Version 9/6/11. PS Office: Packard 311 OHs: Mondays, 1:15-3:45pm, or by appt. The Causes of Modern War

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1 Tufts University Professor Kelly M. Greenhill PS Office: Packard 311 Fall 2011 OHs: Mondays, 1:15-3:45pm, or by appt. Packard Hall Conference Room Wednesdays 6:30-9:00/9:30pm or The Causes of Modern War Course Description: This methodologically focused senior seminar explores the causes of interstate war, with a focus on preventable causes. Topics to be examined include the security dilemma, diversionary war, deterrence, power transition theory, misperceptions, domestic politics, the role of alliances, and economic causes of war. These theories will be examined through the lens of some of the major wars and crises of the modern era. Although we will cover a good deal of historical material, our focus will be primarily theoretical, and the particular conflicts examined will be used to illustrate and to question the logic of the various theories that purport to explain their causes. In other words, we will examine cases with an eye towards testing the prevailing explanations for their origins. 1 We will pay particular attention to the formulation of testable hypotheses and predictions, the identification and analysis of relevant data, and the effective presentation of theoretical concepts and empirical findings. Prerequisites: PS61 or equivalent; senior standing Required Texts: The following texts will be available in the campus bookstore. You should also be able to find them in many neighborhood bookstores and on-line: Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989) hereafter referred to as R2. Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical Illustrations (Basic Books, 2006) hereafter referred to as Walzer. Steve Miller, Sean Lynn-Jones, and Stephen Van Evera (eds.) Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War: An International Security Reader (Princeton University Press, 1991) hereafter referred to as MS. Recommended Text: Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War (Doubleday, 1996). Additional readings will be available electronically. On-line journals may be accessed through the e- journals/databases link on Tisch Library s main page (noted as (ER) for electronic reserve below). Several others are available through hyperlinks listed below. All other readings will be accessible through Trunk (the replacement for Blackboard, noted as (TR) below). We will cover a good deal of material in a relatively short period of time; thus, students unprepared to take on a heavy reading load should NOT take this course. Course Format and Requirements: This course will be conducted as a seminar. This means that during each meeting I will do some conceptual stage setting and, as necessary, raise questions and guide our conversation. However, I will do relatively little lecturing. Thus, if you are not comfortable speaking up in class and/or actively engaging in class discussions and debates, I strongly advise you NOT take this course. In addition, over the course of the term, we will view a variety of films and other visual media. On occasion, this will necessitate that we meet for longer than 2.5 hours, i.e., class will not end promptly at 9:00pm. If you cannot commit to this arrangement, please do not take this course. On other occasions, of course, we may break early! Students will be expected to complete the following tasks: 1. Attendance and Class Participation (incl. written response paper) (20% of grade). You are 1 The grouping of a case with a particular set of theories should not be construed as suggesting that said theories offer the best explanation; that determination is for you to decide. Greenhill, Fall

2 expected to do the readings before the class for which they are assigned, attend each session, and actively participate in class discussions and exercises. Due to the intensely interactive nature of this course, please be aware that: a) if you miss more than two classes for any reason, your final course grade will be adversely affected; b) if you arrive more than ten minutes after class begins, you will be considered absent that day; and c) if you are tardy with regularity, even if by fewer than ten minutes, your final grade too will be adversely affected. On one occasion during the term you will also be expected to write and present to the class a response to some or all of that week s case and assigned readings. For the written portion of this assignment, you will be expected to write a so-called reaction paper. This paper should be approximately four-five double-spaced pages, using 1-inch margins and 12 pt. font. It should include a brief summary of the arguments and evidence/methods used in the reading(s) under scrutiny and a critical evaluation of either the method of analysis or the argument itself. You may respond to any or all of the assigned readings for your given week. You should pick an argument or set of arguments that speak to (or alternatively, that perplex) you. In formulating your responses, please keep in mind that depth of argument is preferable to breadth. Please keep in mind that proper grammar, correct spelling, and appropriate citation of sources are minimum requirements for acceptable papers. During the relevant class meeting, you will also be expected to give a brief and very informal oral presentation that summarizes the content of your response paper to kick off our discussions. NOTE: The Chicago Manual of Style ( and Kate Turabian s A Manual for Writers of Term Papers, Theses and Dissertations (University of Chicago Press) are both excellent and important resources worth frequent consultation for your response papers as well as all other written assignments. 2. Theory Exercise (15%). In this conceptual exercise, you and a classmate will work together to arrow diagram a theory of your choice as well as identify concrete predictions that follow from your chosen theory. Details and instructions will be provided in a few weeks. 3. Research Paper (45%). In this paper, you will be tasked with identifying the key cause(s) and consequences of an international conflict of your choice. You will also be asked whether based on the identified cause(s) whether the conflict could have been avoided. The specifics of the assignment will be announced and discussed in class several weeks into the semester. You will be expected to produce both a complete rough and final draft of this paper. The papers which should be pages long, double-spaced, written in a 12 pt font, and use 1 margins throughout will be graded based upon the quality of the research and analysis, clarity of presentation, and organization. (You will be expected to draw upon both primary and secondary sources.) Papers must also be correct in terms of grammar, punctuation and spelling, be fully and properly cited, and employ a single, consistent reference style throughout. Papers deficient in these respects will be penalized, as will incomplete rough drafts. 4. Written Critique (20%). As part of the research paper assignment, you will be required to offer a substantive, written critique of a fellow student s rough draft. Guidelines and helpful hints to assist you in undertaking this assignment will be provided ahead of time. Please note that late critiques will not be accepted under any circumstances, as tardiness may negatively affect the recipient s capacity to produce the best paper he/she can. Please plan accordingly. Deadlines: Response papers are due no later than noon on the day before the relevant class meeting. So, for instance, if you are writing a paper for our October 19 th meeting, without exception, it must be posted to Trunk before noon on October 18 th. The theory exercise is due at the start of class on October 12. A complete, rough draft of your research paper is due at the start of class on November 16; a hard copy should be brought to class AND an e-copy in Word (.doc) format should be posted to TRUNK by the same deadline. PLEASE DO NOT include your name anywhere on the e-version, so that critiquing can be done blindly and anonymously. Greenhill, Fall

3 Student critiques of rough drafts must be ed to me as a Word (.doc) file no later than noon, Tuesday, November 22. All identifying information will be removed prior to distribution to ensure anonymity. My comments on your rough drafts will be distributed by noon, November 28. Final version of your research paper will be due no later than 5:00pm, Monday, December 12; a hard copy must be placed in my departmental mailbox ON THE FIRST FLOOR of the Political Science Department AND an e-version must be submitted to TURNITIN.com by the same deadline. Late final research papers will be accepted and incompletes granted only in the event of prior approval by the instructor. Such requests will be considered only in the event of significant and documented personal emergencies (e.g., death in the family, serious illness (e.g., colds do not count). Please note that, in the interest of fairness and equity for all students, under no condition will extensions will be granted due to the stresses of academic life (e.g., demands of other classes, due dates of other papers or exams, etc.) Nor will they be granted due to demands associated with extracurricular activities. No late assignments will be accepted absent prior approval under any circumstance. Because strictly speaking there are no right or wrong answers to many of the questions we will tackle, your success in this class depends upon your ability to express yourself in a well-reasoned, structured and articulate manner. Therefore, should you experience problems organizing your thoughts and/or engaging in the research paper writing process, I strongly recommend you take advantage of the writing resources offered by Tufts: Please endeavor not to wait until a deadline is upon you to seek assistance; early intervention/action will result in a more successful outcome. Finally, if you are unable or unwilling to meet the prescribed deadlines or adhere to the aforementioned rules of conduct that govern this course for any reason, you should not take the class. Continued enrollment in the course after this date will be treated as recognition and acceptance of all deadlines and expectations. Therefore, please do not request that exceptions be made under any circumstances. Course Schedule: Session 1 (September 7): Introduction and Course Overview - No assigned reading Session 2 (September 14): Evolution in the Conduct, Portrayal and Prevalence of War - [Excerpt from] Paul Hensel, The More Things Change: Recognizing and Responding to Trends in Armed Conflict, pp and charts ONLY; available at: - Carl Kaysen, Is War Obsolete? A Review Essay, International Security, (spring 1990), pp (ER). - Joanna Bourke, An Intimate History of Killing: Face to Face Killing in 20 th Century Warfare (Basic Books, 1999) Chapter 1: The Pleasures of War (TR). - Alexander B. Downes, Targeting Civilians in War (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, 2008), Chapter 1 (TR). - Walzer, Chapter Three, The Rules of War, pp ; and Chapter 9: Noncombatant Immunity and Military Necessity, pp Paul Kramer, The Water Cure, New Yorker, February 25, 2008; available at: - Susan Sontag, Looking at War: Photography s View of Devastation and Death, The New Yorker, December 12, 2002; available at: - Joanna Bourke, An Intimate History of Killing: Face to Face Killing in 20 th Century Warfare Greenhill, Fall

4 (Basic Books, 1999), Chapter 2: The Warrior Myth (TR). Session 3 (Week of September 21): NO CLASS Session 4 (September 28): Applying the Scientific Method to the Study of War - Stephen Van Evera, Guide to Methodology for Students of Political Science, Chapter 1. (TR) - [Excerpt from] Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry (Princeton University Press, 1994), pp only. (TR) - Patrick Porter, Good Anthropology, Bad History: America s Cultural Turn in the War on Terror, in Robert Dover and Michael S. Goodman, Spinning Intelligence: Why Intelligence Needs the Media, Why the Media Needs Intelligence (Columbia University Press, 2009), Ch. 4 (TR). - Charles S. Maier, Wargames , pp only in R2. - Seasons of Discontent, The Economist, August 27, 2011; available at: - Kelly M. Greenhill, Chapter 6: Counting the Cost: The Politics of Numbers in Armed Conflict, in Peter Andreas and Kelly M. Greenhill, eds. Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts: The Politic of Numbers in Global Crime and Conflict (Cornell University Press, 2010) (TR). - Jon Elster, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1989), Chapter 1 (TR). Session 5 (October 5): System Structure, Balance & Polarity; Is a US-China Conflict Inevitable?, Part I - Kenneth N. Waltz, The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory in R2. - John J. Mearsheimer, Chapter 9: The Causes of Great Power War in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, (W.W. Norton, 2001), pp (TR). - John G. Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno, and William C. Wohlforth, Introduction: Unipolarity, State Behavior, and Systemic Consequences, World Politics, vol. 61, no. 1 (2009): 1 27 (ER). - {Excerpt from} Charles L. Glaser, Realists as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-Help, International Security, vol. 19, no. 3 (winter 1994/1995): only pp. (bottom of) are required, although the rest of the article is worth a gander (ER). - Robert J. Art, The United States and the Rise of China: Implications for the Long Haul, Political Science Quarterly, vol. 25, no. 3 (fall 2010): (ER). - Randall L. Schweller, Neorealism s Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma? Security Studies, vol. 5, no. 3 (1996), pp (ER). Session 6 (October 12): Hegemonic War and Power Transitions; Is a US-China Conflict Inevitable?, Part II THEORY EXERCISE DUE AT THE START OF CLASS - Robert Gilpin. The Theory of Hegemonic War, in R2. - Walzer, Chapter 5: Anticipations. - Jack Levy. Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War. World Politics, vol. 40, no. 1 (October 1987), pp (ER). - Dan Reiter, Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen, International Security, vol. 20, no. 2 (fall 1995), pp only (ER). - [Excerpt from] Richard Ned Lebow, Windows of Opportunity: Do States Jump Through Them?, International Security, vol. 9, no. 1 (summer 1984), pp only (ER). - Robert S. Ross, China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response, International Security, vol. 34, no. 2 (2009): 46-81, and Correspondence: Debating China s Naval Nationalism, International Security, vol. 35, no. 2( Fall 2010): (ER). Greenhill, Fall

5 Session 7 (October 19): Alliances, Balancing, Bandwagoning and the Case of World War I - Stephen Van Evera, The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War in MS. - Stephen Walt, Chapter 2: Explaining Alliance Formation, in The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press, 1987), pp only. (TR) - [Excerpt from] Thomas Christensen and Jack Snyder, Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity, International Organization (spring 1990), pp only (ER). - Scott Sagan, 1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense and Instability in MS. - Sean Lynn-Jones, Détente and Deterrence: Anglo-German Relations, in MS. - [Excerpt from] Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War (Basic Books, 1998), Chapters 1 and 2 (TR). - Kagan, Chapter 2: The First World War; still better is Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August (Ballantine Books, 1962). (Tisch Library) Session 8 (October 26): Economics, Trade, and Interdependence - Dale C. Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations, International Security, vol. 20, no. 4 (spring 1996): 5-41 (ER). - John Gallagher and Ronald Robinson., The Imperialism of Free Trade, Economic History Review, vol. 6, no. 1 (1953): 1 15 (ER). - Bruce M. Russett, Prosperity and Peace, International Studies Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 4 (December 1983): (ER). - Geoffrey Blainey, Chapter 2: Paradise is a Bazaar and Chapter 6: War Chests and Pulse Beats in The Causes of War (New York: Free Press, 1973), pp and (TR). - [Skim] Michael Mastanduno, System Maker and Privilege Taker: U.S. Power and the International Political Economy, World Politics, vol. 61, no. 1 (2009): (ER). Session 9 (November 2): Domestic Politics and Diversionary War; Segue to WWII - Jack S. Levy, Domestic Politics and War in R2. - [Excerpt from] Kenneth A. Schultz, Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War, International Organization, vol. 53, no. 2 (spring 1999): and only (ER). - [Excerpt from] Christopher Gelpi, Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 41, no. 2 (April 1997): only pp and are required; the rest is simply recommended (ER). - Jack Snyder, Chapter 2: Three Theories of Overexpansion and Chapter 3: Germany and the Pattern of Late Development in Myths (TR). - John M. Schuessler, The Deception Dividend: FDR s Undeclared War, International Security, vol. 34, no. 4 (spring 2010): ; and Correspondence (Dan Reiter and Schuessler): FDR, Entry into World War II, and Selection Effects Theory, International Security, vol. 35, no. 2 (fall 2010): (ER). - Christopher Layne, Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace, International Security, vol. 19, no. 2 (autumn 1994), pp (ER). Session 10 (November 9): World War II: Inevitable Clash or Failure to Prevent? - Jeffrey L. Hughes, The Origins of World War II in Europe: British Deterrence and German Expansionism, in R2. - Review Christensen and Snyder, Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks, pp ; and read pp (ER). - Scott Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, in R2. - Saburo Ienega, The Pacific War (New York, NY: Pantheon Books, 1978), Chapters 1-3 (TR). Greenhill, Fall

6 Session 11 (November 16): Psychology and Misperceptions; the Case of the Korean Conflict ROUGH DRAFT OF RESEARCH PAPER DUE AT THE START OF CLASS (11/16) - Robert Jervis, War and Misperception in R2. - Jack S. Levy, Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems, World Politics, vol. 36, no. 1 (October 1983), pp (ER) - Daniel Gilbert, He Who Cast the First Stone Probably Didn t, New York Times, July 24, 2006 (ER).. - Betty Glad and Philipp Rosenberg, Bargaining Under Fire: Limit Setting and Maintenance During the Korean War, in Psychological Dimensions of War (Sage, 1990), pp (TR). - Allen S. Whiting, The U.S.-China War in Korea in Alexander L. George (ed.), Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management (Westview Press, 1991). (TR) - [Excerpt from] Richard Ned Lebow, Chapter 6 in Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 1981), pp. 148-the top of 164; the bottom of 169-the middle of 184; and the bottom of 192-the top of 216 (TR). - Alexander George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy, Chapter 6: Outbreak of the Korean War, and/or Chapter 7: Chinese Communist Intervention in Korea. (TR) - Matthew Ridgway, The Korean War, Chapter 1. (TR) CRITIQUES OF ROUGH DRAFTS DUE NO LATER THAN 5pm (11/22) Session 12 (November 23): NO CLASS (Thanksgiving holiday) Session 13 (November 30): Prevention, Preemption or Political Invention? The Case of the Second Gulf War - Review Jervis on war and misperceptions. - Refresh your memory on pre-emptive and preventive war. - George Packer, The Assassins Gate: America In Iraq (NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005), pp (Chapter Two) (TR). - Chaim Kaufmann, Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas, International Security 29, no. 1 (summer 2004): 5-48; and Ronald Krebs and Kaufmann, Correspondence: Selling the Market Short? The Marketplace of Ideas and the Iraq War, International Security 29, no. 4 (spring 2005): (ER). - Jon Western, The War Over Iraq: Selling War to the American Public, in A. Trevor Thrall and Jane K. Cramer, American Foreign Policy and the Politics of Fear (Routledge, 2008), (TR). - {Excerpt from] Kelly M. Greenhill, Fact and Fiction in an Era of Truthiness (TR). - Michael Glennon, "Why the Security Council Failed," Foreign Affairs, (May/June 2003); and Ed Luck et al., Stayin' Alive: The Rumors of the UN's Death Have Been Exaggerated, Foreign Affairs (July/August 2003) (ER). Session 14 (December 7): (Nuclear) Deterrence; the Case of the Cuban Missile Crisis - Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966), Chapters 1-2 (TR). - Walzer, Chapter 17 Nuclear Deterrence - Kagan, The Cuban Missile Crisis (TR). - George H. Quester, Crises and the Unexpected in R2. - Iklé, Epilogue: Ending Wars Before they Start in Every War Must End (TR). - Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospects of Armageddon (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989), Chapters 1-2; and Robert F. Kennedy, Thirteen Days (W.W. Norton, 1971). (Tisch Library) Greenhill, Fall