Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measurement efficiency problem

Transcription

1 Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics. ISSN Volume 10, Number 6 (2014), pp Research India Publications Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measurement efficiency problem Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod , Russia, Nigni Novgorod, pr. Gagarina, 23, 2 Abstract: This article attempts to analyze the results of studies of political stability in Russia for the period of eight years made by one of the typical index methodologies named "The Fragile States Index"established by The Fund for Peace (USA) and the influential American magazine "Foreign Policy". As an alternative to such methods, the authors propose their own mathematical model to calculate the level of political stability, based on the author's socio-energy approach (SEA). As a result, the given comparison of the models leads us to conclusion that the prognostic nonlinear dynamic model (albeit using statistics) are more independent and politically neutral tools in the evaluation of the state and power parameters Keywords: Socio-energy approach, the Fund for Peace, political stability, nonlinear dynamics, state This work was supported by grants from the Board President of the Russian Federation (Project MK ). This work was partially supported by a grant (agreement of 27 August V between PWS and RF UNN). 1. INTRODUCTION The question about how to obtain unambiguous quantification of the level of political stability in states is among the vital political issues of applied value. The necessity of objective assessment of the degree of state stability is evident to adjust the external policy and foreign business investment projects (in relation to a given country). At the same time, the results of determining the level of political stability of a particular state, obtained on the basis of adequate evidence-based practices, obviously find their Paper code: Gjpam-B

2 906 Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. application in the expert, analytical and scientific community and become a significant factor in the development and adoption of the most important political decisions, taking into account political and military risks that ultimately have a positive impact both on strengthening security of individual states and stability of the international political system as a whole. Currently, the research on the state systems stability generate a number of problems associated with both inaccuracy and ambiguity of terminological apparatus in this area, as well as empirically unobservable nature of the process of political stability. These circumstances make it very difficult to formalize the notion of "political stability" and create a universal methodology to assess it. Certain attempts to create such methodology are undertaken by a number of international commercial and non-governmental organizations and information and analytical centers with varying degrees of success. These include such organizations as: The World Bank, The Center for Systemic Peace, The Economist Intelligence Unit, The Fund for Peace and several others. The basis for valuation techniques of political stability is complex comparative political stability ratings for most of the countries. Experts divide all index methodology of political stability assessment into three main groups [1]: 1) The research ratings and rankings for policy decisions. This category includes the American research project "POLITY IV" index, describing the transformation of political institutes, The World Bank annual survey "The Worldwide Governance Indicators", "Failed States Index" the Fund for Peace; 2) The economic index of political risk evaluation. These include Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI), the Future Group index of Political Stability Prospects, "Political Risk Index" of the Maplecroft company, the rating indices of such agencies as Fitch Ratings, Standard &Poors, Moody's, and others; 3) Specialized indexes that are not directly related to the assessment of political stability, but estimating data that indirectly affects it. A typical example of such an index methodology is "Political Risk and Civil Liberties Indices" from Freedom House. Despite the rather large variety of index techniques most of them share one common characteristic. What we are talking about is sometimes subjective nature of these techniques because of their primal orientation on the expert assessments. As a rule, each expert fills a certain questionnaire form and exposes certain scores for the factors of political stability in a country, and those scores, according to the authors of the methodology, should be considered while calculation of the final indicator of the political stability level. Even though those estimates are subject to a certain mathematical processing (using primarily statistical methods), but they are no longer able to completely eliminate their original subjectivity and political bias of the expert community. To give you an idea, the majority of experts favor the aforementioned index techniques are mainly from the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and whose opinion (by assigning a greater statistical

3 Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measure-ment efficiency problem 907 weight) makes a decisive contribution to the total value of the political stability index. Taking into account this fact, it seems quite reasonable to test the hypothesis about the political involvement of any of the above mentioned methods of assessing the level of political stability in the Russian Federation. This article will attempt to analyze the results of studies of political stability in Russia for the period of eight years conducted by one of the typical index methodologies - "The Fragile States Index", created by the Fund for Peace (USA) and the influential American magazine "Foreign Policy". As an alternative to such methods, the authors propose their own mathematical model to calculate the level of political stability, based on the author's socio-energy approach (SEA) [2]. 2. THE FRAGILE STATES INDEX The Fragile States Index is a study of the two leading American political organizations: The Fund for Peace and the Foreign Policy journal, led since 2005 [3]. Earlier the research project was called The Failed States Index and renamed only this year. The index value reflects the degree of a state leadership ability to control the territorial integrity of a country, as well as general economic and political situation in it. The basis of the research methodology of the index is a combination of content analysis of many different informational materials using "Conflict Assessment System Tool". The calculation of the final index includes monitoring and evaluation of the twelve main indicators (criteria of state"fragility"), divided into three categories: social, economic, and military-political. Social Indicators: 1) The level of demographic burden (Demografic Pressures-DP). 2) The level of migration of refugees and / or displaced people (Refugees and IDPs - REF) 3) The presence of disaffected social groups (Group Grievance - GG). 4) Permanent migration or "brain drain" (Human Flight and Brain Drain-HF). Economic indicators: 5) Uneven Economic Development (UED). 6) Poverty and economic decline (ECO) Military and political indicators: 7) The Level of legitimacy (decriminalization) of government agencies (State Legitimacy - SL) 8) The availability and quality of public services (Public Services - PS). 9) The level of violations of the rule of law and human rights (Human Rights and Rule of Law-HR). 10) The level of influence of the state security apparatus (Security Apparatus- SEC). 11) The level of elites influences (Factionalized Elites - FE). 12) The degree of interference in the internal affairs of external political actors (External Intervention-EXT).

4 908 Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. To calculate the index for each indicator examines five key state institutions are examined (government, army, police, judiciary and civil service), which allows to evaluate totally more than 100 sub-indicators. During one year program analyzes a significant amount of various information materials placed in the public domain, and the total number of positive and negative assessments of each indicator is calculated using content analysis. Next, the Fund for Peace experts analyzes the overall data for each country and calculates the final Fragile State Index. The methodology applies the range of real numbers from 0 (the highest degree of stability, the minimal risks) to 10 (lowest degree of stability, the maximum risks of maximum). The final score is the sum of all indicators and can vary from 0 to 120 points. 3. RESEARCH RESULTS The 2014 research report covers 178 countries. All countries depending on the outcome of the index are divided into four color groups: 1. Red (Alert) - the state with the highest level of instability (the critical level of risk). 2. Orange (Warning) - the state with a high level of instability (dangerous level of risk). 3. Yellow (Stable) - States with above-average level of stability (low risk). 4. Green (Sustainable) - the state with a high level of stability (no risk). The final world map with a color ranking of countries is presented in Fig. 1. The first place in the world in terms of political instability in 2014 is occupied by South Sudan with points (recall that the maximum possible value of the fragility index is 120 points). In addition to Sudan the top-five includes the problem countries in Africa, such as Somalia, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan. According to experts of the Fund for Peace, a high place in the final ranking of these states is due to the ongoing military actions on their territory, extreme poverty of the population and completely undeveloped economy. The African continent remains the leader among the disadvantaged regions of the world, thus its countries are mostly in the "red zone" of the world map. The next group of countries with a high level of instability (orange color on the world map) combines the states, which are from 17 to 109 in the overall rankings. The first country of this group is Nigeria, the last is Suriname. The ratinf experts also attribute to this group the Russian Federation (see below). China, India, Africa and some states of the South American continent are also included. The third group of fairly stable countries is yellow and includes 55 states (110 to 165 in the ranking). The United States and most of Western Europe are in this group. Interestingly, the island nation of Samoa heads the group this year. And finally, the most prosperous and stable countries are marked in green and occupy seats from 166 to 178. The presence of the Scandinavian countries is quite understandable (Sweden, Norway, Denmark), and Finland, which occupies the last place, became the most prosperous and stable country in 2014.

5 Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measure-ment efficiency problem 909 Fig.1. The final map of states in accordance with The Fragile State Index Fig.2. Indicator values rankings of the Russian Federation in 2014.

6 910 Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. We shall now consider the place of the Russian Federation in this rating. As we mentioned above, Russia was in the second (orange) group of countries with high levels of political instability and occupies the 85th position in the overall ranking. On adjacent positions are Jordan and Venezuela (83-84 place) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (85 place). The first thing we would like to draw attention to during the analysis of the results of the rating is the fact that Russia was ultimately a higher score than the example of Ghana (108th place) or Suriname (109). Further, special attention deserves the case of Ukraine, which, despite the political crisis, coup d'etat and civil war actually takes 133 place and is located in the "yellow" group of countries with high levels of political stability. We should now refer to more detailed data on the rating of the Russian Federation and analyze the main indicators. Fig. 2 shows the general information on the main indicators of Russia in The final value of the index - 76, 5 points, the final place in the ranking - 85, the average indicator score (maximum 10), the difference with last year's value rating Indicator values: DP, REF, HF, PS and EXT are close to the average estimated range and 5 are at a moderate level. Compared with 2013 annual fluctuations of their values in range of 0.3 points, and five years have not changed by more than 1.6 points. Noteworthy sufficiently low value (3.6 points) indicator of poverty and economic recession (Poverty and Economic Decline - ECO), and in comparison with 2013 this indicator increased by 0.1 points. In light of the apparent slowdown of economic growth in Russia, aggravated by Western economic sanctions this circumstance cannot but raise questions. The indicator value of having disgruntled social groups (Group Grievance - GG) is extremely high (8.5 points) and says, according to experts of the rating, the growth of dissent in Russia. This fact again raises questions, given the data of opinion polls, in which the rating of the incumbent president VV Putin is on a consistently high level and even tends to increase [4]. The situation is similar with level indicator violations of human rights and the rule of law (Human Rights and Rule of Law - HR). Its value is even higher points and five years has increased by 0.4 points. A similar trend and level indicators influence state security apparatus (Security Apparatus - SEC) and the level of influence of elites (Factionalized Elites - FE) - 8,6 and 8.1 points, respectively, and again positive growth.

7 Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measure-ment efficiency problem 911 Fig.3. Dynamics of changes in the socio-economic indicators in Russia in years. Ascending part - the aggravation of problems downstream - improvement. Fig. 4.Dynamics of changes in the military and political figures of Russia in years.ascending part - the aggravation of problems downstream - improvement.

8 912 Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. More visually dynamic change of values of social and economic indicators can be seen in Fig.3, and the military and political indicators in Fig.4. The abovementioned indices GG, HR, SEC and SE in the graphs show steady growth, indicating a worsening of Russia's problems in their respective fields. More sharp growth indicator values begins after 2012 (the year of the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency), which is especially noticeable on the charts and Group Grievance Security Apparatus. Fig. 5.provides an overall score for each indicator visualization compared with the mean scores of other countries. Fig. 5. In comparison with the average for the entire set of countries studied (dashed GlobalAverage) mentioned indikatoryrossii (GG, HR, SEC, FE), and takzheindikator SL (decriminalization) government agencies) have higher values (significant run-up lines on the graph). In comparison with the average indicators of the same region, the situation is even more sad (run more lines). Thus, the key social and political and military indicators in Russia, according to experts of the rating, have extremely high values, which clearly describes the negative trends in the socio-political sphere of the country and its negative trend. Factors that negatively affect the position of Russia, experts Fund for Peace include political instability in the North Caucasus, the instability of economic devel-

9 Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measure-ment efficiency problem 913 opment, the low efficiency of the state apparatus, a high degree of criminalization of society, as well as increasing pressure on civil society and the opposition. These reasons in their correlation with the dynamics of the trends identified above are obviously controversial and obvious signs of political bias. The authors believe that the index methodology is a good example of a subjective evaluation biased political situation in Russia, based on the rejection of the fact of the output of the Russian Federation on the leading role in the international arena. For a more precise definition of the level of political stability necessary for Russia to a much greater extent rely on the actual quantitative data of objective indicators (such as the number of protests and their numbers) than on "Perceptions Index" Western experts in conjunction with a closed software. As an alternative, the authors proposed a socio-energy approach and the corresponding mathematical method of estimation of the political stability of the state. 4. SOCIO-ENERGY APPROACH (SEA) In an author's socio-energy approach (hereafter SEP) is a systematic approach and look at the social system in terms of energy [5]. This view allows you to submit intra and non-system processes like change or redistribution of energy within and between systems. Author's model is based on several basic parameters, the main of which is the concept of "social energy" or simply "energy" - E. Here, this concept implies a quantity characterizing the potential of the social system do the work. The launched earlier model of the communication field with the socio-energy approach [4] is able to simulate the particular case of the development of the social system, the evolutionary transition from one stable state to another, but in the modeling of short-term qualitative changes its capabilities obviously not enough. It will not be fully present here, you can read more to see it on the links above, but remember that Holyst J.A., Kacperski K., Schweiter F. offered a convenient model of public opinion on the basis of representation of interaction between individuals, as Brownian motion [6-9]. Applying socio-energy approach and moving away from the faceless to the coefficients К si - К s scientific development - social and spiritual activity, it had to make some significant changes. In this process, the individuals involved, interacting through fields of communication: This field takes into account the spatial distribution of the coefficients and distributed in society, simulating the information transfer. However, we must understand that we are talking about the social space that has physical symptoms, but in terms of development of information tools is clear that the impact of one individual to another optionally implement, being physically close. Thus, this space - a multidimensional, "socio-physical", characterizing the possibility of an individual one "reach" their communications field to another, ie to influence him, his odds and the ability to move. It is understood that, in addition, the actual, physical space coordinates, there will be

10 914 Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. social and coordinates (describing the social position of the individual and take into account the permeability of the information society). The spatio-temporal variation of the field of communication is taken into account by the equation: Where, - Dirac function - δ - function that determines the strength of influence of a particular individual to another individual, independent of their coefficients. N - number of individuals D h - diffusion coefficient characterizing the propagation of the field of communication. Each individual, who is at the point xi, continuously contributing to the field in accordance with the terms of their coefficients (which also determines the influence and power of the individual to the surrounding individuals, and the radius of influence). Golf h_k (x, t) carries an impact on the individual I as follows. Being at the point xi, the individual falls under the impact of the communication field of another individual (or several). Depending on the difference of the coefficients and the coefficients acting on the individuals, it can react in the following ways: 1. Changes the value of its coefficients under the influence of other individuals 2. Moves toward the region where the difference between the coefficients relatively minimal at this time. 5. MODELLING Simulation of designer EPAs was held in the MatLab The aim was to trace and display the dynamics of the main factors in Russia on the basis of specific statistics. The first graph Fig.6.displays the dynamics of the system efficiency Ef, ie coefficient showing the change of the main coefficients Ksi - iks- scientific development of social and spiritual activities. I it is defined as: it figures the year under review, and - Indicators The dashed line shows the general trend. Not difficult to notice the characteristic increase the overall effectiveness of stability in the country, with a sharp drop in the values of the 90 years after 2004 (which was typical of the period of strong saturation of the economy with money from the sale of oil and hence the effectiveness of the fall), the fall of the values resulting from the crisis 2008 and the presidency after DA Medvedev. (2)

11 Assessment of political stability in Russia: Measure-ment efficiency problem 915 The following graph shows the change in the coefficient Kr - leadership, i.e., directly coefficient subsystem power. In Figure 7, we also see a consistent tendency to increase the effectiveness of the management system in Russia, which has a positive effect on the stability of the whole. The greatest periods of growth are associated with adverse external conditions, post-crisis, post-war, etc. Fig. 6. Change the main factors in Russia gg. Fig. 7.The change of the subsystem power stability in Russia gg.

12 916 Petukhov A.Y. and Krasnitskiy N. V. 6. CONCLUSION: Thus, we see that a comparison of valuation stability (fragility) of the state system in Russia has led us to different results. The model proposed by the "Fund for Peace" and his colleagues, gives a relatively negative assessment of stability in Russia. The results of the above countries, even apparently in a state of political and economic crisis (eg, Ukraine). Politicized assessments do these ratings another instrument of political pressure. Our model is more accurate in terms of political analysis evaluates the existing reality and is able to make the same prediction for the development of the situation, making it more efficient in some particular cases. As a result of this comparison of models leads us to conclude that the prognostic nonlinear dynamic model (albeit using statistical data) are more independent and politically neutral tool in the evaluation of the parameters of power and the state. Reference 1. Barov S.A Comparative international ratings and indices as assessment tools in political stability: pro et contra. Political stability: methodology comenforcement investigations, analysis of regional problematic areas: collective monography. Zubkov. A.I., Ivanov V.G. Chihrinova A.I., Yaroslavtseva A.O. Ed. V.G. Ivanov. M. RUDN, p Petukhov A.Y Modeling the social and political processes in the information war. Socio-energy approach // Fractal Simulation, T. n.1,p Fragile States Index Access modehttp://ffp.statesindex.org/ 4. FOM: Putin's rating is at a consistently high level. October 30, TASS. Access mode: 5. Petukhov A.Y Modelling the manipulation of consciousness of the masses in the political process by means of the communication field.bulletin of the Nizhny Novgorod State University (transliteration - VestnikNigegorodskogoGosudarstvennogoUniversiteta).Nizhny Novgorod, vol.6. p J.A. Holyst, K. Kasperski, F. Schweitger Phase transitions in social impact models of opinion formation. Physica.2000 v.a285. p Petukhov A.Y.and I. D. Komarov PROCESS OF INCORPORATION OF TAIWAN. Prediction using mathematical models.world Applied Sciences Journal, Issue 27 (Education, Law, Economics, Language and Communication),, 13, p DOI: /idosi.wasj elelc Petukhov A.Y. (2014). Threshold effects in the social and political processes.social-energy approach. World Applied Sciences Journal, Volume 30 (10), p DOI: