Theory. John N. Lee. Summer Florida State University. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

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1 Theory John N. Lee Florida State University Summer 2010 John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

2 Poverty in the United States Poverty Line A specified annual income which distinguishes between those who are in poverty and those who are not in poverty. If you make less than the poverty line you are in poverty. In the United States the poverty line for single individuals is 10,830 dollars and the poverty line for a family of four is 22,050 dollars. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

3 Poverty in the United States For Hispanics, 21.5% were in poverty in 2007, up from 20.6% in Poverty rates remained statistically unchanged for non-hispanic whites (8.2%), blacks (24.5%) and Asians (10.2%) in Map What do we make of this category non-hispanic whites? What about non-hispanic blacks? John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

4 Poverty - Final Thoughts Some public opinion... Are immigrants from Latin America more likely to end up on welfare...37% yes 44% no. 53% of Americans think that welfare Changes things for the worse by making able-bodied people too dependent on government aid. What about farm subsidies (64% of Americans say they should not be cut). We are essentially spending hundreds of millions annually on subsidies so that farmers won t end up on welfare. Do Americans just not like the idea of welfare? John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

5 Variables - We ll Be Back Variable A numerical representation of a characteristic in the world. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

6 Observing the World Types of Variables Measure A direct representation of a characteristic in the real world. Example: We want to gather data on the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the countries of the world. A measure of their GDP is their actual GDP. But not everything is so simple...what about abstract concepts such as democracy or human rights protections? John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

7 Observing the World Types of Variables Indicator An indirect representation of a characteristic in the real world. Example: We want to gather data on the level of democracy present in all countries in the world. To do this we use an indicator. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

8 How do we indicate democracy? One measure, amongst many, is the Polity IV dataset. This dataset codes the level of democracy in all countries of the world throughout history by looking at things such as... 1 Free and fair elections. 2 Freedom of the Press. 3 Popularly elected leaders actually getting to rule. 4 Freedom of Speech. How do we indicate these characteristics of other countries? Teams of researchers (usually 3 5) work together to come up with consensus numerical determinations. They ask questions such as... On a scale of zero to five how would we rate this country s protection of the freedom of speech? John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

9 Indicators v. Measures There are some distinctions 1 While Indicators are numerical representations of reality their numbers are not precise. As an example if we say that the United States scores a 10 on an indicator of democracy and that Ghana scores a 9, it is not clear how much of a difference there is between the country s scores. Certainly there is a difference, but to what extent? In a nutshell, we do not know the precise distance between the numbers. 2 Measures, on the other hand are literal measures of reality so their numbers are precise. When we measure GDP, we know, down to the dollar of value how much a country produced. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

10 Thus we have variables A variable is a measure or indicator of a phenomena in the real world. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

11 Theory Theory An explanation of the relationship between variables. Theoretical distinctions between variables. 1 Dependent Variable A variable we hope to explain. 2 Independent Variable Something we think will, partially or completely, explain the different values a dependent variable takes. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

12 Elements of a Theory Assumptions Building block of theories. Propositions that are taken for granted. A set of assumptions makes up a theory. Example: Assumption 1: X causes Y. Assumption 2: Y causes Z. Resulting theory: X causes Z. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

13 Parsimony Principle of Parsimony We want simple theories which can explain large parts of reality. Usually, the simpler the theory the more of reality it can explain. Simpler theories might be less accurate. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

14 Falsifiability We want theories that are falsifiable and not tautological. 1.) Falsifiability Means a theory can be proven wrong. 2.) Tautological Means that a theory is always right and cannot be proven wrong. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

15 First Principle of Wing Walking First Principle of Wing Walking We accept a theory if there are no better theories. Example: Why chose National Missile Defense instead of Mutually Assured Destruction? John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

16 Judging Theories When we judge theories there are two things we can look at. 1.) Logical Consistency A theory s assumptions do not contradict one another. Example: Assumption 1: X causes Y. Assumption 2: Y causes X. Theory: No conclusion. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

17 Judging Theories Usefulness 2.) Is a theory useful? Does its predictions depict reality or do they predict things which do not occur? If a theory predicts a good amount of what goes on in the real world we say it is useful. We use statistical analysis to judge the usefulness of theories. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

18 Now that we know how theories are constructed and evaluated let s talk about a real theory in political science. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

19 Selectorate Theory Most theories identify a puzzle and try to provide an explanation. Selectorate Theory is an attempt to explain the democratic peace. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

20 Democratic Peace Democratic states fight each other very infrequently. Non-democratic states tend to fight one another. A caveat is that democracies are more likely to fight non-democracies. Why? Lake argues that democratic states allow less rent seeking and therefore have better economies and are thus more powerful. Empirical support is lacking. Some argue that democracies are simply non-combative. But why do they fight non-democracies? John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

21 Selectorate Theory Some Preliminaries 1 Selectorate The individuals who could potentially decide who the leader of the country is. So in the United States the selectorate is all eligible voters. In non democratic countries the selectorate does not have to comprise the entire population. 2 Winning Coalition those members of the selectorate who are responsible for the leader being in power 3 States provide two types of goods: Public Goods Goods and services available to all members of the selectorate. Roads, Economic growth, winning wars, etc. Private Goods Goods and services available exclusively to the Winning Coalition. Money, power, prestige, etc. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

22 Selectorate Theory Assumptions Assumption 1: Leaders with large winning coalitions provide public goods. Assumption 2: Leaders with small winning coalitions provide private goods. Assumption 3: All leaders desire to stay in office. Assumption 4: Defeat in war is a negative public good. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23

23 Selectorate Theory Predictions 1.) Since all leaders desire to stay in office and wars represent a negative public good, and leaders of states with large winning coalitions provide public goods we expect that these leaders will be more selective in the wars they choose to fight. Leaders of states with large winning coalitions (usually democracies) will select into conflicts they are likely to win. Leaders of states with large winning coalitions (usually democracies) will fight harder once involved in a conflict, so they do not provide a negative public good. 2.) On the other hand, since leaders of states with small winning coalitions provide private goods to their winning coalitions they are unconcerned with the possibility of losing a war. What will their winning coalition care if a war is lost...the leader will still provide them with the monetary benefits. John N. Lee (Florida State University) Theory Summer / 23