30$:$Greece s$unlucky$number$ $

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1 30$:$Greece s$unlucky$number$ $ Jan$Marinus$Wiersma,$EFDSVice*President Danijel$Tadić,$EFDSProjectOfficer Judit$Tánczos,$FEPSPolicyAdvisor From a seemingly successful member state and an influential actor in the process of EU enlargement,greecehassunkintothedevastatingfinancial,politicalandsocialeffectsofthecrisis. This consideration made the country one of the target states for assessment visits in the framework of the FEPS*EFDS research programme Enhancing democracy pre* and post EU accession. The way Greece's supposed recovery process has been handled so far harmed to a largeextenttheeuropeanintegrationprocess.consequently,thisarticleaimstogiveanoverview of the current economic, political and social situation in Greece and advocate for the implementationoftheprogressivealternativepoliciesbothateuropeanandnationallevel. Policy$brief,$December$2013$ 1

2 Passiveresistancecantakecuriousforms.InGreece,thisresistancecoverspeopleincafés,barsand restaurants in a thick cloud of smoke. Passed at the height of the financial crisis, the law banning smokinginrestaurantswasahugefailure,eventhoughitsonlyaimwasimprovement.therewere some statistics presented on the health benefits, and it was also pointed out that it has not decreasedthenumberofguestsinsuchestablishmentsinothercountriesthatintroducedthisrule. Finally,pushedthroughwithoutanypriorconsultationorwithoutaddressingthecitizens'fears,this wasthelastdropofwaterintheglassintimesofseriousstrain.hence,smokingturnedintoaweird protest against the suffocating troika measures and a strange symbol of the freedom of Greek citizens.thisphenomenondescribeswellhowemotionalthedebatehasbecomeovertheausterity measuresandoverthepoliticalandsocialinsecurityinducedbythesemeasures. FromaseeminglysuccessfulmemberstateandaninfluentialactorintheprocessofEUenlargement, Greece has sunk into the devastating financial, political and social effects of the crisis. This consideration made the country one of the target states for assessment visits in the framework of the FEPS*EFDS research programme Enhancing democracy pre* and post EU accession. The way Greece'ssupposedrecoveryprocesshasbeenhandledsofarharmedtoalargeextenttheEuropean integration process. It seems that the focus is stuck on the fact that this member state previously underreporteditsbudgetdeficitandonblaminggreeceitselfforitscurrentchallenges.asimportant asitistopreventsuchapracticefromreoccurring,thisnegativeapproachwillnotbringasolutionto thecrisis.

3 Consequently, this article aims to give an overview of the current economic, political and social situationingreeceandadvocatefortheimplementationoftheprogressivealternativepoliciesboth ateuropean 1 andnationallevel 2. In$the$middle$of$political$turbulence Thelikelihoodofanewbailouthasre*launchedheateddebatesbothwithinandoutsideofGreece. Additionally, there are still far too many issues on the discussion table open for negotiations, includingthedetailsoftheprivatisationprogramme.thiswascaughtinanabsurdcircle:amarket that risks failing does not attract investors, but then again, this will be interpreted as a failure. Against this background and in view of the upcoming Greek presidency of the EU, starting on 1 January 2014, the objective of the country is to re*establish an image of political stability and optimism. Unfortunately, the reality is still far away from this ideal picture. The fragile economic recoverymightoffersomehopeforabrighterfuture,buttheoverallpoliticalinstabilitybreaksdown thesepositiveexpectations. TheneonaziGoldenDawn,whosepartyleaderandseveralmemberswererecentlyarrestedafterthe murderofpavlosfyssas,agreekleft*wingmusician,isinthemiddleofthispoliticalturbulence.they are accused of murder, money*laundering, blackmail and illegal possession of arms. For historical reasons, the Greek constitution is silent on the subject of banning a political party. Nevertheless, eversinceitsadoptionin1975ithasbeeninterpretedthatthelackofanexplicitprovisionmeans thattheconstitutiondoesnotallowforsuchaban.thisexplainstoacertainextentthedifficultiesof crackdownongoldendawn,butcertainlydoesnotjustifysuchalateintervention.overthepastfew years,severalhundredsofincidentswereregisteredonthewebsiteoftheracistviolencerecording Network. 3 These events were mainly reported by migrants who suffered assault by Golden Dawn members.thisnetworkalreadyissueditsfirstalarmingreportinmarch2012.thefactthatpolice officers were often present at these attacks as bystanders enforces the assumption that Golden Dawn successfully infiltrated and had close ties with polices forces. These facts seemed not to alternate the current prime minister's hope of Golden Dawn becoming more moderate. The crackdownonthepartywasaccomplishedonlyafterthemurderofagreekcitizen.inlinewiththe Constitution,thishasnotmeantthedissolutionofthepartyforitsfar*rightideology,butmerelya differentiation among its members on the basis of involvement in violent action which risks of banalisingthissevereissue.unsuprisingly,thearrestshadverylittleeffectontheelectoralsupport ofgoldendawn. Following the suspicious and unresolved murder case of two Golden Dawn activists, the party currently has two martyrs. It has regained media exposure and rebounded on the third place of voting preferences according to the most recent opinion polls. Most analysts agree that Golden Dawniseffectivelyaprotestvote,expressingmoreofacondemnationofapoliticalsystemassuch thanapositiveendorsementforaprogramme. 1 Seeforexample:SeriesofNextLeftbooks;ProgressivePoliticsaftertheCrash:GoverningfromtheLeft; 2 Seeforexample:$Greece2050:lowemissions,cleanenergy,sustainabledevelopment;INEE*GSEE DevelopmentPrograms(printversion,onlyinGreek), Formoreinformationonthenetwork,pleasevisit:

4 On the left side of the political spectrum the populist SYRIZA has grown spectacularly. As the coalitionofleftwingparties,rangingfromradicalstomoremoderateones,itrejectstheso*called memorandumontheausterityprogramme,theagreementbetweenthegreekgovernmentandthe TroikaoftheEuropeanCommission,theEuropeanCentralBankandInternationalMonetaryFund. The populism of their approach comes from the fact that there is a lack of clarity on what the alternative is, with opinions varying to such a wide degree that it goes well beyond intraparty pluralism. According to most recent polls, SYRIZA leads in voting preferences and might easily becomethebiggestpoliticalpartyinthegreekparliamentafterthenextelections.ifthiswillbethe case,somequestionswillstillremainopen:whichsegmentsofthepartywillprevail;whatcoalitions willbesought; how a multi*polar party will consolidate a single policy trajectory. Withregardsto these dilemmas, analysts are as perplexed as voters. Even though the party has never officially declaredtobeanti*eu,withitsstrongoppositiontothememorandum,thisdevelopmentcouldlead toimmenseconsequencesontherelationsbetweengreeceandbrussels. Thesuddenriseofnewcomersintothepoliticalsystem,evenbeyondSYRIZAandGoldenDawn,is undoubtedly closely linked with the financial and economic crisis and points towards the further polarisationofthegreekpoliticallandscapeintheupcomingperiod.therightandtheleftcannot consolidateintobigpartyformationsinwhattraditionallyhasbeenamajoritarianpoliticalsystem. Thetwopreviouslydominantparties,theconservativeNDandthesocial*democraticPASOKareheld responsible for the current devastating situation, hencetheyhaveleft an electoralvacuumfor all incomingpoliticalformations. WithaManifestosignedby58intellectuals,therehasbeenacallforarenewedcenter*leftthrougha merger between the two existing center*left political parties PASOK and DIMAR. While PASOK activelysupportedthisinitiative,dimarhasraisedseveralreservations.thetextitselfwasheavily criticisedofbeingvague,movingalongthelinesofanideologicallowestcommondenominator,with fewifanypolemicalarguments,ratherthanpavingthewayforasolidprogrammaticplatformfor renewal. Most importantly, this was a clearly elitist initiative with little social or institutional referents.althoughthe58signatoriesaremoralauthoritiesingreece,amongthemonlyafeware under50andtherearehardlyanywomen.hence,initscurrentform,theinitiativeisverylikelytobe stuck or, even worse, add to polarization. PASOK is perceived to have lost all its credibility by remaininginthecoalitiongovernment,withoutadistinctimprintonpolicy,oranysolidsignpointing towardsrenewal.additionally,ithasbeenlargelycriticisedthatwhilesyrizaendorsedalternative proposalstocrisismanagementarrivingfromtradeunionsandleftleaningcivilsocietyorganisations, PASOKdidnottakeontheseinitiatives.Inthesecircumstances,theproposedManifestoisnotlikely tobeperceivedasacommitmentforrenewal. 30% Sincetheoutburstofthecrisisalleconomicindicatorsareintheredzone.Inthesecircumstances, the number thirty has become Greece's unlucky number. The GDP dropped by 30%, the unemploymentratealmostreached30%andfinally,30%ofgreekslivebelowthepovertyline.such numbers would cause tensions in any democratic country and Greece is no exception. After the

5 financial and economic crisis, the country has drifted to a deep democrisis. This brings the EU integration process into severe difficulties as well. There is still support for leaving the Eurozone, whichleadstodiverseconspiracytheoriesonpatientlywaiting,influentialspeculatorswhowould profit from the reintroduction of drachma. Such rumours illustrate well the public feelings of deception,helplessnessandinsecurity.againstthisbackground,itshouldnotcomeasasurprisethat thereisachangingwindfromtheprimeminister,antonissamaras(nd)aswell.beingstronglyanti* memorandumbeforetheelections,hisattitudehaschangedwhileinoffice.withthenewelections approaching,heseemstohaverevisedhisopinion.herecentlymadeastrongstatementthatthe countryhadalreadyreacheditslimitsoffurthersavingandincreasingtaxes.however,accordingto therecentnews,thiswillnotpreventthetroikafromdemandingnewmeasuresofanadditional2 billioneuro.thereisoneconstantelementintheprimeminister sdiscourse.hecontinueswithhis stronganti*immigrantdiscourseinordertostoptheshiftofworkingclassvoterstothefarright.this strategyhascauseduneaseinthetraditionallyliberalcentreoftheparty. Signs$of$recovery The EU is in a serious dilemma. Based on past abuses, it could insist on Greece fulfilling 100% its obligations. This would clearly mean further cuts and would put the country under even higher pressure, not only in economic terms, but also socially and politically. It would precipitate an inevitable and extremely fast divergence towards the political extremes. There are also further arguments in favour of a more flexible construction, as finally some signs of recovery can be observed. The fiscal balance has improved, tourism is increasing, economic growth and achieving primarysurplusisforeseenfor2014.nevertheless,statedebtremainsexcessivelyhighandagreat riskforeconomicrecovery.greece seconomyandlabourforcereliesheavilyonsmallbusinesses. Without access to finance and with ever declining consumption, there will be no possibility for increasing employment or exporting more. Hence, it will not be able to move on. Additionally, foreigninvestmentisalsonotforthcoming.greekeconomistshopethatthetroikawillbereadyto help decreasing the pressure by spreading the debt repayment over a longer period for lower interestrates. However,unfortunatelynottoomanyGreekcitizenswillbedirectlysupportedwithsuchmeasures. TheTroikaiscurrentlyputtingpressureforthebanonprotectionofhouseholds,whichcouldvery well become the tipping point for socioeconomic cohesion. Even if recession does come to a standstill, which is the most positive scenario, neither severely cut salaries and pensions will increase,norjobsberestored.thiswinterarriveswiththousandsofhomeswithoutheatingand/or electricity.narrowingdownthedeficitcomesathugesocialcostandthisiswelldemonstratedby thegrowingqueuesinfrontofthesoupkitchenofthecenterforhospitalityandsolidarityofthe municipalityofathens.traditionalfamilytiesarestillstrongin the country and it served as a fall backformanypeople.butitcannotmaskthefactthattherehasbeena500%increaseindemand fromfamiliesforsupporttomaintaintheirhomesandthattheapplicationsforsocialhousingare almost ten times higher than the scarcely available places. According to the statistics of the NGO Praksis, there has been a significant fall in the income of families benefiting from such schemes. Whileitwas8639europerfamilyperyearin2010,itdroppedto3158euroin2012.Additionally,

6 relyingmoreonfamilytiesleadtoabacklashintermsofdefininggenderrolesinthesociety,causing asevereincreaseinwomen sdiscriminationinvariousfieldsoflife. 4 Againstthisbackground,thesmokeprotestcanbeseenasafiercebutdesperateefforttosomehow draw the attention to the fact that behind economic numbers, there is the vulnerable societal texture.itisunfairtodemandafeelingofcommonresponsibilityfromthegreeknationasawhole whenthestatedebthas not been caused by those, whocurrentlysufferthemostfromausterity measures.thestricteuropeanchampionsofrectitude shouldtakethisintoaccountandallowfor measures that could restore trust and hope in the future. Otherwise, the political boomerang launchedingreecewillreturnwithaharder,antidemocraticandpopulisthitonthewholeeuropean integrationprocess.establishingaslowerreformtempowouldbeessentialfromthispointofview. Butitalsopresupposesthatinsteadofatopdown,executiveapproach,theTroikashouldopenup for dialogue on recovery. Including the findings of the above*mentioned national alternatives for recoverywouldnotonlybesymbolicgesture.moreimportantly,itwouldalsohelpforthesocietyto regain ownershipabouttheprocessesthatcurrentlyseemtobeuncontrolled.thisshould be the basis of empowering Greek society about its future and make out of the smoky uncertainty a clearerpathforrecovery. The$authors$would$like$to$thank$kindly$for$Ms.$Maria$Eleni$Koppa,$MEP$and$her$team$in$Athens,$Mr.$ Ilia$Roubanis$and$Ms.$Lina$Sistani$for$their$support$in$the$organisation$of$the$assessment$visit.$ 4 Foranin*depthanalysis,please,readGenderequalityintheGreeklabourmarket.