BREXIT BRIEF. Brexit Brief Issue 48: 19 September Introduction

Transcription

1 BRIEF Brexit Brief Issue 48: 19 September 2018 Introduction Brexit Brief provides up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK-EU negotiations, and brings together relevant statements and policy positions from key players in Ireland, the UK and EU. The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA s UK Project Group including commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports which are highlighted on the Institute s website. ( Section One: State of Play Negotiations Continue As the summer break came to an end and parliamentary business recommenced, the Brexit negotiations resumed in Brussels with evidence of greater intensity. The Brexit debate in Ireland and the UK also returned to the front pages. A selection of newspaper headlines demonstrate the complexity and seriousness of a situation very much subject to the discipline, or threat, of the ticking clock : Brexit negotiators risk sleepwalking into crisis (Guardian); Theresa May sees hope of Brexit solution (Financial Times); EU banks on last minute Brexit deal this autumn (BBC); Barnier says Brexit deal could be struck in next two months (Guardian); UK constitutional crisis looms if Brexit talks founder (Irish Times). Three EU summits an informal gathering in Salzburg from 19 to 20 September, a normal European Council in October and a special European Council in November provide the opportunities for decisions on the Withdrawal Agreement, the Transition Period and the Political Declaration on future relations. There is much speculation on the likelihood of policy shifts on either side with some indications of an acceptance in Brussels that a no-deal scenario would be costly for both parties. There is a shared determination to reach a deal. And it is noted that Michel Barnier has spoken of building an unprecedented partnership with the United Kingdom on trade, cooperation in specific areas, internal security, foreign policy, external security and defence. Critical work and difficult negotiation remain in respect of the Northern Ireland Ireland border question. The RTÉ commentator Tony Connelly has summarised the starkly discordant negotiating positions on the issue, and BREXIT BRIEF 048 SEPT 2018

2 the political ramifications for Prime Minister Theresa May and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar: The final weeks will therefore be a bruising contest over Ireland. The UK will uphold its depiction of the backstop as a constitutional threat and will press the EU to push its rulebook on customs to the limit and perhaps beyond while Dublin and the Commission will push for what they see as a pragmatic approach which builds on differences between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK that already exist. The UK is effectively saying it cannot accept a Northern Ireland-only backstop with only the promise of it never coming into effect; Ireland is saying it cannot rely on the future relationship as a guarantee of avoiding a hard border. For both Theresa May and Leo Varadkar, the domestic repercussions of how this plays out could not be more stark. A major question mark exists in respect of the Prime Minister s capacity to achieve parliamentary approval for any deal which may be made in Brussels. A Federal Trust paper questions the likelihood of the UK Parliament approving a Brexit deal: It is an as yet unresolved question of British politics whether our parliamentary system will be able to develop any coherent response to this challenge. If it does not, the UK will inevitably leave the European Union on 29th March 2019 in the most brutal and chaotic circumstances possible. Labour s shadow Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry, has suggested that the party is likely to vote against any Brexit deal secured by Theresa May since she cannot see the Government coming back with an agreement that meets Labour s six tests, the criteria which must be met if the party is to vote for the Brexit deal when it comes before Parliament. Ms Thornberry instead suggested that: We re either going to have a general election in the autumn or we re going to have it in the spring. Secretary Raab in Commons The Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, gave a statement to the House of Commons updating MPs on progress made to negotiating a Brexit deal. He said that he and Michel Barnier have injected some additional pace and intensity into the negotiations in the final phases. He commented on the progress of the Withdrawal Agreement, with up to 80 percent agreed, he indicated that its scope and contours of the agreement are becoming clear. On the Irish question he spoke of continuing work on completing a backstop to deal with the position of Northern Ireland and Ireland. He reiterated the British position of concern regarding the EU backstop proposal as a threat to the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK, viewed as it is by the British government as a customs border down the Irish Sea. He called for further cooperation, affirming that: [ ] of course, this [alternative backstop proposal] can be done without compromising the EU s core principles and further reiterated the UK position of finding a solution to the Northern Ireland border through a future partnership so that no backstop would ever need to come into effect. He concluded with a reference to British preparedness for all outcomes: I will continue to meet regularly with Michel Barnier, confident that a deal is within our grasp if the ambition and pragmatism that we have shown are matched by our EU friends. But this House and the British people can rest assured that the UK will be ready for Brexit, deal or no deal Section Two: The Evolving Debate Irish Developments The The European Research Group has published proposals which they believe could allow the UK to leave the EU single market and customs union without the need for a hard border. The proposal is based on an agreement on equivalence of UK and EU regulations and conformity assessments for all agricultural goods on

3 the island of Ireland. Northern Ireland and the Republic would maintain a Common Biosecurity Zone, ensuring equivalence of EU and UK regulations and conformity assessment for all agricultural goods on the island of Ireland after Brexit, with existing simplified customs procedures continuing. The proposals have been dismissed as impractical. Reports from Brussels indicate that European Union officials have been working on re-drafting the Irish protocol to the Withdrawal Treaty as part of what Michel Barnier has described as de-dramatising of the issue in order to get a good deal. The work was seeking to find wording that could ease British concerns that the proposed backstop would undermine the constitutional position of Northern Ireland. The Tánaiste, Simon Coveney, has re-emphasised the Irish priority of ensuring no physical infrastructure or checks or controls on the island of Ireland: We now need to agree the legal text to make this a reality. What is important here is the outcome no physical infrastructure and no related checks or controls. This needs to be the overwhelming focus of the UK and EU teams over the coming weeks. The Labour Party Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, Keir Starmer has argued for a fresh approach to the Irish element of the Brexit negotiations which recognises that it is only through a combination of a new customs union, a strong single market deal and shared institutions that we find a solution that works for Ireland, the UK and across the EU. He recalled that one of his biggest frustrations about the 2016 campaign was the lack of focus on how Brexit would affect communities on both sides of the Irish border, and then pointed to those Brexiteers who remain under the illusion that the Irish Border is an imagined or exaggerated problem.this is not only irresponsible but also misunderstands the significance of the open border as the manifestation of peace, It s about identity not technology, The leader of Fianna Fáil, Micheal Martin, has criticised the relationship between Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Prime Minister May, suggesting that poor relations will be damaging to the future political relations between Ireland and the United Kingdom in the context of Brexit. He argued that the Taoiseach and Prime Minister May appear to have no substantive working relationship and go long periods without talking to each other. He also questioned the Irish Government s approach to relations with the unionist parties. Jean-Claude Juncker in Strasbourg In his State of the Union Address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 12 September 2018, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker outlined the three principles which the EU negotiating team have repeatedly highlighted: respecting the British decision to leave, while asking the British government to accept that they cannot be offered a privileged position outside the EU; solidarity with Ireland; and a commitment to a strong future relationship in trade and security. In doing so, he welcomed the proposed free trade area as a solid starting point from which to build a future trade relationship. Allow me to recall three principles which should guide our work on Brexit in the months to come. First of all, we respect the British decision to leave our Union, even though we continue to regret it deeply. But we also ask the British Government to understand that someone who leaves the Union cannot be in the same privileged position as a Member State. If you leave the Union, you are of course no longer part of our Single Market, and certainly not only in the parts of it you choose. Secondly, the European Commission, this Parliament and all other 26 Member States will always show loyalty and solidarity with Ireland when it comes to the Irish border. This is why we want to find a creative solution that prevents a hard border in Northern Ireland. But we will equally be very outspoken should the British Government walk away from its responsibilities under the Good Friday Agreement. It is not the European Union, it

4 is Brexit that risks making the border more visible in Northern Ireland. Thirdly, after 29 March 2019, the United Kingdom will never be an ordinary third country for us. The United Kingdom will always be a very close neighbour and partner, in political, economic and security terms. This is why I welcome Prime Minister May s proposal to develop an ambitious new partnership for the future, after Brexit. We agree with the statement made in Chequers that the starting point for such a partnership should be a free trade area between the United Kingdom and the European Union. On the basis of these three principles, the Commission s negotiators stand ready to work day and night to reach a deal. We owe it to our citizens and our businesses to ensure the United Kingdom s withdrawal is orderly and that there is stability afterwards. It will not be the Commission that will stand in the way of this, I can assure you of that. Tory Opposition to Chequers Plan The Prime Minister s Chequers plan has faced continued opposition from both wings of the Conservative party. Theresa May has vowed to take on her critics, insisting that she is providing serious leadership and a serious plan which can secure a smooth Brexit next year. In a BBC interview she has insisted that the Chequers deal is the only viable option and that there will be an EU- UK agreement in November which will be accepted by parliament. Jacob Rees-Mogg had written an open letter to local Conservative associations and to all Tory MPs in late August, urging them to chuck Chequers and to support a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU to make the most of the global opportunities that lie ahead. Rees-Mogg s European Research Group had then indicated that it would unveil a comprehensive counterproposal to Chequers, advocating the Canada option. This would be a defining moment in the campaign against the Prime Minister. However, the predicted launch of the ERG document did not take place as it became clear that the text was not agreed and that a major dispute had arisen in the group over whether dumping Chequers also meant getting rid of the Prime Minister. A meeting of some ERG members had apparently discussed a direct move to unseat Theresa May and this called the cohesion and direction of the group into question. The Guardian commented that the difference of opinion demonstrates the depth of the splits within the Brexit wing of the Tory party. The former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, has written that the Prime Minister s Brexit plan has wrapped a suicide vest around the British constitution and handed the detonator to Michel Barnier. On the Northern Ireland issue Johnson argued that We have opened ourselves to perpetual political blackmail. We have given Barnier a jemmy with which Brussels can choose at any time to crack apart the union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. We have managed to reduce the great British Brexit to two appalling options: either we must divide the Union, or the whole country must accept EU law forever. His intervention has been dismissed by a Downing Street spokesperson as containing no new ideas, referring to Theresa May as a serious Prime Minister (who) has put forward serious proposals. Pro-European Tories are equally unhappy. Former Education Secretary Justine Greening has described the Chequers plan as more unpopular than Margaret Thatcher s poll tax and, therefore untenable to take forward while Backbencher Nick Boles has called on the Prime Minister to abandon Chequers and remain in the European Economic Area (EEA). No-deal Preparations The second list of UK Government no-deal Brexit notices was published on 13 September The Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, commented that These technical notices are part and parcel of our sensible, pragmatic approach to preparing for all outcomes.

5 The list covers issues such as travelling to the EU with a UK passport; driving in the EU: Travelling to Ireland; mobile roaming in Northern Ireland; maritime security; conservation and environment funding after 2020; satellite and space programmes; divorce law; insolvency; European Social Fund programme; Northern Ireland in general; and TV stations in London. On Irish citizens in Britain it is stated that they are not required to take any action to protect their status or rights associated with the common travel area. Irish citizens can expressly continue to enjoy the reciprocal rights including the right to work, study, vote, access social benefits and healthcare. The Irish Revenue Commissioners are preparing for full customs checks in case no deal is reached on Brexit. Revenue is reported to be planning for a situation of no regulatory alignment from March A worstcase scenario has been developed involving economic goods being profiled and subjected to checks and most animal and plant origin products being subject to border controls. It is recognised that customs barriers rather than the cost of tariffs might cause the biggest disruption to agri-food businesses as they must submit customs declarations on imports and exports. There were plans to have many import checks and controls carried out by Revenue on goods coming into the country moved away from ports and airports to allow them to move as freely as possible. Reports from stockbrokers Davy and rating agency Moody s point to the negative economic outcomes of a no-deal Brexit. Davy believes that a disorderly Brexit under WTO rules is a low-probability/high impact event that could push both Ireland and the UK into recession. Moody s argue that, in a no-deal situation, Ireland could bear a loss in output commensurate with that of the UK. Public Opinion A YouGov survey of more than 2,700 members of Unite, Unison and GMB commissioned by the People s Vote campaign reveals that members of the three unions now support a new referendum on Brexit by a margin of more than two to one. The poll also indicates that a clear majority of members now support staying in the EU, believing the Brexit will be bad for jobs and living standards. Union members think standards of living will deteriorate as a result of Brexit by a margin of about four to one. They believe that Brexit will worsen job opportunities and, contrary to many claims, want to prioritise trade over controlling immigration. Research by NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe has indicated that British voters would support remaining in the European Union by a margin of 59-41, the highest recorded support for EU membership in any survey since the 2016 referendum. The survey was carried out in June, before the publication of the Chequers Statement and the subsequent White Paper. A new Eurosceptic party has been launched in Dublin. The Irexit Freedom Party intends to campaign for Ireland to leave the European Union. Queen s University Research A major research study by the School of Law at Queen s University Belfast, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, has concluded that Brexit will threaten the peace process, risks disrupting North-South cooperation and could reduce international oversight of human rights. Commenting that many of these matters had been neglected in discussion of Brexit thus far, the report argues that We urgently need a bespoke solution for this region that will minimise the negative impact of Brexit and provide a positive way forward. The report consists of six interlinked studies, which examined the potential impact of Brexit on social and economic rights; North- South relations; the Irish border; human rights; and equality protections; racism and xenophobia; and the peace process. Its recommendations deal with political relations; the Common Travel Area; paramilitarism; the EU citizenship rights of people in Northern Ireland who claim Irish citizenship; and the issue of Northern Ireland remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union.

6 Second Referendum The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, writes in a newspaper article that after a lot of careful consideration I ve decided that the people must get a final say. This means a public vote on any deal or a vote on a no-deal, alongside the option of staying in the EU. It s time to take this crucial issue out of the hands of the politicians and return it to the people so that they can take back control.the government s abject failure and the huge risk we face of a bad deal or a no deal Brexit means that giving the people a fresh say is now the right and only - approach left for our country. The Observer editorial of Sunday 16 September concludes that for two years we have been failed by Britain s political class on the most important question this country has faced in decades. Neither party has been prepared to level with us about what leaving the EU might cost. The Observer appeals to all MPs: it is not too late to put the national interest first. We are being led to the brink of disaster as we prepare to leave the EU. We must be given the chance to deliver our verdict on the terms of departure, we must have a referendum on the deal. Section Three: Background Material and Further Reading Background Material European Commission State of the Union Address 2018, Strasbourg, 12 September ( speech_en.pdf) Patrick Smyth Junker says EU will always show loyalty to Ireland on Brexit. IT, 12 September (www. RTE Britain publishes more no-deal Brexit advice papers. RTE, 13 September ( world/2018/0913/ brexit_technical_notices) eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/soteu2018- irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/juncker-says-eu-willalways-show-loyalty-to-ireland-on-brexit ) The Guardian Space debris, roaming charges and other no-deal Brexit perils. Guardian, 13 September 2018, ( Secretary Dominic Raab Statement to Parliament, 4 September ( commons/ /debates) Michel Barnier Statement following meeting with Dominic Raab, UK Secretary for Exiting the EU, Brussels, 31 August ( Sky News Labour would likely vote down any Brexit deal, says shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry. Sky, 15 September ( labour-would-likely-vote-down-any-brexit-deal-emilythornberry ) Sadiq Khan The people must have another vote-to take back control of Brexit. Guardian, 15 September ( people-vote-bexit-safiq-khan) The Guardian Barnier says Brexit deal could be struck in next two months. Guardian, 11 September ( Financial Times EU ready to give Barnier mandate to close Brexit deal. FT, 10 September ( content/477ac3e4-b433-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe) The Guardian EU27 to offer May a carrot and stick approach to Brexit. Guardian, 4 September (www. theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/04/eu27-to-offertheresa-may-a-carrot-and-stick-approach-to-brexitchequers-plan-irish-border)

7 Financial Times Theresa May sees hope of Brexit solution. FT, 13 September ( content/2d8cc41e-b695-11e8-b3ef-799c8613f4a1) The Guardian Jacob Rees-Mogg and his Brexiters increasingly look like a busted flush. Guardian, 12 September ( sep/12/tory-brexiters-hope-cabinet-allies-will-push-mayto-axe-chequers-plan) Boris Johnson The Chequers plan means we go into battle with the white flag flying. Telegraph, 3 September ( victory-brussels-inevitable-adopting-chequers-have-gonebattle) BBC Boris Johnson compares Chequers deal to suicide vest. BBC, 9 September ( Brexit Central Jacob Rees-Mogg pens explosive chuck Chequers letter to turn Tory grassroots against May s plan. Brexit Central, 23 August ( jacob-rees-mogg-pens-explosive-chuck-chequers-letterturn-tory-grassroots-mays-plan) Financial Times Theresa May vows to take on Eurosceptic Conservatives. FT, 4 September ( content/1f3a606c-af6d-11e8-8d14-6f049d06439c) The Guardian Brexit: Mervyn King blasts incompetence of preparations. Guardian, 5 September (www. The Telegraph Britain is an island of contentment in an EU driven by Brussels to populist revolt. Telegraph, 10 September ( Federal Trust Brendan Donnelly. Brexit: The Conservative Centre Cannot Hold. Federal Trust, 27 August The Guardian Brexit negotiators risk sleepwalking into crisis Ivan Rogers. Guardian, 7 September Financial Times Number 10 dismisses Boris Johnson s Brexit attack. FT, 4 September ( content/d5ad002e-af46-11e8-99ca-68cf ) Financial Times Conservative Eurosceptics plot to remove Theresa May. FT, 12 September ( 799c8613f4a1) BBC Brexit: Theresa May will reconsider 39bn bill if there s no deal. BBC, 12 September ( com/news/uk-politics ) theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/05/brexit-mervynking-blasts-incompetence-of-peparations) news/2018/09/09/britin-island-contentment-eu-drivenbrussela-populist-revolt) ( ( negotiators-risk-sleepwalking-into-crisis-warns-ivan- rogers) BBC EU banks on last minute Brexit deal this autumn. The Guardian Emmanuel Macron stresses opposition to blind Brexit. Guardian, 3 September (www. BBC, 6 September ( theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/03/emmanuelmacron-stresses-opposition-to-blind-brexit) Irish Times Brexit: German business leaders raise alarm over UK s hard stance. IT, 3 September ( RTE Britain would now vote to stay in the EU new poll shows. RTE, 5 September ( news/business/2018/0905/ brexit-opinion-poll)

8 The Guardian Bombshell poll reveals heavy union backing for second Brexit vote. Guardian, 8 September ( unions-poll-massive-backing-second-eu-brexitreferendum) The Guardian Why YouGov poll shows support for a people s Brexit vote is solid. Guardian, 9 September ( Patrick Smyth MEPs to demand continued EU funding for NI peace programmes after Brexit. IT, 11 September ( Fiona Mitchell Brexit: Buckle up-it is going to be bumpy. RTE, 7 September ( Denis Staunton Barnier s new Brexit approach unlikely to ease May s woes. IT, 11 September ( Tanaiste Simon Coveney Speech to Finnish Institute for International Affairs, Helsinki, 5 September (www. dfa.ie/news-and-media-speeches/speeches-archive/2018/ september/brexit-and-beyond-remarks-by-tanaiste) Irish Times Brexit would boost support for united Ireland, poll finds. IT, 3 September (www. irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-wouldboost-support-for-united-ireland-poll-finds ) Irish Times Solution to Brexit s biggest problem is in Ireland. IT, 10 September ( opinion/solution-to-brexit-s-biggest-problem-is-inireland ) The Guardian Ireland seeking Brexit side deal with EU to avoid border checks. Guardian, 7 September ( Irish Times Revenue preparing for full customs checks post-brexit. IT, 6 September ( business/economy/revenue-preparing-for-full-customschecks-post-brexit ) Denis Staunton Brexit: Canada model would leave NI in limbo, says Raab. IT, 6 September (www. irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-canada-modelwould-leave-ni-in-limbo-says-raab ) Irish Times Hard Brexit could push Ireland and Britain into recession. IT, 7 September ( com/business/economy/hard-brexit-could-push-irelandand-britain-into-recession ) RTE Tory Brexiteeers propose Common Bioscurity Zone to deal with border issue. RTE, 12 September ( Irish Times Varadkar and May have no substantive working relationship, Martin says. IT, 8 September ( Tony Connelly Brexit: the Slow Death of Chequers, or a Cliff Hanger Deal? RTE. 8 September (www. rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0908/ brexit-chequers-may) Tony Connelly Brexit: The Salzburg summit and the hard choices of the Endgame. RTE, 15 September (www. rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0915/ brexit-salzburg-summit)

9 Cliff Taylor Far more dangers in Brexit than just the Border. IT, 8 September ( opinion/cliff-taylor-far-more-danger-in-brexit-than-justthe-border ) RTE Irexit group seeking to register as political party. RTE, 8 September ( politics/2018/0908/ irexit-freedom-party) Independent Government willing to soften language of Irish backstop on avoiding hard Border in Brexit negotiations. Independent, 15 September (www. indeperndent.ie/business/brexit/govenment-willing-tosoften-language-of-irish-backstop-on-avoiding-hardborder-in-brexit-negotiation) Queen s University Researchers find that Brexit will threaten the peace process and weaken human rights and equality. QUB, 13 September ( News/Allnews/ResearchersfindthatBrexitwillthreatenthepeaceprocessandweakenhumanrightsandequality.html) Further Reading Michael J. Geary An Inconvenient Wait. Dublin, IPA. RTE EU officials working to re-draft Irish protocol. RTE, 13 September ( brexit/2018/0912/ brexit)eers-unveil-proposalsirish-border-.) RTE Tory Brexiteers propose Common Biosecurity Zone to deal with border issue. RTE, 12 September ( The Telegraph Brexiteers unveil their proposals for the Irish border question. Telegraph, 12 September ( Irish Times Republic could lose as much as UK from nodeal Brexit, says Moody s. IT, 13 September (www. irishtimes.com/economy/republic-could-lose-as-muchas-uk-from-no-deal-brexit-says-moody-s ) RTE UK must tackle Ireland over fishing before Brexit, British committee warns. RTE, 15 September ( Paul Gillespie UK constitutional crisis looms if Brexit talks founder. IT, 15 September ( com/opinion/uk-constitutional-crisis-looms-if-brexittalks-founder )

10 The Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) is Ireland s leading international affairs think tank. Founded in 1991, its mission is to foster and shape political, policy and public discourse in order to broaden awareness of international and European issues in Ireland and contribute to more informed strategic decisions by political, business and civil society leaders. The IIEA is independent of government and all political parties and is a not-for profit organisation with charitable status. In January 2017, the Global Go To Think Tank Index ranked the IIEA as Ireland s top think tank. Institute of International and European Affairs, September 2018 Creative Commons License This is a human-readable summary of (and not a substitute for) the license International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) You are free to: Share - copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format Adapt - remix, transform, and build upon the material The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. NonCommercial You may not use the material for commercial purposes. ShareAlike If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original. No additional restrictions You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits. The Institute of International and European Affairs, 8 North Great Georges Street, Dublin 1, Ireland T: F: E: reception@iiea.com W: www. iiea.com