Social physics or sociophysics? Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron Institute of Theoretical Physics University of Wrocław
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1 Social physics or sociophysics? Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron Institute of Theoretical Physics University of Wrocław
2 About 15 years ago (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron Piotrek Nyczka 2
3 Part 1 Long, long time ago (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 3
4 Long, long time ago Astronomy Sociology Sociology Physics What is social physics Pierre Simon de Laplace ( ) Adolphe Quetelet ( ) James C. Maxwell ( ) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 4
5 Social physics Introduced by Adolphe Quetelet in 1835 Essay on Social Physics: Man and the Development of his Faculties Project of a social physics and concept of the "average man Average man - characterized by the mean values of measured variables that follow a normal distribution Goal - to understand the statistical laws underlying such phenomena as crime rates, marriage rates or suicide rates. (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 5
6 Quetelet - histograms 152 cm 162 cm 167 cm 177 cm 182 cm 197 cm (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 6
7 Social physics Sociology French political philosopher Auguste Comte Comte defined social physics as the study of the laws of society (1842): Social Structure Social Dynamics He discovered that Quetelet had appropriated the term 'social physics' prior to him He invented the term 'sociologie' (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 7
8 Physics becomes statistical Maxwell - Kinetic theory of gases (1859) He indicated in 1873, the experiences of social physicists lent him confidence that this statistical approach could extract order from the microscopic chaos Statistics, entering physics through the agency of social science, soon came to dominate it James Clerk Maxwell ( ) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 8
9 Ludwig Boltzmann ( ) Molecules are like many individuals, having the most various states of motion, and the properties of gases only remain unaltered because the number of these molecules which on average have a given state of motion is constant. (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 9
10 Part 2 From Micromotives to Macrobehaviour (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 10
11 From micro to macro Two physicists Professor and PhD student Economist Wilhelm Lenz ( ) Thomas Schelling ( ) Ernst Ising ( ) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 11
12 Thomas Schelling An American economist (14 April 1921) Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (2005) for "having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis. Chessboard model of residential segregation (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 12
13 Aydinonat, N. Emrah, (2005) Economics Bulletin, Vol. 2, No. 2 pp. 1 7 (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 13
14 An Interview with One day I was flying home from Chicago, and I did not have anything to read. I wondered what to do ( ) So, I drew a line on a sheet of paper, put down ( ) X s and O s, and said now suppose I thought that these were black and whites, and both had ideas about neighbors. I started moving them around ( ) xo o x x o x o x o xoo ox (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 14
15 Interesting Idea I had to erase marks to move them, and was extremely clumsy, but by the time my plane landed in Boston I decided this was going to prove interesting. (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 15
16 And after coming back home Use a chessboard and coins of two types (pennies and nickels) Put coins randomly on a chessboard and start to move them (coins = agents) Agent is unhappy if the proportion of other agents of its color in its neighborhood is below a certain threshold Unhappy agent is moved randomly into a new place (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 16
17 (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron Schelling, Thomas C. (1971) Dynamic Models of Segregation. 17 Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1: What can we expect? Preference to have neighbors of the same color: 70% Initial state Final state
18 Lesson from this simple model Mild preferences total segregation Simple agent s rules can create complex global patterns or emergent behavior A milestone in the study of emergent global phenomena based on local social interactions Agent based modeling Schelling, Thomas C. (1971) Dynamic Models of Segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1: (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 18
19 What about Ising model? ( ) long time ago I discovered, somebody told me that, there were some physical models, I think something in crystal formation. Somebody was referring to ISING model, which was a well-known model of, I think, crystal formation (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron Ernst Ising
20 Ising model Local interactions order Temperature random changes Low temperature order should dominate High temperature disorder should dominate (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 20
21 Let s have a look (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 21
22 Part 3 Sociophysics has been born? (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 22
23 Sociophysics was born XXXVI Winter School Exotic Statistical Physics (2000) Serge Galam father and mother of sociophysics Galam, Gefen i Shapir (1982 ) new field sociophysics (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 23
24 Sociophysics a new approach (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 24
25 From social psychology to sociology Social Psychology Fundamental unit: A person (micro scale) Sociology Fundamental unit: A social group (macro scale) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 25
26 Can we treat people like particles? Social psychology situation more important than individual traits Social influence (Latane, 1981) Informational influence (Sherif 1935) Normative influence (Asch 1956) Conformity: obedience to authority, peer pressure, social validation (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 26
27 Conformity Conformity - the main mechanism of collective actions. Informational: when in doubt, imitate Normative: when in Rome, do as the Romans do. Aversion to standing out in the crowd (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 27
28 The power of social validation Milgram, Bickman & Berkowitz, 1969 Results of experiments: 1 4%, % Robert B. Cialdini: Social Validation the fundamental way of decision making (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 28
29 Asch s Experiment Normative Influence Asch (1956) visual perception (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 29
30 conformity conformity (%) The size of the group is important Conformity (social validation) Group size a threshold of 4-5 persons (Latane, 1981) % 30% 20 Milgram et al (1969) the size of the group (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 20% 10% Asch (1956) 0% The size of the group 30
31 Even more surprising (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 31
32 Unanimity is the key! The presence of a social supporter reduced the total number of yielding responses from 32% to 5.5%! Participants were far more independent when they were opposed by a seven person majority and had a partner than when they were opposed by a three-person majority and did not have a partner. (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 32
33 Opinion opinion - verbalized attitude (Trommsdorff 1998), measured in surveys discrete opinions: Ising spins Potts variables Continues opinions? not in surveys (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 33
34 Public opinion social mood In which direction goes the situation in Poland? bad good no opinion (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 34
35 Problems with social data How to collect them? People investigate the system People create the system Information about people s behavior can change their behavior (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 35
36 individual collective action The hunger protest took place in May-June 2004 in several prisons in Poland. It started in Wołów (reason: overcrowding in cells) Within a week several prisons joined the protest (2320 prisoners in 10 prisons) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 36
37 Models of opinion dynamics Social network Opinion states Update rules Ising spins and conformity Voter Model Majority model (Galam) Outflow dynamics (Sznajd) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 37
38 Voter Model (Clifford and Subdury, 1973) m S i 1 N 1 N i 1 S i (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 38
39 Majority Rule (Galam) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 39
40 m Outflow dynamics - unanimity time (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 40
41 Let s have a look (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 41
42 Recent Review Article C. Castellano, S. Fortunato, V. Loreto, Rev. Mod. Phys. 81, (2009) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 42
43 agreement preexposure disagreement Responses to social influence (Nail et. al. 2000) postexposure agreement disagreement conformity independence congruence anticonformity P.R.Nail, G.MacDonald, D.A.Levy Psychological Bulletin vol. 126, pp (2000) (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 43
44 Anticonformity asserting uniqueness (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 44
45 Conformity and anticonformity They are similar in the sense that both acknowledge the group norm The level of anticonformity depends on the society (asserting uniqueness) p 1 p 2 (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 45
46 Steady states? Consensus is no more a steady state Is consenus still possible? What is the opinion dynamics? p 0 2 (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 46
47 Time evolution of public opinion N=100 individuals high level of anticonformity (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 47
48 Time evolution of public opinion N=100 individuals, low level of anticonformity (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 48
49 Model on a complete graph P1 P1 P2 P2 (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 49
50 Lesson from this model Model with conformers and anticonformers For small values of anticonformity (<p*) spontaneous reorientations occur complete repolarizations The mean reorganization time for p=p* is minimal No need to introduce an external field nor a strong leader to obtain social repolarizations (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 50
51 Summary Simple models are used by computational sociologists Problem with social data (not a science?) The goal is to understand the system Social influence interactions between individuals Several types of social responce Unexpected behaviour complex systems Dynamics and updating scheme is important! (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 51
52 Thank you for attention (c) 2011 Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron 52
Simple models for complex systems toys or tools? (part I) Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron Institute of Theoretical Physics University of Wrocław
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