2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq: Sampling Method and Descriptive Statistics

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2 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No Opinion Poll in Iraq: Sampling Method and Descriptive Statistics Yamao Dai (Associate Professor, Kyushu University) Introduction As a part of the research project Relational Studies on Global Crises, we have conducted an opinion poll in Iraq in 2017 in order to grasp how Iraqi people perceive statehood, socio political, and economic situation in the postconflict society, using a common survey questionnaire developed by the researchers of Group B02 Cross-border Non-State Networks. Objectives of our research project can be summarized by the following two points: First, it attempts to grasp how conflict is related to people s perception of statehood for cases under or after conflict, such as Syria, Iraq and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is expected to give us a comparative perspective on reconsidering resilience and framework of the existing nation states; Second, by exploring the dynamics of communities and networks that are inter-related and structured beyond the present boundary of the nation states, it aims to reveal people s diverse images and notions of state that is different from nation state. We have conducted an original and innovative opinion poll to achieve these objectives. The primary purpose of our survey is to grasp how Iraqi people perceive the recent conflict, statehood and various external actors. While most surveys typically assume that people accept the legitimacy of the state, we ask various questions to analyze to what extent people support or do not support the current setup of the state, and why. We also ask questions about people s cross-border networks of family and relatives. These questions, rarely asked in the typical opinion poll, enable us to explore the effect of people's cross-border relations and networks. As for the state institutions, we ask not only about people's trust on each institution, but also about how people actually use institutions in different situations, in order to analyze to what extent the state institutions are actually functioning in the society. Overall, by asking a set of questions that are rarely asked in a typical opinion poll, we attempt to explore the relations between the people, the state and various communities and networks within and beyond the present boundary of the state. In this research report, I present the details of the sampling method as well as the descriptive statistics of the survey results. The section I presents the sampling method. The section II then presents the descriptive statistics of the survey results. I. Sampling Method In conducting the survey, we had full support of the University of Baghdad to finalize the contents of the questionnaire, doing sampling, making interviews with respondents, and inputting data. 1. Schedule Dai Yamao sent the first draft of questionnaire on May 1, Finalizing the questionnaire after discussing the contents with the research team of the University of Baghdad during May 2 to May 30, Training of research team in Iraq during May 30 to June 6, Field survey during June 7 to September,

3 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Completed data entry on December 25, Survey Respondent 1000 male and female Iraqi nation aged 17 to 94 living in Iraq. 3. Survey Method Door to door individual personal interview in Arabic and Kurdish. Number of survey staffs: Sampling Method Samples to be pulled out in the following manner. 1) Determine samples by the stratified two-stage random sampling method based on the census of the Statistic Bureau of the Iraqi Ministry of Planning in ) First, select 9 prefectures (or governorates listed in the following cross tabulation chart) and second, distribute sample based on the population of each ethnic/ sectarian group (see also the following cross tabulation chart). 3) Area sampling. Interviewed 1844 Iraqi until collecting 1000 samples. The detail of sampling is shown in the following chart. Sampling: Cross Tabulation of Prefecture and Ethno Sectarian Groups Ethno Sectarian Groups Sunni Arab Shi ite Arab Christian Kurd Others Refused Total Irbir Size % Sulaymaniya Size % Kirkuk Size % Salah al-din Size % Diyala Size % Anbar Size % Baghdad Size % Najaf Size % Basra Size % Total Size % Urban and Rural Proportion: Iraq is basically urban society, which reflects the proportion of sampling. Urban Rural

4 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Ethno Sectarian Proportion (D-9): Ethno sectarian representation is largely relevant to population distribution of Iraq, with slightly smaller sample size of Shia population. 8.1% 4.5% 26.2% Sunni 14.1% Shia Kurd Other Refused 47.1% Sample and Target Population: As we had difficulty in collecting samples in all prefectures, we attempted to represent samples of those prefecture in which we were not able to collect to other prefecture where similar ethno sectarian composition can be seen. Sample size, percentage of sample, target population, and percentage of target population are shown in the following chart. Prefecture Sample Size % of Total Sample Target Population % of Total Population Kurd majority Sunni majority (mixed) Shia majority Dohuk n.d n.d Irbil Sulaymaniya Ninawa n.d n.d Kirkuk Salah al-din Diyala Anbar Baghdad Babil n.d n.d Wasit n.d n.d Karbala n.d n.d Najaf Qadisiya n.d n.d Maysan n.d n.d Dhi Qar n.d n.d Muthanna n.d n.d Basra Source: Target population is cited from Central Statistical Organization Iraq ( 3

5 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Age: As Iraq is a society with many younger generation, sample also contains larger number of younger generation, as shown in the following histogram. Mean=36.89, Standard deviation= (See demographics D-2 at the end of this paper) Education: We can observe a little deviation in sample to those who have higher educational background as shown in the following histogram. Mean=6.26, Standard deviation= (See demographics D-3 at the end of this paper) 4

6 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Income: Average income of the sample is relatively low as shown in the following histogram. Considered the above mentioned high educational background, Iraq society has a large number of highly educated with low income population, which reveals serious socio economic problems of post-war society (see the cross tabulation of income and education in the next page as well). Means=2.312, Standard deviation= (See demographics D-8 at the end of this paper) Cross Tabulation of Income (D-8) and Education (D-3): Higher educational background with considerably low income population is one of the important feature as well as serious problems of postwar Iraq. See also scatter diagram below (See demographics at the end as well). Education Income Can read Primary Secondary High Vocationa University Post Total Illiterate University and write school school school l school graduate graduate Under US$100 Number % US$100~500 Number % US$500~1,000 Number % US$1,00~1,500 Number % US$1,500~2,000 Number % Over US$2,000 Number % Refused Number % Total Number %

7 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Education: 1=Iliterate~9=Post graduate: Income: 1=Under US$100 per month~6=over US$2,000. II. Descriptive Statistics This section reports the basic results of the opinion poll; frequencies of responses for each survey question. The survey is divided into the following 11 sections. Section Topics 1 Attitudes towards the external actors (countries and international organizations) 2 Cross-border networks of family and relatives 3 Evaluation of Policy / Task for the country 4 Evaluation of the pre-war past and expectation of the future 5 Exposure to the media 6 Attitudes towards the ideologies 7 Attitudes towards the political parties 8 Transnational, national, sub-national and local identities 9 Attitudes towards the statehood and border change 10 Trust in institutions 11 Demographic variables 6

8 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Result 1-1. To what extend do you like or dislike the following countries and organizations? Place your view on this scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means I like very much and 5 means I do not like very much. If you do not have a particular opinion, choose (3). If you do not know, please choose (6). (1) I like very much (2) I like (3) Neutral (4) I do not like (5) I do not like very much (6) I do not know The U.S. Number % Russia Number % The U.K. Number % France Number % Chaina Number % Germany Number % Saudi Arabia Number % Turkey Number % Iran Number % Japan Number % NATO Number % EU Number % UN Number % Total 7

9 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Cross Tabulation of Attitude toward Saudi Arabia (1-1-7) and Ethno Sectarian Group: Shia tends to be very negative to Saudi Arabia, while Sunni and Kurds be positive toward it. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurds Other Refused like very much like neutral do not like do not like very much Cross Tabulation of Attitude toward Iran (1-1-9) and Ethno Sectarian Group: Shia tends to be positive to Iran while Sunni and Kurds be negative toward it. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurds Other Refused like very much like neutral do not like do not like very much 1-2. Which country or organization do you think has best contributed to your living condition? The U.S Russia The U.K France China German Saudi Arabia Turkey Iran

10 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No Japan NATO EU UN Other Korea UAE Jordan UNISEF Red Crescent UNESCO All the countries mentioned none Sweden Kuwait Syria Contributing Countries: China is considered as greatest economic contributor, which reflects China s active participation in post-war Iraq s development fields. (number) Which country or organization do you think is the greatest external threat for you? The U.S Russia The U.K France China German Saudi Arabia Turkey Iran Japan NATO

11 EU UN Jordan Israel Kuwait Other Opinion Poll in Iraq External Threat: The U.S. is considered as greatest threat followed by neighboring major powers; Iran and Saudi Arabia. (number) Cross Tabulation of the Greatest External Threat and Ethno Sectarian Group: Sectarian inclination can be clearly observed in Iraqi perception of external threat. As shown in this chart, Shia tends to perceive Saudi Arabia, which can be seen as leader of Sunni countries, as the greatest threat after the U.S., while Sunni tends to consider Iran, which is the leader of Shia, as greatest external threat. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Shia Sunni Kurd Other Refuse to reply U.S Saudi Arabia Iran Other 10

12 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No Do you have any family members or relatives outside your country? Yes No Please list up to 10 countries in which your family or relatives live, and for each country, please choose the reason(s) why your family or relatives moved to that country. If you have more than two family or relatives in one country, you may choose more than two reasons for such country. Marriage Work Study To seek a refuge Was born in that country I do not know Other Treatment Sightseeing Pilgrimage Total Turkey Germany Norway France Belgium Sweden Saudi Arabia Australia Syria Finland Iran The U.S Russia Egypt Lebanon The U.K Austria Netherlands UAE Greek Argentina Jordan Qatar Canada Denmark Tunisia China Georgia Malaysia Italy India Kuwait Total Country where Family or Relatives live: Turkey, refugee-accepted European countries such as Sweden and Germany, and the U.S. are listed in top 4 countries in which respondent s family or relatives live. (number) 11

13 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Turkey Sweden Germany The U.S. France Egypt Australia The U.K. Jordan Chaina Lebanon India Norway Finland Iran Canada Austria Denmark UAE Russia Saudi Arabia Syria Belgium Netherlands Italy Greek Qatar Tunisia Algentina Georgia Malaysia Kuwait Reason of living abroad: To seek refuge is listed on the top, followed by study and work. 1.0% 1.0% 5.3% 1.2% 11.2% 15.0% 65.4% Refugee Study Work Other Marriage Born DK 3-1 In your opinion, how important is it for the state to deal with the following tasks? Place your view on this scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means very important and 5 means not important at all. If you do not have a particular opinion, choose (3), which means neutral. If you do not know, please choose (6). (1) Very (2) (4) Not (5) Not at all (6) I do not (3) Neutral important Important important important know Total To protect the freedom of speech and media Number % To fight against corruption Number

14 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 % To provide welfare and social security Number % To develop the economy Number % To establish a functioning central government Number % To maintain the public security Number % To strengthen the awareness and cohesion of the people as Iraqis Number % To realize stability in each community Number % To overcome problems between the central government and the KRG Number % To realize reconciliation with supporters of former regime through national dialogue Number % To exclude supporters of the former regime Number % Most of the tasks are considered as important except reconciliation policies that respondent tends to have divided opinions. Cross Tabulation of Reconciliation (3-1-10) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Shia tends to be negative toward reconciliation. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refuse to Answer Very Important/Important not important/not at all not Know 13

15 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Cross Tabulation of Exclusion (3-1-11) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Sunni tends to be negative toward exclusion of former regime s supporters. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refuse to Answer Very Important/important Not important/not at all not Know 3-2 Among the tasks 1-11 listed in the previous question, which do you think is the most important? To protect the freedom of speech and media To fight against corruption To provide welfare and social security To develop the economy To establish a functioning central government To maintain the public security To strengthen the awareness and cohesion of the people as Iraqis To realize stability in each community To overcome problems between the central government and the KRG To realize reconciliation with supporters of former regime through national dialogue To exclude supporters of the former regime Most Important Task: Most of Iraqis consider the issues connected more directory to their daily life such as anti-corruption, functional government, and security as most important. (number) 14

16 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No most important task 4-1 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Place your view on this scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means strongly agree and 5 means strongly disagree. If you do not have a particular opinion, choose (3), which means neutral. If you do not know, please choose (6). (1) Strongly (5) Strongly (6) I do not (2) Agree (3) Neutral (4) Disagree agree disagree know Total Political and social conditions in Iraq after the political change in 2003 are better that those before the invasion in 2003 Number % Three years later, political and social conditions in Iraq will be better than now Number % Perspective: Iraqis tend to be dissatisfied to current situation and have difficulty to have bright future perspectives. (number) strongly agree agree neutral disagree strongly disagree DK became better after 2003 will be better in 3 years 15

17 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq 5-1 Which media do you use the most to obtain daily news? Please choose one Newspaper TV Radio Internet Social Networking Service such as Facebook and Twitter Conversation Other media Media: TV and internet are mostly utilized in Iraqi society. 0.2% 3.0% 9.1% 16.2% 46.0% 21.6% 3.9% Newspaper TV Radio Internet SNS conversation other Name of media Facebook Instagram Arabiya Internet Al-Jazira Channel Sabah Newspaper Al-Maqahi Iraqiya Huna Baghdad BBC Al-Sharq al-ausat Sharqiya Karbala Channnel Rusiya Yawm Fayha Mayadin Channel Al-Faziyun Sumariya Hurr al-iraq

18 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Mashriq Qanat Anbar Qanat Farruja Qanat Salah al-din Al-Ahd Channel Al-Furqan Channel Radio Dijula Qanat al-rashid Furat Al-Gaybar Program Qanat Kurdistan Dwtv Itijah CNN Qanat Afaq Latif Channel MBC Ruraw Channel Al-Ta hi Channel Twitter Yahoo News Watsaab Program Wasail al-iuram Sky News Radio Daily Newspaper Qanat Rafidayn FM Radio Marbad Radio Telegram Muridi Radio Sawa Baladi Channel Do you use internet services, such as SNS or Blog, to send out information? Yes No How often do you use the internet services to spread information? Several times per day Once per day Several times per week Once per week Several times per month Once per month Less often than once per month Total

19 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq What is the most important purpose of using internet services to send out information? To express my opinions on politics and society To enjoy communication with family and friends For my own business activities Other reason Total What is the reason for not using the internet services to send out information? Because I am too busy Because I do not have an internet connection Because I do not know how to use them Because I want to avoid unnecessary troubles Because I am not interested in it Other reason Total To what extent do you support or do not support the ideologies listed below? Place your view on this scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means Strongly support and 5 means Do not support at all. If you do not have a particular opinion, choose (3), which means neutral. If you do not know, please choose (6). (1) Strongly support (2) Support (3) Neutral (4) Do not support much (5) Do not support at all (6) I do not know 6-1. Arab nationalism Number % Iraqi nationalism Number % Kurd nationalism Number % Islamism Number % Liberalism Number % Tribalism Number % Sectarianism Number % Socialism Number % Existentalism Number Total 18

20 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 % Ideologies: Iraqi nationalism (6-2) is the most supported ideologies, while opinions with regard to Islamism (6-4) are divided among Iraqis. The amount of deviation according to ethno sectarian groups cannot be observed except Kurd nationalism (6-3) that Kurds tend to support more (see the graph below which shows cross tabulation of Kurd nationalism and ethno sectarian groups). (number) Strongly support Support Neutral Do not support Do not support at all DK Arab Nationalism Iraqi Nationalism Islamism 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly support/support Netural Do not support/at all 7-1 Which party do you support? State of Law Alliance (Maliki faction) State of Law Alliance (Abadi faction) Muwatin Alliance (ISCI) Ahrar (Sadr) Muttahidun (Nujayfi) Arabiya (Mutlaq) Wataniya (I. Allawi) Iraqi Alliance (S. Juburi)

21 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq KDP PUK Gorran Civil Tendency I do not support any Party Support: Liberal secular parties such as Wataniya and Civil Tendency are supported most; then followed by Shi ite ruling parties such as State of Law (both factions) and Sadrist party. (number) Cross Tabulation of Party Support and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Party support is basically determined by ethno sectarian differences; majority of supporters of the Shi ite parties are Shia, those of Sunni parties are Sunni, and likewise those of Kurdish parties are Kurds, although there are exceptions. On the other hand, secular parties such as Wataniya and Civil Tendency have different composition of supporters. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused 20

22 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No What is the reason for your support for the party? Leader Policy Cleanness (Free from corruption) Ideology Ethnicity and/or Religion Cross Tabulation of Party Support and Reason for this: Supporters of ISCI and Sadr tend to consider leader as important element; while supporters of Abadi faction of State of Law, Wataniya, and Civil Tendency give priority to policy when they decide to party support. Cleanness is important element for Sadrist supporters and supporters of Civil Tendency. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lerder Policy Cleanness Ideology Ethnicity/Relition Which of the following statements best describes the reason for your support for the party? Because of the family name of the leader of this party Because the leader of this party has a higher academic degree Because the leader of this party is well known Because I like the leader of this party Because I have a personal connection with the leader of this party Because I expect improvement of my living conditions if the leader of this party gains political power Because the leader of this party controls the government Because the leader of this party is from the same ethnic or religious group as mine Because the leader of this party has his own coercion forces or militias Total

23 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Which of the following statements best describes the reason for your support for the party? Because I always support the policies of this party Because the policies of this party are helpful for the national interest Because the policies of this party are helpful for my region Because the policies of this party are helpful for the national security Because the policies of this party are helpful for the economic development Because the policies of this party are better than those of other parties Total Which of the following statements best describes the reason for your support for the party? Because this party is not involved in the corruption Because this party is fighting against corruption I do not support any Total Which of the following statements best describes the reason for your support for the party? Because I believe in this ideology Because I believe this party is the best represent this ideology Total Which of the following statements best describes the reason for your support for the party? Because this party is supporting my ethnic or religious group Because a cadre and most members of this party are from my ethnic or religious group Because this party is reflecting voices of all ethnic and religious groups Total If the elections will be held tomorrow, which party will you vote for? State of Law Alliance (Maliki faction) State of Law Alliance (Abadi faction) Muwatin Alliance (ISCI) Ahrar (Sadr) Muttahidun (Nujayfi) Arabiya (Mutlaq) Wataniya (I. Allawi) Iraqi Alliance (S. Juburi) KDP PUK Gorran Civil Tendency Independent party Secular party Parliament Other I do not know I will not vote at all

24 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Party for Vote: The highest percentage of answer is I will not vote, which might show political distrust and difficulty to have a hope to change political situation by casting vote in election. (number) Percentage of Casting Vote to the Same Party one supports: This graph shows cross tabulation of party support and party for vote, which is considered to indicate strength of each party s constituencies. As shown, Maliki faction of SOL, Sadr, and KDP are considered to have strong constituencies. (%) Among the following communities or regions, which do you identify with most strongly? Choose up to three from the communities or regions listed below The strongest Islamic World Arab World The Middle East Mashriq

25 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Iraq Kurdistan Region Your Prefecture Your sectarian group (Sunni, Shia, and etc.,) Your town or village Second strongest Islamic World Arab World The Middle East Mashriq Iraq Kurdistan Region Your Prefecture Your sectarian group (Sunni, Shia, and etc.,) Your town or village Third strongest Islamic World Arab World The Middle East Mashriq Iraq Kurdistan Region Your Prefecture Your sectarian group (Sunni, Shia, and etc.,) Your town or village Identification: Iraq, your prefecture, then your town/ village are the most frequent reply with regard to identification. (number) Strongest Second Third 24

26 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Place your view on this scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means strongly agree and 5 means strongly disagree. If you do not have a particular opinion, choose (3), which means neutral. If you do not know, please choose (6). (1) Strongly (5) Strongly (6) I do not (2) Agree (3) Neutral (4) Disagree agree disagree know Total Iraq should be centralized state with its capital in Baghdad Number % Iraq should establish a federal system by strengthening local governments Number % Iraq should establish a regional government with political power in Sunni majority areas Number % Iraq should establish a regional government with political power in Shiite majority areas Number % The Kurdistan Regional Government should be independent Number % Iraqi central government should allocate political and economic power to local tribal communities Number % Cross Tabulation of Centralization (9-1-1) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Majority of Iraqis regardless of sectarian groups, except Kurd, consider centralized state with its capital Baghdad as important or very important. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly support Support Neutral Do not support Do not support at all 25

27 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Cross Tabulation of Formation of Sunni Regional Government (9-1-3) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Mostly negative attitude to establishment of Sunni regional government, but around 20% of Sunni and 40% of Kurds have relatively positive opinion. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly support Support Neutral Do not support Do not support at all Cross Tabulation of Independence of KRG (9-1-5) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Only Kurd tends to consider the independence of Kurdistan Region positively. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly support Support Neutral Do not support Do not support at all [showing the map to the respondents] This is the map showing the internationally recognized border of your country. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? (1) Strongly (5) Strongly (6) I do not (2) Agree (3) Neutral (4) Disagree Total agree disagree know It is acceptable to change the internationally recognized border of Iraq Number

28 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 (1) Strongly (5) Strongly (6) I do not (2) Agree (3) Neutral (4) Disagree Total agree disagree know It is acceptable to change the internationally recognized border of Iraq % Cross Tabulation of Border Change and Ethno Sectarian Groups: All sectarian groups reply negatively to change of Iraqi national border, with slight exception of Kurds who might seek their independent KRG government. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly agree/ agree Disagree/ strongly disagree Nutral/DK Which of the following statements best describes the reason why you agree with this statement? Because change of the border will lead to political stability Because change of the border will lead to improvement of my living conditions Because change of the border will strengthen the religious ties Because change of the border will strengthen the ethnic ties Because change of the border is historically correct Because the border of the country is not necessary at all Total Which of the following statements best describes the reason why you disagree with this statement? Because change of the border will lead to political instability Because change of the border will lead to deterioration of my living conditions Because change of the border will weaken the religious ties Because change of the border will weaken the ethnic ties Because change of the border is historically incorrect Because the border of the country is necessary Total

29 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq 10-1 To what extent do you trust or distrust the following institutions? Place your view on this scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means strongly trust and 5 means strongly distrust. If you do not have a particular opinion, choose (3), which means neutral. If you do not know, please choose (6). (1) Strongly (5) Strongly (6) I do not (2) Trust (3) Neutral (4) Distrust trust distrust know Total President of Iraq Number % Prime Minister of Iraq Number % Iraqi parliament Number % Court Number % Military Number % Police Number % Political party Number % Mayor of your governorate Number % Parliament of your governorate Number % Mayor of your municipality Number % Parliament of your municipality Number % Media Number % NGO Number % Religious leaders Number % Tribal Chiefs Number %

30 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Cross Tabulation of Trust to the Prime Minister of Iraq (10-1-2) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Every ethno sectarian groups, except minority (Other), show strong distrust toward the Prime Minister. Other state apparatuses (such as parliament, court, governorate parliament, and police, except military that is relatively trusted) and official figures (such as president and mayor) have similar tendency of distrust. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly trust Trust Neutral Distrust Strongly distrust Cross Tabulation of Trust to Political Party (10-1-7) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Political parties have almost no trust from almost all ethno sectarian groups in Iraq, which also reflects the political distrust shown in 7-1 (The highest percentage of answer to the question If the elections will be held tomorrow, which party will you vote for? is I will not vote ). 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly trust Trust Neutral Distrust Strongly distrust 29

31 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Cross Tabulation of Trust to Religious Leader ( ) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Similar to the lack of trust toward state apparatus and official figures, religious leader also tends not to be trusted especially among Sunni and Kurds. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly trust Trust Neutral Distrust Strongly distrust Cross Tabulation of Trust to Tribal Chief ( ) and Ethno Sectarian Groups: Tribal chief is also not very much trusted among all ethno sectarian groups, even though tribe and its chief has been said to have great influence in Iraqi society. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunni Shia Kurd Other Refused Strongly trust Trust Neutral Distrust Strongly distrust 30

32 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No When you are facing following problems, whom do you talk to? Among the options listed below from (1) to (14), choose top three, to whom you talk most frequently When you get robbed by a mugger: Most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you get robbed by a mugger: Second most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you get robbed by a mugger: Third most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives

33 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Friends and neighbors Criminal Case: When Iraqis get robbed by a mugger, they tend to consult to police first, then family and relatives, central government, and friends and neighbors, which reflects expected reaction. (number) Most frequently Secind frequently Third frequently When you have a trouble with family and relatives regarding inheritance of assets: Most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you have a trouble with family and relatives regarding inheritance of assets: Second most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police

34 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you have a trouble with family and relatives regarding inheritance of assets: Third most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors Civil Case: When Iraqis have a trouble in inheritance of assets, they tend to consult to tribal chief after family, even though tribal chief is not very much trusted (see ). (number) Most frequently Secind frequently Third frequently 33

35 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq When you are looking for a job: Most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you are looking for a job: Second most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you are looking for a job: Third most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors

36 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No. 2 Seeking Employment: When Iraqis are looking for job, they tend to resort to the central government first, and then consult to family/ relatives, political party leader, and mayor of the governorate. It can be said that Iraqis tend to consider that providing job opportunity is a duty of the government, even though they tend to distrust it (see ). In other words, there is no trust but huge amount of expectation to the central government. (number) Most frequently Secind frequently Third frequently When you are in economically difficult situations: Most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you are in economically difficult situations: Second most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military

37 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When you are in economically difficult situations: Third most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors Economic Difficulties: The answer is predictable with regard to economic difficulty. (number) Most frequently Secind frequently Third frequently 36

38 RSGC-Online Paper Series No. 4: Research Report No When your area needs more roads, schools or hospitals: Most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When your area needs more roads, schools or hospitals: Second most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives Friends and neighbors When your area needs more roads, schools or hospitals: Third most frequently Central government Mayor or parliament of your governorate Mayor or parliament of your municipality Military Police Political party leader Hashd al-shaʻbi or Tribal force Leader of your local community Tribal Chief Religious leader NGO Colleagues in the workplace Family and relatives

39 2017 Opinion Poll in Iraq Friends and neighbors Need for Infrastructure: Iraqis tend to resort to central government and regional governments (mayor or parliament of both governorate and municipality) when they are facing to needs of infrastructure such as roads, schools, or hospital. It can be said that Iraqis tend to consider that infrastructure improvement is a duty of the government, even though they tend to distrust it (see ). In other words, there is no trust but huge amount of expectation to the central government. (number) Most frequently Secind frequently Third frequently 10-3 Regarding your choice for Q 10-2, why do you talk to the people or organization you've chosen? For each people or organization you've chosen above, please choose the reason that best describes your reason to do so When you get robbed by a mugger: Most frequently Because they are close to political power and influential political parties Because they have the economic or financial power to solve the problem Because it is the custom of my community to do so When you get robbed by a mugger: Second most frequently Because they are close to political power and influential political parties Because they have the economic or financial power to solve the problem Because it is the custom of my community to do so When you get robbed by a mugger: Third most frequently Because they are close to political power and influential political parties Because they have the economic or financial power to solve the problem Because it is the custom of my community to do so