Feng Shaolei East China Normal University

Transcription

1 Russia s Development Scenarios and Sino-Russian Relations Feng Shaolei East China Normal University

2 First, The Situation inside Russia is the Main Factor for Potential Success 1. At the end of the 20th century, Russia carried out a profound social, political and anti-militarist revolution. The country brought down communism on its own and amazingly survived. 2. In ,facing the threat of renewed disintegration process due to post revolutionary chaos, a political counterrevolution process began in Russia, or, in other words there was a restoration of governability.

3 3. A system of soft authoritarianism is taking shape, but for the first time in Russian history this is happening without widespread restrictions on individual freedoms. 4. Russia s successful development is due to a reasonable economic, especially fiscal policy that has been conducted since the late 1990s. The growth of the Russia economy began not with commodity price hikes, but with normal recovery growth. 5. The demand for and prices of raw materials and energy, driven by the rise of newly industrialized countries, are behind the sharp increase in Russian GDP and budget revenues.

4 Second, Some External Trends 1. Real external threats to Russia that could escalate into military conflicts were virtually non existent already in late third of the 20th century. 2. The global system as a whole is returning to reliance on nation states, and international diplomacy is shaking off postmodernist trends, which are alien to Russia diplomacy.

5 3. Since the 2000s,habitual rivals have become weaker, and even a rising China is still more an opportunity than a challenge, much less a threat. 4. The country refined its key assets, and since 2000s it has been consistently revising the rules of game that had been imposed on it or it assumed by it in the years of weakness and chaos.

6 Third, Some Scenarios 1. Best Case option is to prepare for a modernization breakthrough by viable state and public institutions Political modernization is to begin a systemic struggle with corruption. 2. Development model Energy Investment Privatization 3. In the foreign policy field Convergence with Europe and reorientation towards to Asia

7 Fourth, Sino-Russian Relations Sino-Soviet and Sino-Russian relation is an important relation which is full of dramatic changes in the history of international relations.

8 Three key problems: Firstly, various starting points to observe Sino- Russian relations; Secondly, some major issues since the founding of the P.R.C.; Thirdly, summary and reflection for Sino-Russian relations in the past 60 years.

9 The first problem is regarding several perspectives on observing and exploring Sino-Russian relations.

10 The first one is a historical viewpoint. Both China and Russia are countries with long historic traditions. In such a long period, China and Russia have suffered numerous internal and external challenges, but why until today can they still be great countries exerting important and wide influence in current world? There must be some important reasons.

11 Historical similarities for both : 1.multi-ethnic 2.long history 3.wide territory. Historical differences for both: 1. ethnic structure. 2. peasants 3. intellectuals

12 The second is a viewpoint of civilization: The joint of civilizations of Europe and Asia : Russia One of the main origins of East Asia civilization : China

13 A third view is that both Russia and China have made great achievements in modernization and have been ahead among backward countries from the viewpoint of modernization process. Such construction in modernization under two different backgrounds

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18 The fourth viewpoint is that China and Russia have different internal and external structural characteristics from a perspective of international politics.

19 Some additions: 1.Russia used to be a world superpower but China is still an emerging economy under growth. 2.Two big neighboring countries, on one hand the fate of these two countries are closely linked. (energy cooperation ), on the other hand, they need pay special attention to handle bilateral relations in a very friendly and careful way, 3.This geographical scene has vividly pictured the reality of these two countries relations.

20 The Second Problem: The process and important events of Sino-Russian, Sino-Soviet relations in the past 60 years.

21 First, this is a bilateral relation that began during the period based on the same political system and ideology. It appears that the linkage of both institutional change and foreign polices is still worth noting.

22 Second, Sino- Russian, Sino-Soviet relations in the past 60 years are closely linked with willingness, aspiration and personality of political leaders.

23 The relationship from : 1.The establishment of Sino-Soviet alliance 2.The split of Sino-Soviet relation 3.The restoration of Sino-Soviet relations.

24 The latter 30 years of Sino-Russian relations since the 1990s. 1. The establishment of Sino-Russian constructive strategic partnership; 2.The setup of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

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28 The third and also the final part is to summarize and reflect Sino-Russian relations during the past 60 years.

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30 Доля Китая в общем российском экспорте будет расти From

31 Доля Китая в Российском импорте существенно увеличится From

32 First, if we have a look at countries which exchanged with New China during the past 60 years, probably no one country could have such a close relationship with China s current entire modernization process, nor one country could have such comprehensive exchanges with China in party, government, army, people, economy and culture and even up to now the cooperative relations are still the most comprehensive. Only Russia could manage this.

33 Second point, there are various motivations for the development of Sino-Russian relations. 1.two adjacent powerful countries 2.great economic complementarities, 3.two major non-western countries 4.Neither the Shanghai Cooperation Organization nor the BRIC countries will be a replacement for the existing order, but they will probably be an important platform to commonly build new mechanisms and institutions with other countries and nations.

34 Thanks!