BREXIT BRIEF. Brexit Brief Issue 03. Introduction. Section One: Brexit State of Play. Donald Tusk s draft decision, 2 February 2016

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BRIEF Brexit Brief Issue 03 Introduction Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA s UK Project Group, covers developments in the on-going debate in the United Kingdom and between the UK and the other EU

1 BRIEF Brexit Brief Issue 03 Introduction Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA s UK Project Group, covers developments in the on-going debate in the United Kingdom and between the UK and the other EU Member States on the UK s negotiations over its membership of the Union. The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK re-negotiation and on relevant statements and policy positions of key individual players, EU institutions, national governments, political parties, business interests and civil society actors. Particular attention is given to identification of references website coordinates, book titles, official publications, media coverage etc. The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA s UK Project Group involving commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports which will be highlighted on the Institute website. ( Section One: Brexit State of Play Throughout January 2016, the UK reform demands have been the subject of intensive negotiation as Prime Minister Cameron and his ministers engage in direct discussion with their opposite numbers across the Union and with the Brussels Institutions. The key negotiators of the European Council and Commission have been in detailed dialogue with the British team with a view to producing an agreed package for submission to the scheduled European Council meeting on February. Donald Tusk s draft decision, 2 February 2016 A draft package was presented by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, on Tuesday, 2 February 2016, which he described as a proposal for a new settlement of the United Kingdom within the EU. The package addresses the four baskets detailed in November 2015 letter and proposes solutions to the British concerns under each heading. It does so in a complex, often highly legalistic text which will be the subject of high level diplomatic discussions over the coming fortnight. Many details, and some more substantial issues, remain to be settled in advance of the European Council meeting, or at the meeting itself. This is particularly the case with respect to the question of possible treaty change to meet the UKs demands for certainty that the reforms are legally-binding and irreversible The Tusk package proposes that the substance of these matters be incorporated into the treaties on their next revision, possibly similar to previous arrangements for Denmark and Ireland. For more on Donald Tusk s response, please see the IIEA blog To be or not to be together -The Draft EU-UK deal UK Ministers and MPs and the Referendum Campaign Reporting, on 5 January 2016, to the House of Commons on the December European Council meeting, the Prime Minister made the important statement that following his renegotiation there will be a clear Government position, but that it would be open to individual Ministers to adopt a personal position on the issue, while remaining part of the Government. Ultimately, he said, it will be for the British people to decide the country s future. Meanwhile, research conducted by Ipsos Mori, on behalf BREXIT BRIEF 003 FEB 2016

2 of the think-tank The UK in a Changing Europe, has found that a third of British MPs remain undecided regarding the UK s EU membership, intending to wait until after the conclusion of David Cameron s renegotiations before deciding which way to vote. The survey found that 20% of Conservative MPs intended to vote Leave, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. Growing importance of security in the Brexit debate Apart from the four formal negotiating issues, David Cameron has argued that there is an important security aspect to the UK s relationship with the EU, something which was discussed in detail in the recent postscript to the IIEA book Britain and Europe: The Endgame. In his speech at Chatham House in November 2015, he said that UK membership of the EU is not only about economic security, but national security too: Our membership of the EU does matter for our national security and for the security of our allies, which is one reason why our friends in the world strongly urge us to remain in the EU. The security angle has since become a feature of Mr. Cameron s public statements, and appears to have resonated in other European capitals. In a recent op-ed, the former Polish Foreign Minister, Jacek Rostowski has argued along similar lines, making the point that security and defence are distinct issues: Many claim that, because NATO ensures the UK s defense, a British exit from the EU would not undermine the country s security. But security and defense are not the same thing. True security entails the expectation that a country will not have to call upon the defense alliances to which it belongs and that is what membership in the EU, as it stands today, provides. Section Two: The Evolving Debate Cabinet Divisions Although David Cameron s decision to allow ministers to campaign on either side of the referendum debate does not become effective until his renegotiation is complete, some cabinet members have been quick to establish their positions. The Leader of the House of Commons, Chris Grayling, has described the European Union as disastrous for Britain and has made it clear that he is preparing to campaign for the UK to leave. On the other side, the Education Secretary and Minister for Women, Nicky Morgan, has warned that a UK exit would cut the country off from the rest of the world and limit opportunities for young people. Outside the ranks of the cabinet, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, has made it clear that he does not want to lead the Brexit campaign. As he succinctly put it: I am not an outer. Two New Campaign Groups Two new UK referendum campaign groups have emerged in recent weeks. Conservatives for Reform in Europe is led by former minister Nick Herbert and former Attorney General Dominic Grieve and intends to give a voice to the thousands of Tory members and supporters who want Mr Cameron to succeed. ( Grassroots Out (GO) is a cross-party group set up by UKIP s Nigel Farage, the Labour MP Kate Hoey and the former Tory cabinet minister Liam Fox to bring together existing leave campaigns and to get them working as one in local areas. ( The emergence of a new leave group underlines the lack of coordination on that side of the debate as the Electoral Commission prepares to designate a lead campaigner for each side of the campaign. The leaders of Leave. EU and Vote Leave are reported to be in dispute on the designation issue and the possibility of a merger of the two groups is not seen to be on the agenda. Labour Party Reshuffle The Labour Party s Shadow Cabinet reshuffle saw the departure of the Shadow Europe Minister, Pat McFadden, and his replacement by Pat Glass, MP for North West Durham. She is co-chair of the pro-europe campaign group Labour IN which she describes as a strong clear voice in parliament and the country. UK Parliament The Northern Ireland Affairs Committee of the House of Commons has launched an inquiry, to which the IIEA has been invited to contribute, into the potential impact on Northern Ireland of a decision to leave the EU, including implications for cross-border relations. The Chair of the Committee, Laurence Robertson MP, said: Our aim is not to make a recommendation on whether the people of Northern Ireland should vote to leave the EU or remain a member. Rather, we will look to inform public debate on the specific issues affecting Northern Ireland that should

3 be considered." Timing of the Referendum Late June continues to be the preferred timeframe of the referendum for David Cameron, but the First Ministers of Scotland (Nicola Sturgeon), Wales (Carwyn Jones) and Northern Ireland (Arlene Foster) have questioned this timing, due to the potential confusion with the scheduled Assembly election campaigns in May. Opinion Polls Public opinion on the referendum indicates a close outcome, with two recent polls giving quite different results. Arguments abound on polling methods and samples following the failure to predict the result of the 2015 General Election. Remain has an 18 point lead over Leave on the EU referendum question according to a new ComRes poll for the Daily Mail. More than half (54%) of Britons say they would vote Remain if a referendum were held tomorrow, while around a third (36%) say they would vote Leave. One in ten (10%) say they don t know how they would vote. ( On the other hand, an ORB poll indicates that opposition to the European Union is growing. While 21 percent of voters are still undecided, 43 percent want to leave the EU and 36 percent want to stay, it showed. When the undecided are stripped out, 54 percent of voters want a British exit, or 'Brexit', up from 51 percent a year ago, and 46 percent want to stay, down from 49 percent. ( Surveys by YouGov show that one of the biggest challenges facing the pro-eu camp is to enthuse the under-30s who are mostly pro-membership but least likely to vote, while the leave camp needs to maximise turnout among Brexit-inclined working class voters. Both sides need to target Tory voters who are currently divided 55-45% for leaving the EU. This is a far more even division than among supporters of any other party (Labour for remaining; LibDem for remaining; SNP for remaining; UKIP for leaving). ( co.uk) Taoiseach Enda Kenny in London Taoiseach Enda Kenny met Prime Minister David Cameron on 25 January 2016 to discuss the UK reform package. He told reporters that it is critical from Ireland s viewpoint that Britain remains in the European Union, arguing that if Britain left the EU, then the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, which in some respects has ceased to exist, could become an issue again. Enda Kenny addressed a British-Irish Chamber of Commerce Seminar in London, saying that it is very much a matter for the British people to make that choice yet, in Ireland, we are not disinterested observers. Nor should we be. meanwhile, in Northern Ireland The Taoiseach s remarks provoked an angry response from leading figures in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Belfast. The MP Ian Paisley Jnr. asked What part of keep out does he not understand? The newly appointed First Minister, Arlene Foster, took a more benign view of Enda Kenny s expression of his opinion but said that if there were a vote now the DUP would vote to leave the EU. The new Leader of the SDLP, Colum Eastwood, has called on the Norther Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, to resign if she openly backs the leave campaign, arguing that her role should require her to represent the best interests of people in the North. Mr. Eastwood went on to say that a Brexit would not be in the interest of either the Northern Irish economy or society. Section 3: Relevant Research and events IIEA publications and events Recent Publications Britain and Europe: The Endgame - A Postscript. A new study updating the analysis in the Institute s March 2015 book. Edited by Brendan Keenan and Andrew Gilmore, the study includes chapters by Brendan Halligan, Blair Horan, Paul Gillespie, John Bradley, Tom Arnold and Andrew Gilmore. The postscript can be downloaded here. Brexit: Legally Effective Alternatives. An authoritative legal study by Paul Gallagher SC, which addresses the feasibility of the UK s reform demands. The paper can be downloaded here. Upcoming IIEA publication A Guide to the UK Campaign Groups, by Tony Brown. This guide to the UK referendum campaign groups, on both sides of the Brexit debate, will be available to

4 download from the IIEA website soon. Upcoming event Paul Drechsler, President of the Confederation of British Industry, The British Business Vision for a Reformed EU Mr. Drechsler will analyse the benefits and drawbacks of EU membership for business, examine the alternatives and set out a business vision for a reformed EU, which works better for firms in the UK, Ireland and across the continent. More information on the event can be found here. Recent Events and activities Pat McFadden MP, until recently UK Labour Party Shadow European Minister, addressed the Institute on The UK at the crossroads Britain s Brexit debate on 27 January More information on this event can be found here. IIEA UK group members have been involved in a number of recent engagements on the topic of Brexit: Chair of the IIEA s UK project group, Dáithí Ó Ceallaigh, gave evidence at a session of the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament on 21 January 2016, on the topic of alternatives to EU membership; Paul Gillespie, co-editor of the IIEA book Britain and Europe: The Endgame, spoke at a hearing on Brexit at the London School of Economics (LSE) on 25 January 2016; and IIEA Director General, Tom Arnold, spoke at a Sinn Fein Conference on Brexit: Rights and Wrongs in Belfast on 29 January Third party publications and events Open Europe Wargames An interesting initiative by the Open Europe think tank brought together a group of former political leaders from across the EU to simulate the UK-EU negotiations. Former Taoiseach John Bruton took part. A report on the deliberations can be read here. Seven Alternatives to EU membership A major study for the Centre for European Reform by Jean-Claude Piris, former Legal Counsel of the EU Council, addresses the practicalities of leaving the European Union. Arguing that departure will not be easy, Piris indicates that an overarching theme is that, if the UK wants access to the single market when it has left the EU, it will have to accept three things: continued budget contribution, continued free movement of labour, and continued supremacy of EU law over British law in the single market. The publication can be downloaded here. Upcoming Event The Centre for Cross Border Studies will host a conference on February, Bordering Between Unions: What does the UK Referendum on Europe mean for us?, at which the chair of the IIEA UK Project Group, Dáithí O Ceallaigh, will deliver a keynote address. More information on the event can be found here. Section Four: Background Material and Further Reading Background Material Taoiseach Enda Kenny Address to British Irish Chamber of Commerce Seminar, London, 25 January ( Jean-Claude Piris. If the UK votes to leave: The seven alternatives to EU membership. Centre for European Reform. ( Jean-Claude Piris Brexit is the Easy Bit Article in Financial Times, 12 January ( Prime Minister Cameron Speech at World Economic Forum, Davos, 21 January ( Jacek Rostowski Brexit Threat to European Security. ( Paul Gillespie EU worried about setting precedent. Article in Irish Times, 30 January ( com) Centre for European Reform The Brexit Equation: EU minus UK=? Bulletin 106, February/March 2016 ( Financial Times UK benefit reform demands appeal to rest of EU. Report, 17 January ( The Economist Let the Campaigners Begin. Editorial, 16 January ( Chris Grayling MP More Europe is the last thing

5 Britain needs. Article in The Telegraph, 13 January 2016 ( Financial Times Trading False Promises for a post- Brexit Britain Editorial, 11 January ( John Redwood MP We Tories are all Eurosceptics now. Article in Financial Times, 8 January (www. ft.com) Denis Staunton London Letter: Referendum campaigns a study in contrasts. Irish Times 8 January (www. irishtimes.com) Phil Hogan Speech by the Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development at the Oxford Farming Conference, 7 January ( European Commission. Communication Better Regulation for Better Results An EU agenda, September ( Minister Charlie Flanagan. Cool heads will be needed to keep UK in EU Article in Irish Times, 30 December ( Ulrich Speck We ll miss you if Britain leaves the EU and you ll be diminished, too Article in The Guardian, 3 January ( Ruadhan Mac Cormaic Brexit: a referendum on Ireland s future. Feature article in Irish Times, 2 January ( Guy Verhofstadt Putin will be rubbing his hands at the prospect of Brexit. Article in The Guardian, 5 January ( Hansard Prime Minister Cameron Statement to House of Commons on European Council meeting, 5 January ( Irish Political Review Brexit? Time for the EU to grow up Vol.31, No.1, January ( Peter Muller and Christoph Scheuermann The EU Strategy to Keep Britain from Leaving. Article in Spiegel Online, 5 January ( House of Commons Library EU reform negotiations: what s going on? Briefing Paper, Number 7311, 30 December ( House of Lords European Union Committee. The referendum on UK membership of the EU; assessing the reform process. Report, 22 September (www. parliament.uk) Philip Hammond and Paolo Gentiloni Britain and Italy Stand Together on EU Reform Article in The Telegraph, 14 December ( James Forsyth Project Fear Article in The Spectator, 1 January ( John FitzGerald Crucial for North that UK stays in Europe Article in Irish Times,8 January (www. irishtimes.com) Prime Minister Cameron Speech at Chatham House, 10 November ( Further Reading Michael Emerson (ed.) (2015) Britain s Future In Europe: Reform, renegotiation, repatriation or secession? (Analysis of the UK Review of EU Competences) Brussels, Centre for European Policy Studies CEPS) and London, Rowman and Littlefield. Roger Bootle (2015) The Trouble with Europe. Second Edition. (Eurosceptic economist argues for British exit.) London, Nicholas Brealey Publishing. Luuk Van Middelaar (2013) The Passage to Europe: How a Continent Became a Union. (Major study of the reality of European integration) Yale University Press. Journal of Common Market Studies (JCMS) Special Issue Interpreting British European Policy. (Articles on various aspects of Euroscepticism in the UK) ( House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee. UK Government s renegotiation of EU membership: Parliamentary Sovereignty and Scrutiny. Fourteenth Report of Session As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.

6 The Institute of International and European Affairs, 8 North Great Georges Street, Dublin 1, Ireland T: F: E: reception@iiea.com W: www. iiea.com

UK Election Results and Economic Prospects. By Tony Brown 21 July 2017

UK Election Results and Economic Prospects By Tony Brown 21 July 2017 This briefing note summarises recent developments in the UK and presents a snapshot of the British political and economic state of