GEOG 4712: Political Geography. Lecture 13: World Systems Analysis

Transcription

1 GEOG 4712: Political Geography Lecture 13: World Systems Analysis

2 genealogy of the world-systems school c a b d a. Febvre & Bloch (1922/1929) b. Braudel (1949) c. Kondratieff (1925) d. Gunder Frank (1967) e. Wallerstein (1973) f. Taylor (1982/1985) e

3 Author(s) Febvre & Bloch Braudel Kondratieff Frank Wallerstein Taylor *The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World *emphasis: technology and exchange *history: events; cyclical movements; longue duree *The Major Economic Cycles *world economic cycles regular; growth cyclical *development of underdevelopment *core and periphery Contributions *Science of Human Geography *Annales School: socio-economic forces vs. political military/diplomatic events or men *contextual, spatial, historical model of social change *sociological approach to organization of accumulation via processes of unequal exchange *world-economy; nation-state; locality *globalization and world cities vs. embedded statism

4 developmentalism errors: nation-state centric; ignores history; assumes linear growth stages expressions: economic nationalism, economic liberalism, marxism explanations: Sachs dis-advantages vs. Grant & Nijman s re-scaling

5 THE THREE ENTITIES AND MODES OF PRODUCTION IN WORLD- SYSTEMS THEORY 1. MINI- SYSTEMS: RECIPROCAL LINEAGE MODE OF PRODUCTION. 2. WORLD EMPIRES: REDISTRIBUTIVE-TRIBUTARY MODE OF PRODUCTION. (AD ) 3. WORLD- ECONOMY: CAPITALIST MODE OF PRODUCTION. (after 1500)

6 LOGISTIC WAVES material rise and decline of feudal Europe I. A: c c B: c c expansion of agricultural capitalism II. A: c c B: c c The great Wallerstein vs. Braudel debate question: Did capitalism originate among the agrarian territorial states of Northwestern Europe or the merchant-bankers in Italian citystates?

7 3 Basic Elements of the World System 1) A Single Capitalist World Economy Capitalist mode of production: Workers do not consume all they produce. Instead, production is for exchange in a market, which determines the price of a commodity through supply and demand. 2) A System of Multiple States a) states protect those without power (working class) b) states protect those with power (capitalist class) c) political fragmentation: no price fixing, no monopolies 3) A 3- Tier Hierarchy/ 2 Processes a) core: hi-tech, high-wage, advanced mix b) semi-periphery: mix of core and peripheral processes; NO separate processes c) periphery: low-tech, low-wage, simple mix There is a global division of labor. This means that, although all places are part of the same global capitalist economy, different places play different economic roles. This is the geography of global capitalism.

8 Four Processes of A-phase 1) New technology/lead innovation sector concentrated regionally 2) Increased production efficiency/advantages 3) Expansion in centralized investment planning under high profits 4) Financialization and/or free trade regimes

9 THE FOUR KONDRATIEFF CYCLES KEY INNOVATIONS I. A. 1780/ /17 COTTON/STEAM B. 1814/ /51 II. A. 1844/ /75 STEEL/RAIL B. 1870/ /96 III. A. 1890/ /20 GAS/ELECTRIC; B. 1914/ /45 STEAMSHIPS IV. A. 1940/ /73 (PETRO)CHEM/ B. 1967/ /92 MOTORCARS V. A. 1989/92? ? HI-TECH/BIO- TECH/IT

10 3 basic elements of Wallerstein s World-System 1) A Single Capitalist World Economy Capitalist mode of production: Workers do not consume all they produce. Instead, production is for exchange in a market, which determines the price of a commodity through supply and demand. 2) A System of Multiple States a) states protect those without power (working class) b) states protect those with power (capitalist class) c) political fragmentation: no price fixing, no monopolies 3) A 3- Tier Hierarchy/ 2 Processes a) core: hi-tech, high-wage, advanced mix b) semi-periphery: mix of core and peripheral processes; NO separate processes c) periphery: low-tech, low-wage, simple mix There is a global division of labor. This means that, although all places are part of the same global capitalist economy, different places play different economic roles. This is the geography of global capitalism.

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12 4 Processes of A + B Phases A-phase processes 1) New technology/lead innovation sector concentrated regionally 2) Increased production efficiency/commercial advantages to merchants 3) Expansion in centralized investment planning under high profits 4) Financialization and/or free trade regimes B-phase processes 1) Production costs reduced by relocation 2) Mechanization yields overproduction/overaccumulation 3) Economic disparities rise; unemployment results in unrest 4) Flux period with poor profits/underinvestment; shifts in production

13 Hegemonies + Cycles, I country hosting innovation gains initial advantage CAN lead to hegemony 1) Major innovation drives political power; starts K-wave 2) Initial production/industrial advantage 3) Trade/commercial advantage 4) Financial advantage 5) Political and cultural dominance Wallerstein s Short Hegemonies 1) Dutch Half-Century, ) UK Half-Century, ) US Quarter-Century, Based on economic lead, which enables political and military power. Not an absolute measure; based on relative gap with competitors.

14 Hegemonic Cycles

15 Modelski s Powers + Cycles Modelski + Wallerstein 1) Method: Both are lumpers : impose order on the past and look for patterns; splitters : celebrate specificity and uniqueness 2) Dynamics: Both argue that the rise and fall of great powers occurs in a cyclical pattern; both see the world-system as developing in cycles. 3) Ambitions: Both try to construct a general framework of modern world history. 4) Origins: Both see the modern world-system as beginning around ) Revisions: Both have revised their models against recent global changes. Modelski vs. Wallerstein 1) Objects to the political-economy approach 2) Argues economic determinism obscures political processes 3) Uses 100-year cycles of world power to explain hegemony 4) Sees naval strength as key to acquiring global leadership. 5) Claims geopolitics must be understood separately from geoeconomics

16 Modelski s Metrics + Model Conditions of Global Power 1) Ocean Location 2) Strong Economy 3) Powerful Navy 4) Strong Government 5) No Civil Strife 6) Index of Power a) SPa = Seapower of Country b) SPt = Seapower of World World Powers 1) Military: a world power initially has 50% of the naval resources available to all global powers 2) Global power: SPa/SPt >.5 a) DEF: control either 10% of all capital ships b) or 5% of total naval expenditures of great powers 3) Political-military complex: a world power is a state that engages in +50% of order keeping functions in global system.

17 Modelski s Cycle of Power 1) Begins in a period with weak global organizational structure; degenerates into warfare between the great powers. 2) One state emerges from this core war with its navy relatively intact. 3) As the only world power, this state orders the political system. 4) World power experiences peak in decade immediately following the core war. 5) Other great powers begin rebuilding fleets; world power s relative share of global naval resources diminishes. 6) Stages: unipolar > bipolar > multipolar > weakly organized system > war

18 Hegemonies + Cycles, II

19 1) AGENDAS Conclusions a) Modelski promotes US foreign policy; b) Wallerstein attacks global capitalism. 2) IDEOLOGY a) Modelski s ideas in realist tradition of political science; b) Wallerstein s analysis in the radical structuralist tradition of social sciences. 3) APPROACH a) Modelski is inductive, b) Wallerstein is deductive. 4) FACTORS a) Modelski focuses on political, b) Wallerstein on economic. 5) HEGEMONY a) Modelski: Naval power index, long-lasting concentration of political power b) Wallerstein: Innovations, rare + short lived concentration of economic power