The State of Politics Is expropriation a proxy for ANC factions? Die stand van die politiek Is die onteieningsdebat n proksie vir ANC verdeeltheid?
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1 The State of Politics Is expropriation a proxy for ANC factions? Die stand van die politiek Is die onteieningsdebat n proksie vir ANC verdeeltheid? PSG Bethlehem 11 Oktober 2018 Theo Venter Policy Specialist
2 Many a truth said in jest ( )! With acknowledgement: Jonathan Shapiro (Zapiro)
3 Outline / Uitleg Perception / Persepsie drywer van aksie Politics of Paradox / Politiek van Teenstrydighede Possible Scenarios / Moontlike uitkomste Land Reform / Grondhervorming Expectations / Verwagtinge
4 How does VUCA applies? Situation Effects Volatility Decision Making Complexity Ambiguity Uncertainty
5 The world at three levels The daily political, social, economic and technical noise The trends and especially trend-breaks, not so clearly visible Slow moving societal and cultural changes
6 The future: Perception is reality Perceiving. Developing a mental model - learning begins with perceiving Acting. Implementation, keeping track, monitoring and results Thinking about the future Embedding. Calibrating our mental models and developing a new language Concluding. Shared understanding, what if and simulating
7 The memory of the future We can only see when a crisis opens our eyes. We can only see what we have already experienced. We cannot see what is emotionally difficult to see. We can only see what is relevant to our view of the future. Source: A de Geus, 1997, The Living Company
8 VUCA demands Reframing Cognitive reframing (Upframing) A set of contrasting scenarios Contextual factors Conceptual past Here and Now Conceptual future Facts and trends influencing perception Perceptual reframing (Downframing)
9 South Africa towards 2019 and beyond Part One: How did we get here? - Nasrec & CR17 - Zuma out - Factions still active - Role of political opposition
10 South Africa towards 2019 and beyond Part One: How did we get here? - Nasrec & CR17 - Zuma out - Factions still active - Role of political opposition Part Two: Critical uncertainties - Virtuous Cycle - Vicious Cycle - Economy - Land Reform - Social cohesion - Political process
11 The Virtuous and Vicious Cycles Virtuous Cycle Centripetal forces dominate ( Seeking the centre ) Vicious Cycle Centrifugal forces dominate ( Moving away from the centre )
12 The Vicious and Virtuous Cycles (2018) No Russian nuclear deal Investigation into SSA (Sidney Mufamadi) Stimulus package Zondo Commission Nugent Commission SOE debt trap Economic recession Push back by Zuma Crime stats worsened Rating agencies? Talking about land Recognize unsustainable local government NW un administration / PTT replace PEC Mining Charter Parliament less of a joke Unemployment At 27% Policy uncertainty Government inefficiency Are we leaving the Russians for the Chinese? Education crisis
13 Zuma 9 point plan; Gigaba 14 point plan; Ramaphosa 7 point plan.. 1. Boost tourism and business travel 2. Finality on the revised Mining Charter 3. Allocate high-demand radio spectrum (Data costs) 4. Boost spending on agriculture 5. Kick-start the economies of townships 6. Fill critical medical posts 7. South Africa Infrastructure Fund
14 Mothlante Ramaphosa Real GDP Growth and Political Constraint Real y-o-y % GDP growth and political constraint (Inverted) De Klerk Mandela Mbeki Zuma
15 South Africa towards 2019 and beyond Part One: How did we get here? - Nasrec & CR17 - Zuma out - Factions still active - Role of political opposition Part Three: How does it all fit? - Transition - Dominant Party System - Political Dynamics 2019 Part Two: Critical uncertainties - Virtuous Cycle - Vicious Cycle - Economy - Land Reform - Social cohesion - Political process
16 The political landscape Theo Venter 2018
17 The political landscape 1. ANC: 54-58% 2. DA: 20-22% 3. EFF: 8-10% 4. IFP: 3-5% 5. Voter apathy 6. Voting by staying away 7. Bread and butter issues 8. Service Delivery 9. Corruption/Crime 10.Land Reform Theo Venter 2018
18 South Africa towards 2019 and beyond Bad Road Scenario Part Four: The way forward - The road to Beyond 2019? - Political realignment - Four scenario themes Part One: How did we get here? - Nasrec & CR17 - Zuma out - Factions still active - Role of political opposition Gravel Road Scenario Long Road Scenario Highway Scenario Part Three: How does it all fit? - Transition - Dominant Party System - Political Dynamics 2019 Part Two: Critical uncertainties - Virtuous Cycle - Vicious Cycle - Economy - Land Reform - Social cohesion - Political process
19 Land reform as an inflection point: A range of possible future outcomes Cloud of uncertainty EFF: Nationalisation of land ANC: Expropriation ONE of many options Current reality Parliamentary Process Land invasions Legal challenges 2019 Election DA: Property rights protected by Constitution
20 BASA reported un-audited figures which show that the quantum of loans that the four largest banks in South Africa made to farmers increased 11% from R133bn in December of 2017 to R148bn in June of Banks have invested about R1.6trn of South Africans savings, salaries and investments into property loans. Banks rely on these properties as security for the loans.
21 Mind-set issues Challenges status quo? Critical distance? Open opposition? Constructive engagement? Constitutional issues Change needed? Legal challenges Policy issues Policy uncertainty Specialist input Political issues Ideological positions Party political posturing Demography Urbanisation Rural development Historical issues Moral issues / Legislation Political choices Legal issues What is status quo What is changing? Economic issues The cost of EWC Food security Exports / International agreements Financial obligations Developmental issues Expanding farming base Emerging farmers set-up to fail Finance, training and markets Concentrate efforts
22 Expectations 1. EWC will stay a proxy for factions in the ANC. 2. Political and policy messages will remain ambivalent until elections Land will be an important election issue, apart from service delivery and corruption. 3. No policy certainty in the short term possible due to political inclusions and exclusions. 4. Constitution may change artificially to satisfy political constituencies. 5. Pressure on urban land will increase. Urban patterns will adapt. 6. Symbolic action on rural land innovative solutions from agricultural sector. 7. Interest groups will speed up action traditional leaders included. 8. Economic imperatives will temper political expectations (1913/1936/1948).
23 Thank You Baie Dankie Theo Venter Political and Policy
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China s meteoric rise over the past half century is one of the most striking examples of the impact of opening an economy up to global markets. Over that period the country has undergone a shift from a