Inequality and the European Identity
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1 Inequality and the European Identity Luxembourg Frank Cowell, LSE. March 2018
2 Overview Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
3 Agenda History what do we know about the subject? a key European Economics what do we know about the facts? income, wealth Attitudes what do we know about European opinion? Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
4 La Courbe de la Répartition de la Richesse Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
5 Pareto: a life Education and Professional: 1859 Istituto Tecnico Leardi, Casale Monferrato 1869 Doctorate, Politecnico di Torino 1870 Engineer, Italian railways 1880 Manager, Italian ironworks, San Giovanni Valdarno 1894 Chair of Political Economy, Université de Lausanne Personal: Father: Raffaele Pareto Mother: Marie Métenier Born: Paris 1848 Died: Geneva 1923 Fritz Wilfried Pareto Vilfredo Federico Pareto Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
6 La Courbe de la Répartition de la Richesse Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
7 La Courbe de la Répartition de la Richesse Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
8 A European pioneer Facts more than a botanist Model how to tackle the analysis of inequality a polymath s approach Methods of analysis Pareto s work: still prominent in economics a pioneer in statistical method Attitudes all of this matters Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
9 The Pareto coefficient Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
10 Proportion above threshold (logs) 1 F(W) Pareto today: wealth in GB Wealth (logs) W y = 1E+10x y = 7E+11x a = a = Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
11 Pareto s a today Threshold (million euro) ½ 1 2 France Germany Italy UK USA Source: Vermeulen (2014) Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
12 Share of the top 1 percent Threshold (million euro) ½ 1 2 data France Germany Italy UK USA Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
13 Inequality: a Botanist s view A wider view the botanist Lorenz curve widely used representation a graph of shares important links to economic theory Gini coefficient the most widely used inequality index close link to LC B A proportion of population 0 Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
14 Wealth, income and inequality Gini income: Gini income: Gini income: Gini assets: Gini assets: Gini assets: Gini net worth: Gini net worth: Gini net worth: Gross income Assets Net worth Gross income Assets Net worth Gross income Assets Net worth Gini income: Gini income: Gini income: Gini assets: Gini assets: Gini assets: Gini net worth: Gini net worth: Gini net worth: Gross income Assets Net worth Source: Cowell et al (2017) Gross income Assets Net worth Gross income Assets Net worth Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
15 Incomes: the top 10%, a 30-year view Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
16 Wealth: top 10% over a century Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
17 Wealth: top 1% over a century Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
18 France and UK: Transmitted wealth as % national income Source: Atkinson (2018) Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
19 UK and France Transmitted wealth as % personal wealth Source: Atkinson (2018) Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
20 How do people view inequality? In the last 10 years, have inequalities in your country increased/decreased/stayed same? Perception of inequalities, Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
21 From perceptions to preferences Perceptions of facts influence attitudes willingness to accept inequality willingness to support redistribution Preferences for redistribution influenced by multiculturalism and diversity political ideology Preferences are not exogenous or immutable cultural differences change political differences change May be associated with the phenomenon of identity the basis of recent research Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
22 Identity and social preferences What is the effect of social identity on preferences? common reference points social norms Development of a European identity should have important impact affects solidarity affects individual experiences within a wider community How to capture the identity effect? need a model of identity (Costa-Font and Cowell 2015b) Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
23 The idea of identity Social identities shape individuals' preferences define a sense of belonging to a club the club has norms (a form of externality) deviation from the norm can be painful Social identity can act as a social tie club loyalty and club benefits can affect support for the welfare state and so for redistribution Social change and identity a person may be associated with multiple groups reveal multiple identities outside changes affect role of different identities Costa-Font and Cowell (2015a) Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
24 European identity? Identifying oneself as European explains satisfaction with value of tolerance with democratic principles Development of EU institutions and functions change balance of national/european identities effects on attitudes and their expression What about attitudes to inequality? use data on attitudes to redistribution cross-checked with indicators of identity To provide evidence of this need observable identity markers make clear distinction national/european Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
25 European Values Survey Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
26 Identity: the Euro? Some European identity markers obvious? introduction of common currency made the European project salient as an experiment planned as a political, social experiment but what about as a social-science experiment? timing allows before/after views Introduction of in countries that joined EU after 2003: increased confidence in the EU reduced the importance of national pride Change in European identity common currency: increases preference for redistribution Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
27 Identity: other markers Is the identity marker good enough? reverse causality? timing? other exogenous changes? What type of exogenous events? changes in history curricula citizenship education performance in international contests (Eurovision, the Olympics) Put in these control markers some of these are strong instruments for national/eu identity EU identity is major factor in understanding preferences for redistribution Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
28 Take-away thoughts 1. History analysis of inequality born in Europe La Courbe de la Répartition de la Richesse a landmark 2. Economics is Europe s inequality profile special? compared with US, China, Russia yes an argument for Pareto as a European pioneer? 3. Attitudes preferences for redistribution associated with European identity European identity flagged by confirmed by other identity markers of nationalism Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
29 References Amoroso, L. (1938) "Vilfredo Pareto," Econometrica, 6, Atkinson, A. B. (2018) Wealth and Inheritance in Britain from 1896 to the Present. Journal of Economic Inequality, 16, forthcoming. Bowley, A. L. (1924) The Mathematical Groundwork of Economics, Oxford, Oxford University Press Cowell, F. A., Nolan, B., Olivera, J. and Van Kerm, P. (2017) "Wealth, Top Incomes and Inequality" in K. Hamilton and C. Hepburn (ed.) National Wealth, Oxford University Press. Costa-i-Font, J. and Cowell, F. A. (2015a) Social identity and redistributive preferences: a survey" Journal of Economic Surveys, 29, Costa-i-Font, J. and Cowell, F. A. (2015b) "European Identity and Redistributive Preferences" Working Paper, 5412, CESifo Cowell, F. A. and Van Kerm, P. (2015) Wealth distribution: a survey, Journal of Economic Surveys, 29, Davies, J. B.; Fortin, N. M. and Lemieux, T. (2017) Wealth inequality: Theory, measurement and decomposition Canadian Journal of Economics, 50, Pareto, V. (1896). La courbe de la répartition de la richesse. In C. Viret-Genton (Ed.), Recueil publié par la Faculté de Droit à l occasion de l exposition nationale suisse, Geneva 1896, pp Lausanne: Université de Lausanne. Pareto, V. ( ) Cours d'economie Politique, Lausanne, F. Rouge. van der Wijk, J. (1939). Inkomens- En Vermogensverdeling. Number 26 in Nederlandsch Economisch Instituut. Haarlem: De Erven F. Bohn, N.V. Vermeulen, P. (2014) "How fat is the top tail of the wealth distribution?" Working Paper Series 1692, European Central Bank. Frank Cowell: Luxembourg, March
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