Mandela s Legacy Betrayed

Transcription

1 Mandela s Legacy Betrayed South Africa after Mandela s death and before this year s election Arnold Wehmhoerner FEPS Correspondent for Southern Africa While the world mourned Nelson Mandela and while in many speeches and articles his achievements and personality were praised, many commentators from overseas but also in the local press point out that the present South African leadership is not living up to Mandela s ideals and has betrayed his legacy. With unions considering withdrawal from the tripartite alliance, there is potential for a significant watershed in the post- apartheid history of South Africa. Gross inequalities that still exist but Mandela s legacy still lives on in keeping South African society from falling apart. This piece analyses the potential for change in the political landscape in the forseeable future. Conference Paper, Call to Europe, September

2 While the world mourned Nelson Mandela and while in many speeches and articles his achievements and personality were praised, many commentators from overseas but also in the local press point out that the present South African leadership is not living up to Mandela s ideals and has betrayed his legacy. During the memorial service in Johannesburg in the presence of numerous invited international leaders President Jacob Zuma was booed whenever he spoke or his name was mentioned. The ANC leadership was shocked. The support for the liberation party was thought to be guaranteed no matter who leads the party or how the party is performing. We will govern until Jesus comes or for ever and ever are the slogans of a confident Zuma. But it seems that the times of smooth sailing are over for the ANC. According to a recent survey 1 it appears that the ANC has lost 19% of its overall support since 2008 and that the party might only reach 53% in the upcoming elections for the National Assembly and the nine provincial legislatures to be held on 7 th May. For many parties in democracies such a poll would be considered overwhelmingly good but not for the ANC which had never fallen below 60% since 1994 in two national and two local elections. The losses are attributed to leadership issues, the 2012 Marikana shootings when 34 demonstrating miners were killed by the police as well as the corruption surrounding the upgrading of President Zuma s private homestead in Nkandla with over 20 Million Euro from taxpayers money under the pretext of security concerns. Other contributing issues are the ongoing service delivery protests and the formation of new parties. To keep Zuma is suicide for the ANC, writes the Sunday Independent 2. But just a couple of months ahead of the elections it is too late to change the leader. In any case, to remove Zuma will be difficult because he is a skilled manipulator who with his policy of patronage keeps his party fellows on track. This is possible because the party of Nelson Mandela has changed fundamentally. This became obvious at the ANC congress in Mangaung 2012 when Zuma was re- elected as party president. The new party members of the ANC are no longer freedom fighters who took personal risks of prosecution under the apartheid regime but most are rather opportunists who seek professional advancement with the aid of the party. 1 Ipsos survey: December,

3 This year nobody expects the ANC to lose its majority in the National Assembly. But a bad result would make members to look ahead at the next local elections in two years time which are more important for party members. Presently there are 264 ANC MPs in the national parliament. If some are not re- elected they probably would have alternatives in the private sector. But a defeat for any of the presently 5632 ANC councillors in the country s 278 metro, district and local councils could mean dropping out of the middle class into the squatter camp. 3 Zuma might face his real challenge only after the elections. In party circles it is discussed to get Zuma to exit the presidency in about two years from now. But he is refusing even with guarantees about indemnity. 4 At the same memorial service, President Mugabe from Zimbabwe was cheered; a president who is accused of gross human rights violations, of rigging elections and who has run the Zimbabwean economy into near bankruptcy. Mugabe s popularity is built on his policy of expropriation of white farmers without compensation. Julius Malema, the former president of the ANC Youth League who was expelled from the ANC rides on the same sentiments and formed a new party, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The party issued a populist agenda of nationalisation of industry and land. The survey predicted that Malema s party would receive 4% of the votes and in his home province Limpopo over 10%. 5 This would be excellent for a start- up party, and because the votes would mainly come from former ANC supporters especially among the youth, the EFF is a real danger for the ANC. COPE (Congress of the People), the split off from the ANC, did not perform too badly at the 2009 elections with 7.4% of the votes. Since then leadership struggles have weakened the party considerably and the party failed to present a convincing political alternative to the ANC. COPE is not expected to pass the 1% line. The DA (Democratic Alliance) is the strongest opposition party. From around 12% in 2004 the party increased its share to around 24% in the local elections The alliance governs Cape Town and the Western Province and had good results in urban industrialised centres like Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth), Johannesburg, and Tshwane (Pretoria) all with around 35%. The DA has been mopping up the votes from white, coloured and Indian 3 Allister Sparks: Zuma will cost ANC dearly in Cape Times, Susan Booysen: Succession battle is an exhibit of life beyond Zuma in Sunday Independent, Politicsweb, quoting Ipsos survey ,

4 communities which constitute about 20% of the population. The challenge for the DA is whether the party will be able to make deeper inroads into the black middle class. The good performance in urban centres seems to be an indication that this might be possible. At the survey the DA scored 18% nationwide, and would confidently win Western Cape with over 50% and beat the ANC in Northern Cape with over 45%. Another new political player ahead of this year s election is Agang/SA (which can be interpreted in English as Build South Africa ), a party founded by South Africa s leading black intellectual Mamphela Ramphele. 6 She is a former black consciousness activist, vice chancellor of the University of Cape Town and Managing Director of the World Bank. But one cannot build a party on the back of one strong personality alone. The party has difficulties to reach the voter on the ground and is not expected to fare well. The most serious challenge for Zuma and the ANC leadership comes from the trade unions. NUMSA (National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa), the strongest union in the national trade union federation COSATU, with around 300,000 members, at its national congress in December 2013 called for the resignation of Zuma and resolved that the union would neither verbally nor financially support the ANC in the elections. NUMSA also asked COSATU to withdraw from the tripartite alliance with the ANC and the SACP (South African Communist Party). If this happens it would indeed be a political watershed in the post- apartheid history of South Africa. COSATU which was a decisive force in replacing Mbeki with Zuma at the Polokwane congress in 2007 is now split in its support for Zuma. On several occasions COSATU s Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi publicly criticised the government and its lack of determination to fight corruption. In a report to the June 2011 COSATU central committee meeting Vavi states that after the Polokwane congress of the ANC 2007 when Zuma was elected party president, we have seen the emergence of a powerful, corrupt, predatory elite, combined with a conservative populist agenda 7 To name the Zuma leadership corrupt and predatory is indeed an affront. The reaction of the ANC was swift. The pro- Zuma COSATU President Siduma Dlamini achieved Vavi s suspension from office over an affair with an employee in his office and over alleged financial 6 Book to be recommended: Mamphela Ramphele: Laying Ghosts to Rest Dilemmas of the transformation in South Africa, Cape Town, COSATU secretary- general: Secretariat report to the 5 th COSATU central committee 2011, p. 10 in Richard Calland: The Zuma Years, Cape Town 2013, page 211 4

5 irregularities. Several unions have called for a special COSATU congress to discuss Vavi s removal. Dlamini blocks such a meeting because he fears Vavi s popularity with the rank and file. During the anti- apartheid struggle ANC and COSATU were natural allies and worked closely together. This cooperation continued after the political changes in 1994 and led to the tripartite alliance with the SACP. 20 years later the conditions for such cooperation are different. From a freedom movement the ANC became a party in government. COSATU changed as well. In 1991 public sector unions constituted 7% of the membership, in 2012 this has increased to 39%. The ANC in government is now the single largest employer for COSATU affiliates sitting on the opposite side of the bargaining table. Nelson Mandela showed South Africa the way towards reconciliation of its racially divided society and this legacy still lives on and keeps South African society from falling apart despite the gross inequalities that still exist. The other strategic decision which he made during his term as president was to keep the economy within the Western capitalist domain instead of following the ANC s manifestos towards nationalisation of key industries. His successors Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma upheld this economic principle, today laid down in the NDP (National Development Plan). COSATU was instrumental in making Zuma president of South Africa. At the end of his first term some unions realized that the federation is not harvesting the fruits of its support for Zuma. 8 Some unions were expecting an economic policy more to the left and are now confronted with what they consider to be a conservative NDP. The upcoming leadership struggle in COSATU, therefore, is not just about for or against Zuma but is also one about South Africa s economic policy. A policy more to the left means for most poor South Africans nationalisation of basic industries, especially the mining industry, and expropriation of land without compensation. But the leaders of the unions, especially in the private sector, are close to the present economic system; also because most of the unions have their own investment units. They know that nationalisation can lead to an economic disaster. Zimbabwe is a convincing negative example. In an assessment of Economic Freedom Fighter s nationalisation policy NUMSA writes: We know that nationalisation by itself is not 8 Richard Calland, 2013, page 208 quoting Frans Baleni, NUM (National Union of Minworkers) secretary general 5

6 necessary in the interest of the working class. 9 Whichever faction in COSATU will be dominant; a fundamental change with regard to nationalisation, therefore, is not to be expected. Criticism about the lack of performance and slow pace of change in South Africa should be voiced carefully because one cannot ignore the herculean task the governments of Mandela, Mbeki and Zuma faced since 1994 to overcome the fault lines created by the former apartheid regime. The material conditions of all South Africans have improved but the service delivery protests will continue because too many people are still living in poverty and the huge gap between the rich and the poor is obvious in every corner of the country. A black middle class has formed. But that new class relyies heavily on the public sector which has increased by 20 per cent between 1998 and This increase in the public sector went along with continuously rising salaries. The government budget is further stressed by social welfare payments to every third South African. A continuation of this hand- out policy is only possible if the economy does well and maintains high growth rates. But this is not the case. In comparison to other emerging economies like those of Brazil or India, South Africa s economy is falling behind with a GDP growth rate of only 1.9% for Investors confidence is sinking 11, the negative trade balance is rising and the Rand lost a quarter of its value against the US Dollar in 2013 and continues to fall in January The 2014 ANC election manifesto again promises more jobs, schools and housing in huge numbers without an indication on how to finance this. Pies from the sky writes a commentator. 12 Despite challenges from new parties and the unions the ANC and Zuma will be re- elected. The country is looking at another five years under the leadership of Zuma if the ANC is not able to remove him. His moderation skills, which were seen to be positive assets at the beginning of his term, have failed to produce the firm leadership necessary in a modern economy. Available evidence suggests that he is not on top of the issues, analyses a political scientist. 13 Zuma doesn t care about the sophistications of South Africa; he has targeted the poor presenting himself as a messiah. However, the poor are beginning to 9 NUMSA s assessment of the EFF, 09 January 2014, in Politicsweb 10 Calland, 2013, page Nic Borain: What I will tell investors in 2014 in Mail and Guardian, Donald Pressly in Business Report, Calland, 2013, page 50 6

7 suss out his game 14 writes the brother of former president Thabo Mbeki. The president avoided a court case over alleged corruption and did not clear his name. This past is haunting him like a sword of Damocles and makes him unfit to lead the fight against corruption. On the contrary, the Nkandla affair has made it obvious that he tolerates corruption. His patronage policy has changed the soul of the ANC and has eroded the party s core values. And the bitter truth is that the former party of Nelson Mandela probably no longer has the democratic strength and moral values to change its course under Zuma of its own accord. The voter must force the ANC to do so, after the local elections in 2016 or after the national elections for a country in crisis, one or two elections could be too long to wait. 14 Moeletsi Mbeki quoted in Calland, 2013, page 423 7