Serge Galam. Sociophysics. A Physicist's Modeling of Psycho-political Phenomena. 4^ Springer

Transcription

1 Serge Galam Sociophysics A Physicist's Modeling of Psycho-political Phenomena 4^ Springer

2 The Reader's Guide to a Unique Book of Its Kind References xvii xxiii Part I Sociophysics: Setting the Frame 1 What is Sociophysics About? Science Fiction and Asimov's Foundation Syndrome What Makes Sense and What Does Not with Asimov's Fictional Psychohistory Predicting the Future Is Not Possible Historical Vs. Ahistorical Sciences Small Groups, Large Groups, Not so Simple A Mathematician Could Not Have Done It, a Physicist Could, Maybe A Parenthesis on the Fall of Empires Time for New Paradigms Sociophysics, a Possible Novel Hard Science: Not a Zero Risk Path Discovering the Limits of Human Freedom Opens the path to Social Freedom 16 References 19 2 The Question: Do Humans Behave like Atoms? My Basic Philosophy Telling the Truth About What Indeed Physics Is and What It Is Not Physics Does Not Care About Mathematical Rigor Implementing a Physics-like Approach Outside Physics But Indeed, Do Humans Behave Like Atoms? Building Up an "Atom-Individual" Connection Our Bare Methodology 34 tx

3 x 2.8 To Sum up 37 References 39 3 Sociophysics: The Origins The First Days Breaking the Secret of Critical Phenomena The Physicist's Corner The First Days, the First Fight From Claim to Demonstration The Story Behind the Scene More About Academic Freedom Surviving Within Physics by Not Playing Tennis Breaking the Gap with a Social Scientist Changing My Strategy: Back to the World of Physics The Secret One Shot International Seminar The Rising Sun of Sociophysics When Too Much Is Too much Claiming the Paternity of Sociophysics Reorientating My Strategy Again to Join a Social Sciences Group 63 References 66 4 Sociophysics: Weaknesses, Achievements, and Challenges The Essential Challenges of Sociophysics Sociophysics: A New Field Is Emerging Deciding the Future of Sociophysics Sociophysics: Epistemological Foundations Flashback to the Origins The Soviet-Like Rewriting of the History of Sociophysics Fatherhood with a Touch of Humor Basic Weaknesses of Growing Sociophysics The Positive Achievements of Sociophysics so Far The First Sociophysics Successful Prediction of a Precise Event Taking Risks to Validate Sociophysics When the Prediction Turns Out to be True When a Prediction Fails Proposal to Establish a Road Map What the Climatologists Did with the IPCC Should Not Be Repeated 87 References 88

4 xi Part II Discovering the Wonderful (and Maybe Scary) World of Sociophysics 5 Sociophysics: An Overview of Emblematic Founding Models In a Few Words Decision Making Bottom-up Democratic Voting Terrorism Coalitions Versus Fragmentation Public Opinion 97 References 97 6 Universal Features of Group Decision Making The Strike Phenomenon The Model The Operating Mechanism The Overlap with the Physical Model The Novel Counterintuitive Social Highlights Achievements of the Model How Do Groups Make Their Decisions? The Symmetrical Individual Versus the Symmetrical Group The Random Symmetry Breaking Choice Anticipating the Group Choice Individuals Are Often Not Symmetrical Ill Life Is Not a Paradise Some Emblematic Illustrations of the Model The Leader Effect The Overlap with the Physical Model The Model's Achievements 118 References The Dictatorship Paradox of Democratic Bottom-up Voting The Local Majority Rule Model Incorporating the Inertia Effect of Being the Ruler From Probabilistic to Deterministic Voting The Magic Formula for Presidency A Simulation to Visualize the Dictatorship Effect of Democratic Voting From Two to Three Competing Parties The Overlap with the Physical Model Achievements of the Model 135 References 137

5 xii 8 The Dynamics of Spontaneous Coalition-Fragmentation Versus Global Coalitions The Two-Country Problem The Unstable Three-Country Problem Superposing Current Pair Bonds to Historical Ones From Binary to a Multiple Coalitions The Overlap with the Physical Model Achievements of the Mode] 153 References Terrorism and the Percolation of Passive Supporters The Geometry of Terrorism Local Versus Global Terrorism: A Unified Frame What Is to Be Done? The Various Flags of a Terrorist Group The Overlap with the Physical Model Achievements of the Model 168 References The Modeling of Opinion Dynamics An Overview Why Is Public Opinion Often Conservative? The Local Majority Model and the Existence of Biases The Appearance of Nonthreshold Dynamics Mixing the Group Sizes Heterogeneous Agents and the Contrarian Effect Thresholdless Driven Coexistence The One-Sided Inflexible Effect and the Global Wanning Issue The Thresholdless Case Extending the Competition to Three Opinions The Reshuffling Effect and Rare Event Nucleation The Overlap with Physical Systems and Other Sociophysics Models Achievements of the Model In the Meantime 199 References By Way of Caution 203 Part III Democratic Voting in Bottom-Up Hierarchical Structures: From Advantages and Setbacks to Dictatorship Paradoxes 12 Highlights of the Part Dictatorships Can Be Democratic 209

6 xiii 12.2 What It Is About The Wonderful World of Democracy Not Ruling Is Bad for You Big Is Better What Matters The Strategic Key Visualizing the Democratic-Driven Dictatorship Twist The Key Configurations to Infiltrate a Party Life Is More Risky with Three Competing Parties Eastern European Communist Collapse Was Not Sudden 220 References Basic Mechanisms for the Perfect Democratic Structure Starting from a Naive View of Former Communist Organizations Setting Up the Simplest Form of a Voting Process The Single Random Small Group Voting Scheme Fluctuations, Group Sizes, and Democratic Balance Limits of the Single Group Voting Scheme Including Even-Sized Voting Groups Setting Up the Perfect Democratic Structure The Dynamics Driven by Repeated Democratic Voting Some Comments About Zero Going to Applications The Practical Scheme The Physicist's Corner: Trying to Be a Little More Mathematical The Magic Formula What It Means in Terms of Global Size The Physicist's Corner: To Make It Simpler Putting a Limit on the Global Size Touching on a Fundamental Aspect of Nature, Both Physical and Human Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena Revisiting the Practical Scheme Revisiting the Magic Formula Rare Dictatorial Events Versus Antidemocratic Ones Another Viewpoint The Physicist's Corner From Rare Antidemocratic Events to the Radical Efficiency of Geometric Nesting Monitoring the Rare Antidemocratic Bottom Configurations When the Radical Efficiency Turns Nasty 286

7 xiv 15.6 More About Hierarchies Randomness Is Sufficient at the Bottom Geography and Multisize Combination of Voting Groups A Digression of About a Fifty Percent Score: What Is the Meaning of a Majority? 294 References Dictatorship Paradoxes of Democratic Voting in Hierarchical Structures The Inertial Effect of Being in Power The Dramatic Effect of Tie Break Voting in the Single Varying the Voting Group Size From the Perfect Democratic Structure to the Perfect The Dynamics Driven by Repeated Democratic Voting The Physicist's Corner From the Magic to the Machiavelli Formula The Physicist's Corner Global Size, the Practical Scheme, the Magic Formula Global Size The Practical Scheme The Physicist's Corner The Magic Formula The Physicist's Corner The Super Magic Formula The Physicist's Corner What Happens to the Rare Antidemocratic Events? The Minimum Number of Bottom Agents to Win the Presidency The Associated Number of Different Bottom Nasty Configurations The Actual Probability of a Nasty Bottom Configuration All Bottom Minorities and Majorities Winning the Presidency The Odd Case r = The Even Case r = 4: The Challenging View Point The Even Case r = 4: The Running Power ViewPoint The Physicist's Corner The Worrying Power of Geometric Nesting or How to Make Certain a Very Rare Event The Sudden and Unexpected Taking Over of Large Institutions The Scary Lobbying 368

8 xv A Striking Idealized Illustration Hint to Restore the Democratic Functioning Softening the Inertia Principle The Physicist's Corner Three Competing Opinions: It Becomes Even More Counterintuitive Communist Collapse and French FN Victory Hierarchies Are Everywhere 375 References 376 Part IV The Risky Business of Alliances in Bottom-Up Democratic Voting with Three-Choice Competition 17 Bottom-Up Democratic Voting in a Three-Choice Competition Two Competing Parties in Short The General Frame Predicting the Results of Democratic Elections The Bottom-Up Voting Dynamics From Theoretical Principles to Reality From Reality to Implementation Three Competing Parties Two Competing Parties, a One-Dimensional Problem Three Competing Parties, a Two- Dimensional Problem The Three-Party Bottom-Up Voting Flow The Physicist's Corner The Bottom-Up Voting Flow Diagram The Frequent Case of Two Large Opposing Parties with a Small One in Between Some General (a, ft, y) Case Snapshots The "Golden Triangle" to Win the Presidency 411 References So Sorry, That's the End of the Tour! I Thank You 427 Index 429