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1 Tufts University Professor Kelly M. Greenhill PS Office: Packard 311 Fall 2010 OHs: M, W 4:20-6:00pm Braker kelly.greenhill@tufts.edu or Tuesdays 1:10-4:00pm kelly_greenhill@harvard.edu The Causes of Modern War Course Description: This methodologically focused senior seminar explores the causes of interstate war, with a focus on preventable causes. Topics to be examined include the security dilemma, diversionary war, deterrence, power transition theory, misperceptions, domestic politics, the role of alliances, and economic causes of war. These theories will be examined through the lens of some of the major wars and crises of the modern era. Although we will cover a good deal of historical material, our focus will be primarily theoretical, and the particular conflicts examined will be used to illustrate and to question the logic of the various theories that purport to explain their causes. In other words, we will examine cases with an eye towards testing the prevailing explanations for their origins. 1 We will pay particular attention to the formulation of testable hypotheses and predictions, the identification and analysis of relevant data, and the effective presentation of theoretical concepts and empirical findings. Prerequisites: PS61 or equivalent; Senior standing Required Texts: The following texts will be available in the campus bookstore. You should also be able to find them in many neighborhood bookstores and on-line: Robert Rotberg and Theodore Rabb (eds.), The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge University Press, 1989) hereafter referred to as R2. Steve Miller, Sean Lynn-Jones, and Stephen Van Evera (eds.) Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War: An International Security Reader (Princeton University Press, 1991) hereafter referred to as MS. Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical Illustrations (Basic Books, 2006) hereafter referred to as Walzer. Additional readings will be available electronically. On-line journals may be accessed through the e- journals/databases link on Tisch Library s main page. Several others are available through hyperlinks listed below. All other readings will be accessible through Blackboard (noted as BL below). We will cover a good deal of material in a relatively short period of time; thus, students unprepared to take on a heavy reading load should NOT take this course. Those interested in a basic primer on theories of international conflict might also consider purchasing: Greg Cashman, What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict (Lexington Books, 1999). Those who lack a solid grounding in the history of modern wars may also consider purchasing: Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War (Doubleday, 1996). Course Format and Requirements: This course will be conducted as a seminar. This means that during each meeting I will do some conceptual stage setting and, as necessary, raise questions and guide our conversation. However, I will do relatively little lecturing. Thus, if you are not comfortable speaking up in class and/or actively engaging in class discussions and debates, I strongly advise you NOT take this course. In addition, over the course of the term, we will view a variety of films and other visual media. On occasion, this will necessitate that we meet for longer than 2.5 hours, i.e., 1 The grouping of a case with a particular set of theories should not be construed therefore as suggesting that said theories offer the best explanation; that determination is for you to decide. Greenhill, Fall 10 1

2 class will not end promptly at 4pm. If you cannot commit to this arrangement, please do not take this course. On other occasions, of course, we may break early! Students will be expected to complete the following tasks: 1. Attendance and Participation (incl. discussion questions) (20% of grade). You are expected to do the readings before the class for which they are assigned, attend each session, and actively participate in class discussions and exercises. Due to the intensely interactive nature of this course, please be aware that: a) if you miss more than two classes for any reason, your final course grade will be adversely affected; b) if you arrive more than ten minutes after class begins, you will be considered absent that day; and c) if you are tardy with regularity, even if by fewer than ten minutes, your final grade too will be adversely affected. Also, on two occasions during the term, you will be called upon to act as class expert. As an expert, you will be expected to prepare discussion questions to help guide our conversation as well as to be particularly well acquainted with the week s readings. That said, please come prepared to every meeting; those who fail to do so will garner little benefit from our discussions and should not expect to do well in this course. 2. Theory Exercise (15%). In this conceptual exercise, you and a classmate will work together to arrow diagram a theory of your choice as well as identify concrete predictions that follow from your chosen theory. Details and instructions will be provided in a few weeks. 3. Research Paper (45%). In this paper, you will be tasked with identifying the key cause(s) and consequences of an international conflict of your choice. You will also be asked whether based on the identified cause(s) whether the conflict could have been avoided. The specifics of the assignment will be announced and discussed in class several weeks into the semester. You will be expected to produce both a complete rough and final draft of this paper. The papers which should be pages long, double-spaced, written in a 12 pt font, and use 1 margins throughout will be graded based upon the quality of the research and analysis, clarity of presentation, and organization. (You will be expected to draw upon both primary and secondary sources.) Papers must also be correct in terms of grammar, punctuation and spelling, be fully and properly cited, and employ a single, consistent reference style throughout. Papers deficient in these respects will be penalized, as will incomplete rough drafts. 4. Written Critique (20%). As part of the research paper assignment, you will be required to offer a substantive, written critique of a fellow student s rough draft. Guidelines and helpful hints to assist you in undertaking this assignment will be provided ahead of time. Please note that late critiques will not be accepted under any circumstances, as tardiness may negatively affect the recipient s capacity to produce the best paper he/she can. Please plan accordingly. Deadlines: Discussion questions from each week s experts must be posted to Blackboard no later than NOON on the Saturday before the class meeting in question. So, for instance, those tasked with writing questions for Week 3 (September 21) must post their questions on or before Saturday, September 18, at 12:00pm. Any questions posted after the deadline will be viewed as late, and penalties will apply. Without exception, questions posted more than 24 hours after the noon Saturday deadline will receive no credit. If you believe you will be unable to meet your obligation in a given week, it is up to you to make appropriate arrangements with another classmate. Theory exercise due at the start of class on October 12. Rough draft of your research paper due at the start of class on November 16; a hard copy should be brought to class AND an e-copy (in Word) should be posted to Blackboard by the same deadline. PLEASE DO NOT include your name anywhere on the e-version, so that critiquing can be done blindly and anonymously. Student critiques of rough drafts must be posted on Blackboard no later than noon, Tuesday, November 23 (in Word format). All identifying information will be removed prior to distribution to ensure anonymity. Greenhill, Fall 10 2

3 My comments on your rough drafts will be distributed no later than noon, November 28. Final version of your research paper will be due no later than 5:00pm, Monday, December 13; a hard copy must be placed in my mailbox in the Political Science Department AND an e-version must be submitted to TURNITIN.com by the same deadline. Late final research papers will be accepted and incompletes will be granted solely at the discretion of the instructor and considered only in the event of significant and documented personal emergencies (e.g., death in the family, serious illness (colds do not count)). Please note that, in the interest of fairness and equity for all students, under no condition will extensions will be granted due to the stresses of academic life (e.g., demands of other classes, due dates of other papers or exams, extracurricular activities, etc.). Because strictly speaking there are no right or wrong answers to many of the questions we will tackle, your success in this class depends upon your ability to express yourself in a well-reasoned, structured and articulate manner. Therefore, should you experience problems organizing your thoughts and/or engaging in the research paper writing process, I strongly recommend you take advantage of the writing resources offered by Tufts: Also, please do not wait until a deadline is upon you to do so; early intervention/action will result in a more successful outcome. Finally, if you are unable or unwilling to meet the prescribed deadlines or adhere to the aforementioned rules of conduct that govern this course for any reason, you should not take the class. Continued enrollment in the course after this date will be treated as recognition and acceptance of all deadlines and expectations. Therefore, please do not request that exceptions be made under any circumstances. Course Schedule: Session 1 (September 7): Introduction and Course Overview - No assigned reading Session 2 (September 14): Evolution in the Conduct, Portrayal and Prevalence of War - Carl Kaysen, Is War Obsolete? A Review Essay, International Security, (spring 1990), pp {Excerpts from] Joanna Bourke, Chapter 1: The Pleasures of War and Chapter 2: The Warrior Myth, in An Intimate History of Killing: Face to Face Killing in 20 th Century Warfare (Basic Books, 1999). - Walzer, Chapter Three, The Rules of War, pp ; and Chapter 9: Noncombatant Immunity and Military Necessity, pp in Just and Unjust Wars. - Paul Kramer, The Water Cure, New Yorker, February 25, 2008; available at: - Haim Watzman, Hiding Behind the Enemy, New York Times, June 22, 2006; available at: Session 3 (September 21): Applying the Scientific Method to the Study of War - Stephen Van Evera, Guide to Methodology for Students of Political Science, Chapter 1. (BL) - [Excerpt from] Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry (Princeton University Press, 1994), pp only. (BL) - [Excerpt from] David Cunningham and Douglas Lemke, Combining Civil and Interstate Wars, unpublished working paper, pp. 1-9; only (BL). Charles S. Maier, Wargames , pp only in R2. - [Excerpt from] Walzer, Chapter 1, section entitled Historical Relativism only, pp [Excerpt from] Kelly M. Greenhill, Counting the Cost: The Politics of Numbers in Armed Greenhill, Fall 10 3

4 Conflict, in Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts: The Politic of Numbers in Global Crime and Conflict (Cornell University Press, 2010) (BL). - Jon Elster, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1989), Chapter 1. (BL) Session 4 (September 28): Structure, Balance and System Polarity; Is Conflict with China Inevitable? - Kenneth N. Waltz, The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory in R2. - John J. Mearsheimer, Chapter 9: The Causes of Great Power War in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, pp (W.W. Norton, 2001). (BL) - [Excerpt from] Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1999), pp only. - {Excerpt from} Charles L. Glaser, Realists as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-Help, International Security, vol. 19, no. 3 (winter 1994/1995), only pp. (bottom of) are required, although the rest of the article is worth a gander. - Robert J. Art, The United States and the Rise of China: Implications for the Long Haul, Political Science Quarterly (forthcoming, 2010) (BL). - Randall L. Schweller, Neorealism s Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma? Security Studies, vol. 5, no. 3 (1996), pp Session 5 (October 5): Hegemonic War and Power Transitions - Robert Gilpin. The Theory of Hegemonic War, in R2. - Walzer, Chapter 5: Anticipations. - Jack Levy. Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War. World Politics, vol. 40, no. 1 (October 1987), pp Dan Reiter, Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen, International Security, (fall 1995), pp only. - [Excerpt from] Richard Ned Lebow, Windows of Opportunity: Do States Jump Through Them?, International Security, vol. 9, no. 1 (summer 1984), pp only. Session 6 (October 12): Alliances, Balancing, Bandwagoning and the Case of World War I - Stephen Van Evera, The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War in MS. - Stephen Walt, Chapter 2: Explaining Alliance Formation, in The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press, 1987), pp only. (BL) - [Excerpt from] Jack Snyder and Thomas Christensen, Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity, International Organization (spring 1990), pp only. - Scott Sagan, 1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense and Instability in MS. - Sean Lynn-Jones, Détente and Deterrence: Anglo-German Relations, in MS. - Kagan, Chapter 2: The First World War; still better is Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August (Ballantine Books, 1962). THEORY EXERCISE DUE BEFORE THE START OF CLASS (10/12) Greenhill, Fall 10 4

5 Session 7 (October 19): NO CLASS - Tailored research paper-related tutorial with Tisch Library staff can be arranged if sufficient interest exists; TBD Session 8 (October 26): Economics, Trade, and Interdependence - Dale C. Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations, International Security, vol. 20, no. 4 (spring 1996), pp [Excerpt from] Jeffrey Taliaferro, Realism, Power Shifts and Major War, Security Studies, vol. 10, no. 4 (summer 2001), pp. (middle of) only. - Bruce M. Russett, Prosperity and Peace, International Studies Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 4 (December 1983), pp Geoffrey Blainey, Chapter 2: Paradise is a Bazaar and Chapter 6: War Chests and Pulse Beats in The Causes of War (New York: Free Press, 1973), pp and (BL) Session 9 (November 2): Domestic Politics and Diversionary War; Segue to WWII - Jack S. Levy, Domestic Politics and War in R2. - Walzer, Chapter 18 The Crime of Aggression: Political Leaders and Citizens. - [Excerpt from] Kenneth A. Schultz, Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War, International Organization, vol. 53, no. 2 (spring 1999), pp and only. - [Excerpt from] Christopher Gelpi, Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 41, no. 2 (April 1997), only pp and are required; the rest is simply recommended. - Jack Snyder, Chapter 2: Three Theories of Overexpansion and Chapter 3: Germany and the Pattern of Late Development in Myths. (BL). - Christopher Layne, Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace, International Security, vol. 19, no. 2 (autumn 1994), pp Session 10 (November 9): NO CLASS (Thursday schedule on Tuesday) Session 11 (November 16): World War II: Inevitable Clash or Failure to Prevent? - Jeffrey L. Hughes, The Origins of World War II in Europe: British Deterrence and German Expansionism, in R2. - Review Snyder and Christensen, Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks, pp , and Read pp Scott Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, in R2. - Saburo Ienega, The Pacific War (New York, NY: Pantheon Books, 1978), Chapters 1-3. (BL) - Kagan, Chapter 4: The Second World War, (BL). ROUGH DRAFT OF RESEARCH PAPER BEFORE THE START OF CLASS (11/16) Session 12 (November 23): Psychology and Misperceptions; The Case of the Origins and Escalation of the Korean Conflict - Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1976), pp (feel free to skim rest to p. 113) (BL); or Jervis, War and Misperception in R2. - Jack S. Levy, Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Greenhill, Fall 10 5

6 Problems, World Politics, vol. 36, no. 1 (October 1983), pp (BL) - Daniel Gilbert, He Who Cast the First Stone Probably Didn t, New York Times, July 24, Allen S. Whiting, The U.S.-China War in Korea in Alexander L. George (ed.), Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management (Westview Press, 1991). (BL) - [Excerpt from] Richard Ned Lebow, Chapter 6 in Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 1981), pp. TBA (BL) - Alexander George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy, Chapter 6: Outbreak of the Korean War, and/or Chapter 7: Chinese Communist Intervention in Korea. (BL) - Matthew Ridgway, The Korean War, Chapter 1. (BL) CRITIQUES OF ROUGH DRAFTS DUE BY NOON (11/23) Session 13 (November 30): Prevention, Preemption or Political Invention? The Case of the Second Gulf War - Review Jervis on war and misperceptions - Refresh your memory on pre-emptive and preventive war. - George Packer, The Assassins Gate: America In Iraq (NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005), pp (Chapter Two). (BL) - Additional readings TBA Session 14 (December 7): (Nuclear) Deterrence; the Case of the Cuban Missile Crisis - Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966), Chapters 1-2. (BL) - Walzer, Chapter 17 Nuclear Deterrence - Kagan, The Cuban Missile Crisis. (in text and on BL) - George H. Quester, Crises and the Unexpected in R2. - Iklé, Epilogue: Ending Wars Before they Start in Every War Must End. (BL) - Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospects of Armageddon (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989), Chapters 1-2; and Robert F. Kennedy, Thirteen Days (W.W. Norton, 1971). Greenhill, Fall 10 6