IGA 452. THE CAUSES OFGREAT POWER WAR: WORLD WAR I, WORLD WAR II, AND WORLD WAR III? Fall, 1.0 credit Tuesday-Thursday, 10:10-11:30 am BL/1

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1 IGA 452 THE CAUSES OFGREAT POWER WAR: WORLD WAR I, WORLD WAR II, AND WORLD WAR III? Fall, 1.0 credit Tuesday-Thursday, 10:10-11:30 am BL/1 Richard Rosecrance This course looks at the causes of World Wars I and II (theoretical, economic, social, political, and military to see if they might apply to war between China (or some other Great Power) and the United States in the 2020s or afterward. Prior to World War I, one great Power was in process of passing another, assumptions of warfare permitted offensive strategies, strong economic interdependence existed, and domestic unrest led some leaders to believe they might gain internal support from a successful war. Britain went to great lengths to appease the United States at the very time it was opposing Germany. Will the United States be willing to make a similar obeisance to non-democratic China a generation from now? In the 1930s, the closure of the international economy led to economic nationalism; economic nationalism led to territorial strategies. Prior to World War II Hitler and the Japanese militarists took extraordinary risks when they attacked enemies they could not possibly defeat and sought to use more power than they actually possessed. Deterrence did not work then and it might not work in the future. An expanding China might need more reassurance than a possibly declining United States could provide. On the other hand the rise of the West might offset the rise of the East. The key question f or the course is to consider future international circumstances which might tempt war and ask: how do we prevent it?

2 There will be three papers, no final exam. The first will be concentrated on World War I (2000) words; The second on World War II (2000 words); the third on World War III(?) (3000 words). The required books are: May, Rosecrance and Steiner, eds. History and Neorealism (Cambridge University Press, 2010); Dale Copeland, The Origins of Major War (Cornell Press, 2000); Niall Ferguson, The War of the World (Penguin, 2006). New work by Barry Eichengreen will also be assigned. Other readings will be in packets available from CMO. We also expect experts to address the class from time to time. SHOPPING AUG 31 Session 1, Thursday, September 2: Introduction N. Ferguson War of the World, Introduction [BOOK] May, Rosecrance and Steiner, Intro WORLD WAR I Session 2, Tuesday, September 7: Power Theories Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2001), Introduction, pp. xxx-xxx, and Chapter 2, "Anarchy and the Struggle for Power", pp [reqd chap 2, need to copy and request Intro] D. Copeland, The Origins of Major War, Chaps 1-4, 12 [BOOK]. Session 3, Thursday, September 9: Economic Theories Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981), Chapter 2.

3 Eichengreen, Barry J., Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), Conclusion. Eichengreen, Barry J., Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), Chapter 2. Session 4, Tuesday, September 14: Inevitability Kennedy, Paul, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Vintage Books, 1989), Introduction. Session 5, Thursday, September 16: Domestic Politics Rosecrance, Steiner, concluding chapter of History and Neorealism (Cambridge University Press, 2010) Session 6, Tuesday, September 21: Military Theories Trachtenberg, Marc, History and Strategy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), Chapter 2. Van Evera, Stephen, "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War," International Security, 9/1 (Summer, 1984), pp [reqd] Quester, George H., Offense and Defense in the International System, (New York: Transaction Books, 1977), "Offense and Defense", pp [reqd] Stevenson, David, "Command Decision-Making: Imperial Germany, ," in Imlay, Talbot C. and Monica Duffy Toft, The Fog of Peace and War Planning: Military and Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty (New York: Routledge, 2006). WORLD WAR II--

4 Session 7, Thursday, September 23: Theories of History. N. Ferguson, chaps 1-10 [BOOK] May, Rosecrance, and Steiner, Chaps (Ferguson, Barnhart, Steiner) First paper due Session 8, Tuesday, September 28: Economics Eichengreen, Barry J., Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), Chapter 3, Interwar Instability, pp [reqd] Kindleberger, C., World Economic Primacy, 1500 to 1990 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996). Kindleberger, Charles, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises [3rd edition], (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1996), Chapter 2, pp , "Anatomy of a Typical Crisis"; and Chapter 4, xxx, pp. xxx. [reqd chap 2, need to copy and request chap 4] Session 9, Thursday, September 30: Power Theories Copeland, Chap 5 [BOOK]; Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2001), Chapter 6. Session 10, Tuesday, October 5: Domestic Politics Snyder, Jack L., Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991), Chapter 2. Steiner, Britain before WWII (In History and Neorealism) Session 11, Thursday, October 7: Military Theories Christensen, Thomas J. and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity,"

5 International Organization, 44/2 (Spring, 1990), pp [read] Alexandroff and Rosecrance, Deterrence in 1939 Session 12, Tuesday, October 12: Failure of Prevention Lukacs, John, June 1941: Hitler and Stalin (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006), pages or chapters xxx. Kershaw, Ian, Fateful Choices: Ten Decisions that Changed the World, (New York: Penguin Press, 2007), pp ; ; Session 13, Thursday, October 14: Why Cold War Did Not Lead to Hot War Gaddis, John Lewis, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987), chapters xxx. Deborah Larson and Alexei Shevchenko, chapter in History and Neorealism, CUP 2010). Imlay, Talbot C. and Monica Duffy Toft, The Fog of Peace and War Planning: Military and Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty (New York: Routledge, 2006), Conclusion, pp. xxxx. Brown, Archie, Seven Years that Changed the World: Perestroika in Perspective (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), Chapters xxx. Mearsheimer, John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2001), pp Brooks and Wohlforth on the end of the Cold War Second paper due WORLD WAR III?--

6 Session 14, Tuesday, October 19: Domestic Issues T Saich, China Ezra Vogel, Deng Xaoiping (lecture in class). Session 15, Thursday, October 21: Economic Issues Summers, FT essay interdependence of US and Chinese Fallows, Atlantic article. Rosecrance, ms. Barry Eichengreen et al, Emerging Giants Chaps 1,2,3,6 Session 16, Tuesday, October 26: Historical Pressures May, Aspen paper Rosecrance 8 of 11 cases led to war. Session 17, Thursday, October 28: Failures of Empire Ferguson, Epilogue [BOOK] Session 18, Tuesday, November 2: Sectarian Dissent Toft paper to be provided Session 19, Thursday, November 4: Military Issues Carter, Ashton, China s Rise and American Military Strategy, [USE paper already in CMO database??] Lieber, Keir A. and Daryl G. Press, "The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy," Foreign Affairs, 85/2 (March/April 2006), [reqd] Kaplan piece in Foreign Affairs June, 2010 Session 20, Tuesday, November 9: Agglomerations Rosecrance-Belcher ms Rosecrance, Big is Better (FA)

7 Session 21, Tuesday, November 16: Leadership? Kershaw, ; Smith, Jean Edward, FDR (New York: Random House, 2007), Chapter 24. Session 22, Tuesday, November 18: Terrorism Allison Sarajevo over again? Nuclear Terrorism Session 23, Tuesday, November 23 : Concert? Rosecrance, Richard, A Grand Coalition and International Governance, Canadian essay (CIGI) See Also new Alexandroff book Moravcsik essay. Session 24, Tuesday, December 2: Conclusion Final paper due DECEMBER 16