The Political Economy of Refugee Migration and Foreign Aid
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1 The Political Economy of Refugee Migration and Foreign Aid
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3 The Political Economy of Refugee Migration and Foreign Aid Mathias Czaika
4 Mathias Czaika 2009 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
5 This work is dedicated to those who currently live as refugees and asylum seekers in desperate situations around the globe, whether living in a camp, a retention centre or somewhere else, but certainly in insecurity and fear. May your voices be heard and your prayers answered.
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7 Contents List of Tables List of Figures Abbreviations Acknowledgements ix xi xii xiv 1 Introduction Research objective Research outline 5 2 Forced Migration Patterns and Politics Introduction Migration characteristics International actors for refugee protection Refugee Politics 19 3 International Refugee Burdens Introduction Assessing the refugee burden to host countries Methodology of a refugee burden index Concluding remarks 40 4 Determinants of Forced Displacement: The Case of Aceh, Indonesia Introduction Conflict history and displacement in Aceh, Indonesia Theoretical background of displacements Empirical analysis of displacement in Aceh Concluding remarks 65 5 The Political Economy of Refugee Migration Introduction The Model Counter-asylum policies Concluding remarks 87 vii
8 viii Contents 6 Asylum Cooperation among Asymmetric Countries Introduction Literature review The analytical framework Asylum cooperation in the European Union Concluding remarks Refugee Movements and Aid Politics Introduction Aid and refugee migration policies Aid allocation patterns and statistics UN diplomacy and aid allocation Concluding remarks Aid Allocation and Asylum Migration Introduction Aid allocation literature review The model Comparative statics Empirical evidence Concluding remarks Refugee Movements and Aid Responsiveness Introduction Refugee movements: some policy options Empirical analysis Concluding remarks Conclusion Summary Policy implications 166 Appendix 170 Notes 181 Bibliography 192 Index 203
9 Tables 2.1 International migration stocks (2005) and flows ( ), in Correlation matrix of the RCI components Top 20 burdened countries in Top 5 intra-regionally most burdened countries in Inter-regional Refugee Burden Index in Inter-regional Refugee Burden Matrix (gross/net stocks) in Conflict and population change in the Aceh sample, Probit estimation: conflict incidence Determinants of change in village population Quantile regressions of population change Determinants of population change by conflict occurrence Simulation: aid transfers and refugee migration Asylum cooperation: equal population quota, EU Asylum cooperation: equal economic burdens, EU Sector composition of total ODA grants, 3-year average Bilateral and multilateral aid allocation Bilateral donor-specific coefficients Bivariate correlates of German ODA and explanatory variables German aid allocation Aid allocation determinants, , 18 donors, 148 recipients Categorization of aid donors 160 A.1 Specifications of the Refugee Capacity Index 170 A.2 Descriptive statistics, Aceh sample 171 A.3 Derivations of the refugee migration model 173 A.4 Descriptive statistics, EU A.5 Descriptive statistics, UN speeches sample 175 A.6 Data description and sources, UN speeches sample 175 ix
10 x Tables A.7 Descriptive statistics, German aid allocation sample 176 A.8 Data description and sources, German aid allocation sample 177 A.9 Descriptive statistics, aid panel dataset 178 A.10 Correlation matrix, aid panel dataset 179 A.11 Data definitions and sources, aid panel dataset 180
11 Figures 1.1 Global distribution of refugees, in millions Aceh districts Perceived value of displacement Cross-border migration duration of persecuted individuals The refugee migration decision: who, where, and how long Liberalization of self-reliance in the first asylum country Declining asylum recognition rate in the Western asylum country Increasing income level in the country of origin Self-financing proactive asylum policy Asylum policy among countries with asymmetric spillovers Asylum policy outcomes among countries with asymmetric costs Donor motivations of ODA provision, EU public poll, Net disbursement of ODA, OECD/DAC countries Top bilateral donor states in Regional distribution of ODA, 1996 and Asylum applications in EU countries (in 1000) 133 xi
12 Abbreviations BIS BMZ BPS CEAS CIA CRS DAC DPKO EC ECHO ELRFI ERC ERF EU FDI GAM GDPI HDI IASC ICARA ICRC IDP ILO IMF IOM NGO OAU OCHA ODA OECD OLS Bank for International Settlements Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (German Ministry for Economic Development and Cooperation) Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) Common European Asylum System Central Intelligence Agency Creditor Reporting System Development Assistance Committee Department for Peace-Keeping Operations European Commission European Community Humanitarian aid Office Ethno-Linguistic-Religious Fractionalization Index Emergency Relief Coordinator European Refugee Fund European Union Foreign Direct Investment Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Acehnese Freedom Movement) Gross Domestic Product Index Human Development Index Interagency Standing Committee International Conference on Assistance to Refugees in Africa International Committee of the Red Cross Internally Displaced Person International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund International Organization for Migration Non-Governmental Organization Organization for African Unity Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Official Development Assistance Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development Ordinary Least Squares xii
13 Abbreviations xiii PDI PFI PODES PQLI PSI RBI RBS RCI TNI TPOC UN UNDP UNHCHR UNHCR UNICEF UNRWA WB WFP Population Density Index Political Freedom Index Potensi Desa (Village Potential Census) Physical Quality of Life Index Political Stability Index Refugee Burden Index Refugee Burden-Sharing Refugee Capacity Index Tentara Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian military forces) Total Persons of Concern United Nations United Nations Development Program United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United Nations International Children s Emergency Fund United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees World Bank World Food Program
14 Acknowledgements To whom shall I give more praise and thank for HIS support than to my heavenly Father! He is and was my solid foundation in all my struggles and times of thinking, writing, and abandoning. He is and was my friend and encourager, my shining light in times of joy and doubt. I praise you, Jesus! I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Günther Schulze. His detailed and constructive comments as well as all his encouragement and understanding have provided a good basis for the present book. Furthermore, I am grateful to my (former) colleagues and friends from the University of Freiburg, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Eva Deuchert, Antonio Farfán Vallespín, Juliane Fliedner, Grischa Perino, Martin Keller, Michael Trost, Inga Müller, Amy Mayer and Marcus Marktanner for all of the discussions, collaboration, assistance, proofreading and fun. I also appreciated all of the helpful comments of the participants in the Wednesday Doktorandenseminar at the University of Freiburg. I am thankful also to Amy McDonough for proofreading this book. However, I would like to state that any errors in this thesis, be they imprecise quotations or basic misrepresentations, are unintentional and my responsibility alone. My warm thanks are due to Giseltraud Herbert for all her kindness and helpful assistance throughout the past five years. Special thanks to all of my friends from Students for Christ (SfC) for their interest, encouragement and prayers. I owe my loving thanks to my wonderful parents Hartmut and Lydia, for enabling my university education, and particularly, for their love and support throughout the years. Finally, I want to express my special thanks to my beloved wife Catheline. She helped me to concentrate on completing this thesis and supported me in many ways, especially by her prayers. Without her help, encouragement and understanding, this book could not have been completed. xiv
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