Office Hours: Wednesday 1:30-3:30 Office Phone:

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1 Spring 2008 MWF 10:10-11: Phillips Hall GOVERNMENT 386: THE CAUSES OF WAR Professor Christopher Way Office: 306 White Hall Office Hours: Wednesday 1:30-3:30 Office Phone: Teaching Assistants: Maria Sperandei Geoff Wallace Course Description: Government 386 examines problems of war and peace in theoretical and historical perspective. More specifically, we will examine the causes of interstate war that is, large scale organized violence between the armed forces of states. We will seek to discover what kinds of conditions make war between states more or less likely. Topics covered include: 1) historical patterns in warfare; 2) theoretical explanations for war; 3) evaluation of the evidence for the various explanations; 4) the impact of nuclear weapons on international politics; 5) the uses and limitations of air power; 6) ethics and warfare; and, 7) international terrorism and asymmetric warfare. Causes of war may be found at several levels of analysis. Our survey will focus on theories of war at three levels of analysis: the individual and small groups, the nationstate, and the international system. At each level different theories aim to identify causes of war and discover variables that make war more or less likely. At the individual level, for example, various psychological theories of decision making and small group dynamics offer explanations for war. At the state level, the central claim is that something about the nature of particular types of states causes them to be more aggressive or war-prone than other types of states (for example, democracies vs. authoritarian states, trading vs. autarchic states, unstable vs. secure governments). Finally, explanations at the international system level focus on balance of power politics, cycles of hegemonic rise and decline, arms races, deterrence failure, and alliance patterns as possible causes of war. After surveying explanations for war at these three levels, we will end the course by discussing a number of special topics: 1) the role of nuclear weapons; 2) the uses of air power in the contemporary era; 3) ethics and warfare; and, 4) international terrorism and asymmetric warfare. Throughout the class, we will pay special attention to evaluating the empirical evidence for different theories of war: what kind of evidence counts for or against a perspective? How well does the historical record support a theory s key hypotheses? Does statistical evidence, which looks at the conditions surrounding the outbreak of dozens or hundreds of wars, support or impugn hypotheses? Is this evidence consistent with the careful casework of historians who look at particular wars in great detail? Upon completing the course, students will not only be acquainted with the main types of explanations offered

2 2 for war, but they will also be able to evaluate the evidence supporting the various explanations of the causes of war. In turn, this knowledge should help students evaluate different proposals for fostering peace and reducing conflict in the future, and for crafting national security strategies. Requirements and Grading: Requirements are two preliminary exams, a final examination, and participation in a discussion section. There is no research paper. The two prelims will each combine an in-class and a take-home section. The in-class section will consist of several explain and describe questions and a short essay question. A short paper (5 pages) makes up the take-home section of each prelim exam. The two prelims each count for 25% of your final grade, while the final exam (which is entirely in class and comprehensive) accounts for 40%. Discussion section attendance and participation makes up the remaining 10%. Final Examination Date and Time: TBA Please make sure that you can take the final examination at the designated date and time; no early exam or alternate exam time will be considered. If you cannot take the final exam at the assigned time, do not take this class. Texts: Three books are available for purchase at the Cornell Campus Store and at Kraftees (in Collegetown), and a reading packet (in two volumes) is available at K C Copy Center in Collegetown (118 Dryden Rd). The reading load averages only 92 pages per week. Yet be forewarned: some of the heaviest weeks of reading come near the end of the semester. In addition, some of the reading is heavy on concepts and short on narrative, which always makes for slower going. Try to read ahead or at least keep up, or when dead week rolls around the week won t be the only thing that is dead... The following items are required: Geoffrey Blainey. The Causes of War. Kenneth N. Waltz and Scott Sagan. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed. Michael Walzer. Just and Unjust Wars (4th Edition). Reading packet for Government 386. Course Web Page: to sign up, go to: Cornell University Policies and Regulations: Participation in this class commits students and instructors to abide by Cornell s expectations and policies regarding equal opportunity and academic integrity. Further, it implies permission from students to submit their written work to services that check for plagiarism. Each student in this course is expected to abide by the Cornell University Code of Academic Integrity. It is your responsibility to familiarize yourself with university policies regarding plagiarism and other violations of

3 3 academic integrity. In particular, please make yourself familiar with the definition of plagiarism, and be aware that you may not turn in the same piece of work (or part thereof) for credit in multiple classes, either in the same semester or while at Cornell in general. Violations of the University Code of Academic Integrity will be firmly dealt with in this class. The Code can be found on the web at (a link to the Code can also be found on the Government 386 web page): A Cornell tutorial called Recognizing and Avoiding Plagiarism can be found at: Please make yourself familiar with the contents of these documents. In addition, this instructor observes all university policies addressing racial, ethnic, gender, sexual preference, or religious discrimination and all forms of harassment; he conducts class in conformance with provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Students are expected to familiarize themselves with pertinent policies and to bring any concerns related to them to the attention of the instructor. ****************************** Course Schedule and Outline: Topic 1: Introductory Overview and Historical Patterns in Warfare 1. Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War. Chapter 1 ( The Peace that Passeth Understanding ). Topic 2: Individual and Small-Group Explanations Individual Level Explanations (personal psychology, cognitive psychology) 1. Jerrold M. Post, Saddam Hussein of Iraq: A Political Psychology Profile. Chapter from The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders (2003, University of Michigan Press), edited by Jerrold M. Post, pp

4 2. Stephen Dyson, Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair s Iraq Decision, Foreign Policy Analysis, (2006, Vol. 2.), Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War (1981, The Johns Hopkins University Press), parts chapter 5 ( Cognitive consistency and Misperception ) and of chapter 6 ( Sources of Misperception: The Role of National Self- Images ), pp and Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War. Chapter 3 ( Dreams and Delusions of a Coming War ) and chapter 9 ( War as An Accident ). 4 Small Group Level Explanations (groupthink, bureaucratic politics) 1. Irving Janis, Groupthink (1982, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company). Chapter 1 ( Introduction: Why So Many Miscalculations? ), p and chapter 2 ( A Perfect Failure: The Bay of Pigs ), pp Roderick M. Kramer, Revisiting the Bay of Pigs and Vietnam Decisions 25 Years Later: How Well Has the Groupthink Hypothesis Stood the Test of Time?, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (1998, vol. 73) pp Mark Pythian, The Perfect Intelligence Failure? U.S. Pre-War Intelligence on Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, Politics & Policy (2006, vol 34) excerpt coving pp Graham Allison, Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis, American Political Science Review (1969, vol. 63) pp Steve Yetiv, Government Politics and the Persian Gulf War, chapter 6 of Explaining Foreign Policy (2004, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press), pp Topic 3: State Level Explanations The Diversionary Theory of War 1. Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War (1981). Chapter 4 ( Brinkmanship ), pp Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War. Chapter 5 ( Death-Watch and Scapegoat Wars ) and chapter 6 ( War Chests and Pulse Beats ).

5 5 Military Organizations and War 1. Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine (1984, Ithaca: Cornell University Press). Chapter 2 ( Explaining Military Doctrine ), pp and Jack Snyder, Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and 1984, from Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, edited by Steven E. Miller, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Stephen Van Evera, (Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1991), pp Marc Trachtenberg, The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914, from Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, edited by Steven E. Miller, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Stephen Van Evera, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), pp Preliminary Examination #1: Wednesday, February 20 in class. Take-home essay handed out in class and due at the beginning of class on Monday, February 25. Democracy and War 1. Michael W. Doyle, Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Philosophy and Public Affairs (1983, vol. 12), pp Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (1993, Princeton: Princeton University Press), pp Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go To War (2005, Cambridge: MIT Press), chapters 1 and 2, pp Economic Interdependence and War 1. Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World. (New York: Basic Books, Inc.). Chapter 2 (pp ). 2. Dale C. Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War, International Security (1996, vol. 20), pp Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War. Chapter 2 ( Paradise is a Bazaar ).

6 6 Topic 4: International System Level Theory The Security Dilemma and Its Consequences: Arms Races, Offense-Defense Balance, and Deterrence 1. Robert Jervis, Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma, World Politics (1978), pp Scott D. Sagan, Origins of the Pacific War, in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb (eds.), The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989), pp Distribution of Power and Alliance Patterns as Causes of War 1. Excerpt from Kenneth N. Waltz, The Stability of a Bipolar World, Daedalus (1964, vol. 93). 2. Excerpt from Karl W. Deutsch and J. David Singer, Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability, World Politics (1964, vol.16). 3. Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War. Chapter 8 ( The Abacus of Power ) and chapter 12 ( Vendetta of the Black Sea ). 4. Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity, International Organization (1990, vol. 44), pp Power Transition and Hegemonic Rise and Decline 1. Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics. Parts of Chapter 1 (pp. 9 18), chapter 3 (pp , pp ), and all of chapters 4-5 (pp ). 2. Steve Chan, excerpts from Exploring Puzzles in Power-Transition Theory: Implications for Sino-American Relations, Security Studies, (2004, vol. 13), pp and pp

7 7 Revisionist and Status Quo States 1. Randall Schweller, excerpt from Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In, International Security (1994), pp Alastair Iain Johnston, Is China a Status Quo Power?, International Security (2003, vol. 27), pp Putting it All Together: Combining Multiple Levels of Analysis 1. John Arquilla and Maria Moyano Rasmussen, The Origins of the South Atlantic War, Journal of Latin American Studies (2001, vol. 33), pp Preliminary Examination #2: Monday, April 7, in class. Take-home essay handed out in class and due at the beginning of class on Friday, April 11. Topic 5: Nuclear Weapons Who Wants Them, Who Gets Them, and What Difference Do They Make? 1. Kenneth N. Waltz and Scott D. Sagan. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed. (2003, WW Norton & Company). Pages Barry R. Posen, What If Iraq Had Had Nuclear Weapons? in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz (editors), The Use of Force (New York, NY: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004), pp Topic 6: Ethics of War and the Conduct of War Just War Theory Reading: 1. Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars, 3rd Edition. Chapters 4-5 (pp ), 8-9 (pp ), 11 (pp ), and (pp ).

8 8 Topic 7: Air Power The Uses and Limitations of Air Power 1. John A. Warden III, Success in Modern War, Security Studies (1997/8, vol. 7, winter), pp Robert A. Pape, The Limits of Precision-Guided Air Power, Security Studies (1997/8, vol. 7, winter), pp Ward Thomas, Victory By Duress: Civilian Infrastructure as a Target in Air Campaigns, Security Studies (2006, vol 15), pp Topic 8: Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare Terrorism and War 1. Robert A. Pape, The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, American Political Science Review, (2003, vol. 87:3), Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, The Strategies of Terrorism, International Security, (2006, vol. 31), Max Abrahms, Why Terrorism Does Not Work, International Security, (2006, vol. 31), Study Period: May 4-7 Final Exam Period: May 7 16 Our Final Exam: TBA Location: TBA