Readings Readings will be articles and chapters on electronic reserve, roughly pages per week.

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1 Fall PA 388K Advanced Topics in Public Policy Environmental Security Busby, Joshua W. busbyj@utexas.edu Tues: 9 Noon, SRH 3.216/3.219 Office: Office hours: M 9-11, T 2-4pm Can environmental problems lead to security problems? Answers to this question require an understanding of what constitutes security. Security for whom? States? Individuals? This course will primarily review two waves of scholarship on environmental security, the first from the 1990s in which scholars assessed the connections between environmental problems and conflict, and the second from the 2000s on the connections between climate change and security. In the process, the course will review different conceptions of security, from narrow conceptions that focus on environmental change and conflict onset to broader understandings of human security. Along the way, other side discussions of environmental security will be explored in a limited way including (1) transboundary rivers and security, (2) environmental peacemaking and (3) the effects of war on the environment. Other contemporary issues including the wildlife poaching crisis and land grabs will also come up in a cursory way. Requirements and Expectations Course assignments will include a final paper, a grounding exercise related the readings to some news articles, two short writing assignments and class participation. Readings Readings will be articles and chapters on electronic reserve, roughly pages per week. COURSE REQUIREMENTS! Class Participation (15%)! Writing Assignments (20%)! Grounding Exercise (15%)! Final Paper (50%) Classroom Participation (15%) Classroom participation will be weighted as 15% of the final course grade. Students are expected to be active participants in each classroom session, having completed all assigned readings before each class period. Attendance will be 1

2 included in assessing classroom participation. Writing Assignments (20%): You need to write two 2-page response papers to the readings over the course of the semester for two different weeks. Your responses should be double-spaced. You should address all of the authors you read for that week. What is their argument? Do you agree with their assessment? Why or why not? This assignment will force you to be pithy. The best papers will provide a synthesis of some of the key points made in the readings, your own critical evaluation of and reactions to the readings, and comments on the conceptual implications of the readings. Do NOT sequentially summarize each of the readings. Response papers are due the beginning of the class for the topic on that given day. Grounding Exercise (15%): Take one of the topics you are not writing about for reading summaries and volunteer to do a grounding exercise. Each week, I will select some news article(s) that I think are relevant to the topic of the week, and we will spend the first thirty minutes of the class relating the news story to the week s readings. You will lead that discussion. In addition, I d like a one page double-spaced paper relating the news story to the readings for the week. You should hand that paper to me after you present. Final Paper (50%): Take two places that faced similar exposure to environmental harms but experienced different security outcomes (disasters, conflicts, riots, etc.). Explain why one place experienced those problems and the other did not. These can be two countries, two transboundary river basins, two sub-national areas within a country, two border regions. You will also discuss the policy implications of those insights. More detailed instructions about the essay will be handed out, but it will count for 50% of your grade and be roughly 15 pages in length (12-pt font, double-spaced) excluding the bibliography and graphics. * Late assignments will be penalized by 1/3 of a letter grade for every day late. Thus, an A- would become a B+, a B+ a B, etc. A grade 95- A- grade B grade B+ grade B- grade C+ grade C grade Keep in mind LBJ School policies on academic integrity. Duly cite and quote your sources in any written material. 2

3 Week 1 (September 5) - What is the environment? What is security? Johnson, D. L., S. H. Ambrose, T. J. Bassett, M. L. Bowmen, and et al. Meanings of Environmental Terms Journal of Environmental Quality; Madison 26, no. 3: Walt, Stephen M The Renaissance of Security Studies, International Studies Quarterly 35, no. 2 (1991): Mathews, Jessica Tuchman Redefining Security. Foreign Affairs 68, no. 2: Ullman, Richard Redefining Security. International Security 8, no. 1: Barnett, J., Matthew, R.A., O Brien, K.L., Global Environmental Change and Human Security: An Introduction, in: Matthew, R.A., Barnett, J., McDonald, B., O Brien, K.L. (Eds.), Global Environmental Change and Human Security. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp Paris, Roland Human Security: Paradigm Shift or Hot Air? International Security 26, no. 2: Paris, Roland Still an Inscrutable Concept. Security Dialogue 35, no. 3: Week 2 (September 12) - Environmental Security First Generation Malthus, Thomas An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapters 1-2, Kaplan, Robert, The Coming Anarchy. Atl. Mon. 273, Homer-Dixon, Thomas F On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict. International Security 16, no. 2 (1991): Homer-Dixon, Thomas F Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security 19, no. 1: Percival, Val, and Thomas Homer-Dixon Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of South Africa. Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 3, Special Issue on Environmental Conflict: Baechler, Günther Why Environmental Transformation Causes Violence: A Synthesis. Woodrow Wilson Center Conca, Ken and Geoffrey D. Dabelko Environmental Peacemaking (Washington, D.C. Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press ; Johns Hopkins University Press)., 1-23, Week 3 (September 19) First Generation Critiques Deudney, D., The Case Against Linking Environmental Degradation and National Security. Millennium 19,

4 Levy, M.A., Is the Environment a National Security Issue? Int. Secur. 20, Homer-Dixon, T.F., Levy, M.A., Environment and Security. Int. Secur. 20, Peluso, N.L., Watts, M. (Eds.), Violent Environments. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY Homer-Dixon, Thomas Exchange on Violent Environments Report. Environmental Change & Security Project, Woodrow Wilson Center Kahl, C.H., Review of Violent Environments (No. 8), Environmental Change and Security Project Report. Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, D.C Gleditsch, N.P., Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature. J. Peace Res. 35, Week 4 (September 26) Environment and Security 1 st Generation: The Bridge and the Quantitative Turn Kahl, C.H., States, scarcity, and civil strife in the developing world. Princeton University Press, Princeton de Soysa, I., The Resource Curse: Are Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity, in: Berdal, M., Malone, D.M. (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Ottawa, pp Hauge, W., Ellingsen, T., Causal Pathways to Conflict, in: Diehl, P.F., Gleditsch, N.P. (Eds.), Environmental Conflict. Westview Press, Boulder, pp Esty, D.C., Goldstone, J.A., Gurr, T.R., Harff, B., Levy, M., Dabelko, G., Surko, P.T., Unger, A.N., State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings, Environmental Change and Security Project Report. Woodrow Wilson Center Theisen, O.M., Blood and Soil? Resource Scarcity and Internal Armed Conflict Revisited. J. Peace Res. 45, Le Billon, Philippe The political ecology of war: natural resources and armed conflicts. Political Geography: Week 5 (October 3) Climate and Security A Policy Debate Begins Purvis, N., Busby, J., The Security Implications of Climate Change for the UN System Environ. Change Secur. Proj CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,

5 Busby, J., Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action. Council on Foreign Relations Campbell, K.M., Gulledge, J., McNeill, J.R., Podesta, J., Ogden, P., Fuerth, L., Woolsey, R.J., Lennon, A.T.J., Smith, J., Weitz, R., Mix, D., The Age of Consequences WBGU, Climate Change as a Security Risk: Summary for Policymakers Center for Climate and Security Climate Security National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Assessment, Climate and Security, Week 6-(October 10) Climate and conflict An Academic Debate Begins Hendrix, C.S., Glaser, S.M., Trends and Triggers: Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Polit. Geogr. 26, Levy, M.A., Thorkelson, C., Vörösmarty, C., Douglas, E., Humphreys, M., Freshwater Availability Anomalies and Outbreak of Internal War: Results from a Global Spatial Time Series Analysis. Columbia University Raleigh, C., Urdal, H., Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict. Polit. Geogr. 26, Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N.P., Theisen, O.M., Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict Gleditsch, N.P., Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. J. Peace Res. 49, 3 9. Meierding, Emily, Climate Change and Conflict: Avoiding Small Talk about the Weather, International Studies Review 15, no. 2 (June 1, 2013): Adger, W.N., Pulhin, J.M., Barnett, J., Dabelko, G.D., Oswald Spring, U., Vogel, C.H., : Human security, in: Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L. (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp Week 7- (October 17) Drought, Rainfall Shocks, Civil wars, Communal conflict 5

6 Theisen, O.M., Holtermann, H., Buhaug, H., Climate Wars? Assessing the Claim That Drought Breeds Conflict. Int. Secur. 36, Hendrix, C.S., Salehyan, I., Climate Shocks and Political Violence: Beyond Scarcity, Beyond Africa Raleigh, C., Kniveton, D., Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa. J. Peace Res. 49, Butler, C.K., Gates, S., African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights. J. Peace Res. 49, Benjaminsen, T.A., Alinon, K., Buhaug, H., Buseth, J.T., Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel? J. Peace Res. 49, Hendrix, C., Gates, S., Buhaug, H., Environment and Conflict, in: Mason, T.D., Mitchell, S.M. (Eds.), What Do We Know about Civil Wars? Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham, Maryland, pp Ki-Moon, B., A Climate Culprit in Darfur [WWW Document]. Wash. Post. URL de Waal, A., Is Climate Change the Culprit for Darfur? [WWW Document]. URL Homer-Dixon, T., Cause and Effect [WWW Document]. URL Kevane, Michael, and Leslie Gray Darfur: rainfall and conflict. Environmental Research Letters Week 8 - (October 24) Climate and Conflict - PRIO vs. Berkeley Burke, M.B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A., Lobell, D.B., Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, Buhaug, H., Climate not to blame for Africa s civil wars. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 107, Hsiang, S., Burke, M., Miguel, E., Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. Science Buhaug, H., Nordkvelle, J., Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Brzoska, M., Busby, J.W., Ciccone, A., Fjelde, H., Gartzke, E., Gleditsch, N.P., Goldstone, J.A., Hegre, H., Holtermann, H., Koubi, V., Link, J.S.A., Link, P.M., Lujala, P., O Loughlin, J., Raleigh, C., Scheffran, J., Schilling, J., Smith, 6

7 T.G., Theisen, O.M., Tol, R.S.J., Urdal, H., Uexkull, N. von, One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Clim. Change 127, Busby, Joshua. Why Do Climate Changes Lead to Conflict? Provocative New Study Leaves Questions. New Security Beat, September 13, Hsiang, S.M., Meng, K.C., Reconciling disagreement over climate-conflict results in Africa. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111, Buhaug, H., Concealing agreements over climate conflict results. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111, E636 E636. von Uexkull, Nina, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, and Halvard Buhaug Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: Week 9 - (October 31) Climate & Disasters Wheeler, David Mapping the Impacts of Climate Change. Center for Global Development. United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Sen, Amartya Development as Freedom. First Anchor Books, pp Smith, Alistair and Alejandro Quiroz Flores Disaster Politics. Foreign Affairs Kelman, Ilan Island Security and Disaster Diplomacy in the Context of Climate Change. Les Cahiers de La Sécurité 63: Nel, P., Righarts, M., Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict. Int. Stud. Q. 52, Bergholt, D., Lujala, P., Climate-Related Natural Disasters, Economic Growth, and Armed Civil Conflict. J. Peace Res. 49, Slettebak, R.T., Don t Blame the Weather! Climate-Related Natural Disasters and Civil Conflict. J. Peace Res. 49, Egorova, Aleksandra and Cullen Hendrix Can Natural Disasters Precipitate Peace? CCAPS Week 10 (November 7) (Dr. Busby likely in Bonn) Videos Age of Consequences, Climate of Conflict 7

8 Week 11 (November 14) Climate & Food Iglesias, Ana, Sonia Quiroga, and Agustin Diz Looking into the Future of Agriculture in a Changing Climate. European Review of Agricultural Economics 38, no. 3: Lunt Tobias, Aled W. Jones b, William S. Mulhern a, David P.M. Lezaks a, Molly M. Jahn Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector a,. Climate Risk Management 13 (2016) 1 9 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Global Food Security Koubi, Vally, Thomas Bernauer, Anna Kalbhenn, and Gabriele Spilker Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research 49 (1): Lagi, Marco Karla Z. Bertrand and Yaneer Bar-Yam The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. New England Complex Systems Institute Smith, T.G., Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest in Africa. CCAPS Hendrix, Cullen In Food Riots, Researchers Find a Divide Between Democracies and Autocracies. Wischnath, Gerdis, and Halvard Buhaug Rice or riots: On food production and conflict severity across India. Political Geography 43. Special Issue: Climate Change and Conflict: Week 12 (November 21) Climate & Water Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Global Water Security Wolf, A.T., Conflict and cooperation along international waterways. Water Policy 1, Stefano, L.D., Duncan, J., Dinar, S., Stahl, K., Strzepek, K.M., Wolf, A.T., Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins. J. Peace Res. 49, Tir, J., Stinnett, D.M., Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict? J. Peace Res. 49, World Bank High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy. 1-9, Busby, J., Water and Security. Council on Foreign Relations Sternberg, T Water Towers: Security Risks in a Changing Climate Troy Sternberg

9 USAID Water and Conflict Toolkit Week 13 (November 28) Climate & Migration Reuveny, R., Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Polit. Geogr. 26, Gleditsch, N.P., Nordås, R., Salehyan, I., Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link Coping Crisis Work. Pap. Ser Raleigh, C., Jordan, L., Salehyan, I., Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration and Conflict. Soc. Dimens. Clim. Change Werz, Michael and Laura Conley. Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict. Addressing complex crisis scenarios in the 21st Century. Center for American Progress McLeman, Robert Migration and Displacement in a Changing Climate. Center for Climate and Security Polk, W.R., Your Labor Day Syria Reader, Part 2: William Polk [WWW Document]. The Atlantic. URL Gleick, P.H., Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather Clim. Soc. 6, Kelley, Colin P., Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (11): Châtel, Francesca De The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising: Untangling the Triggers of the Revolution. Middle Eastern Studies 50 (4): Fröhlich, Christiane J Climate migrants as protestors? Dispelling misconceptions about global environmental change in pre-revolutionary Syria. Contemporary Levant 1 (1): Week 14 (December 5) Where Do We Go From Here? Dabelko, G.D., Risi, L.H., Null, S., Parker, M., Sticklor, R., Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. Wilson Center Backdraft Podcast Series. Listen on 1.5 times speed to at least 2 of the 7 episodes. Busby, Joshua. forthcoming. Environmental Security. In Handbook of International Security, edited by William C. Wohlforth and Alexandra Gheciu. Oxford University Press

10 Hendrix, C., Putting Environmental Stress (Back) on the Mass Atrocities Agenda. Stanley Foundation USAID Climate Change and Conflict Final Papers Due: Midnight, December 12 Publications RESOURCES Daniel Moran, Climate Change and National Security: A Country-Level Analysis, Georgetown University Press. David Reed, In Pursuit of Prosperity: U.S Foreign Policy in an Era of Natural Resource Scarcity. (Routledge). David Reed, Water, Security, and U.S. Foreign Policy Routledge (ask me about prepublication chapters) Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change. National_Security_of_Anticipated_Climate_Change.pdf Other USG Documents Other Govt & IOs

11 Organizational Resources Adelphi, American University, Inventory of Conflict and the Environment, American Security Project, Center for American Progress, Center for Climate and Security, Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS), CNA Corporation, Complex Emergencies and Political Stability in Asia (CEPSA), International Alert, New Security Beat, Oregon State, Transboundary Freswater Dispute Database, Pacific Institute, Water Conflict Chronology, Wilson Center Environmental Change and Security Program, Multi-Media Climate for Conflict Years of Living Dangerously Data UNEP Global Risk Data Platform EM-DAT International Disaster Database Munich-Re (German re-insurer with disaster data) 11

Climate change a threat to the waning of war?

Climate change a threat to the waning of war? WHO Collaborating Centre Course, Climate Change, Weather and Human Health Center for Environmental and Respiratory Research, University of Oulu, 29 October