Two Years Later: Majority of Sacramento Residents Oppose War, Less Optimistic about U.S. Future in Iraq

Transcription

1 Two Years Later: Majority of Sacramento Residents Oppose War, Less Optimistic about U.S. Future in Iraq Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph. D Brenda M. Hofer, M.A. Since the United States went to war in Iraq on March 19, 2003, support for the war has dropped significantly in the Sacramento region. In 2003, more than half of the Sacramento region residents (52%) favored the invasion of Iraq with U.S. ground troops (Liu 2003). A year later, half of the residents (50%) still thought the war was worth fighting (Liu 2004). This year only a little over one-third (38%) approve of going to war. In addition, compared to a year ago (47%), fewer residents (36%) predict the U.S. situation in Iraq will be better next year. The approval rating for President Bush s handling of the situation in Iraq is also lower than the previous two years (42% in 2005 vs. 46% in 2004 and 2003). This war, however, has sharply divided registered voters in the Sacramento region, and there has been a steady increase in this division since In 2005, an overwhelming majority of Republican voters continue to back the military action (72% in 2005 vs. 80% in 2004), even as Democrats (77% in 2005 vs. 69% in 2004) and other voters (74% in 2005 vs. 52% in 2004) increase their opposition. Moreover, 79% Republicans approve of President Bush s handling of Iraq, while only 18% of Democrats approve. As a result, the Republican and Democratic views of President Bush regarding this measure differ by 61 percentage points in This is the largest divergence between Republicans and Democrats since the war started in 2003 (54 percentage points in 2004 and 45 percentage points in 2003). These are some of the findings of The 2005 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region, conducted from February 15 to March 10, 2005, by the Institute for Social Research, (CSUS). Page 1 of 9

2 Majority of Sacramento Residents Oppose War As we approach the second anniversary of the war in Iraq, more and more residents in the Sacramento region disagree with President Bush s decision to go to war. In 2003, the majority of Sacramento region residents (52%) supported the invasion, and 42% opposed it (Liu 2003). In 2004, Sacramento residents remained split over whether the war was worth going; half (50%) said it was worthwhile, whereas 45% indicated it was not (Liu 2004). However, by 2005, the majority (57%) oppose the military action, and only 38% back it. Compared to other Americans, residents in the Sacramento region are also more likely to oppose the war. According to a recent Gallup Poll, conducted from February 25 to 27, 2005, 51% Americans still say it was not a mistake for the United States to send troops to Iraq (Newport March 03, 2005). Opinion on the war varies among different counties and racial groups in the Sacramento region. Residents of Placer (50%) are more likely than residents of El Dorado (39%), Sacramento (37%), and Yolo (28%) counties to report that it was worthwhile to take the military action in Iraq. Whites (40%) support the war more than other racial groups (30%). The largest dissimilarities, however, are found among registered voters in the Sacramento region. Seventy-two percent of Republican voters believe it was worth going to war, while 77% Democrats hold the opposite view. Most Republican voters remain supportive of President Bush s decision to go to war (80% in 2004 vs.72% in 2005), even as Democrats increase their opposition (69% in 2004 vs.77% in 2005) and a lot more other voters have become opposed to the war (52% in 2004 vs.74% in 2005). This difference is even more dramatic between Republicans and other voters, from only 37% in 2004 to 51% in 2005, almost as close to the difference (54%) between Democrats and Republicans a year ago. All in all do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not? Comparison between 2004 and 2005 Opinion Sacramento Region (2005) Sacramento Region (2004) Worth going to war 38% 50% Not worth going to war Don t know 5 5 Page 2 of 9

3 Comparison among the Four Counties in the Sacramento Region Sacramento Yolo Placer El Dorado Worth going to war 37% 28% 50% 39% Not worth going to war Don t know Comparison between White and Other Racial Groups White Other Racial Groups 2005 Worth going to war 40% 30% Not worth going to war Don t know Worth going to war 55% 38% Not worth going to war Don t know 5 4 Comparison among Registered Voters Republicans Democrats Other Voters 2005 Worth going to war 72% 17% 21% Not worth going to war Don t know Worth going to war 80% 26% 43% Not worth going to war Don t know Page 3 of 9

4 Not too Optimistic about U.S. Future in Iraq Despite the relatively successful Iraqi elections in January, residents in the Sacramento region are not too optimistic when asked whether they think the U.S. situation in Iraq will be better, worse, or about the same a year from now. Only 36% say things will become better in This is more pessimistic than a year ago when we first asked the question in our 2004 survey. At that time, almost half (47%) believed the U.S. future in Iraq would be better in There are large differences among registered voters in the way they looked at the future of the Iraqi war. In 2004, more than two-thirds of Republican voters (68%) thought the U.S situation would become better in 2005, while relatively few Democrats (33%) and other voters (42%) shared the same view. In 2005, Republicans (59%) continue to see a better future a year from now. However, much fewer Democrats (19%) and other voters (26%) think this is the case. A year from now, do you think the U.S. situation in Iraq will be better, worse, or about the same? Comparison between the Sacramento Region in 2005 and 2004 Sacramento Region (2005) Sacramento Region (2004) Better 36% 47% Worse About the same Don t know 4 5 Comparison among Registered Voters Republicans Democrats Other Voters 2005 Better 59% 19% 26% Worse About the same Don t know Better 68% 33% 42% Worse About the same Don t know Page 4 of 9

5 Less Support for President Bush s Handling of the Situation in Iraq Compared to 2003 and 2004, support for President Bush s handling of the situation in Iraq (46% in 2004 and 2003 vs. 42% in 2005) declined slightly. Residents in the Sacramento region (42%) are also less likely than other Americans (45%) to approve of how he deals with the Iraqi situation (Newport March 03, 2005). This evaluation varies among the counties in the Sacramento region as well as between different racial and gender groups. Other racial groups (65%) and women (55%) are more likely to disapprove of President Bush in this measure than whites (50%) and men (52%). While the majority of residents in Sacramento (57%) and Yolo (59%) counties view his job performance in this area negatively, residents in Placer (53%) hold the opposite view. El Dorado residents are divided over this issue (48% approve vs. 47% disapprove). The largest discrepancy exists along the party lines. Seventy-nine percent of Republican voters approve of the way President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while only 18% of Democrats think so. Thus, the Republican and Democratic views of Bush differ by 61 percentage points. This difference is the largest we have seen and has grown steadily from 45 percentage points in 2003, to 54 percentage points in 2004, to 61 percentage points in I am going to read you a list of specific issues President Bush has to handle. Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling the situation in Iraq. Comparison among 2005, 2004 and 2003 Approve Disapprove Don t Know 2005 (United States 1 ) (Sacramento) (Sacramento) (Sacramento) Source: Gallup Poll conducted from February 25 to 27. Americans Remain Divided over Iraq War, Slightly less than half say it was a mistake to send U.S. troops. March 03, 2005 by Frank Newport. Comparison between White and Other Racial Groups White Other Racial Groups Approve 46% 30% Disapprove Don t know 4 5 Page 5 of 9

6 Comparison between Men and Women Men Women Approve 46% 39% Disapprove Don t know 2 6 Comparison among the Four Counties in the Sacramento Region Sacramento Yolo Placer El Dorado Approve 39% 36% 53% 48% Disapprove Don t know Comparison among Registered Voters Republicans Democrats Other Voters 2005 Approve 79% 18% 28% Disapprove Don t know Approve 76% 22% 38% Disapprove Don t know Approve 73% 28% 39% Disapprove Don t know Page 6 of 9

7 Survey Methods The above results are based on our fourth annual survey, The 2005 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region. This survey is a computerassisted telephone survey of 887 randomly selected adult residents age 18 or over in the Sacramento region. For the purpose of this study, the Sacramento region includes Sacramento, Yolo, Placer, and El Dorado counties. The objective of this 2005 survey is to assess the opinions of residents in the Sacramento region regarding a wide range of important local and national issues. More than 20 students conducted phone interviews in English and Spanish from February 15 to March 10, 2005, at the Institute for Social Research, California State University, Sacramento (CSUS). The sample is representative of the four counties in the Sacramento region and comparable to the 2000 U.S. Census (68% residents in the Census vs. 67% in the sample in Sacramento, 14% in the Census vs.15% in the sample in Placer, 9% in the Census vs. 10% in the sample in Yolo ; and 9% in the Census vs. 10% in the sample in El Dorado ). The margin of error for the survey is approximately ± 3% at the 95% confidence level. This survey has compared the Sacramento region findings with those from other California regions, the state, and the nation. Data cited regarding the state and other California regions often comes from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Surveys. Nationwide data often comes from Gallup polls. The College of Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Studies (SSIS) and the Office of Public Affairs at CSUS sponsored this project. Dr. Joseph Sheley, Dean of SSIS, is actively involved in this project and has made great contributions. This research is directed by Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph.D., Department of Sociology and Institute for Social Research,. Dr. Liu is an expert in public opinion polls, and has conducted over 20 surveys in the past nine years, including: 2004 Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region 2003 Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region 2002 Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region Survey of Iowa Business about Eldercare and Eldercare Needs Story Conservation Board Survey Grundy Youth Needs Assessment Marshalltown United Way Survey Direct all correspondence to Dr. Amy Q. Liu, Department of Sociology, California State University, Sacramento, 6000 J Street, Sacramento, CA ; (phone); (fax); amyliuus@yahoo.com. Please visit our web site ( for the executive summaries and full reports on the 2004, 2003 and 2002 annual surveys of the Sacramento region. Page 7 of 9

8 References Liu, Amy Qiaoming One Year Later: Still Divided on the War in Iraq, Less Support for President Bush (CSUS). Liu, Amy Qiaoming The Full Report for the 2003 Annual Survey of Public Opinion and Life Quality in the Sacramento Region California State University, Sacramento (CSUS). Newport, Frank Americans Remain Divided over Iraqi War, Slightly less than half say it was a mistake to send U.S. troops. Based on the Gallup Poll conducted from February 25 to 27, Page 8 of 9

9 Appendix I: The 2005 Annual Survey Research Team Members and Sponsors Director: Amy Qiaoming Liu, Ph. D. Associate Professor, Department of Sociology 6000 J. Street Sacramento, CA (phone) (fax) ( ) Advisor: Joseph Sheley, Ph. D. Dean, College of Social Science and Interdisciplinary Studies (phone) ( ) Data Collection Supervisor: Laura Jones Angie Mendoza Sandra Sutherland Institute for Social Research Editors: Erin Gonzales Mindy Edwards Graphic Designer: Team Members: Ginger Bennett, Sarah Champany, Claudia Chavez, Katie Conner, Vera Conrad, Ravi Dhami, Mindy Edwards, Dimari Epps, Erin Gonzales, Joe Gutierrez, Julie Harrington, Brenda Hofer, Leora Holbann, Jensen Kile, Annie Ly, Sharon Maher, Mazie Ngai, Veronica Perez, Jennie Reiken, Refugio Rivas, Jane Rodstein, Susan Smith, Lana Sumati, and Tonya Todd Sponsors: College of Social Science and Interdisciplinary Studies Office of Public Affairs Page 9 of 9