TOP Security. Concerns in Central Asia. CAISS, Almaty Paper 1

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1 TOP Security 2017 Concerns in Central Asia This brief report is a result of SSN workshop, entitled Future Directions in Central Asia and Key Strategic Trends CAISS, Almaty Paper 1 Almaty, 2017

2 Introduction Analyzing the current security situation in the Central Asian states, both country and regional dynamics, the workshop participants agreed on the following: Security Concerns in this region are understood to be not only hard security threats but also soft security challenges and human security problems. Security Concerns in the Central Asian states, and the region as a whole, can be divided between those which seriously influence current development and those with a high potential in the future, depending on how they will be addressed when they emerge. The bigger problems are connected with the internal developments of the states rather than with external interferences. Almost none of the third-party actors in the region have clear strategy towards Central Asia. As a result, the participants of the workshop have generally agreed on the list of key security concerns for the region, described hereinafter.

3 TOP Security Concerns in Central Asia 1. Regional Dissolution The region is seen by some as paying greater attention to its sovereignty and independence. an artificial political construct from the Soviet period. There is a de facto absence of an intraregional vision within Central Asia as a united political or economic region, where cultural, civilizational and linguistic similarities exist. For instance, Turkmenistan perceives itself more as a Caspian state, Kazakhstan as a Eurasian and others appear to be developing an orientation to China. While Turkmenistan neutral As for Uzbekistan, Tashkent keeps choosing its own way of development and integration with the neighboring states. Overall, external actors seem to offer Central Asian states much more than regional cooperation in terms of benefits and opportunities. status could be easily challenged, Kazakhstan is

4 2. Afghanistan Afghanistan is often seen as a source of problems for Central Asia. Narcotics trafficking flows northward from Afghanistan. suggested in recent years. At the same time, no particular interest has been shown or noticed from Central Asia to involve in the country s development so far. Likewise, there is a concern about the overall instability in that country, with a fear of a total state collapse in Afghanistan could adversely affect the Central Asian neighbors. 3. Violent Extremist Groups This includes the Taliban in Afghanistan, ISIS ( Da esh ), and indigenous extremist groups, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Some groups have conducted terrorist operations in Central Asia in the past and could do so again. A related issue is whether the US/NATO pulls out of Afghanistan, as has been Also, the concern of returning foreign fighters from Syria and Iraq exists, albeit the threat is

5 more for the future. in the region. Meanwhile, Central Asian states tend to update their CT strategies and laws, reform national security agencies and establish cooperation with external actors predominantly on a bilateral basis. Radicalization (not only religion-driven) and as a result, de-radicalization processes are to be faced by the majority of Central Asian states in a while. In addition, there is a huge lack of regional cooperation in CVE 4. China Discussions focused on the huge economic debt of the Central Asian states to China. In Tajikistan, for instance, this amount exceeds more than 60% of the country s GDP. This can significantly increase with the realization of One Belt One Road projects. PRC understands that most of this debt will not be paid back, so the question exist as to what China will ask from a Central

6 Asian state as compensation in the future. Of less concern was the possibility of future Chinese military involvement to protect its investments and projects. More realistic are continued Chinese territorial claims. republics attract China s investment not only by creating favorable conditions for investors, but also by designing government development programs that could be connected with the SREB as in Kazakhstan. Development of transport corridors has become a major priority and obsession for all land-locked Central Asian states. Lacking funds Central Asian 5. The Soviet Legacy Many of the experts saw this as a current problem (although it could remain an issue looking

7 ahead 10 years). In contrast to However, Soviet-era Russia, the Central Asian states are not oriented to the glory of the Soviet past. However, the Soviet period does maintain an influence, particularly with respect to the functioning of infrastructure, networks and transportation routes are getting outdated and are deteriorating. This is hampering trade and commerce throughout the region. the political and economic systems, as well as political and strategic culture of the Central Asian elites who are generally not ready to enact reforms. Important is the problem of leadership succession - be it a tool either to maintain status Q or to expect certain changes. Moreover, border controls and legal regimes to regulate these borders are complicated and hinder trade. These are areas for potential development in the coming years if the Central 6. Regional Connectivity Central Asia is a region that seeks to be connected to the broader, global economy. Asia is to truly be connected. Added to this is the critical internet and technological connections required for greater communication and

8 commercial access. 7. National Self-Identification and Rise of Nationalism Nationalism has been a challenging conservative norms in societies of Central Asia, include sexual education, LGBTQ-related issues, gender and human rights. challenge since independence, and appears to be increasing in intensity, not decreasing. These range from a crisis of the self-identification, such as whether a person is Kazakh or Kazakhstani to the idea of stability over development. 8. Water Security, the Environment, and Climate Change A host of environmental challenges face Central Asia today and increasingly in the future. Negative consequences include an increased intolerance to other ethnic groups, and the rise of nationalism as a political instrument for political power. Difficult borders and even ethnic enclaves exacerbate these challenges. Other issues, These include the inefficient use of water, and disputes over water rights between upstream

9 and downstream states. Phenomena associated with climate change, such as the melting of glaciers are also differences are all creating potential flashpoints for conflict in some of the Central Asian states. having an impact. Environmental degradation as a result of the absence of recycling system, significant pollution (due to the move of Chinese environmentally dangerous enterprises to the Central Asia states), and the inefficient management of nuclear waste are all factors to consider. Over the past decade and into the next, the issue of migrant workers (from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in particular) has been problematic for these countries. These challenge sustainable 9. Demography and Migration Population growth rates, a greater imbalance of wealthy and poor, and communal development of the states, people s welfare and bilateral relations with Russia and China as top education and labor destinations.

10 Considering recent integration projects and demographic trends, the Russian language would most likely lose its lingua franca status in Kazakhstan and its famous model of interethnic harmony could be challenged. cultivating its image abroad. Several regional security organizations frame how Russia works with the Central Asian states. That said, there are concerns that the possibility of a Crimean scenario (e.g. in 10. Russia Russia, as a former co-national Northern Kazakhstan) still exists. in the Soviet Union, sees itself as the true successor to that country. Therefore, its view of the Central Asian states is based on setting the terms of regional relations and security. The Kremlin itself seeks to combat myth-making and Also, with respect to Russia s own power, is more dangerous for the region to have a weaker Russia or stronger Russia? anti-russian information campaigns in mass and social media, while stressing

11 Contributors Anna Gussarova, Kazakhstan Azadeh Zamirirad, Germany Dauren Aben, Kazakhstan Dena Sholk, United States Farkhod Aminjonov, Uzbekistan Hanna Shelest, Ukraine Jeffrey Payne, United States Lidiya Parkhomchik, Kazakhstan Luba von Hauff, Germany Markus Kaiser, Germany Mirzokhid Rakhimov, Uzbekistan Ozge Nur Ogutcu, Turkey Ravshan Sobirzoda, Tajikistan Roger Kangas, Unites States Svetlana Dzardanova, Turkmenistan Talant Sultanov, Kyrgyzstan

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