Contents. Acknowledgments

Transcription

1 Contents Figures Tables Acknowledgments page xiii xv xvii 1 Introduction: The Anatomy of Dictatorship The Two Problems of Authoritarian Rule The Problem of Authoritarian Power-Sharing The Problem of Authoritarian Control The Authoritarian Setting Plan of the Book 17 2 The World of Authoritarian Politics What Counts as a Dictatorship? Making Sense of Institutional Heterogeneity under Dictatorship This Book s Approach to Political Organization of Dictatorships Leadership Change in Dictatorships The Survival of Authoritarian Ruling Coalitions Conclusion: The Rich World of Authoritarian Politics Appendix: Authoritarian Spells, part i the problem of authoritarian power-sharing 3 And Then There Was One! Authoritarian Power-Sharing and the Path to Personal Dictatorship Authoritarian Power-Sharing and the Emergence of Personal Autocracy A Formal Model Authoritarian Power-Sharing Balance of Power and Authoritarian Power-Sharing A Model with Endogenously Evolving Balance of Power 71 ix in this web service

2 x Contents 3.3 Implications for the Empirical Study of Authoritarian Tenures The Path to Personal Autocracy and Authoritarian Exit from Office Conclusion: The Management of Established Autocracy Appendix: Proofs 81 4 When and Why Institutions Contribute to Authoritarian Stability: Commitment, Monitoring, and Collective Action Problems in Authoritarian Power-Sharing Political Institutions and Authoritarian Power-Sharing The Allies Collective-Action Problem and Credible Power-Sharing A Formal Model Allies Rebellion as a Collective-Action Problem Authoritarian Power-Sharing without Institutions Authoritarian Power-Sharing with Institutions Power-Sharing Institutions and Authoritarian Stability Conclusion: The Distinctly Authoritarian Purpose of Nominally Democratic Institutions in Dictatorships Appendix: Proofs 117 part ii the problem of authoritarian control 5 Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and the Origins of Military Dictatorships The Moral Hazard Problem in Authoritarian Repression Bargaining in the Shadow of Military Intervention A Formal Model Empirical Analysis Conclusion: The Political Price of Authoritarian Repression Appendix I: Proofs Appendix II: Multiple Imputation Why Authoritarian Parties? The Regime Party as an Instrument of Co-optation and Control The Logic of Party-Based Authoritarian Co-optation Hierarchical Assignment of Service and Benefits Political Control over Appointments Selective Recruitment, Promotion, and Repression Regime Parties and Authoritarian Resilience Conclusion: Why Authoritarian Regime Parties? Conclusion: Incentives and Institutions in Authoritarian Politics Why Dictators Preside over Policy Disasters 197 in this web service

3 Contents xi 7.2 Why so Few Dictatorships Solve Succession Crises and Depersonalize Political Authority A Democratic Future for the Arab Spring? 199 Bibliography 203 Index 223 in this web service

4 Figures 1.1 Nonconstitutional exits from office of authoritarian leaders, page The number and the change in the number of dictatorships, Dictatorship around the world, Military involvement in authoritarian politics, Restrictions on political parties in dictatorships, Joint distribution of restrictions on political parties and military involvement in authoritarian politics, Legislative selection in dictatorships, Executive selection in dictatorships, Constitutional exits from office of authoritarian leaders, Authoritarian power-sharing game in extensive form The probability that the dictator reneges, α (dashed line), and the probability that the ruling coalition rebels if it observes a high signal, βh (solid line), in an equilibrium of the multiperiod authoritarian power-sharing game Probability density of time-to-rebellion based on the numerical example Probability density of time-to established autocracy based on the numerical example The empirical density of coups d état, The improving odds of dying in bed, A model of an authoritarian polity Payoffs to ally i, given the proportion of allies that rebel φ Effect of the dictator s power vis-à-vis the allies λ on threshold discount factors δ I (solid line) and δ I (dashed line) for λ<κ 0. The dotted line plots a hypothetical discount factor δ = xiii in this web service

5 xiv Figures 4.4 Nonconstitutional leader exits from office in dictatorships with and without legislatures, The effect of the expected magnitude of the mass threat ˆR on the equilibrium choice of the military s resources r The effect of the magnitude of the mass threat ˆR on the equilibrium probability of a successful military intervention Average annual frequencies of military interventions in leader entry or exit, The estimated effect of economic inequality on the probability of military intervention The share of legislative seats controlled by authoritarian regime parties in dictatorships with multiple parties, The association between legislative seat share and the age of authoritarian ruling coalitions, in this web service

6 Tables 1.1 An Outline of the Outcomes Explained in This Book page The Origin and End of Authoritarian Spells, Restrictions on Political Parties and Military Involvement in Authoritarian Politics, Legislative and Executive Selection in Dictatorships, Joint Distribution of Legislative and Executive Selection, Political Affiliation of Authoritarian Leaders, Institutions, Balance of Power, and the Success of Authoritarian Power-Sharing Legislatures and the Survival of Authoritarian Ruling Coalitions, Legislatures, Parties, and the Survival of Authoritarian Leaders, Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and Military Intervention in Politics Military Intervention in Dictatorships by Level of Economic Inequality The Impact of Economic Inequality on Military Intervention in Dictatorships A Comparison of Co-optation Via Transfers and Co-optation Via a Regime Party Restrictions on Political Parties and the Survival of Authoritarian Ruling Coalitions, Do the Survival Functions of Authoritarian Ruling Coalitions Differ Depending on Their Restrictions on Political Parties? Three Subgroups of Authoritarian Regime Parties by Legislative Seat Share The Effect of a Regime Party s Legislative Seat Share on the Survival of Authoritarian Ruling Coalitions 190 xv in this web service