Presentation of the French defence prospective document Strategic Horizons

Transcription

1 Presentation of the French defence prospective document Strategic Horizons «To the person who does not know where he wants to go, there is no favorable wind» Seneca Col. Marc de FRITSCH Directorate for Strategic Affairs French Ministry of Defense

2 I) Strategic Horizons : why, how? French White Paper of Defense and National Security, 2008: Horizon-scanning There is a need to develop a horizon-scanning approach by the Government, in universities and in defence and security circles, in order to anticipate emerging risks and threats, opportunities for French and European interests, and to guide preventive policies and assets in a timely fashion.

3 I) Strategic Horizons : why, how? Third edition. Modesty. 3 major goals : 1) Enlighten the technical and operational work of the Defense Procurement Agency (DGA); 2) Formalise in an unique document the common and unified prospective vision of the MoD; 3) Be the vehicle of the French strategic vision abroad.

4 Seven thematic chapters : 1) International relations 2) Threats, Conflict and Military Operations 3) Economics 4) Demographics and International Migration 5) Resources and Environment 6) Health 7) Technological and Societal Changes + one part dedicated to regional approaches Link for the English version:

5 II) Strategic Horizons : main conclusions Three main trends can be identified 1 the end of western domination 2 the acceleration of globalisation 3 ever-increasing instability and volatility

6 A The end of the western domination In 2050, in terms of GDP : N 1 = China N 2 = US N 3 = India

7 A The end of the western domination Comparison chart showing deployment of American forces worldwide: (blue) (beige)

8 A The end of western domination GDP and Defence Budget the growing ambition of South-Asia emerging countries

9 B the acceleration of globalisation A stock market in Karachi on 10 August 2011

10 III) Strategic horizons : main conclusions B the acceleration of globalisation The second globalisation = based on the growing integration of the emerging nations into the world system. Trade explosion. Technological revolutions. Source of growth and tensions. Both political, economical, cultural implications A growing demand for international regulation. Constellation of Galileo satellites

11 B the acceleration of globalisation Broadband, Internet users and telephony by continent ( )

12 B the acceleration of globalisation Transnational threats are growing

13 B the acceleration of globalisation A reduction in poverty accompanying a strong growth of inequalities Source of tensions

14 3 A period of geopolitical transition marked by a growing instability and volatility A real risk of a strategic vacuum. A risk of extending areas of fragility. Changes in conflict nature. The growth of transnational and asymmetric threats.

15 4 Implications for the French defence system Adapting defence to the new strategic context. Preparing for future military engagements. Ensuring industrial and technological autonomy.

16 III) Strategic Horizons : international comparisons Strategic Horizons / Global Trends 2030 Common points : both anticipate a relative decline of the United States of America and the European Union. both anticipate the development of relative new and incomplete powers. both anticipate a shifting of power and influence towards Asia. they consider that globalisation will continue, bringing both opportunities and vulnerabilities. They both identify a risk of power vacuum.

17 III) Strategic Horizons : international comparisons Strategic Horizons / Global Trends 2030 Differences of opinion : French hypothesis v. American hypothesis: emergence of an oligopolistic international system. France should diversify its alliances (Brazil, India ) Convergence of the Chinese and American interests enabling a deeper cooperation Global Trends 2030 is more focused on America and is adapted to an American reader.

18 Conclusion Strategic Horizons is the result of an open and collegial work implying all the services belonging to the French Ministry of Defence. It is a consensual document reflecting the French strategic thinking. Three main trends are identified by the report : the end of the western domination / the acceleration of globalisation / the ever-increasing instability and volatility. It enables a clearer understanding of the situation and is a precious help for the Ministry of Defence decision making process. Our major allies, namely the Americans, share the report s major conclusions

19 Thank you for your time and interest. Future begins now after the end of this sentence