mode where conflict is largely regulated through institutionalized procedures, Aceh s power struggles, in the form of electoral competition, have been carried out mainly along ethnic boundaries. This has led to the re-emergence of long-standing inter-ethnic fault lines within the province and culminated in calls from Aceh s interior regions to secede from Aceh through the creation of new provinces. The transformation of ethnic minority armies into political parties and political actors is greatly relevant for the current peace process in Myanmar and effects of the Aceh experience provide important lessons for Myanmar s political transition. The transformation of ethnic rebel movements into political parties was also discussed by Julio Teehankee from De La Salle University in Manila who gave a comparison of the strategies of the two main Bangsamoro rebel groups in Mindanao in the Philippines. While the participation of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) in electoral politics and local governance in the 1990s was short-lived as the MNLF failed to institutionalize itself into a political party, there are hopes that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) will take a different approach and aim to mobilize support for a political party. Teehankee pointed to the MNLF s reliance on political patronage from the political elites in the Philippines for space to operate, and its failure to mobilize its own political support based on merit as its main strategic mistake. As soon as the Mindanao conflict did not make headlines anymore, the elites in Manila effectively ignored the deal they had made with the MNLF and the movement s local credibility in Mindanao eroded rapidly. Teehankee stressed the importance for the MILF to succeed in using the current window of opportunity that the peace process has opened up to build alliances with Civil Society Organisations and develop a political party with a political strategy of its own. These are lessons that may prove relevant to Myanmar s armed groups as well, when they aim to establish or facilitate the establishment of viable political parties.

11 Elections and Peace 9 Steven Wilkinson from Yale University, who has studied the relations between votes and violence in India and Pakistan, cited a number of lessons directly relevant for Myanmar. The most important was that federalism or decentralisation in itself can be a tool to prevent violence and conflict. In the 1950s India took the chance to federalise while Pakistan centralised. It was not clear at the time, but history has shown that the political system in India has been much more successful in accommodating various groups and reducing violence than the one in Pakistan. Another relevant lesson is that the creation of new and smaller states or other units, instead of just keeping a few large states, has helped deemphasise ethnic and religious cleavages. Wilkinson stressed that increased electoral competition may lead to less violence, particularly if the competition centres on issues that cut across ethnic cleavages. These are of course matters that are already being hotly discussed in Myanmar. In light of the severe communal conflicts in Rakhine State and anti-muslim riots in other parts of the country the audience also noticed Wilkinson s emphasis on the power of electoral violence. The fact that violence and riots can be effective tools to win votes must not be forgotten. But he also pointed out that effective police forces that are not controlled by local leaders can prevent riots from escalating. Vera Altmeyer from the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies drew attention away from the danger of violence and instead provided positive insights in a highly effective non-violent political campaign. She presented findings from her 2012 fieldwork during the campaign for the position of Governor in Jakarta, Indonesia. Her illustrative presentation of how the powerful incumbent Governor (Foke) lost to the competitor (Jokowi) revealed how new campaign strategies, where the campaigners interact with and meet with people face to face, outperformed the more traditional Indonesian strongman strategies. Jokowi s campaign also illustrates how ethnicity and religion can be dealt with in a sensitive way that does not ignore these factors but tactfully play on them in ways that do not reinforce ethnic cleavages, and that allow the main focus to be on crosscutting issues. Jokowi developed an inclusive approach towards the capital s many religious and ethnic identity groups and offered an alternative way of doing politics that may have a strong influence on the upcoming Indonesian presidential campaign and also inspire effective political campaigning in other countries. At the end of the first day of the conference Myanmar scholar and researcher from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) in Singapore, Tin Maung Maung Than, summarized the proceedings in English, and this summary was repeated the next morning in Burmese as an introduction to the second day of the conference. Tin Maung Maung Than s central message was for Myanmar to develop its own gold standard to strive for, while at the same time avoid thinking that it should to start from scratch: - We should rather build on what we have; the

12 10 Elections and Peace process will take time; no rapid change of technicalities or electoral reform can root out the distrust that imprints Myanmar politics; this must happen over time Day Two: Burmese language discussions The main objective of the second day was to discuss the following four questions: 1. How to secure minority representation in Region, State and Union assemblies; 2. Proportional representation vs. first-past-the-post systems; 3. How to empower State parliaments; 4. What makes political parties accountable? Six groups of approximately ten people each were put together in a way that secured a diverse composition, with representatives from various ethnic, social and political backgrounds and from different parts of Myanmar. Discussions were lively and participatory and each group presented its findings in the final plenary session. The following summary of the group discussions was translated into English by the Myanmar Peace Center. The Burmese language version is attached in part 4 of this report. Group (1) Discussions Regarding the question of How the capacities of state/region hluttaws shall be increased? : a) Inviting both local and international experts and organizing various respective committees, technical support should be provided to the hluttaws b) The Central Government should delegate its power more to governments in the states/ divisions and regions c) The capacities of the existing political parties should be promoted. d) The union government should allow more representation of the places where populations is minimal and focus its developmental issues e) The Hluttaw Supporting Office should exist separately f) The limitations (or weaknesses) in the budgeting in relation to states and divisions should be amended. g) The inexperience of some members of parliament should be remedied

13 Elections and Peace 11 Regarding the pros and cons of the proportional representation and winner takes all approach: a) The wasting of votes will be avoided if proportional representation is applied b) Chances of participation will increase c) It will support national reconciliation d) A distinction between policy and individual will be seen separately e) With the winner-takes-all approach, the participation of ethnic minorities will be decreased f) The danger of religious extremism might be possible g) Differences in views among party members regarding representation might increase Group (2) Discussions With respect to the question of how the ethnic minority representation in the Hluttaws will be protected: a) Since the number of ethnic minorities delegates is still lower in Amyothar Hluttaw, that numbers should be increased to the same ratio of majority representation Regarding the pros and cons of the approaches of proportional representation and winner- takesall: a) Although proportional representation seems good, the people in Myanmar are politically inexperienced and thus, that system is not apt for practical application. Therefore, winnertakes-all approach should be applied even in 2015 elections. In relation to the question of how to empower state/division parliaments: a) Legislative power of the state/region hluttaws should be increased b) The degree of centralization should be decreased Regarding the question of what makes political parties accountable: a) Political parties should be allowed to participate more in the politics b) Political parties should fulfil the promises they have made to the people they represent Group (3) Discussions When it came to the question of how to secure minority representation in Regions, States and Union Assemblies: a) Equal representation should be in the Amyothar Hluttaw b) The Amyothar Hluttaw should be given more decision-making power c) Regions and States Hluttaws power should be increased d) Whether the role of Pyihtaungsu Hluttaw is required should be frequently evaluated e) With proportional representation method, the participation of ethnic minority should be encouraged Regarding the pros and cons of proportional representation and winner-takes-all: a) The long term application of proportional representation should be considered b) The application of that system in the Amyothar Hluttaw should be considered c) In order to provide more opportunity to ethnic minorities to participate, the representation ratio of powerful parties should be restricted

14 12 Elections and Peace With respect to the question of how to empower the State/Region parliaments: a) As for the legislation for the States and Regions, the Amyothar Hluttaw and State and Region hluttaws should take care of them Group (4) Discussions When it came to the question of how to secure minority representation in Region, State and Union Assemblies: a) In the ethnic minority regions, the right to organize political party and the right to be elected individually should be promoted. b) The violations of the rights of ethnic minorities under various reasons should be stopped c) Some of the rules of the Union Election Commission should be amended d) The creation of sub-parties under the influences of big parties and the cheating of the general public by this method should be prohibited. e) Regarding the members of parliament who have not been elected by ethnic minorities (or) the members of parliament who cannot be able to protect the interests of ethnic minorities, objection to their representation should be raised f) Giving the security reason, constituencies in ethnic minority regions should not be cancelled despite the existence of enough safety g) The state should provide support in order to give birth competent electoral candidates in ethnic minority regions The Pros and Cons of proportional representation and winner-takes-all methods: a) The 2008 Constitution must be amended b) The parliament must consist of elected members only c) The right to recall should be properly carried out if members are found incompetent or unable to carry out projects for the interests of their constituencies. d) Laws and rules relating to the rights of ethnic minorities should be enacted. When it came to the question of what makes political parties accountable: a) Members of parliament should not practice sectarianism aiming prosperity for themselves and their parties b) MPs must be accountable if they or their parties made mistakes and they should accept if their mistakes are remedied c) There should be oversight committees or organizations to supervise parties policies and conducts of their members d) Reforms should be carried out based on the current world politics and situations e) The capacities of party members should always be watched over f) When candidates are chosen, parties should take care of not choosing the unscrupulous candidates from their parties reviewing their moral characters and capabilities Group (5) Discussions The pros and cons of proportional representation and winner-takes-all methods: a) It would be more advantages if both methods are going to be tested in 2015 elections b) If these two methods are used concurrently, the representation of ethnic minority will become stronger and the all-inclusive parliamentary system will emerge

15 Elections and Peace 13 Regarding the question of how to empower the State/Region Parliaments: a) Delegates from states and regions should be elected by the general public and the Prime Minister should be chosen by the States and Regions Hluttaws b) Regional Prime Minister must have full decision-making power c) Giving a thought on power sharing profoundly can increase the capacities of State/Region Hluttaws When it came to the question of what makes political parties accountable: a) Members of parliament should keep their promises and fulfill them b) In touch with media and news agencies, MPs should clearly inform the general public about their activities Group (6) Discussions In relation to the question of how to secure minority representation in Regions, States and Union Assemblies: a) More free and fair elections should emerge throughout the whole country b) Members of parliaments coming from various parties must genuinely represent the people in their constituencies c) For the sake of ethnic minorities, ministers in charge of minority affairs should be appointed d) Those ministers should coordinate and cooperate with members of parliaments from ethnic minority regions regarding the issues of those areas e) If ethnicity and religion is considered seriously and taken in the forefront of any issue, no political solution will be achieved. Therefore, minorities also should take care of not putting much emphasis on the roles of religion and ethnicity

16 14 Elections and Peace 1.6. Conclusions The presentations and discussions on the first day of the conference and the results of the group discussions on the second day allow us as conference organizers to draw six main conclusions: A high degree of political representation of the country s various ethnic groups after the 2015 elections is a likely precondition for lasting peace. This applies both at the Union and Region/State level. Only a level of political representation that allows ethnic leaders to fight for their aims with non-violent means may permit a gradual demobilization of armed ethnic groups. Such demobilization cannot in all places be made to happen before the elections, and the government must not make demobilization of armed ethnic groups a precondition for allowing certain ethnic parties to take part in the elections. On the other hand, the armed ethnic groups must commit themselves to desist from any use of force during the elections. There is little chance that Myanmar will change its first-past-the-post electoral system before the 2015 elections, not least because no such change has yet been formally proposed in the Union parliament (although some politicians have shown an interest in a mixed system of the German kind). Although many political parties and civil society organizations might benefit from a more proportional system, they generally feel that there is too little time left to agree on an electoral reform. What is not perhaps taken much into consideration is that a first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to create a parliamentary majority with a vested interest in retaining the same system in the next elections as well. Hence there is a strong chance that the electoral system may remain the same also in 2020 even if the losers of the 2015 elections call out for reform. A political process is already ongoing among various ethnic minority parties with a view to establish various forms of cooperation and common political strategies prior to the 2015 elections. If ethnic political parties wish to obtain representation also from districts that are not totally dominated by their own ethnic group, they need to develop robust coalitions, back up each other s candidates, and also campaign on issues that may draw support from outside their own ethnic constituency. Conversely, the parties that draw the strongest support from the majority ethnic Bamar population will need to include ethnic questions in their political platforms and recruit respected candidates with non-bamar

17 Elections and Peace 15 backgrounds. Such political processes may lead to genuinely complex electoral politics with a potential for overcoming past cleavages and struggles. It is important that the government starts a political dialogue with ethnic minorities to address questions of federalism and/or decentralisation in parallel with the on-going democratisation process. Due to the unlevelled playing field caused by the controversial 2008 constitution, the holding of elections will not be enough to create peace with the ethnic minorities and their armed groups. As the case of India and Indonesia indicate, it is likely that federalism or decentralisation sometimes even the creation of new political units help prevent the resurgence of violence. Political peace talks that seek to find solutions for self-determination and autonomy in ethnic states are in other words likely to support democratisation and help avoid electoral violence. Ethnic armed groups, on their part, should under the present circumstances put their weapons aside and support organisations seeking to utilize the opportunities created by the opening up of the country s political system. A one-dimensional strategy pursuing a negotiated peace deal may backfire if the leaders of the armed groups isolate themselves and fail to build alliances with civil society organisations and political parties who can defend ethnic minority interests beyond an eventual peace deal. There is much concern in the population about the national census to be conducted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in March-April 2014 on behalf of the Myanmar government (with strong financial support i.e. from Norway). Such concerns are particularly strong among the ethnic minorities, who already know that the questionnaire to be used will include questions about ethnicity. People are generally not aware that the census will be kept completely distinct from voter registration and the issuing of identity papers. There is also in many ethnic areas a general distrust towards government agencies, and the approximately school teachers who will be recruited to visit households and collect the data are likely to be seen as government agents. There is thus an immediate need for more public information (also in ethnic languages) and for training the census-takers in how to carry out their interviews in a culture- and conflict-sensitive and completely confidential manner. While the Ministry of

18 16 Elections and Peace Immigration and Population and the UNFPA may already have formulated sound principles on paper, these are little known among the population. If a huge gap develops between theory and practice then this may exacerbate distrust in the government and generate more conflict between ethnic groups. Many residents with a mixed ethnic background will find it difficult to choose from among the ethnic categories listed in the questionnaire, and some aspects of the census results will be particularly controversial, i.e. the number/percentage of Bamar in the Union as a whole and in certain ethnic States; the number of Rakhine and other (Rohingya) in Rakhine State; the number/percentage of Kachin in Kachin State; and the number of Shan in Shan State (in view of the fact that so many Shan reside abroad and will thus not be counted unless they visit home in March- April when the census is made). There is an urgent need for a broad information campaign and a conscious strategy for how to carry out and explain the census both while it is being carried out in March-April 2014 and when the results are made known to the public in A failure on this score could contribute to worsening the ethno-political climate in the run-up to the 2015 elections (although the census is not of course used as a basis for voter registration). Marte Nilsen (PRIO) Stein Tønnesson (PRIO) Oslo, October 2013

19 Elections and Peace Conference Program Elections and Peace: Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Diverse Societies September 2013 at Myanmar Peace Centre, No.11, Shwe Li Street, U Wi Sa Ra Road, Kamaryut Township, Yangon 13 September Paper presentations in English language Registration and coffee Welcoming address by Marte Nilsen (PRIO), Stein Tønnesson (PRIO) and Kyaw Yin Hlaing (Myanmar Peace Centre) Lessons from Myanmar s 2010 Elections and Implications for Kachin and Rakhine State by Richard Horsey (Independent analyst) Coffee and refreshments Census Undertaking in Ethnic Diverse Settings by Fredrick Okwayo (United Nations Population Fund, UNFPA) Designing Electoral Systems - Majoritarian or Proportional? By Bernt Aardal (Institute of Social Research, Oslo) Lunch From Integration to Supremacy? Post-conflict Elections in Aceh, Indonesia, and Their Impact on the Peace Process" by Gunnar Stange (Goethe- University, Frankfurt) Mainstreaming Social Movements into Political Parties in Post-Conflict Societies: The MNLF Experience and Lessons for the MILF in Mindanao" by Julio Teehankee (De La Salle University, Manila) Coffee and refreshments Votes and Violence by Steven Wilkinson (Yale University) How to Win Elections in Indonesia? Insights from the Campaigns for Governor of Jakarta 2012 by Vera Altmeyer (Nordic Institute for Asian Studies, Copenhagen) Reflections on today s proceedings by Tin Maung Maung Than (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore)

20 18 Elections and Peace 14 September Conference proceedings in Myanmar language Summary from day one by Tin Maung Maung Than (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore) Group discussions - How to secure minority representation in Region, States and Union assemblies? - Proportional representation vs. winner takes all. - How to empower the State parliaments? - What makes political parties accountable? Lunch Plenary session with summaries of group discussions Discussions in plenary Summing up (PRIO/Myanmar Peace Centre) Coffee and refreshments - Informal discussions

21 Elections and Peace Titles and Abstracts Elections and Peace: Democratic Transitions in Ethnically Diverse Societies September 2013, Yangon, Myanmar 3.1. Lessons from Myanmar s 2010 Elections and Implications for Kachin and Rakhine State Richard Horsey (independent researcher) Myanmar s 2010 elections were far from free and fair. Aung San Suu Kyi remained under house arrest until after the elections, which were not contested by the NLD and subject to a boycott campaign by part of the opposition. There were widespread reports of fraudulent advance voting, and ballot stuffing in some constituencies. The USDP won a landslide. Nevertheless, the new government under President Thein Sein, and the legislatures under Thura U Shwe Mann and U Khin Aung Myint, embarked on a remarkably rapid and wide-ranging reform program. The next elections in 2015 will be a critical juncture for the country. Given the major reforms that have taken place, the conduct of the 2012 by-elections and consequent return to the political process of Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, it seems likely that the next polls will be broadly free and fair. The legislatures will thus come to be a more accurate reflection of party popularity, notwithstanding the distortions inherent in the first-past-the-post system. An NLD majority seems very likely. However, major questions remain about the post-2015 political landscape. If the constitution is not amended to allow Aung San Suu Kyi to be a presidential candidate (as is very possible), it is unclear who will get the post: Aung San Suu Kyi would control the presidential electoral college, and so would be king-maker, but her party does not have an obvious king. An elite pact whereby a senior member of the old guard becomes president, with Aung San Suu Kyi as Speaker, is one possible outcome. As well as bringing major changes to politics at the centre, the 2015 elections will also have a major impact on politics in the periphery. The peace process initiated by the current government has resulted in ceasefires with 11 of the 12 major ethnic armed groups and a preliminary agreement with the 12th group (the KIO). But the President s term has been marred by major fighting in Kachin State, and serious violence against Muslim communities in Rakhine State and elsewhere in the country. The paper provides an assessment of the possible impact of the 2015 polls on these two major areas of concern and discusses whether new politics can address old and deep-seated grievances and tensions Census Undertaking in Ethnic Diverse Settings Fredrick Okwayo - United Nations Population Fund UNFPA Country Technical Adviser This presentation outlines the role of censuses in development, peace process and national elections. Census is an opportunity that comes only once in every ten years; it involves visiting every households and institutions to obtain information. This involves 41 questions that cover sex, age, religion, ethnicity, disability, type of identity card held, migration, education, employment, children ever born to women, housing materials, some items owned by household members, deaths in the household and members who are in foreign country.

22 20 Elections and Peace The results are useful for effective future planning and policy and decision making, as well as research, including amongst vulnerable population groups. The last census in Myanmar took place in 1983, so in the case of Myanmar, 2014 census is a historic opportunity for supporting inclusiveness and participation. All persons will be counted and all households will take part and have a chance to contribute and share information that will be vital for all aspects of the country s future development, most notably in providing up to date and accurate data, which is urgently needed. The 2014 census therefore is the responsibility of everybody and through each person s involvement can make it a success. Under the circumstances, technical and institutional capacity building have been critical over the last year in the lead up to the enumeration exercise that will occur in immediately after census night, which is set for 29/30 March. Recently, a new census law was passed in Parliament. This provides for the census to take place in compliance with international standards, institutionalization of the process for census operations and the protection of the raw data contained in the completed questionnaires and emphasizes the need for everybody s participation Designing Electoral Systems - Majoritarian or Proportional? Bernt Aardal (Institute of Social Research, Oslo) This paper raises some of the key questions concerning electoral systems: What is an electoral system? Main dimensions of electoral systems, types of electoral systems and trends in electoral system change. What are the advantages and disadvantages of a majoritarian system and a system of proportional representation? How about a mixed system? What are the implications for ethnic minorities? 3.4. From Integration to Supremacy? Post-conflict Elections in Aceh, Indonesia, and Their Impact on the Peace Process Gunnar Stange (Goethe-University Frankfurt) On 15 August 2005, the Republic of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that put an end to Indonesia s thirty years of conflict in its westernmost province, Aceh. Eight years later, the peace process is still on track. After direct executive elections in 2006/2007, parliamentary elections in 2009, and direct executive elections in 2012, Aceh s governor and ten out of 23 district chief executives and mayors are former rebels. The Aceh Party the political vehicle of GAM that was established in early 2008 holds 33 out of 69 seats in Aceh s regional parliament and has the absolute majority of seats in seven district and municipal parliaments. Yet, GAM s transformation from an ethno-nationalist independence movement to a local political party came at a high price. Today, the movement - formerly considered to be very homogeneous is highly fractioned, both horizontally and vertically. However, during the campaign period in the run-up to Aceh s legislative elections held on April 2009, GAM managed to once more close its ranks tightly and led Partai Aceh to a landslide victory. In its first part, the paper will look into the shaky process of Partai Aceh s foundation that revealed deep rifts between GAM s former exile leadership and the so called young Turks and led to the movement s institutional fragmentation. In its second part, the paper attempts to identify patterns to explore the dynamics that finally made the Aceh Party the dominating political power in Aceh. The paper will conclude with some reflections on the paradox that albeit Aceh s peace agreement

23 Elections and Peace 21 was hailed a democratic bottom-up approach to conflict resolution opposed to the idea of implementing a top-down power sharing mechanism, the democratic electoral processes of the past years have, de facto, led to a highly controversial and exclusive single party rule by the Aceh Party Mainstreaming Social Movements into Political Parties in Post-Conflict Societies: The Experience of the MNLF and Lessons for MILF in Mindanao Julio Teehankee, De La Salle University, Manila For decades, a secessionist struggle for self-determination of the Bangsamoro people in Mindanao was waged; first by the Moro National Liberation (MNLF), then later, by its splinter faction, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). On September 1996, the Government of the Philippines entered into a Final Peace Agreement (FPA) with the MNLF. As an informal part of the agreement, Lakas, the ruling political party at that time, supported the election of MNLF founder Nur Misuari as Governor of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). But the MNLF s participation in electoral politics and local governance was short-lived as it failed to institutionalize itself into a political party. In October 7, 2012, the Government of the Philippines and the MILF signed a Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) that will serve as a roadmap towards its own FPA. Soon after, the MILF made known its intention to either convert itself into a political party or organize a new political party in order to contest the 2016 elections. Political parties play an important role in consolidating the gains of negotiated peace settlements. And as in the experience of the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN) in El Salvador, the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (RENAMO) in Mozambique, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) in Rwanda, and the Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM) in Aceh, Indonesia, some former armed movements have successfully transitioned into post-conflict political parties. Based on the Philippine experience in Mindanao with the MNLF and MILF, this presentation will delineate two major questions: First, what is the role of political parties in post-conflict transitional societies? Second, how can armed social movements transition into electoral and party politics? 3.6. Votes and Violence Steven I. Wilkinson (Yale University) Ethnic violence and ethnic appeals have often been employed as a tactic to win elections or, in authoritarian systems, to solidify political support and outflank opponents (Wilkinson, 2005). Comparative research has shown that ethnic violence is most likely in closely contested electoral races, especially in environments with a previous history of violence and where there is uncertainty about whether the state will intervene to prevent riots (Wilkinson, 2004; Biggs and Dhattiwalla, 2012). Violence is used because it works: the constituency vote share of majoritycommunity parties goes up substantially after Hindu-Muslim riots in India (Biggs and Dhattiwalla, 2012; Wilkinson 2013). The good news is that, in many places, we have also seen how changes in the patterns of political competition at the state and national level have, over time, increased the state s willingness to intervene to prevent violence at the local level. The key ingredient is whether political party competition among the majority community at the level of government that controls the most important forces of law and order (the 28 State governments, in India) becomes sufficiently intense so that minorities become sought after groups of voters. When electoral competition for

24 22 Elections and Peace minority voters increases in this way, as it did in the USA in the 1940s and has done in India more recently, this affects politicians willingness to try to incite ethnic conflicts as well as their seriousness about using the state to prevent it. And, over time, the state s increased willingness to intervene to prevent riots as well as prosecute racial incitement leads to a broader change in norms and values among the wider population in terms of whether they regard ethnic violence or any violence as legitimate. The race riots that worked as an electoral strategy to unify whites in Atlanta in 1906 or North Carolina in 1898 no longer work as a strategy today. In India too we are now seeing signs that politicians and parties involved in riots in the past are turning away from the tactic, from a diverse mix of motivations: fear that the tactic will lose votes among some segments of the electorate, fear that the tactic carries an increased risk of prosecution, and concerns that the taint of involvement in riots carries personal political career costs. This paper explores the lessons from these patterns, in India the USA and elsewhere. It also tries to consider how, in societies such as Myanmar, policy changes and changes to electoral and institutional incentives might be made to encourage politicians to prevent ethnic violence and reduce the incentives to appeal to ethnic wedge issues in order to win elections How to Win Elections in Indonesia? Insights from the Campaigns for Governor of Jakarta 2012 Vera Altmeyer (Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, Copenhagen) In this presentation I will argue that the success of Joko Widodo winning the election for Governor of Jakarta in 2012 was based on the framing of several key issues conveyed not only in his program, but also in his style of campaigning and style of governing more generally. Not least, this encompassed an inclusive approach towards the capital s many religious and ethnic identity groups. By doing so he offered an alternative way of doing politics, opposing the more traditional style of politicians like the eventually loosing incumbent Governor Fauzi Bowo. With this new approach Joko Widodo hit the nerve of a population that is tired of being treated as floating mass - the passive subjects of the state s agency - something which has not fundamentally changed with democratisation. More recently, his tremendous success positions him perfectly to take on an even higher challenge: the presidential election in This analysis is based on field work for my PhD thesis in Jakarta from May to October 2012 and in July/August 2013.

25 Elections and Peace Group Discussions(Burmese) ရ က က ပ မ င ႔ ႔ ၿင မ ခ မ ရ ည လ ခ A ရ င A သ စ တ င ရင သ Aဖ ႕Aစည မ ၾက Aစည မ ၾက ဒ မ က ရစ A ပ င Aလ မ Aခ န - န နက (၉) န ရ မ ည န (၆) န ရ (ပထမ န ပထမ န႔ ႔) န နက (၉) န ရ မ ည န (၃) န ရ (ဒ တ ယ န ဒ တ ယ န႔ ႔) န႔ ႔ရက - ၂၀၁၃ ခ စ စက တင ဘ လ (၁၃ ၁၃) ) / (၁၄ ( ၁၄) ရက နရ - မန မ င င ၿင မ ခ မ ရ ပန လည ထ ထ င ရ လ ပ ငန ဗဟ ဌ န ည လ ခ ပထမ န႔တ င သ သန ႔ င င ရ စ တ ဖ လ႔လ သ Richard Horsey က Lessons from Myanmar s 2010 Elections and Implications for Kachin and Rakhine State ခ င စU ဖင ႔ လည က င United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) မ Fredrick Okwayo က Census Undertaking in Ethnic Diverse Settings ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င Institute of Social Research (Oslo) မ Bernt Aardal က Designing Electoral Systems Majoritarian or Proportional ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င Goethe University/ Frankfurt မ Gunnar Stange က From Integration to Supermacy? Post-Conflict Elections in Aceh, Indonesia and Their Impact on the Peace Process ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င De La Salle University (Manila) မ Julio Teehankee က Mainstreaing Social Movements into Political Parties in Post-Conflict Societies: The MNLF Experience and Lessons for the MILF in Mindanao ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င Yale University မ Steven Wilkinson က Votes and Violence ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င Nordic Institute for Asian Studies (Copenhagen) မ Vera Altmeyer က How to win Elections in Indonesia? Insights from the Campaigns for Governor of Jakarta 2012 ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င င ႔ Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Singapore) မ U တင မ င မ င သန က Reflections on Today s Proceedings ခ င စU ဖင ႔လည က င ဆ ခ ႔သည ည လ ခ ဒ တ ယ န႔တ င U တင မ င မ င သန က ပထမ န႔ ဆ ခ က မ A ပန လည ၿခ င သ သပ ဆ ခ ႔ၿပ န က ည လ ခ တက ရ က လ သ မ A န ဖင ႔လည A ဖ ႕ (၆) ဖ ႕ခ A ပ စ ဖ ႕ ဆ ခင မ ဆ င ရ က ခ ႔ပ သည ဆ ခ က ပ ခ င စU မ မ - (၁) တ င ဒသ ပည နယ မ င ႔ ပည ထ င စ လ တ တ မ တ င တ င ရင သ လ နည စ မ စစ မ န သည က ယ စ ပ မ A မည သ ႔ စ င ႔ ရ က က က ယ မည နည (How to secure minority representation in Regions, States and Union Assemblies?) (၂) A ခ က က ယ စ ပ စနစ င ႔ A မ စ က ယ စ ပ စနစ (Proportional Representation Vs. Winner Takes All) (၃) ပည နယ လ တ တ မ A မည သ ႔ စ မ ဆ င ရည မ င ႔တင ရမည နည (How to Empower the State Parliaments?)

26 ႔ 24 Elections and Peace (၄) မည သည A ၾက င Aခ က မ က င င ရ ပ တ မ A တ ၀န ခ င စ မ မင ႔မ လ စရန A ထ က Aက ပ လ မ ႔မည နည (What makes Political Parties accountable?) A ပ စ (၁) ဆ ခ က မ စပ လ U - ပည နယ လ တ တ မ A မည သ ႔ ႔ စ မ ဆ င ရည မ င ႔ တင ရမည နည ႔တင ရမည နည ဟ သည ခ င စU င ႔ (က) ပည တ င ပည ပ ကၽ မ က င ပည ရ င မ က ဖ တ ခၚ သက ဆ င ရ က႑Aလ က က မ တ မ ဖ ႕က လ တ တ မ A A ထ က Aက ပ ပ သင ႔ ၾက င (ခ) ပည ထ င စ A န ဖင ႔ တ င င ႔ ပည နယ တ ႔Aတ က လ ပ ပ င ခ င ႔မ ပ မ ခ ၀ ပ သင ႔ ၾက င (ဂ) င င ရ ပ တ မ စ မ ဆ င ရည င ႔ Aရည A သ က မ င ႔တင ပ သင ႔ ၾက င (ဃ) ပည ထ င စ A န ဖင ႔ ၿမ ႕နယ င ႔ လ U ရA နည သည နရ မ Aတ က လ တ တ နရ ရရ ရ င ႔ ဖ ႕ၿဖ တ တက ရ ဆ င ရ က စၥရပ မ A Aထ A လ ပ လ ပ ဆ င သင ႔ ၾက င (င) လ တ တ ရ Aဖ ႕A သ သန ႔ ဖ ႕စည ထ ရ ဆ င ရ က သင ႔ ၾက င (စ) ပည နယ / တ င ဒသႀက မ Aတ က ဘတ ဂ က ခ ၀ ပ မ A နည ခ က A ပ ပင သင ႔ ၾက င (ဆ) လ တ တ Aမတ မ A တ ႕Aႀက A နည ခ က မ A ပ ပင ပ သင ႔ ၾက င Aခ က က ယ စ ပ စနစ (Proportional Representation) င ႔ ႔ Aမ စ က ယ စ ပ စနစ (Winner takes all) တ ႔ ႔ ႔ A နည ခ က A သ ခ က မ င ႔ စပ လ U - ႔စပ လ U (က) Aခ က က ယ စ ပ စနစ က င ႔သ ခင A ဖင ႔ မ A ရAတ က လလ င ႔မ နည ပ စ င ၾက င (ခ) လ တ င ပ ၀င င ခ င ႔ ပ မ ရရ င ၾက င (ဂ) Aမ သ ပန လည သင ႔ မတ ရ က A ထ က Aက ပ င ၾက င (ဃ) လ ပ ဂ လ င ႔ မ ၀ ဒ ခ ခ မင လ စ င ၾက င (င) Aမ စ က ယ စ ပ စနစ က င ႔သ ခင A ဖင ႔ တ င ရင သ မ ပ ၀င င ခ င ႔ နည ပ သ မည ဖစ ၾက င (စ) ဘ သ ရ က A ခခ သည Aစ န ရ က A ရ ယ ရ လ င ၾက င (ဆ) ပ တ Aတ င က ယ စ လ ယ သတ မ တ မ င ႔ပတ သက သ ဘ ထ က လ င ၾက င A ပ စ (၂) ဆ ခ က မ တ င ဒသ ပည နယ မ င င ႔ ႔ ပည ထ င စ လ တ တ မ တ င တ င ရင သ လ နည စ မ စစ မ န သည က ယ စ ပ မ A မည သ ႔ ႔ စ င စ င ႔ ႔ ရ က က က ယ မည နည ရ က က က ယ မည နည ဟ သည မ ခ န င ႔ ႔စပ လ U - (က) Aမ သ လ တ တ တ င တ င ရင သ Aမတ A ရAတ က နည န သ ၾက င ထ ႔ ၾက င ႔ ပည မ င ႔ Aခ တ သ တ င ရင သ က ယ စ လ ယ A ရAတ က တ ပ သင ႔ ၾက င