Strategic Intelligence Analysis Fall 2016

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Strategic Intelligence Analysis Fall 2016"

Imogen Chase
5 years ago
Views:

1 Russia: Western Sanctions Crippling Arctic Development With huge mineral deposits and almost all of Russia s energy resources, the Arctic is of great economic importance to Russia. Climate change freeing new resources, and Russia has been looking further north as a source of growth; however, Western sanctions over the Ukraine Crisis have continued to damage Russian attempts to develop this vital region as they have blocked technology transfers, hampered attempts to raise development funds, and complicated China s relationship with Russia. Russian firms badly need the petrochemical technology transfers that sanctions have halted. - As Russian energy firms have inadequate technology to operate in the Arctic Ocean, activities depend on Western expertise. E.G. 60% of Russia s only offshore oil rig was built with Norwegian technology. - Further development of off-shore resources depends on the ability to liquify off-shore natural gas and to drill sub-ice, fields in which Norway s Statoil has long been a leader. While Russian firms were once able to partner with Statoil to utilize this technology, Norway has since blocked such transfers. By blocking needed technologies, Western sanctions have rendered off-sea drilling activities nigh impossible for Russian energy firms. It is now exceedingly difficult for Russian energy firms to raise funds for infrastructure investments. - Western sanctions have prevented Russian energy oligarchs from accessing the global financial system, leading Russian firms to instead front costs or rely on less reliable partners such as China. - With Russia in recession and business activities hit by instability, price drops, and sanctions, Russian firms have less capital to front funds for large endeavors. Russia s inability to access Western investment has prevented large-scale development projects of any kind, especially capitalintensive pipeline projects such as those from the Yamal Peninsula to China. Western sanctions have complicated China s relationship with Russia, and though Russia has an increased incentive to bolster energy cooperation with China, China is not an easy partner. - China is careful not to damage relations with the West by aligning itself with Russia. In addition to slowing industrial output at home, China has less of an incentive to strengthen an energy partnership with Russia and is thus unwilling to lend large amounts of capital to Russian energy projects. - Russia s poor relations with the West have made China a needed energy market. With few options for Russia, China has an increased ability to set terms in the relationship, and may use Chinese funding for Russian development projects as a political tool. Russia s poor relations with the West has made China its only viable development partner, and this puts the partnership on entirely Chinese terms. Analyst Comment: Western sanctions have greatly hampered Russia s Arctic development projects by blocking technology transfers, keeping capital from development projects, and by forcing it to partner with China. As time progresses, we expect that Russia will seek detente with the West and resolution of the Ukraine Crisis or will cede economic rights to China. These concessions may include the right to use the Northern Sea Route without tariffs a Chinese priority or increased rights to the region s oil and energy resources. Analyst: Christian Haig Faculty Advisor: David H. Gray 1

2 Russia: Heavy-Hitter in Cyber Trenches Even with Russia in the media spotlight for its recent military force in Syria, its highly sophisticated cyber capabilities also draw the attention of the intelligence community. The growing threat of cyber-attacks ranks high in the Worldwide Threat Assessment for the United States, with particular reference to Russia s advancing cyber assets. Russia s developing ability to remotely access and control enemy command systems, while simultaneously establishing a specialized branch for computer network operations within its armed forces, holds the potential for a severe threat to national and economic security. Remote Access to Command and Control Systems Acquiring access to enemy command and control systems will provide Russia with offensive capabilities on several fronts. Current proliferation of digital propaganda through social media and related outlets Developing capability of inserting malware to digital infrastructure to gain remote control Current defense against cyber-attacks has fallen short versus heretofore restrained attacks; without significant advancement of national capabilities, current safeguards are unlikely to withstand more targeted assaults. Military Advancements Russia is focusing significant resources to the advancement and modernization of its armed forces and military capabilities, including cyber operations. Establishment of a specialized branch for digital operations within its armed forces Previous coordination of digital data breaches with military planning and movements With experience coordinating kinetic and cyber operations of its armed forces, it is anticipated those tactics would be utilized by Russia against the United States were intent to turn hostile. History of Political Cyber Espionage Intelligence has indicated Russia concentrates cyber efforts on political espionage in the form of the government, research institutes and the military, both in the United States and globally. Subcontracted hackers utilized malware to data mine intelligence concerning foreign policy and related security matters of interest to Russia Spear phishing is attributed to more than 90 percent of Russian-attributed data breaches Documented connections between cyber breaches and Russian origins have proven Russian cyber warfare strategies to be successful for a number of years and likely to continue to advance. Analyst Comment: With a disintegrating global security environment and tenuous at times U.S.-Russia relations, implications of Russian cyber advances carry heavy risks. Technology available to Russian forces is presumed capable of not only data mining sensitive intelligence, but overhauling enemy combat systems and critical infrastructure through malware. It is anticipated that should relations with Russia become hostile, Russian armed forces will utilize its currently advanced cyber warfare, capable of impeding American operations both economically and militaristically. Analyst: Heather Ireland Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H. Gray 2

3 Russia: Implications of the Intervention in Syria (against ISIL) On 30 September 2015, Russia unexpectedly intervened in the Syrian Civil War conducting air strikes primarily in north-western Syria against militant groups opposed to the Syrian government, like ISIL. Russian will likely be engaged in a long-term conflict that symbolizes a power move by Putin in order to emerge as a regional hegemon but will unlikely be able to sustain its intervention due to a weak Russian economy and a strengthening ISIL organization. Unexpected Military Might Sources have verified that the Russian Air Force is currently flying 96 missions per day, with the expectation to increase to 300 missions per day in the coming weeks. The naval fleet has fired massive cruise missiles from over 1500km at ISIL targets, a capability previously unknown to the IC. Russian military flamethrower missiles known as the 'Blazing Sun' have also been utilized triggering a 1000 C heat wave which burns all of the oxygen nearby, leaving victims unable to breathe. Although Russian airstrikes have done a substantial amount of damage to ISIL infrastructure with these new technologies, the network-centric group has been able to avoid decapitation, signifying that Putin wants to flex Russian military might but does not want to commit ground forces in the region. Weakening Russian Economy The Russian economy relies on oil sales for over 50 percent of its revenue and is projected to lose $2 billion in potential sales. Sources suggest that endemic corruption costs the Russian economy between $300 and $500 billion every year. The IMF believes that sanctions will eventually cost Russia 9 percent of its GDP. With OPEC trying to keep oil prices low and the Syrian campaign costing the Russian military $2.4million per day, it is unlikely that Putin will be able to maintain this high operational tempo for much longer. Increased ISIL Resolve ISIL took responsibility for the Russia-bound Metrojet that crashed in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula last weekend, killing all 224 people aboard; sources say they are 99.9 percent certain that a bomb took down the plane. Last week, information appeared about the growing number of cases of US-supplied weapons and ammunition being seized by the ISIS. Sources have confirmed that despite Russian airstrikes, ISIL is still able to bring in $1-2 million in oil revenue per day. ISIL is responsible for bombing the airliner. It has shown the world that it is just as malicious as al-qaeda, and has shown its capability to operate outside its sphere of influence. ISIL has also shown that they possess advanced maneuvering capabilities by not engaging Russian Hind helicopters directly; they are without a doubt more advanced than Al Qaeda. Analyst Comments: If oil prices continue to decrease, we project Russia will only be able to continue its intervention for another 1-2 years. We forecast that Russia will need to introduce special operations troops in order to decapitate the network-centric structure of ISIL. Due to Putin s aggressive personality, this is not out of the question and we project that Russia will introduce ground forces in 2-6 months, but due to operational costs, we project that Russia will not solidify itself as a regional hegemon. Analyst: Nicolas Graesser Faculty Advisor: Dr. H. David Gray 3

4 Russia: New Gas Pipeline to China Insufficient to Replace Europe Russia has sought to use its vast energy wealth as a political tool to influence European customers; however, it has failed to do so as while Europe needs Russia's gas, it is simultaneously the only market large enough to meet Russia's supply. Russia has sought to diminish its own reliance on Europe by looking to supply energy to China in the East, but this plan will not be successful due to difficulties building the pipeline and low Chinese demand. The Power-of-Siberia-2 pipeline to China will be one of the world's largest infrastructure projects, and Russia is not prepared to effectively build something of this scale. This pipeline is very expensive, and western sanctions over the Ukraine Crisis and decreasing petroleum revenues have made financing large investments increasingly difficult. Climate change is melting sub-arctic permafrost over vast swathes of land on which the pipeline would be built. Melting permafrost turns vast areas into soggy marsh on which building infrastructure is extremely difficult. Even if Russia does manage to secure financing and overcome technical difficulties with building, this project will take years to complete and will not decrease reliance on Europe in the near future. Russia's moves to shift energy to Asia will fail as China does not have a high demand for its energy. China's industrial slow-down has decreased its need for Russian energy sources, weakening the demand for energy while new sources of energy from Australia and Central Asian countries like Turkmenistan have increased energy supplies for China. Even if China's industrial output were to pick up again, the volume of the pipeline is too low for any sizable shift in supply from Europe to Asia to occur. While the pipeline might be able to send 28 billion cubic meters of gas to China per year, Gazprom alone exported billion cubic meters to Europe in Between the long-term likelihood of China's decreased demand for energy, increasing supplies from other parts of Asia, and the low capacity Russian pipelines to Asia, China is unlikely to serve as the replacement for European markets that Russia desires. Analyst Comment: Russia's attempts at using its monopolistic gas supply to much of Europe as leverage have rarely been successful, and its ability to use this lever is decreasing. Europe's reliance on Russian supply is decreasing due to new pipelines from central Asia through Turkey. Over time, Europe will break Russia's monopolistic supply through new sources of gas, but Russia will never be able to break Europe's monopolistic demand as no other market is suitable for its exports. Thus, Europe may eventually reverse Russia's attempts to use energy supply as leverage and use its own monopolistic demand to influence Russia. Analyst: Christian Haig Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H. Gray 4

5 Mexico: Implications of Fragmented Drug Cartels Recent law enforcement successes in disabling the heads of organizations involved in illicit drug trafficking and manufacturing in Mexico have opened the door to a new breed of drug cartel. Government efforts both nationally and internationally have deposed many of the established cartel leaders, but the impact of these successes may incite even more problems for Mexico. Repercussions of these new, fragmented cartels include rises in local violence across the country, greater opportunity for government and police corruption at the local and state levels, and a rise in civilian fear and distrust of the government. Rises in Local Violence across the Country The most recent statistics indicate that despite an approximate 14 percent decrease in reported homicides, kidnappings and extortions are on the rise by 25.7 percent and 29.1 percent, respectively. -With the old, established cartels breaking down, the new players are seeking to establish themselves by inciting fear in local communities -Lacking the international connections and muscle of the established cartels, the smaller gangs often resort to kidnapping, human trafficking, and theft to boost their income We anticipate that these smaller gangs will continue these offences in order to maintain their newfound, profitable hold over their portion of the drug supply chain. Greater Opportunity for Government and Police Corruption Though the government has made strides to decrease corruption at the federal level, corruption at the local and state level may be on the rise. -These new gangs are asserting their power by threatening and in certain cases assassinating local politicians in order to gain control of territory. -The local police forces are also extremely underfunded and undertrained making them easy targets for the gangs. Analysis suggests that political corruption will continue to play a major factor at the local level. Rise in Civilian Fear and Distrust Due to the increased violence and corruption discussed above, Mexican civilians now find themselves living in fear of local gangs and distrusting their community governments. -According to recent surveys, approximately 94 percent of total crime in Mexico went unreported or uninvestigated in The recent escape of Mexico s most powerful drug lord, Joaquin El Chapo Guzman from the most secure prison in Mexico has incited further civilian distrust in the government. Mexican civilians are likely to continue doubting their corrupt local governments and fearing those inciting violence in their communities. Analyst Comment: Although steps have been taken to combat Mexico s illicit drug problem, the consequences of doing so have created different issues for the country. The remaining established cartels are expected to fragment in the coming years, and the power struggle between small gangs vying for command will escalate. We anticipate further increases in local violence, political corruption, and civilian fear and distrust to occur as a result. Analyst: Hanna Eudy Faculty Advisor: David H. Gray 5

6 ISIS: Expanding Influence in Afghanistan ISIS is successfully expanding its influence amongst the previously Taliban controlled areas of Afghanistan. The extent of their expansion is not only in regards to political infiltration through violent and excessive force, but ISIS has implemented its radical education system in the local schools of young boys. The conflict of ISIS within Syria appears to be one that will eventually lead to the breakdown of ISIS through significant casualties and political break-up at the hands of al-assad's military aided by Putin military support, but ISIS is working on revamping the next generation of followers in an attempt to slow or reverse their deteriorating movement. ISIS has increased its presence in Afghanistan despite the Taliban insurgency within the country. -ISIS is reportedly present in 25 of the country's 35 provinces as of September Afghan forces believe ten percent of Taliban supporters are publicly declaring loyalty to as ISIS. - ISIS expansion into provinces of Afghanistan have allowed them control of narcotic stocks, in addition to their estimated $1 million a day (in February 2015) income from captured oil fields. ISIS will likely continue expansion funded by the captured narcotic, art, and oil industry. Additionally, it is highly probable that their increased funding will be spread to their fight in Syria against the Assad and Putin alliance. ISIS is actively using propaganda in Afghanistan to recruit followers and publicly challenge the authority of the Taliban insurgency. - Rauf Khadem is reportedly recruiting in Helmand and Farah provinces after leaving Iraq in ISIS has its influential branding in both Arabic and English in its 25 occupied provinces of Afghanistan. - The declaration of adherence to ISIS by Boko Haram of March 2015, has increased the number of supporters to the ISIS controlled areas of Afghanistan and the international playing field. ISIS will likely use their requested alliance from Boko Haram to further their international attention. Additionally, it is highly probable that ISIS will expand operations in the remaining provinces of Afghanistan and ensue a significant violent conflict against the Taliban insurgency. Afghanistan is not prepared to handle the growing presence of ISIS and its competition with Taliban insurgency. - Afghanistan currently has no Defense Minister following its rejection of the latest nominee, General Mohammed Afzal Ludin. - The US can only support the Afghanistan government against ISIS through air strikes, which has increasingly come under scrutiny because of civilian casualties. - The threat of ISIS expanding further within Afghanistan demands US attention and has potential to reverse the Obama plan to withdraw 9,800 US troops in Afghanistan by the end of 2016, which could hinder the international concerns of the US in other major conflicts. ISIS will continue its expansion within Afghanistan while taking full advantage of the political instability of the Afghan government. As the conflict in Syria continue, ISIS will likely use its funding gained in Afghanistan to support their fight in Syria and may call for their newly gained recruits and support to aid the Syrian battle. Analyst Comment: Despite the international focus on ISIS in Syria, ISIS has continued to expand unhindered in over half the provinces of Afghanistan. The Afghan government is ill equipped to handle the expansion of ISIS within Afghan borders. The presence of Taliban insurgency and ISIS expansion, in addition to instability within political seats of the Afghan government has required the attention of the US in this growing concern. The expansion of funds captured by ISIS through their expansion could potentially allow them endurance in the current Syrian conflict. ISIS will likely continue to root their ideology within the provinces they secure in hopes to strengthen and establish a permanent society of their desire. Analyst: Caroline Bunnell Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H. Gray 6

Global View Assessments Winter 2016

Global View Assessments Winter 2016 Russia: Complicating Matters in the Fight against the Islamic State Key Judgment: As Russia furthers its involvement in the Syrian civil war, there is a strong possibility that loyalist troops backed by