GEOG 4712: Political Geography. Lecture 17: World Systems Analysis

Transcription

1 GEOG 4712: Political Geography Lecture 17: World Systems Analysis Outline 1) Wally World, re-visited 2) Waves + Cycles 3) Hegemonies, re-visited 4) Modelskiʼs Models 5) Modelskiʼs Metrics 6) Concluding Comparisons 1

2 3 basic elements of Wallersteinʼs World-System 1) A Single Capitalist World Economy Capitalist mode of production: Workers do not consume all they produce. Instead, production is for exchange in a market, which determines the price of a commodity through supply and demand. 2) A System of Multiple States a) states protect those without power (working class) b) states protect those with power (capitalist class) c) political fragmentation: no price fixing, no monopolies 3) A 3- Tier Hierarchy/ 2 Processes a) core: hi-tech, high-wage, advanced mix b) semi-periphery: mix of core and peripheral processes; NO separate processes c) periphery: low-tech, low-wage, simple mix There is a global division of labor. This means that, although all places are part of the same global capitalist economy, different places play different economic roles. This is the geography of global capitalism. 4 Processes of A + B Phases A-phase processes 1) New technology/lead innovation sector concentrated regionally 2) Increased production efficiency/commercial advantages to merchants 3) Expansion in centralized investment planning under high profits 4) Financialization and/or free trade regimes B-phase processes 1) Production costs reduced by relocation 2) Mechanization yields overproduction/overaccumulation 3) Economic disparities rise; unemployment results in unrest 4) Flux period with poor profits/underinvestment; shifts in production 2

3 Hegemonies + Cycles, I country hosting innovation gains initial advantage CAN lead to hegemony 1) Major technological innovation drives political power; launches K-wave 2) Initial production/industrial advantage 3) Trade/commercial advantage 4) Financial advantage 5) Political and cultural dominance Wallersteinʼs Short Hegemonies 1. Dutch Half-Century, UK Half-Century, US Quarter-Century, Based on economic lead, which enables political and military power. Not an absolute measure, but based on relative gap with competitors. Kondratieff Waves FOUR KONDRATIEFF CYCLES KEY INNOVATIONS I. A. 1780/ /17 COTTON;STEAM B. 1814/ /51 II. A. 1844/ /75 STEEL;RAIL B. 1870/ /96 III. A. 1890/ /20 GAS/ELECTRIC; B. 1914/ /45 STEAMSHIPS IV. A. 1940/ /73 (PETRO)CHEM; B. 1967/ /92 MOTORCARS V. A. 1989/92? ? (HI/BIO)TECH; IT 3

4 Hegemonic Cycles Modelskiʼs Powers + Cycles Modelski + Wallerstein 1) Method: Both are ʻlumpersʼ: impose order on the past and look for patterns; ʻsplittersʼ: celebrate specificity and uniqueness 2) Dynamics: Both argue that the rise and fall of great powers occurs in a cyclical pattern; both see the world-system as developing in cycles. 3) Ambitions: Both try to construct a general framework of modern world history. 4) Origins: Both see the modern world-system as beginning around ) Revisions: Both have revised their models against recent global changes. Modelski vs. Wallerstein 1) Objects to the political-economy approach 2) Argues economic determinism obscures political processes 3) Uses 100-year cycles of world power to explain hegemony 4) Sees naval strength as key to acquiring global leadership. 5) Claims ʻgeopoliticsʼ must be understood separately from ʻgeoeconomicsʼ 4

5 Conditions of Global Power 1) Ocean Location 2) Strong Economy 3) Powerful Navy 4) Strong Government 5) No Civil Strife 6) Index of Power a) SPa = Seapower of Country b) SPt = Seapower of World Modelskiʼs Metrics + Model World Powers 1) Military: a world power initially has 50% of the naval resources available to all global powers 2) Global power: SPa/SPt >.5 a) DEF: control either 10% of all capital ships b) or 5% of total naval expenditures of great powers 3) Political-military complex: a world power is a state that engages in +50% of ʻorder keepingʼ functions in global system. Modelskiʼs Cycle of Power 1) Begins in a period with weak global organizational structure; degenerates into warfare between the great powers. 2) One state emerges from this core war with its navy relatively intact. 3) As the only world power, this state orders the political system. 4) World power experiences peak in decade immediately following the core war. 5) Other great powers begin rebuilding fleets; world powerʼs relative share of global naval resources diminishes. 6) Stages: unipolar > bipolar > multipolar > weakly organized system > war 5

6 Hegemonies + Cycles, II Conclusions 1) AGENDAS a) Modelski promotes US foreign policy; b) Wallerstein attacks global capitalism. 2) IDEOLOGY a) Modelskiʼs ideas in realist tradition of political science; b) Wallersteinʼs analysis in the radical structuralist tradition of social sciences. 3) APPROACH a) Modelski is inductive, b) Wallerstein is deductive. 4) FACTORS a) Modelski focuses on political, b) Wallerstein on economic. 5) HEGEMONY a) Modelski: Naval power index, long-lasting concentration of political power b) Wallerstein: Innovations, rare + short lived concentration of economic power 6