Review of Ofcom list of major political parties for elections taking place on 7 May 2015 Statement

Transcription

1 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Statement Statement Publicatin date: 16 March 215

2 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Abut this dcument This dcument sets ut Ofcm s decisin n the s called list f majr parties fr the purpses f the General Electin and ther electins being held in May 215.

3 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Cntents Sectin Annex Page 1 Executive Summary 1 2 Intrductin 4 3 Relevant evidence relied upn by Ofcm 12 4 Our assessment f the evidence and decisin 28 5 Ofcm s prcedures fr determinatin f disputes under Ofcm s rules n Party Plitical and Referendum Bradcasts 38 Page 1 Finalised Ofcm list f majr parties 42 2 Evidence f past electral supprt and updated evidence f current supprt 43 3 Finalised Ofcm prcedures fr determinatin f disputes under Ofcm's rules n Party Plitical and Referendum Bradcasts 61 4 Respndents views n ur Cnsultatin prpsals 64

4 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Sectin 1 1 Executive Summary 1.1 This dcument sets ut ur decisin n the cmpsitin f the s called majr parties list in advance f the General Electin, English lcal gvernment electins (in sme parts f England) and English mayral electins (in five areas) 1 being held n 7 May 215. What is ur rle? 1.2 There is a lng-standing ban n advertisements f a plitical nature n televisin r radi in the UK. It has been argued that allwing plitical advertising in the bradcast media wuld give an advantage t the best financed candidates r parties. 1.3 Party electin bradcasts ( PEBs ) are, therefre, designed t ffset the differential ability f parties t attract campaign funds. This free airtime is prvided prir t electins (and als n a seasnal basis utside electin campaigns) and allws qualifying parties an pprtunity t deliver their messages directly t the electrate thrugh the bradcast media. 1.4 T help maintain the effectiveness f this system, Parliament, thugh the Cmmunicatins Act 23 has charged Ofcm with the duty f making rules regarding the allcatin, length and frequency f PEBs and identifying the bradcasters that are required t transmit PEBs. Ofcm discharges this duty thrugh ur rules n Party Plitical and Referendum Bradcasts ( the PPRB Rules ). 1.5 Separately, Parliament requires Ofcm t develp rules with respect t bradcasters wider editrial cverage f electins. Ofcm discharges this duty thrugh the Ofcm Bradcasting Cde ( the Cde ). What is the effect f ur decisin? 1.6 The majr parties list is imprtant because the PPRB Rules and the Bradcasting Cde impse certain bligatins n bradcasters by reference t the plitical parties n this list. 1.7 The PPRB Rules prescribe the minimum number f party electin bradcasts ( PEBs ) that must be affrded t certain parties by public service bradcasters 2. This is an exceptinal example f Ofcm impsing pre-bradcast requirements in relatin t material t be bradcast. Parties with a minimum number f candidates standing in the General Electin will receive at least ne PEB, whereas the majr parties must be ffered at least tw PEBs. Beynd these minimum requirements, the bradcasters are free t make their wn judgements as t the number r PEBs ffered t each party. 1 Due t take place in: Bedfrd; Leicester; Mansfield; Middlesbrugh; and Trbay. These are a frm f English lcal electin. In this Statement we treat the 215 English lcal electins and 215 English mayral electins tgether when reviewing the list f majr parties fr the purpses f the English lcal electins. 2 Reginal Channel 3 services; Channel 4; Channel 5, Classic FM; Talksprt; and, Abslute Radi AM have t carry PEBs fr the General Electin. In additin, PEBs must be bradcast by reginal Channel 3 services fr the English lcal gvernment electins (Als see ftnte 11). 1

5 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May Separately, Sectin Six f the Cde impses an bligatin n bradcasters t give due weight in their editrial cverage during the electin perid t cverage f the majr parties. Bradcasters must als cnsider giving apprpriate cverage t parties and candidates nt n the majr parties list. The Cde therefre influences, but des nt determine, the balance in a bradcaster s editrial cverage f the electins. Ofcm assesses cmpliance with the Cde n a pst-bradcast basis. 1.9 Hwever, it is imprtant t make clear that this decisin des nt determine wh shuld be invited t participate in any party leaders debates ahead f the General Electin. This is a matter fr the relevant bradcasters, in cnjunctin with the plitical parties cncerned. Ofcm has n rle in, and has nt been invlved in, determining the parties invited, structure, frmat r style f any bradcast leaders debates that might take place. 1.1 Als, this decisin des nt dictate the exact number f PEBs nr the exact level f editrial cverage that that each plitical party will receive. The fact a party is n the majr parties list des nt mean it autmatically receives the same number f PEBs, r exactly the same amunt f editrial cverage, during an electin campaign as ther majr parties. During the last General Electin the number f PEBs allcated by the bradcasters t parties n the list ranged frm tw t five In additin, if a party is nt n the list f majr parties, this des nt mean it is prevented frm receiving PEBs during an electin campaign, as parties that are nt n the list can autmatically qualify fr at least ne PEB if they are cntesting ne sixth r mre f the seats in a natin in a General Electin. In additin, such parties can receive additinal PEBs, but this is primarily a matter fr the relevant bradcasters t determine at their discretin. Our Decisin 1.12 Having undertaken an assessment f the relevant evidence, and fllwing cnsideratin f respnses t ur cnsultatin prpsals, we have decided that: the existing majr parties acrss Great Britain and in each f Sctland, Wales and Nrthern Ireland, shuld remain n the list; in additin, we have added the UK Independence Party t the list f majr parties in England and Wales fr the purpses f the General Electin and English lcal (and mayral) electins being held n 7 May 215; and we have decided that the Green Party (including the Scttish Green Party) and Traditinal Uninist Vice shuld nt be added t the list f majr parties n this ccasin In making this decisin, we have sught t balance the freedm f expressin f plitical parties and candidates and the imprtance f access t bradcast time in the cntext f the electin with the freedm f expressin f the bradcasters, which means ur interventin shuld g n further than is necessary We have therefre based ur decisin n bjective and verifiable evidence cnsisting f: Evidence f plitical parties actual perfrmance in significant frms f electin. Evidence f actual perfrmance in previus electins is an imprtant factr in ur assessment as this is actual evidence f hw citizens have exercised their vte 2

6 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 and it avids any differences between hw peple say they will vte and hw they d vte. We have placed less weight n the mre histrical data frm tw electins ag and, cnsequently, we have placed mre weight n the evidence f perfrmance at the last General Electin in 21 (which reflects each party s current standing in Parliament) and ther imprtant frms f electin since that time. Evidence f current supprt fr plitical parties, as indicated by pinin pll data. Evidence f current supprt ver a perid f time up t and including February 215 ensures that ur apprach is sufficiently flexible t accmmdate the emergence f ppular supprt fr ther plitical parties that have nt previusly been n the list. There are many pinin plls available, but t avid picking between pinin plls that may have different underlying methdlgies and therefre results, we have relied n the BBC s Pll f Plls and als infrmatin prduced by the Plling Observatry Prject, bth f which aggregate results frm a number f plling rganisatins. 3

7 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Sectin 2 2 Intrductin 2.1 We published a cnsultatin n ur prpsals fr the majr parties list n 8 January 215 ( the Cnsultatin ) 3. We received respnses frm several plitical parties, bradcasters and academics as well as ver 7,4 respnses frm individuals. 2.2 Befre setting ut the reasning fr ur decisin in Sectins 3 and 4, we explain further belw: ur statutry duties in this cntext; ur rle in relatin t any televised party leaders debates; the rules relating t electin cverage and their relatinship with the list f majr parties; and the principles by which we have undertaken ur assessment. Our statutry duties 2.3 Many respndents t ur cnsultatin questined ur rle in maintaining a majr parties list, querying whether an independent regulatr like Ofcm shuld have a rle in such plitical matters. We therefre set ut the nature f ur statutry duties belw, which have been set by Parliament. 2.4 Our principal duty in carrying ut ur functins, as set by sectin 3 f the Cmmunicatins Act 23 ( the Act ), is t further the interests f citizens in relatin t cmmunicatins matters (namely, in this cntext bradcast cverage f electins). In perfrming ur functins we are required t have regard t the principles under which regulatry activities shuld be transparent, accuntable, prprtinate, cnsistent, and targeted nly at cases in which actin is needed. 2.5 There is a lng-standing ban n advertisements f a plitical nature n televisin r radi in the UK. It has been argued that allwing plitical advertising in the bradcast media wuld give an advantage t the best financed candidates r parties. 2.6 Party electin bradcasts ( PEBs ) are, therefre, designed t ffset the differential ability f parties t attract campaign funds. This free airtime is prvided prir t electins (and als n a seasnal basis utside electin campaigns) and allws qualifying parties an pprtunity t deliver their messages directly t the electrate thrugh the bradcast media. 2.7 T help maintain the effectiveness f this system, we have specific functins in this area. Parliament has charged Ofcm with the duty f making rules regarding the allcatin, length and frequency f PEBs and identifying the bradcasters that are required t transmit PEBs. Specifically, sectin 333 f the Act prvides that the regulatry regime fr every licensed public service televisin channel and natinal radi service is t include cnditins requiring the inclusin n that channel r service f party plitical bradcasts and cnditins requiring the adherence t rules made by Ofcm with 3 See 15/summary/Majr_parties.pdf 4

8 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 respect t thse bradcasts. We have discharged this duty by including the necessary cnditins in the relevant televisin and radi bradcast licences and by publishing rules ( the PPRB Rules ) In additin, under sectin 93 f the Representatin f the Peple Act 1983 (as amended), Ofcm is required t adpt a cde f practice with respect t the participatin f candidates at a parliamentary r lcal gvernment electin in bradcast items abut the cnstituency r electral area in questin. This bligatin is reflected in a number f statutry instruments with respect t bradcast items cvering electins t the Scttish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly, the Nrthern Ireland Assembly, the Eurpean Parliament and the pst f Plice and Crime Cmmissiner 5. In each case, befre drawing up such a cde f practice, we must have regard t any views expressed by the Electral Cmmissin. We have discharged this duty by preparing rules in Sectins Five and Six f the Bradcasting Cde ( the Cde ) (and in particular Rules 6.8 t 6.13 n cnstituency cverage and electral area cverage in electins) and assciated Guidance The PPRB Rules and Sectin Six f the Cde impse bligatins n bradcasters by reference t a s called list f majr parties 7. Further details n the PPRB Rules and the Cde can be fund in Annex 1 f the Cnsultatin. 2.1 In perfrming ur duties in this cntext, we are mindful f the need t strike an apprpriate balance between bth the bradcasters and plitical candidates right t freedm f expressin, cnsistent with Article 1 f the Eurpean Cnventin n Human Rights. Ofcm s rle in relatin t televised party leaders debates 2.11 Many f the respnses t ur Cnsultatin referred t the distinct issue f the parties invited t participate in any televised party leaders' debates in advance f the 215 General Electin. Many respndents expressed their bjectins t, in their view, Ofcm determining which parties might take part It is imprtant t nte that Ofcm has n rle 8 in, and has nt been invlved in, determining the parties invited, structure, frmat r style f any bradcast leaders debates that might take place. 4 See 5 See SI 27/236 Natinal Assembly fr Wales (Representatin f the Peple) Order 27 regulatin 67; SI 21/2999 Scttish Parliament (Electins etc) Order 21 regulatin 64; SI 24/1267 Eurpean Parliamentary Electins (Nrthern Ireland) Regulatins 24 regulatin 6; SI 24/293 Eurpean Parliamentary Electins Regulatins 24 regulatin 65; Nrthern Ireland Assembly (Electins) (Amendment) Order 29 regulatin 3. 6 On 21 March 213, as a result f the PPRB Statement, we published revised Guidance relating t: Sectin Five f the Cde (see and Sectin Six f the Cde (see 7 See 8 Ofcm s rle in relatin t any bradcast leaders debates wuld be t cnsider any cmplaints made after bradcast that any such debate did nt cmply with the Bradcasting Cde. Fr example, in the 21 General Electin, Ofcm s Electin Cmmittee (see paragraph 2.18 belw) cnsidered cmplaints frm Plaid Cymru and the Scttish Natinal Party cncerning the first leaders bradcast debate in that campaign. See and 5

9 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May We are aware that discussins are currently underway between the bradcasters and plitical parties regarding the frm and cmpsitin f thse debates. It is an editrial matter fr the bradcasters, fllwing agreement with the parties, as t the structure, frmat and style f any leaders debates. Whilst the cmpsitin f the list f majr parties may influence thse discussins, it is pen t bradcasters t invite nn-majr parties t participate in such debates. Since the publicatin f ur Cnsultatin, the prpsed frm and cmpsitin f the debates has changed significantly, and nw at least ne party nt designated as a majr party has been invited t participate 9. Bradcasting relating t the electins and the majr parties list 2.14 During the electin campaign, there will be tw types f bradcast cntent relevant t the electins 1 : PEBs: These bradcasts are ffered by relevant bradcasters t registered plitical parties under the PPRB Rules. In summary, in the May 215 electins PEBs fr the General Electin must be bradcast by: reginal Channel 3 services; Channel 4; Channel 5, Classic FM; Talksprt; and, Abslute Radi AM. In additin, PEBs must be bradcast by reginal Channel 3 services fr the English lcal gvernment electins 11 ; and bradcasters' wn editrial cverage f the electins: Bradcasters' news and current affairs cverage (as well as ther prgramming relevant t the electins) must cmply with Sectin Five (due impartiality) 12 and Sectin Six (electins and referendums) 13 f the Bradcasting Cde. This includes any party leaders debates that might take place The list f majr parties is imprtant fr Ofcm's regulatin f electin cverage because certain bligatins in the PPRB Rules and Sectin Six f the Cde apply by reference t the parties n that list. In summary, the list f majr parties reflects the fact that sme plitical parties have a significant level f electral supprt, and number f elected representatives, acrss a range f electins within the UK r the devlved natins. Ofcm s nrmal rle in relatin t bradcasting cntent is t review pstbradcast whether prgramming has cmplied with the Cde: fr instance, whether it has caused harm and ffence, r whether there are fairness and privacy cnsideratins. We make in breach findings and impse financial penalties where apprpriate. We d nt review prgrammes befre they are bradcast t determine whether they are r are nt cmpliant with the rules. 9 Ofcm understands that at the time f writing, certain leading bradcasters have invited the fllwing parties t take part in prpsed bradcast leaders debates; the Cnservative Party; the Green Party; the Labur Party; the Liberal Demcrats; Plaid Cymru; the Scttish Natinal Party ( SNP ); and the UK Independence Party ( UKIP ). 1 The BBC has its wn Editrial Guidelines in relatin t the cverage f electins which, fr example, state which parties are larger and smaller parties acrss Great Britain (see: 11 In additin, under the PPRB Rules, lcal digital televisin prgramme service licensees must carry lcal electin bradcasts fr the lcal gvernment electins. These licensees fulfil this bligatin by carrying the same PEB as bradcast by the relevant Channel 3 licensee. In past years when there have been General Electins, we understand that n PEBs have been ffered by relevant Channel 3 licensees slely fr the purpses f any lcal electins that were taking place at the same time. If this situatin were repeated in 215 (i.e. if n PEBs were t be ffered by relevant Channel 3 licensees slely fr the purpses f the 215 English lcal electins) we cnsider that there wuld be n bligatin n relevant lcal televisin bradcasters t carry PEBs. 12 See 13 See 6

10 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May The PPRB Rules are an exceptin t ur nrmal pst-bradcast apprach because they set ut criteria prescribing, pre-bradcast, the basis n which a minimum number f PEBs must be ffered t certain parties by the public service bradcasters. By way f summary: Under Rule 13, each majr party shuld be ffered at least tw PEBs, with the actual number f PEBs being a matter fr the bradcasters having regard t the circumstances f the electin and evidence f a party s past electral supprt and/r current supprt Under Rule 14, nn-majr parties can autmatically qualify fr at least ne PEB if they if they are cntesting ne sixth r mre f the seats in a natin in a General Electin Under Rule 15, the bradcasters are required t cnsider ffering further PEBs if evidence f a party s past electral supprt and/r current supprt at a particular electin r in a relevant natin/electral area means it wuld be apprpriate t d s It is imprtant t nte, therefre, that the fact a party is nt n the list f majr parties des nt mean it is prevented frm receiving PEBs during an electin campaign and if a party is n the majr party list it des nt autmatically receive the same number f PEBs, r exactly the same amunt f editrial cverage, during an electin campaign as ther majr parties. This is primarily a matter fr the relevant bradcasters t determine at their discretin In additin, we have a dispute reslutin rle in relatin t the allcatin, where there are unreslved disputes between bradcasters and plitical parties 15 cncerning allcatins f PEBs in accrdance with the PPRB Rules 16. Such disputes are dealt with under the Prcedures fr determinatin f disputes under Ofcm's rules n Party Plitical and Referendum Bradcasts ( the PPRB Rules Prcedures ) 17 by Ofcm s Electin Cmmittee Separately, we have a rle in relatin t editrial cverage. In this regard, Ofcm s rle is t review cmpliance with the Cde n a pst-bradcast basis. Of particular nte in this cntext, Rule 6.2 f the Cde requires that: 14 There are mre specific rules fr ther frms f electin, such as prprtinal representatin systems f electin. 15 And designated rganisatins in referendums in relatin t the allcatin f Referendum Campaign Bradcasts. 16 See Sectin 333 f the Act 23 empwers Ofcm t make rules which may include prvisin fr determining the plitical parties n whse behalf party plitical bradcasts, including PEBs, may be made. The PPRB Rules cntain minimum requirements set by Ofcm which Licensees must abide by in deciding the allcatin, length, frequency and scheduling f PEBs and bradcasts utside f electins, knwn as party plitical bradcasts ( PPBs ). 17 See (and reprduced in Annex 3). In Sectin 5 we discuss the respnses we received t the amendment t the PPRB Rules Prcedures that we prpsed in the Cnsultatin. 18 See The Electin Cmmittee is a delegated cmmittee f the Ofcm Bard whse rle is (a) t cnsider and adjudicate n cmplaints received with regard t: the allcatin by Ofcm licensed bradcasters f PEBs; the scheduling f PEBs, r their duratin; and, (b) t cnsider and adjudicate n cmplaints received in relatin t due impartiality in prgrammes transmitted by Ofcm licensed bradcasters where Ofcm cnsiders that a substantive issue is raised and where the cmplaint, if upheld, might require redress befre the electin. 7

11 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 "Due weight must be given t the cverage f majr parties during the electin perid". 2.2 Ofcm's published Guidance t Sectin Six makes clear that: "The cncept f giving 'due weight' t the majr parties, as required by Rule 6.2, is flexible. Its applicatin depends n the electral cntext" Rule 6.2 therefre des nt require bradcasters t give equal cverage t all the majr parties in any given electin campaign. Nr des the Cde prevent bradcasters frm cvering nn-majr parties during electin campaigns. This is a matter fr their editrial judgement, which Ofcm may scrutinise pst-bradcast. In this cntext, Rule 6.2 f the Cde requires that: "Bradcasters must als cnsider giving apprpriate cverage t ther parties and independent candidates with significant views and perspectives" We wuld therefre expect bradcasters t give apprpriate editrial cverage t nnmajr parties, especially in situatins where there are likely t be a greater range f ptential vices cmpeting fr cverage. There may be particular reasns fr this in the cntext f the frthcming General Electin: ntably, the pssibility that n party may win an verall majrity; and that a number f parties (including thse frm the different natins f the UK) may have sme rle in frming the next gvernment Whilst it is primarily fr the bradcasters t determine the nature f their editrial cverage f the electins, in applying the Cde we wuld expect bradcasters t reflect a range f viewpints frm parties acrss the UK in their editrial cverage. The principles by which we have undertaken ur assessment 2.24 In ur Statement ( the PPRB Statement ) f March we made the decisin t make the list f majr parties a self-standing dcument and we said we wuld review it in accrdance with the fllwing principles: we wuld cnsider whether it is apprpriate t review the list n a peridic basis i.e. we wuld nly review the list if there were cgent reasns fr ding s; mindful f the need fr cntinuity and certainty in this area s that bth plitical parties and bradcasters can plan ahead fr electins, we wuld cmmence any reviews in the autumn preceding the relevant electin(s) happening in the fllwing May/June; in any review f the list we might carry ut, we wuld take int accunt factrs such as the electral perfrmance f parties (including the numbers f elected candidates and verall percentage f vte received) ver a range f electins 21 ver at least tw electral cycles (including electins prir t the PPRB Cnsultatin) fr the different types f electins, and levels f current supprt; 19 See paragraph See The PPRB Statement was published fllwing the related cnsultatin ( the PPRB Cnsultatin ), 21 Including Westminster Parliamentary by-electins. 8

12 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 if a party's perfrmance ver several electins f the same type was significant but nt reflected in ther types f electin, we wuld cnsider drawing up a specific list f majr parties fr that specific type f electin; whenever we decide t review the list, we wuld publicly cnsult n any prpsed changes, including btaining input frm the Electral Cmmissin n any prpsed changes; and as apprpriate, we wuld publicly cnsult nly in relatin t the relevant electin r particular electins, rather than all pssible types f electins We undertk ur first review ( the 214 Review ) f the list f majr parties ahead f the 214 Eurpean Parliamentary electins and English lcal (and mayral) electins in Fr the purpses f this review ( the 215 Review ), we have bradly adpted the same analytical framewrk as fr the 214 Review, namely we have assessed the available electral evidence based n each party s past electral perfrmance and current supprt separately in each f England, Wales, Sctland and Nrthern Ireland In ur view this apprach reflects tw interlcking features: firstly, the list recgnises that certain plitical parties field candidates principally acrss England, Wales and Sctland, while ther parties field candidates in just ne f thse natins r Nrthern Ireland. Therefre, in news and current affairs electin prgramming that, fr example, fcuses n electins acrss Great Britain, the list f majr parties requires bradcasters t give apprpriate cverage t thse majr parties that field candidates principally acrss England, Wales and Sctland in UK-wide electins (i.e. General Electins and Eurpean Parliamentary electins). Cnversely, in news and current affairs electin prgramming that fcuses n the electins acrss Great Britain in just ne natin f the UK, the list f majr parties requires bradcasters t give apprpriate cverage t thse majr parties that field candidates in that ne natin; and secnd, the list implicitly reflects the UK/Great Britain s bradcasting architecture 23. This is because the list f majr parties ensures that bradcasters bradcasting n either a UK/Great Britain-wide basis (such as Channel 4 r Channel 5) r n a devlved natin basis (such as STV in Sctland) allcate PEBs t parties in a manner apprpriate t that bradcaster s bradcast ftprint. The current list f majr parties, althugh a single list, als reflects separate lists fr the UK/Great Britain, England, Wales, Sctland, and Nrthern Ireland 2.27 This apprach has a number f advantages: 22 On 3 March 214, we cnfirmed that the UK Independence Party wuld be added t the Ofcm list f majr parties fr England and Wales fr the specific purpses f the Eurpean Parliamentary electins in May 214 nly. This means that as f 22 May 214 UKIP was n lnger included n the list f majr parties (see pdf). 23 Sme bradcasters (such as Channel 4, Channel 5 and the natinal radi services i.e. Abslute Radi AM, Classic FM, and Talksprt) transmit their prgramming acrss the UK/Great Britain, whilst sme bradcasters, such as Channel 3 licensees bradcast t devlved, r parts f, devlved natins. 9

13 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 it enables the list t reflect variatins in supprt fr plitical parties in the natins f the UK, yet als reflects the fact that certain majr parties demnstrate significant supprt acrss England, Wales and Sctland in aggregate 24 ; it ensures that the framewrk fr allcating PEBs n channels transmitted nly within a devlved natin (such as STV, ITV Wales and UTV), r fr determining cverage n electin prgrammes (which fcus n UK-wide electins (such as General Electins) within specific devlved natins), accurately reflects the different parties individual electral strengths within each devlved natin; and it ensures cnsistency in the apprach t assessing the list f majr parties fr bth UK-wide electins and electins taking place in individual devlved natins. General summary f cnsultatin respnses 2.28 We received respnses t the cnsultatin frm the Electral Cmmissin; the English Demcrats; the Green Party; the Liberal Demcrats; Mebyn Kernw; Plaid Cymru; the Scttish Green Party; the Scttish Natinal Party ( SNP ); Jnathan Edwards MP 25 ; Mlly Sctt Cat MEP 26 ; Bristl fr Demcracy 27 ; a cnfidential respnse frm a Welsh plitical rganisatin; and a cmbined respnse frm Channel 4, Channel 5, ITV Plc and UTV Televisin ( the Cmbined Bradcaster Respnse ). We als received tw respnses frm different academics: Nick Anstead f the Lndn Schl f Ecnmics and Plitical Science; and Chris Hanretty, Ben Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan f the University f East Anglia (the UEA academics ) In additin, we received 7,42 respnses frm individuals. By way f summary: 284 bjected t the existing majr parties being s designated with a minrity f these specifically bjecting t the Liberal Demcrats being designated as a majr party. 811 supprted these parties designatin as majr parties; 192 bjected t Traditinal Uninist Vice ( TUV ) nt being a majr party, with 271 supprting their nn-designatin as a majr party; 6,386 bjected t the Green Party (including the Scttish Green Party) nt being a majr party, with 36 supprting their nn-designatin as a majr party; 954 bjected t UKIP being designated as a majr party, with 696 supprting their designatin as a majr party; and 325 bjected t the SNP, nt being a majr party acrss all f Great Britain (as ppsed t just Sctland), with 17 taking the cntrary view. 24 Therefre, in news and current affairs electin prgramming that, fr example, fcuses n electins acrss Great Britain, the list f majr parties requires bradcasters t give apprpriate cverage t thse majr parties that field candidates principally, and have significant aggregate supprt, acrss England, Wales and Sctland. In additin, bradcasters bradcasting n a UK/Great Britain-wide basis (such as Channel 4 r Channel 5) wuld have t allcate PEBs t thse majr parties that fielded candidates principally, and had significant aggregate supprt, acrss England, Wales and Sctland as a whle; 25 Plaid Cymru MP fr Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. 26 Green Party MEP fr Suth West England. 27 Bristl fr Demcracy described itself as ne f Britain's fremst campaign grups fr demcratic refrm. 1

14 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May The nn-cnfidential respnses t the Cnsultatin frm the respndents named abve have been published n ur website 28. In additin, a summary f the respnses frm individuals has been published n ur website 29. A detailed summary f all f the cnsultatin respnses is set ut in Annex See 29 Ibid. 11

15 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Sectin 3 3 Relevant evidence relied upn by Ofcm Intrductin 3.1 In this sectin, we set ut: the nature f the evidence f electral perfrmance and current supprt that we have relied upn t make ur decisin (including cnsideratin f submissins frm respndents t ur Cnsultatin); and a summary f the evidence 3 available t Ofcm f electral perfrmance and the updated evidence f current supprt fr the varius plitical parties specific t the electins due t take place n 7 May 215. Our cnsultatin prpsals 3.2 In the Cnsultatin, we set ut the evidence f past electral supprt and current supprt that we prpsed t use t determine the list f majr parties fr the 215 electins. We asked stakehlders fr their views n that evidence. Specifically, we asked whether there was any ther relevant evidence which respndents cnsidered Ofcm shuld take int accunt. Ofcm s views n respndents submissins 3.3 In cnsidering the apprpriate evidence that we shuld use fr the 215 Review, we have nted that the Cmbined Bradcaster Respnse 31 and a number f individual respndents said that Ofcm had taken int accunt the relevant evidence f current and past electral supprt fr the purpses f the 215 Review. In additin, we nte that the Electral Cmmissin, the specialist regulatr whm we have a statutry duty t cnsult in these matters, stated that Ofcm had identified the relevant factrs that need t be taken int accunt. 3.4 Varius respndents suggested that Ofcm shuld take accunt f ther frms f evidence as a means f assessing current supprt fr plitical parties. A detailed summary f respndents submissins n this aspect f ur Cnsultatin is set ut at Annex 4, paragraphs A4.2 t A4.14. Our views n thse submissins are set ut belw. Party membership 3.5 The Green Party and the Scttish Natinal Party ( SNP ), supprted by ther respndents, suggested that party membership shuld be used a factr in gauging current supprt. In this regard the Green Party said that: The decisin t jin a plitical party represents a significant cmmitment. 3.6 Hwever, we nte that even allwing fr the reprted grwth in membership f the Green Party, the Scttish Green Party and the Scttish Natinal Party ( SNP ), ttal party membership f all UK plitical parties remains a very small prprtin f the ttal 3 In this Statement we have updated the evidence f current supprt we relied upn in the Cnsultatin and which was laid ut in Annex 2 f that dcument, t encmpass relevant pinin pll data since December A cmbined respnse frm Channel 4, Channel 5, ITV Plc and UTV Televisin. 12

16 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 electrate 32. As such, we d nt cnsider that party membership ttals wuld be a rbust indicatr f wider supprt fr the varius parties acrss the electrate at large. Evidence f public supprt fr particular plicies 3.7 The Green Party, supprted by ther respndents, als cited supprt fr the Green Party based n results frm plicy-related plling such as that carried ut by and YuGv. In bth cases rates f supprt fr particular plicies rather than parties had been measured. 3.8 Hwever, we d nt cnsider that this frm f analysis is a sufficiently rbust means f measuring current supprt fr ur purpses. Firstly, the respndents t the survey cited by the Green Party were self-selecting and were nt subject t any statistical weighting (unlike established pinin plls). Secnd, we nte that the verall supprt (27.36%) that the Green Party said it had received in this survey was nt a measure f individuals pting fr Green Party plicies as a whle, but was an aggregatin f different individuals pting fr single Green Party plicies in islatin. Third, the YuGv pll cited by the Green Party nly cnsidered respndents views n three distinct plicies, whereas party preferences in cnventinal pinin plls reflect the fact that vters are chsing the ne party that best reflects their preference acrss a very large number f plicy areas. Such pinin plls implicitly reflect individuals plicy preferences ver a range f areas. In any event, the relatinship between supprt fr specific plicies and the party r parties espusing these plicies is pen t a wide range f interpretatin. Evidence f public interest in a party receiving public expsure 3.9 The Green Party and a large number f individual respndents pinted t an ICM pll and a petitin that they cnsidered shwed a high level f supprt frm members f the public fr the inclusin f the Green Party in any bradcast leaders debates that might take place befre the 215 General Electin. Hwever, as we state in paragraph 2.13 abve, the cmpsitin f any such debates and whether particular parties shuld take part, is a matter fr the relevant bradcasters in agreement with the parties. It is a separate matter frm whether r nt a party is designated as a majr party. By way f backgrund, we nte that the Green Party has nw been invited t participate in prpsed party leaders debates. Yung vters 3.1 The Green Party and a number f ther respndents said that Ofcm shuld als take accunt f yung vters (e.g. 18 t 24 year-lds) preferences in gauging current supprt. Reasns fr this included: the fact a large number f yung vters wuld nt have vted fr the Green Party in the 21 General Electin, s accunting fr the party s lw level f supprt in that electin; and the need, in sme respndents views, t encurage plitical engagement amngst yung vters In respnse t these pints, we nte that all plitical parties draw supprt frm different age chrts and that the varius plling rganisatins ensure their survey samples are weighted t reflect the distributin f the different age-grups acrss the ppulatin. As such, if a particular party s supprt increases in any different age grup, this will be reflected in an increase in its verall plling figure. We therefre cnsider it wuld be inapprpriate t place any extra weighting n the amunt f supprt parties may receive 32 Fr example, Huse f Cmmns research fund that in 213 the cmbined membership f the Cnservative Party, Labur Party and the Liberal Demcrats represented.8% f the ttal UK electrate. See 13

17 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 frm 18 t 24 year-lds. In additin, in reaching ur decisin we have taken int accunt mre recent significant electins when yunger vters wh were nt able t vte in the 25 and 21 General Electins wuld have had the pprtunity t cast their vte. Other pinin pll data 3.12 The English Demcrats bjected t Ofcm using Great Britain-wide pinin pll data as a prxy fr gauging supprt in England nly. Hwever, in this regard we nte that estimates prduced by the UEA academics suggest that the same parties identified by [Ofcm] as majr parties in Great Britain are als the fur largest parties in England. In additin, Ofcm is nt aware f any recent aggregated figures f different plling rganisatins pinin plls, shwing supprt fr the plitical parties in England nly. We have therefre used the Great Britain-wide plls in the BBC Pll f Plls and the Plling Observatry figures as a prxy fr gauging levels f current supprt in England nly On a related pint, we nte the request frm the Green Party that we take int accunt three pinin plls 33 frm January 215, which shwed the party up t 11% in individual Great Britain-wide plls. We nte these plls but cnsider a mre statistically rbust apprach is t use cmprehensive aggregated averages f plls prduced by a large range f plling rganisatins, and nt the small selectin f plls identified by the Green Party. Therefre, we favur the BBC Pll f Plls and the Plling Observatry figures as a mre reliable measure f current supprt than using a narrwer range f plls We als nte the cncern expressed by the Green Party that pinin pll supprt fr that party in Great Britain-wide pinin plls was displayed separately t the data fr the ther parties. Hwever, this was because the aggregated figures f pinin plls f supprt fr the plitical parties (cntained in the BBC Pll f Plls and Plling Observatry data) did nt separately include figures fr the Green Party. We therefre welcme the fact that since the start f 215 bth the BBC Pll f Plls and Plling Observatry data nw include separate figures fr the Green Party, including histrical data. Therefre, in Annex 2 f this dcument figures 3 and 31, which set ut the data fr the BBC Pll f Plls and Plling Observatry respectively include figures fr the Green Party since May 212. We cnsider that is nw pssible t make rbust cmparisns between the Green Party and ther parties In additin, we have updated all the pinin plling data relating t the fur natins f the UK until the end f February A separate pinin pll-related pint raised by sme individual respndents was that Ofcm shuld take accunt f the trajectry f increases in pinin pll ratings. We d nt agree that it wuld be apprpriate t take such infrmatin int accunt fr the purpses f this decisin. It wuld be wrng fr Ofcm t attempt t predict trends in ppular supprt fr the varius parties, and we cnsider it wuld nt be a credible basis n which t take ur decisin. The abslute level f supprt fr particular parties within separate natins f the UK is, in ur view, mre relevant when gauging evidence f current supprt, rather than whether a party has seen a large relative increase in its plling supprt while its abslute level f supprt still remains relatively mdest. 33 The Green Party cited: a Lrd Ashcrft natinal pll, shwing Green Party supprt at 11%; a Guardian/ICM pll shwing Green Party supprt at 9%; and a YuGv pll shwing: Green Party supprt at 8% ahead f the Liberal Demcrats wh are n 7% and in tied secnd place at 22% amng year lds. 14

18 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Evidence relating t Wales 3.17 We have taken int accunt the Welsh Assembly by-electin cited by Plaid Cymru. In additin, we nte the cmments abut Wales-nly pinin plls made by the cnfidential respndent and cnfirm that ur current decisin has nt slely been determined by reference t evidence f current supprt. Other criteria 3.18 Respndents als suggested that Ofcm shuld take int accunt a range f ther factrs when reviewing the list f majr parties. Hwever, we are nt persuaded that any f these criteria wuld be apprpriate fr use in the 215 Review. Fr example: We nte the argument put by Bristl fr Demcracy and a number f individual respndents abut split vting, whereby the First Past the Pst ( FPTP ) electral system, in their view, means that peple wh might like t vte fr ne f the smaller parties ften feel cmpelled t vte fr a larger party in rder fr their vte t make a difference. It is the fact that FPTP is the electral system in use fr UK General Electins, and respndents t pinin plls are asked their vting intentin n that basis. We therefre cnsider it wuld be inapprpriate fr us t rely n pinin plling based n the hypthetical existence f a mre prprtinal electral system fr General Electins We nte the argument raised by sme respndents that the structure f questining in pinin plls underestimates the supprt f minr parties, such as the Green Party. In this regard, we nte there is sme debate abut the effect f questining methdlgy (and the prmpting f particular parties names in initial pll questins) n measuring party preferences. Hwever, we are nt aware f any clear evidence that this has had a material effect n measuring the perfrmance f smaller parties, such as the Green Party We als nte the argument that Ofcm shuld take accunt f the number f candidates being fielded by parties t gauge whether a party shuld be a majr party. We cnsider that the number f candidates being fielded by a party des nt readily crrelate t wider supprt within the electrate, and that a range f parties in electins are able t field a large number f candidates withut demnstrating significant supprt electrally. The number f candidates will be imprtant under Rule 14 f the PPRB Rules, as this may qualify the party fr a least ne PEB We als cnsider that levels f scial media activity n behalf f parties wuld nt be apprpriate as a means f measuring current supprt. We cnsider such an apprach wuld nt be sufficiently bjective r measurable because, fr example, the number f Twitter fllwers attributed t a party, unlike pinin plls, culd nt be statistically weighted t reflect the electrate as a whle, and will nt necessarily dente an accurate number f unique individuals expressing supprt fr a party at any particular time. 34 See the UK Plling Reprt ( fr a discussin n the effect f prmpting in pinin pll questins n stated supprt fr UKIP. The UK Plling Reprt states that a number f plling rganisatins had intrduced prmpting fr UKIP in their plls, but with n significant effect upn the level f UKIP supprt. 35 Under Rule 14, nn-majr parties can autmatically qualify fr at least ne PEB if they are cntesting ne-sixth r mre f the seats in a natin in a General Electin. 15

19 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May Finally, we als cnsider that it wuld be inapprpriate t take accunt, as sme respndents argued, f the lwer levels f media cverage received by sme parties. In ur view, levels f media cverage wuld nt be a straightfrward variable t quantify and it is debatable the extent t which cverage acrss all frms f media wuld easily crrelate with levels f supprt with the different parties. Cnclusins n relevant evidence 3.19 Fr the purpses f this decisin we have relied n the fllwing relevant evidence, which is set ut in full in in Annex 2: a) evidence f past electral supprt: This cnsists f relevant data f actual electral perfrmance in previus General Electins 36 and English lcal (and mayral) electins ver a number f years. In additin, we set ut relevant data fr electral perfrmance in ther significant types f electin 37 which have taken place since the 21 General Electin, and which are nt being cntested in May 215; and b) evidence f current supprt: This cnsists f evidence f current supprt ver a perid f time up t and including February 215 in relatin t England 38, Wales, Sctland and Nrthern Ireland as demnstrated by pinin pll data. In summary, this evidence is cmprised f the fllwing: England: we have used the Great Britain-wide plls as a prxy fr gauging levels f current supprt in England nly. The figures we used are cntained in: the BBC Pll f Plls (f Great Britain-wide plls); and the mnthly plling reprts prduced by the Plling Observatry prject 39 ; and Wales, Sctland and Nrthern Ireland: we nte that few pinin plls relate individually t Wales, Sctland 4 r Nrthern Ireland. Nevertheless, we present the limited infrmatin that is available in Annex We have updated the relevant evidence f current supprt since the publicatin f ur Cnsultatin t include the latest available data until the end f February As explained further at paragraph 4.9, fllwing cnsideratin f submissins frm respndents t ur Cnsultatin we have placed less weight n the evidence f electral 36 Cnsistent with ur methdlgy fr assessing the data, as laid ut in paragraph 2.25 abve, the General Electin data has been listed separately fr the fur natins f the UK. 37 Such as Westminster Parliamentary by-electins and electins t: the Eurpean Parliament; the Scttish Parliament; the Natinal Assembly fr Wales; the Nrthern Ireland Assembly; the Lndn Assembly; Plice and Crime Cmmissiner electins; and lcal electins in Wales, Sctland and Nrthern Ireland. 38 Ofcm is nt aware f any recent aggregated figures f different plling rganisatins pinin plls, shwing supprt fr the plitical parties in England nly. We have therefre used the Great Britain-wide plls in the BBC Pll f Plls and the Plling Observatry figures as a prxy fr gauging levels f current supprt in England nly. 39 See 4 We have included the tw pinin plls cited by the SNP relating t the whle f Sctland (see ftnte 111). We have nt included the third pll cited by the SNP, because this related nly t 16 f the 59 seats in Sctland. 16

20 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 perfrmance tw electral cycles ag and greater weight n evidence f electral supprt in mre recent electins as well as evidence f current supprt in pinin plls. Summary f the relevant electral evidence 3.22 Figures 1 t 6 belw prvide details f electral perfrmance in the 21 General Electin and the 213 and 214 English lcal electins (being the type f electins being held n 7 May 215). Figures 7 t 11 shws levels f current supprt fr parties in: Great Britain-wide pinin plls, as demnstrated by the BBC Pll f Plls and the Plling Observatry; and pinin plls in relatin t Wales, Sctland and Nrthern Ireland. Figure 1: Number f seats and share f vte at the 21 General Electin (England, Wales and Sctland) Cns. Lab. Lib- Dem. 21 General Electin SNP Plaid Cymru UKIP Green BNP Others Party 41 England % % % N/A N/A 3.5% Wales N/A % 36.3% 2.1% 11.3% 2.4% Sctland N/A 16.8% 42.% 18.9% 19.9%.7% Surce: BBC and Huse f Cmmns Library 1 1.%.4%.7% 2.1% 1.6%.4% 1 1.6% 1.8%.6% Figure 2: Share f vte at the 21 General Electin (England, Wales and Sctland) 45.% 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% England Wales Sctland 1.% 5.%.% Cns Lab L-D SNP PC UKIP Green BNP Others 41 And Scttish Green Party. 17

21 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Figure 3: Number f seats and share f vte at the 21 General Electin (Nrthern Ireland) DUP Sinn Fein SDLP UUP Alliance Party 21 General Electin TUV Green Party Others 8 25.% % % 15.2% 1 6.3% Surce: BBC and Huse f Cmmns Library 3.9%.5% 1 7.1% Figure 4: Share f vte at the 21 General Electin (Nrthern Ireland) N. Ireland 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% N. Ireland 5.%.% DUP Sinn Fein SDLP UUP Alliance TUV Green Other Figure 5: Number f seats and share f vte at the 213 and 214 English lcal electins Year Cns. Lab. Lib-Dem. UKIP Green Party 214 2,124 1, % 35.8% 11.1% 15.7% 6.6% 213 1, % 21.2% 13.9% 19.9% 3.6% Surce: The Electins Centre, Plymuth University BNP 1.3%.2% Others % % 42 Due t a typgraphic errr in the Cnsultatin it was wrngly stated that UKIP had wn 16 seats in the 214 English lcal electins rather than the 163 seats they actually wn. 18

22 Review f Ofcm list f majr plitical parties fr electins taking place n 7 May 215 Figure 6: Share f vte at the 213 and 214 English lcal electins 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% Cns Lab L-D UKIP Green BNP Other 5.%.% Figure 7: Evidence f current supprt in Great Britain-wide pinin plls May 212 t February 215 (BBC Pll f Plls) 45.% 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% Cns Lab L-D UKIP Green 5.%.% 19