Can you measure social cohesion in South Africa?

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1 Can you measure social cohesion in South Africa? And can you fix what you don t measure? Alan Hirsch The Presidency, South Africa and University of Cape Town 1

2 Findings of the OECD Development Centre Global Development Report - Social cohesion is made up of social inclusion, social capital and social mobility Social cohesion supports economic growth Key areas of policy to support cohesion are: Fiscal and tax design Employment Social protection Civic participation Education Gender and Migration 2

3 Findings in terms of the OECD Global Development Report South Africa South Africa is ahead of the pack in fiscal and tax design Social protection is relatively well developed; South Africa is one of the leaders amongst developing countries South Africa has positive indicators for trends of employment of women and women s political representation Civic participation is good On education, participation is good, but quality is poor for the poor On employment, the market has done poorly but there are good public employment programmes On migration, there is a hostility towards immigrants from other parts of Africa We will explore these indicators in more detail 3

4 Political participation Table Voter participation in national and provincial elections 1994 % 1999 % 2004 % 2009 % Voting age population (VAP) VAP registered no registration % % % Turnout % Turnout of VAP 86.0% 71.2% 57.8% 65.0% % Turnout of registered VAP no registration 89.3% 76.7% 77.3% Under 35 years VAP under VAP under 35 registered % % % No turnout data 4

5 Years Mortality rate LIFE EXPECTANCY LE male StatsSA LE combined StatsSA LE female StatsSA LE combined ASSA 5

6 Female representation Table 1 Women members of Parliament and Provincial Legislatures Female Total % Female Total % Female Total % Female Total % Parliament % % % % Provincial Legislatures Eastern Cape % % % % Free State % % % % Gauteng % % % % Kw azulu-natal % % % % Limpopo % % % % Mpumalanga % % % % North West % % % % Northern Cape % % % % Western Cape % % % % Total % % % % 6

7 Social Assistance Support Grant type 1999/ / / / / / / / /08* 2008/ / /11 Old Age Grant War Veterans Grant Disability Grant Foster Child Grant Child Dependency Grant Child Support Grant Total Growth Rate 5.8% 40.4% 5.5% 23.4% 31.8% 21.5% 39.1% 9.5% 3.4% 5.2% 7.5% 6% Grant-in-aid

8 Public employment programmes Expanded Public Works Programme Work Opportunities per sector per year Sector 2009/ / /12 Q3 Environmental & Culture Infrastructure Non-State Social Total

9 Poverty levels Percentage of population living below R422 poverty line (in 2008 constant Rand) R422 a month poverty line (AMPS) 50.1% 50.5% 51.7% 53.1% 51.2% 51.0% 52.1% 50.8% 51.4% 49.0% 47.6%46.9% 44.5% 43.9% 38.2% 33.9% 34.5% Percentage of population living below various poverty lines (in 2009 constant Rand from GHS) Expenditure Poverty Line [R per person per month] 70% 65% Income Poverty Line [R per person per month] 59% 46% Expenditure Poverty Line [R per person per month] 54% 49% Income Poverty Line [R per person per month] 40% 27% Expenditure Poverty Line [R per person per month] 31% 25% Income Poverty Line [R per person per month] 23% 12% 9

10 index Gender parity at school GENDER PARITY INDEX Primary GPI Secondary GPI 10

11 % Pre-School participation CHILDREN ATTENDING ECD FACILITIES year olds 3-5 year olds 5 year olds 11

12 Decline in child and infant mortality 12

13 number Access to electricity HOUSEHOLDS WITH ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /95 Total number of households HH with access to electricity 13

14 Why, then, is society not cohesive? Unemployment level Inequality Race and class (Irish coffee) Poor services to the poor Structural legacies of colonialism and apartheid (initial conditions matter) 14

15 % Unemployment Level Unemployment rate by age group and gender Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Male Female 15

16 Inequality GHS Gini Coefficient for Income and Expenditure Province Income Expenditure Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga Northern Cape North West Western Cape

17 % Class and race Number of those who were of the opinion that race relations are improving expressed as a proportion of the total population May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov

18 Maternal mortality Estimated MMR, deaths per live births Region Australia Brazil Chile Colombia Malysia Mauritius Mexico Nigeria South Africa Thailand Africa Sub-Sahara World Total

19 Sexual Assault Reported Cases 2003/ / / / / / / /11 Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu- Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga North West Northern Cape Western Cape Reported cases

20 The system of accountability is leaky Poor forms of representation (constitution, list system and the liberation dividend) Weak leadership in parts of government, especially local government, corruption, nepotism and incompetence Stagnation of politics Let s look at inverse measurements of social cohesion. 20

21 Service delivery protests J. De Visser & D. Powell (2012) Service Delivery Protest Barometer Cape Town: Multi-level Government Initiative, Community Law Centre. 21

22 Protest growth rate J. De Visser & D. Powell (2012) Service Delivery Protest Barometer Cape Town: Multi-level Government Initiative, Community Law Centre. 22

23 Nature of grievances J. De Visser & D. Powell (2012) Service Delivery Protest Barometer Cape Town: Multi-level Government Initiative, Community Law Centre. 23

24 Violence trend J. De Visser & D. Powell (2012) Service Delivery Protest Barometer Cape Town: Multi-level Government Initiative, Community Law Centre. 24

25 Marikana-revealing structural faults Marikana erupted due to structural fissures in South African society that threaten social cohesion deep fissures, with roots in colonialism and apartheid, that don t appear to threaten the overall integrity of the society in the short-term, but weaken growth and development prospects through undermining social cohesion 25

26 Marikana-Why? The cleavages are about colonial-style migrant labour, unions that represent white collar, not blue collar workers in a weakening industrial relations environment, extreme inequality of rewards in the mining sector (and elsewhere), poor living conditions and inferior services for the relatively poor not absolute poverty See Gavin Hartford: 26

27 Need to look beyond general data to structural fractures in society Indicators on inclusion, mobility and social capital are important and provide valuable insights In many respects, South African achievements after only 18 years of democracy are impressive: declining poverty, improved access to infrastructure, services, health and education But in societies that are deeply fractured, its not enough to reform at a macro-programme level and aggregates of data don t work We need to address issues like: the continuation of old-fashioned migrant labour Poor forms of political representation/accountability Extreme manifestations of inequality The quality of social services for the poor vs. the rest 27

28 The risks of focusing on what we can measure In most important ways South Africa is a well managed country: Democratic rights Rule of law Fiscal and monetary management Even, significantly declining crime levels and improving health indicators Many social and social security interventions were introduced to address inequality social transfers, public employment programmes, compulsory education, the largest government ARV programme etc. But, there are structural faults in the society that wont be repaired by general programmes and they are not reflected traditional aggregated indicators Suitable indicators are important, but so are policies which accept that there is a lot that benchmark social programmes cant fix 28

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